It is interesting because in, say, 5-6 years there will probably be one Division 1 school in Parma, and the GLC might not be a great place for them. We shall see. GCC makes sense at that size and location, unless Parma continues shrinking. I'd think that shrinkage would level off a bit.
Unless Parma City Schools does something weird and sends nearly all the Parma Senior kids to one of the remaining schools, both Valley Forge and Normandy could move up to D1 next year. Just by splitting Parma's enrollment figures in half, it would boost Valley Forge to 641 and Normandy to 622. I may have to look it up, but I believe the district's enrollment has been leveling off, so I don't think there will be a continued big drop because the district is seeing big gains in non-white students.
I don't see any way that Fairview is going to want to stick it out, especially since the only schools it has been able to compete with in football are Parma and Normandy (it hasn't beaten any other GLC school outside those two since joining the league three years ago). Parma is gone and Normandy will absorb probably half of Parma's roster/students and its a program that can't possibly get worse. Fairview is not Kirtland, so there isn't a reason, outside proximity, for a D5 to be competing in a football league that will have a couple of D1s (and the rest D2 and D3).
There seems like an easy solution for them. Fairview could rejoin some of their previous conference members in the CVC Metro to bring that up to seven schools.
Westlake, Lakewood, North Olmsted, Bay, Rocky River, Buckeye are all D2/D3 enrollment and have an attractive block to work with for some of the smaller SWC schools. Midview, the smallest school in the SWC and probably the one that is most likely to continue to fall further behind in enrollment, is probably in need of a better football situation. I'm not sure either Amherst or Olmsted Falls (tied for the next smallest enrollment) would leave, but it could make competitive sense for Amherst, though it would be less ideal for travel; Olmsted Falls has been very competitive in football so that wouldn't be the reason, but proximity is a wash and they would be closer in size compared to the SWC.
Either way, if the SWC were to lose just Midview to the new GLC, it could turn to Lorain to fill that spot and the two Parma schools can join the new misfits in the LEL. If the SWC were to lose Midview and one of Amherst/Olmsted Falls, it could then turn to the two Parma schools to bring it back to eight. Once the Parma schools do go down to one, that would then conceivably open the door again for Lorain.
Even if the SWC doesn't lose anybody to the core six of the GLC, I think those schools will still distance themselves from Parma. They can simply keep Elyria Catholic and Holy Name to make eight.
If, though, the GLC would grab a couple SWC schools and Elyria Catholic and Holy Name are nudged out, I think they would be able to find a spot in the Crown (or a new version of the NCL). Ed's, Iggy, Hoban can stay independent, but even with them not included, seems like a two-division Crown/NCL should be doable and more beneficial then having a bunch of independent Catholic schools.
Big: Walsh, Benedictine, St. Vincent-St. Mary, NDCL, Padua, VASJ (for now with Rotsky)
Small: Holy Name, Lake Catholic, Gilmour, Cleveland Central Catholic, Elyria Catholic
I left the GCC unchanged and who knows what will ultimately happen, but the core five there (Mentor, Solon, Strongsville, Brunswick, Medina) have all been in the same league with each other for 10-15 years and it seems like they are in it together for the long haul now that they stayed together and got the league back to eight. Shaker, Euclid and Cleveland Heights should hold it together for the foreseeable future.
Maybe the Suburban will try to get Solon now that they are D2, but would Solon jump to a league that blackballed them for the past decade, when the GCC now seems stable? Even if Solon were to leave, the GCC should be fine at 7.
Long story short, I'll put my money on the Parma consolidation being the straw that breaks the camel's back at least in terms of the 12 school, two division set up in the GLC in one way or another, which could put some other minor changes into effect. But I doubt it will create any full scale league collapses, just some more musical chairs.
www.news5cleveland.com
