Playoffs thread

[14Red]

A couple years ago I posted that for the first time in decades elite talent was spread around the league and there were no super teams, which I felt would open a great era for the NBA with stars and teams winning big in places we aren’t used to seeing. It’s happening. I think it’s good, but the last time we really had that dynamic in the NBA was probably the mid 1970s to the rise of Bird and Magic. That half decade in the NBA was wide open, but is historically not regarded as a good time for the NBA, which even had playoff games on tape delay. Could the current NBA actually lose popularity even though more teams have realistic championship hopes and more cities have star players than probably since that pre-Bird/Magic window?

Pro basketball is evolving into what baseball is now, regional. I would agree that there is more talent now spread across the league than ever before. The networks don't like this because they want "sure" eyeballs. It takes work for the casual fan to sink their time and effort into learnng about more teams, so the old guard, Lakers, Celtics, Sixers, Warriors, Suns, Brookly (early last year) were given tv game after tv game because the nework wants a solid number. Portland/ Indiana isn't going to do that. The Nuggets, even though Jokic was a two time MVP, still flew under the radar because Denver isn't a big basketball city.
The NBA is struggling to retain fans because the game keeps changing and the league allows the players to do controversial things and make controversial comments. The other issue the NBA has is less and less American stars. You can argue now that some of the leagues top players - Jokic, Doncic, Embiid, Giannis are all foreign born players.

 

[nwwarrior09]

From a few different things I've read, I'd say about 15% of yearly NBA revenue is internationally driven, I.e. largely off of foreign League Pass subscribers and deals with major foreign broadcasting operations, primarily in East Asia and increasingly in Europe. That percentage of the pie is probably going to continue to grow, especially if the French kid in the draft this year ends up being a major hit.

American viewership is not what it was in the 80s and 90s, but it is still relatively flat since the fall off that occurred over the few years after the first Jordan retirement.

 

[nwwarrior09]

Cliffsnotes: for the NBA and way it's trending with increasing international prospects and star players...adding viewers is going to happen abroad, not domestically.

Domestic viewership is pretty even barring 1) a major market team being a real contender or 2) having a few rising domestic stars that preferably play for one of 5-10 larger market teams.

 

[14Red]

From a few different things I've read, I'd say about 15% of yearly NBA revenue is internationally driven, I.e. largely off of foreign League Pass subscribers and deals with major foreign broadcasting operations, primarily in East Asia and increasingly in Europe. That percentage of the pie is probably going to continue to grow, especially if the French kid in the draft this year ends up being a major hit.

American viewership is not what it was in the 80s and 90s, but it is still relatively flat since the fall off that occurred over the few years after the first Jordan retirement.

The international movement is here and it's not going anywhere. The evolution of the international player has been incredible over the last 25 years. Toni Kucoc was kind of the first, then Detlef Schremph, who can forget Yao Ming, of course probably the best before Jokic is Dirk Nowitski.
The biggest issue for the NBA is how do you market a league who's best players are foreign? Baseball is still struggling with this. This again may be yet another reason why the NFL is so popular. Many Americans simply will not support foreign players. Look at the numbers for tennis, golf, etc. Baseball is becoming so Latin dominated, and currently THE best player in baseball is Japanese. That just does not fly to the masses here.

 

[Orin Swift]

The international movement is here and it's not going anywhere. The evolution of the international player has been incredible over the last 25 years. Toni Kucoc was kind of the first, then Detlef Schremph, who can forget Yao Ming, of course probably the best before Jokic is Dirk Nowitski.
The biggest issue for the NBA is how do you market a league who's best players are foreign? Baseball is still struggling with this. This again may be yet another reason why the NFL is so popular. Many Americans simply will not support foreign players. Look at the numbers for tennis, golf, etc. Baseball is becoming so Latin dominated, and currently THE best player in baseball is Japanese. That just does not fly to the masses here.

Hakeem finished 7th in MVP voting the year before Kukoc was even drafted. If you don’t want to include Hakeem because he went to Houston than I think Drazen Petrovic would have been the catalyst over Kukoc. Shorter career due to an untimely death, but he could light up the scoreboard.

Also, one of the great (and there are many great ones) what if’s in NBA history was what if the Soviets allowed the elder Sabobis play in the US when he was originally drafted in ‘86 (too young in ‘85 and the pick was voided)? He would have never been rushed back and likely been healthy + played his prime years in the NBA instead of his “rookie” season coming at 31.

 

[cjb5656]

Detlef Schrempf was the first Euro of any significance I remember. He was the height of a power forward, but he could handle the ball like a guard and shoot from the outside. He basically set the Euro template that is now fairly prolific in the NBA. Highly skilled and fundamentally sound tall players.

 

[nwwarrior09]

Also, one of the great (and there are many great ones) what if’s in NBA history was what if the Soviets allowed the elder Sabobis play in the US when he was originally drafted in ‘86 (too young in ‘85 and the pick was voided)? He would have never been rushed back and likely been healthy + played his prime years in the NBA instead of his “rookie” season coming at 31.

Totally different eras in terms of style of play, but in his time and prime daddy Sabonis probably had a lot of parallels to the Joker's impact in the present. Highly skilled big guy with playmaking skills and some floor stretching ability at a time when the prototype big was a back to the basket player.

It's a shame he didn't reach the states until he was already in his 30s and had had some significant injury problems. In his prime years he racked up one of the best professional European careers ever and a whole lot of championships across several leagues. Pre-1992 NBA pros entering the fold for the USA, he was voted the 3rd best FIBA player ever (Drazen and an older Soviet player).

 

[14Red]

Hakeem finished 7th in MVP voting the year before Kukoc was even drafted. If you don’t want to include Hakeem because he went to Houston than I think Drazen Petrovic would have been the catalyst over Kukoc. Shorter career due to an untimely death, but he could light up the scoreboard.

Also, one of the great (and there are many great ones) what if’s in NBA history was what if the Soviets allowed the elder Sabobis play in the US when he was originally drafted in ‘86 (too young in ‘85 and the pick was voided)? He would have never been rushed back and likely been healthy + played his prime years in the NBA instead of his “rookie” season coming at 31.

Oh my how could I forget the Dream. Dream is a little unique in that he was a star at Houston before his NBA days. Phi Slamma Jamma. Many of today's foreign players are unknows because they don't go to American colleges. I don't know a think about this kid projected to be the next's best this year. We don't know who's he's played or much about him other than that peopel are saying

Totally different eras in terms of style of play, but in his time and prime daddy Sabonis probably had a lot of parallels to the Joker's impact in the present. Highly skilled big guy with playmaking skills and some floor stretching ability at a time when the prototype big was a back to the basket player.

It's a shame he didn't reach the states until he was already in his 30s and had had some significant injury problems. In his prime years he racked up one of the best professional European careers ever and a whole lot of championships across several leagues. Pre-1992 NBA pros entering the fold for the USA, he was voted the 3rd best FIBA player ever (Drazen and an older Soviet player).

Yes, Sabonis was well past his prime before he showed up in the NBA. He was a heck of a passer. One advantage Jokic has over the old school centers is overall, the center position is smaller than it's been in decades. Coming off the finals, Bam Adebayo was the Heat's center at 6'9". Al Horford plays center and he's 6'9". There are very few true 7 ft centers anymore becuase the position has changed to more of a perimeter defender / shooter. I feel this has been a big advatage to our last 3 MVPs in Jokic and Embiid. They are truly skilled enough that their teams allow them to stay as the traditional center position. Not all teams do that anymore.

 

[Orin Swift]

Oh my how could I forget the Dream. Dream is a little unique in that he was a star at Houston before his NBA days. Phi Slamma Jamma. Many of today's foreign players are unknows because they don't go to American colleges. I don't know a think about this kid projected to be the next's best this year. We don't know who's he's played or much about him other than that peopel are saying

We know plenty about who he has played and even more about him. Every one of his games has been filmed both professionally and amateur for the last 2.5 years. It’s 2023. The internet is accessible on your phone. This isn’t 1985 lol. Another one of those bizarre things you throw into a post that make zero sense.

 

[14Red]

We know plenty about who he has played and even more about him. Every one of his games has been filmed both professionally and amateur for the last 2.5 years. It’s 2023. The internet is accessible on your phone. This isn’t 1985 lol. Another one of those bizarre things you throw into a post that make zero sense.

I don't think there is any substantial proof he's played against anything near the competition he's going to see, let alone even American college ball. As much as the internet is used for information, it's also used for marketing and I will believe he's as good as they say when I see him playing NBA games. He's incredibly skinny and that doesn't go well in the NBA. How many guys have we seen like this who get projected highly fall flat on their face. BTW, Chet Holmgren, the kid at OKC who was drafted last year, same thing. Skinny.

 

[Orin Swift]

I don't think there is any substantial proof he's played against anything near the competition he's going to see, let alone even American college ball. As much as the internet is used for information, it's also used for marketing and I will believe he's as good as they say when I see him playing NBA games. He's incredibly skinny and that doesn't go well in the NBA. How many guys have we seen like this who get projected highly fall flat on their face. BTW, Chet Holmgren, the kid at OKC who was drafted last year, same thing. Skinny.

Well duh. That’s the case for anyone coming into the NBA. It’s the best league in the world by a substantial amount. That doesn’t mean “we” don’t know who he has been playing against or don’t know much about him. Maybe you don’t.

 

[nwwarrior09]

Grown men vs. boys. The better foreign league teams, especially the ones that do dual leagues with EuroLeague or EuroCup, would mop 90-95% of D1 college teams. You'd have to have several future NBA players (i.e. 2014-15 UK) to make up for the better teams having dudes that have 5-10 years of strength maturity on them.

The two best players on a .500 team in the French Pro A League, SIG Strasbourg, were Marcus Keene and Matt Mitchell. Keene is a 28 year old undersized PG that led NCAA D1 in scoring at 30 ppg his last year at Central Michigan. Mitchell is a 24 year old that was Mountain West POY at San Diego State his last year in college. Those two dudes are going to be better than the two best players on probably 95% of D1 teams.

The kid averaged roughly 27.5 ppg and 18 rpg against that middle of the pack French team this last year. He would have obliterated college ball. Way, way bigger prospect than the dude from Gonzaga at this stage.

 

[nwwarrior09]

I seem to recall this a lot when Doncic was entering the draft. Heard a lot of "high floor, low ceiling", "not that athletic", etc., comments. He was a force against the best European competition and was a major player the moment he stepped on the court in the NBA.

 

[14Red]

Grown men vs. boys. The better foreign league teams, especially the ones that do dual leagues with EuroLeague or EuroCup, would mop 90-95% of D1 college teams. You'd have to have several future NBA players (i.e. 2014-15 UK) to make up for the better teams having dudes that have 5-10 years of strength maturity on them.

The two best players on a .500 team in the French Pro A League, SIG Strasbourg, were Marcus Keene and Matt Mitchell. Keene is a 28 year old undersized PG that led NCAA D1 in scoring at 30 ppg his last year at Central Michigan. Mitchell is a 24 year old that was Mountain West POY at San Diego State his last year in college. Those two dudes are going to be better than the two best players on probably 95% of D1 teams.

The kid averaged roughly 27.5 ppg and 18 rpg against that middle of the pack French team this last year. He would have obliterated college ball. Way, way bigger prospect than the dude from Gonzaga at this stage.

Then why aren't they in the NBA? I think you may have a few top notch players who are playing over there for whatever reason, but overall, I'd put our D1's up against most foreign teams. Yes, age / experience becomes a factor, which is the odd trend in the NBA getting younger because for the most part, guys are at their peak between 25-30.

 

[14Red]

I seem to recall this a lot when Doncic was entering the draft. Heard a lot of "high floor, low ceiling", "not that athletic", etc., comments. He was a force against the best European competition and was a major player the moment he stepped on the court in the NBA.

Interesting you bring him up. He's a great "individual" talent, but I don't think A. he can win in the NBA and B. He'll be around long. He's way too ball dominant, as we've seen with James Harden and LeBron at times in his career, that style doesn't win big. I've never seen the big deal with Luka, and it's apparent alot of guys don't like to play with him.

 

[14Red]

Well duh. That’s the case for anyone coming into the NBA. It’s the best league in the world by a substantial amount. That doesn’t mean “we” don’t know who he has been playing against or don’t know much about him. Maybe you don’t.

I guess my bigger issue is this constant feeding of "best ever" crap we get year after year after year. We get this every year with college QB's. We the media/ agencies builds these guys up and then we watch most fall flat on their face. Just look at the NBA draft the last 10 years and all the names we don't recognize anymore? It amazes me that NBA teams pick guys based on what they "may" become and not what they are.

 

[nwwarrior09]

Interesting you bring him up. He's a great "individual" talent, but I don't think A. he can win in the NBA and B. He'll be around long. He's way too ball dominant, as we've seen with James Harden and LeBron at times in his career, that style doesn't win big. I've never seen the big deal with Luka, and it's apparent alot of guys don't like to play with him.

I think he actually probably should be better than he is. A different place I chat at has a lot of basketball guys from Dallas/Fort Worth, and they talk often about things that agitate them about him, especially his physique.

I'd never really noticed before, but his weight fluctuates a lot (think "fat" Harden from a few years ago). He seems to be a big party boy when stateside and takes fitness a lot more seriously during the intervals when there's national team competition. By far the best he looks physically is when he's playing for Slovenia.

 

[Orin Swift]

I guess my bigger issue is this constant feeding of "best ever" crap we get year after year after year. We get this every year with college QB's. We the media/ agencies builds these guys up and then we watch most fall flat on their face. Just look at the NBA draft the last 10 years and all the names we don't recognize anymore? It amazes me that NBA teams pick guys based on what they "may" become and not what they are.

Then stop watching sports. It’s been happening since people started watching sports thousands of years ago.

 

[nwwarrior09]

I guess my bigger issue is this constant feeding of "best ever" crap we get year after year after year. We get this every year with college QB's. We the media/ agencies builds these guys up and then we watch most fall flat on their face. Just look at the NBA draft the last 10 years and all the names we don't recognize anymore? It amazes me that NBA teams pick guys based on what they "may" become and not what they are.

I actually feel like the hit rate in the top 3-4 picks of the draft has been very good over the last 5-6 years. Probably the best for as far back as I can remember. The only "bad" looking picks at the top that come to mind for me are Marvin Bagley (seems like a solid/okay player so far), and James Wiseman, who I'd argue hasn't had the best individual opportunities in his early career.

I feel like a lot more guys bombed in the 2000s and early 2010s than have in more recent years.

 

[nwwarrior09]

I actually feel like the hit rate in the top 3-4 picks of the draft has been very good over the last 5-6 years. Probably the best for as far back as I can remember. The only "bad" looking picks at the top that come to mind for me are Marvin Bagley (seems like a solid/okay player so far), and James Wiseman, who I'd argue hasn't had the best individual opportunities in his early career.

I feel like a lot more guys bombed in the 2000s and early 2010s than have in more recent years.

I'd add this IMO probably has more to do with quality of play improving at a dramatic pace overseas (probably the biggest "Dream Team" legacy from 1992 Barcelona). The growth rate in both player development and in the quality of teams in the bigger foreign leagues has shot through the roof.

 

[Mr. Slippery]

I'd add this IMO probably has more to do with quality of play improving at a dramatic pace overseas (probably the biggest "Dream Team" legacy from 1992 Barcelona). The growth rate in both player development and in the quality of teams in the bigger foreign leagues has shot through the roof.

No doubt about it. The "Dream Team's" participation in the '92 Olympics significantly accelerated the process of globalizing the sport itself as well as the NBA.

The fall of the Soviet Union and its sphere of influence the previous year also helped. That cut a lot of the red tape for players from those countries (Russia, the Balkan countries, the Baltic states, etc) as well as cutting some red tape for professional organizations coming into that part of the world to find talent in those countries.

 

[14Red]

Then stop watching sports. It’s been happening since people started watching sports thousands of years ago.

You must have amnesia. In the 80's some top draft picks sat for a year or two before playing. Kobe didn't start as a rookie? Rookies were brought in to add to the franchise or be a good piece. Today guys are drafted an expected to lead teams. Case in point, Aaron Gordon and Andrew Wiggins. Two players who were expected to be great and lead their franchises to the glory days. Both are on their second teams now and are not their teams leading player.

 

[nwwarrior09]

Both of those guys ended up being key pieces on teams that won championships.

Andrew Wiggins especially was a very hyped draft prospect due to his athleticism...I recall a lot of high flyer comparisons to players like Vince Carter, Tracy McGrady, and Clyde Drexler. He has not been that caliber of player, but he has been a good player that's averaged about 19 ppg for his career and whose been an all-star. He was arguably the Warriors 2nd best/most important piece during their last championship run due to the injury issues that group had.

 

[Orin Swift]

You must have amnesia. In the 80's some top draft picks sat for a year or two before playing. Kobe didn't start as a rookie? Rookies were brought in to add to the franchise or be a good piece. Today guys are drafted an expected to lead teams. Case in point, Aaron Gordon and Andrew Wiggins. Two players who were expected to be great and lead their franchises to the glory days. Both are on their second teams now and are not their teams leading player.

No amnesia but you certainly have a penchant for making things up.

For every Kobe who sat as a rookie I can name you a Magic Johnson, Larry Bird, Michael Jordan, Joe Dumars, Isiah Thomas, Derrick Coleman, AI, etc. etc.

No one thought Aaron Gordon nor Andrew Wiggins, after their year in college, we’re going to lead their franchises to the glory days. Theres a reason neither were drafted #1 in an uncertain draft and a reason why Wiggins was traded before putting on a jersey. Provide, at minimum, 2 credible sources for each player calling them franchise changing players. Remember, it has to be while they are going through the draft process since that’s the parameter you put on this discussion.

 

[14Red]

No amnesia but you certainly have a penchant for making things up.

For every Kobe who sat as a rookie I can name you a Magic Johnson, Larry Bird, Michael Jordan, Joe Dumars, Isiah Thomas, Derrick Coleman, AI, etc. etc.

No one thought Aaron Gordon nor Andrew Wiggins, after their year in college, we’re going to lead their franchises to the glory days. Theres a reason neither were drafted #1 in an uncertain draft and a reason why Wiggins was traded before putting on a jersey. Provide, at minimum, 2 credible sources for each player calling them franchise changing players. Remember, it has to be while they are going through the draft process since that’s the parameter you put on this discussion.

Andrew Wiggins was THE #1 PICK!!!! Most years there are not guys who are franchise players, but the league and the media, for shock value make it that way. Anthony Edwards, Anthony Bennett, Markelle Fultz...Let's just let Wembyana get on a team, and perform a season or two before we anoint him as a franchise player.

 

[nwwarrior09]

From what I remember I'd say Andrew Wiggins was probably one of the 10 most hyped prospects going back to the LeBron draft.

LeBron, Carmelo, Oden, KD, Rose, Wall, Anthony Davis, Wiggins, Simmons, Holmgren, maybe Ayton and Cunningham? Maybe 5-6 of those guys would consistently go ahead of Wiggins. He'd have gone #1 or been very seriously considered to go #1 most years over the last 20 years.

 

[Orin Swift]

From what I remember I'd say Andrew Wiggins was probably one of the 10 most hyped prospects going back to the LeBron draft.

LeBron, Carmelo, Oden, KD, Rose, Wall, Anthony Davis, Wiggins, Simmons, Holmgren, maybe Ayton and Cunningham? Maybe 5-6 of those guys would consistently go ahead of Wiggins. He'd have gone #1 or been very seriously considered to go #1 most years over the last 20 years.

I remember a lot of that talk during his high school days, true. Not so much during/after his season at Kansas.

Also definitely forgot Wiggins went first. Thought Embiid went that year. Okay, 14Red, maybe I suffer from some amnesia.

 

[nwwarrior09]

I remember a lot of that talk during his high school days, true. Not so much during/after his season at Kansas.

Also definitely forgot Wiggins went first. Thought Embiid went that year. Okay, 14Red, maybe I suffer from some amnesia.

I do remember he wasn't quite to the level of what was loftily expected. Definitely good, but not all-world.

 

[nwwarrior09]

On my list of "most hyped" since LeBron, at this juncture Wembanyama has to be top 3-4 in hype. LeBron is the only one that I think for sure is ahead of him.

He led the "A" league in France in scoring, rebounding, blocks, and minutes played as an 18-19 year old and was the league MVP. That's rare air with how European teams operate. I'd be surprised if anyone other than Luka has ever had as big of a bang under the age of 20 across the pond, with the difference being this dude is 7'3 or taller.

 

[nwwarrior09]

I do remember he wasn't quite to the level of what was loftily expected. Definitely good, but not all-world.

Sidenote; speaking of not meeting expectations, anyone remember Harrison Barnes? Pretty sure he was the consensus #1 recruit in his class coming out of high school.

Instead of being a one-and-done and the #1 overall pick, he spent two years at UNC and got picked mid-lottery. Pretty solid but far from outstanding career so far outside of being a starter on a Warriors' championship team.