Hammerdrill
Well-known member
Irrelevant. Look up a SOS listing, there a lots of teams who play a worse schedule.
Ohio State v Michigan
- Thread starter LCL
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Orin Swift
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nwwarrior09
Well-known member
Might actually have a decided advantage IMO against their offensive line. They haven't been anywhere near as dominant as the last couple years, and have looked very vulnerable at times at the tackle positions.
Their starting left tackle was out against Maryland (potentially back this week?) and his backup went down with a noticeable knee or lower leg injury yesterday.
nwwarrior09
Well-known member
Roman Wilson's injury yesterday IMO is a very big deal for Michigan's offense if he ends up being out with a concussion.
Left the Maryland game after taking a big hit head on on a post route, and they had him out of pads and in street clothes after.
Left the Maryland game after taking a big hit head on on a post route, and they had him out of pads and in street clothes after.
Spartacus1987
Well-known member
They have looked vulnerable vs true speed rushers. OSU doesn’t have a pure speed rusher on their roster.
Orin Swift
Well-known member
You’ve watched every Michigan game? I haven’t so it’s a genuine question.
Orin Swift
Well-known member
Moore said post game that Henderson (starting LT) was held out for precautionary reasons and should be back for The Game.
Stirred not Shaken
Well-known member
Field position is very important with TTUN with a running offense important to make them go length of the field, Mirco needs to have a good game. One other factor is discipline (the little things) Harbaugh sucks, but I would give the edge to TTUN. No personal fouls like Scott had last year, lack of execution on a fake punt, play physical but keep your cool.
Orin Swift
Well-known member
As of tomorrow, it will have been one month since JJ McCarthy has thrown a touchdown pass. His last was October 21st against Michigan State. JJ looked hobbled against Maryland attempting just 1 non-sack rushing attempt. He completed just 52% of his passes and has his first interception since non conference play.
Knowles cannot allow those big passing plays again this year.
Knowles cannot allow those big passing plays again this year.
Spartacus1987
Well-known member
Only the games where the opposing team had a pulse
wolves82
Highly Respected Expert
bob99 said it on page 1 of this thread, but the thing I have heard/read/seen is that the UM O-line is a notch below what it was last year. Rushing yards per game and per attempt are down quite a bit. OSU D-line is a notch above last year. OSU defense in general will bend not break - solid bunch.
Also, IMO McCarthy is substantially overrated. His legs are dangerous, but I think a lot of his stats were benefiting from the insider knowledge of the D that was called. I look for him to be exposed as a bit of a fraud Saturday.
OSU 24, UM 13. Let's go!
Also, IMO McCarthy is substantially overrated. His legs are dangerous, but I think a lot of his stats were benefiting from the insider knowledge of the D that was called. I look for him to be exposed as a bit of a fraud Saturday.
OSU 24, UM 13. Let's go!
Kyle McCord is the question and the ultimate answer.
Will Ohio St beat scUM? Yes, if Kyle McCord plays his best game.
The scUM defense, like all defenses, gives you something, and what they give you is the short passing game. You can drive the ball if you can execute the short pass. But once you get to the redzone, the QB is going to have to make the correct read and deliver the ball in a tight window. Otherwise, you are kicking FGs. But Stover, Egbuka, Marv, and Flemming at less than 10 yards will be there - if McCord delivers the ball. 32 as a checkdown could be huge.
Two other things will help McCord. Even tho scUM does not allow opponents to complete balls behind the safeties, other teams do not have 18. Ohio St should throw it up to him deep when/if there is no-safety-over man to the field side. The other help is 32 running the ball successfully. I expect that 32 could have an early stat line something like 6 yards on 7 carries, but keep giving it to him and eventually he will get loose. After a few of those, McCord should have more room to throw.
So, this way of looking at the game assumes that Ohio St will be able to limit scoring and force kicks with their defense, that the Buckeyes will get a few explosive runs and deep completions while moving the ball between the 20s with short passing, and that OSU will not be able to score by running the ball in the redzone. I think those assumptions are reasonable given how the OSU offense and the scUM defense has performed. If those assumptions hold true, Ohio State's ability to score TDs will rest on how good McCord is in terms of the short passing game to get to the redzone, and score once they get there.
So, most likely, he is the question and he will give us the answer. FWIW
Will Ohio St beat scUM? Yes, if Kyle McCord plays his best game.
The scUM defense, like all defenses, gives you something, and what they give you is the short passing game. You can drive the ball if you can execute the short pass. But once you get to the redzone, the QB is going to have to make the correct read and deliver the ball in a tight window. Otherwise, you are kicking FGs. But Stover, Egbuka, Marv, and Flemming at less than 10 yards will be there - if McCord delivers the ball. 32 as a checkdown could be huge.
Two other things will help McCord. Even tho scUM does not allow opponents to complete balls behind the safeties, other teams do not have 18. Ohio St should throw it up to him deep when/if there is no-safety-over man to the field side. The other help is 32 running the ball successfully. I expect that 32 could have an early stat line something like 6 yards on 7 carries, but keep giving it to him and eventually he will get loose. After a few of those, McCord should have more room to throw.
So, this way of looking at the game assumes that Ohio St will be able to limit scoring and force kicks with their defense, that the Buckeyes will get a few explosive runs and deep completions while moving the ball between the 20s with short passing, and that OSU will not be able to score by running the ball in the redzone. I think those assumptions are reasonable given how the OSU offense and the scUM defense has performed. If those assumptions hold true, Ohio State's ability to score TDs will rest on how good McCord is in terms of the short passing game to get to the redzone, and score once they get there.
So, most likely, he is the question and he will give us the answer. FWIW
nwwarrior09
Well-known member
Field position requires Parker Fleming and his specialists to have a gaffe free game.
My biggest concern would probably be having a big momentum special teams gaffe like failing to execute a fake punt or having the punter incorrectly "read" to run.
Michigan nearly (and honestly, should've) lost to Illinois last year at home one week before The Game. McCarthy didn't play well in that game either (he had his lowest QB rating of the season). He bounced back against OSU.
Blowing a 23-3 lead against Maryland is concerning, but I feel like it was more due to "playing not to lose" with a lead rather than simply getting outplayed over a full game.
Obviously the circumstances are different this year, but Michigan's confidence and energy will be as high as ever going into Saturday at home.
Blowing a 23-3 lead against Maryland is concerning, but I feel like it was more due to "playing not to lose" with a lead rather than simply getting outplayed over a full game.
Obviously the circumstances are different this year, but Michigan's confidence and energy will be as high as ever going into Saturday at home.
Orin Swift
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Stirred not Shaken
Well-known member
This, OSU will get TTUN's best shot, hopefully OSU responds likewise.
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All the pressure is on Ohio State if you think about it. The whole Buckeye fanbase and much of the nation has been accusing Michigan of being artificially good. All these folks want Michigan kept out of the playoff. Ohio State is the only one who can make that possible, since God knows Iowa will get knocked around in Indy more than the pins in The Dude and Walter’s bowling tournament.
A situation has been created where the Wolverines are out for blood. How fitting then, that a team already cloaked in scarlet comes into the predator’s den like a lamb being led to slaughter, made to answer for the high crimes of their not-for-long leaders pressuring Petitti into punishing Jim Harbaugh. Michigan will be playing fast and loose, out for revenge on a team it has hammered twice in a row.
All the pressure will be on Ohio State to respond. Pressure makes diamonds. It also bursts pipes, which results in dreams and careers being swept away in a flood of failure.
We shall see who prevails.
A situation has been created where the Wolverines are out for blood. How fitting then, that a team already cloaked in scarlet comes into the predator’s den like a lamb being led to slaughter, made to answer for the high crimes of their not-for-long leaders pressuring Petitti into punishing Jim Harbaugh. Michigan will be playing fast and loose, out for revenge on a team it has hammered twice in a row.
All the pressure will be on Ohio State to respond. Pressure makes diamonds. It also bursts pipes, which results in dreams and careers being swept away in a flood of failure.
We shall see who prevails.
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Stirred not Shaken
Well-known member
Disagree sure Honda has to play well but to do so the line has to give him time, and OSU has to have a running game something that was missing last year. OSU had the best QB in football last year and certainly better QB play than TTUN has had the last 2 years but lost. The defense has to stop TTUN running game without gambling to do so. Line play offensively and defensively is always the difference in this game, I don't care how good your receivers are if the QB is laying on his back.
Spartacus1987
Well-known member
On my podcast I officially picked OSU 20-13. I think Treveyon will be the difference. OSU statistically is a better offense with Treveyon playing than Michigan is.
Auggie
Well-known member
From the OSU thread:
I agree the X factor for tOSU is Henderson. The UM safeties have to be available to help on coverage for not only Harrison Jr but also Stover and now Egbuka so they will not always be in the best position for the correct pursuit angle if he busts into the 2nd level. The announcers talked about this during the Rutgers game and we have seen it quite a bit the 2nd half of the year. Probably the most famous example of this is Elliot's run through the heart of the south, the Bama safety was so worried about covering the WR on a slant he was way out of position when Elliot blew by the contain:
For UM I think the X factor has to be their RB tandem of Corum and Edwards. Still think the LBs for tOSU are the weak link on their defense and I can see these guys getting 30-40 touches between the two of them. The MO the past few weeks for UM is to run the ball and eat clock, limit the mistakes and just have the big OL bully the other team's DL. Here is a great breakdown of this attack and the worries tOSU should have trying to defend with LBs that get caught up in the wash or over pursue:
I agree the X factor for tOSU is Henderson. The UM safeties have to be available to help on coverage for not only Harrison Jr but also Stover and now Egbuka so they will not always be in the best position for the correct pursuit angle if he busts into the 2nd level. The announcers talked about this during the Rutgers game and we have seen it quite a bit the 2nd half of the year. Probably the most famous example of this is Elliot's run through the heart of the south, the Bama safety was so worried about covering the WR on a slant he was way out of position when Elliot blew by the contain:
For UM I think the X factor has to be their RB tandem of Corum and Edwards. Still think the LBs for tOSU are the weak link on their defense and I can see these guys getting 30-40 touches between the two of them. The MO the past few weeks for UM is to run the ball and eat clock, limit the mistakes and just have the big OL bully the other team's DL. Here is a great breakdown of this attack and the worries tOSU should have trying to defend with LBs that get caught up in the wash or over pursue:
Hammerdrill
Well-known member
Yep. Even in 21, Stroud had a tremendous game, yet we lost.
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I never discuss, or bring up, trench play because it is like talking about the probability of the sun rising in the east.
If you can't block or tackle, it's hard to win football games, so assuming you can do those things somewhat competently...
If you peruse fan sites, you will see 1000 guys saying, "that QB isn't good if he is pressured" - which is true of every Hall of Fame QB. Lol. Completion % goes down when a 330 lbs monster has a hold of you. Who would have thunk?
The great QBs simply make a few more plays under pressure than others do and can take advantage of pressure schemes better.
Another way to consider what I'm getting at is to look at each team's offensive weapons in light of the fact that both of these defenses are excellent.
The team that exploits their weapons better wins. For Ohio St, how well 32 runs the ball is an OL question (and a play-calling one to a lesser extent), but getting the ball in the air to 32, 18, 2, 4, 6, and 17 is a QB issue (assuming competent protection - to @Stirred not Shaken 's point).
Day can help his QB. Last year Day insisted on running into loaded boxes because the "not tough" propaganda got to him. 5 Orlando Paces can't block 7 or 8. Lol
Start the game throwing on 1st and 10 and 3rd or 4th and short - then try for 50% pass on every down after that. If they can't steal signs, lol, and are unsure of run or pass, all the weapons are available for max exploitation
The team that exploits their weapons better wins. For Ohio St, how well 32 runs the ball is an OL question (and a play-calling one to a lesser extent), but getting the ball in the air to 32, 18, 2, 4, 6, and 17 is a QB issue (assuming competent protection - to @Stirred not Shaken 's point).
Day can help his QB. Last year Day insisted on running into loaded boxes because the "not tough" propaganda got to him. 5 Orlando Paces can't block 7 or 8. Lol
Start the game throwing on 1st and 10 and 3rd or 4th and short - then try for 50% pass on every down after that. If they can't steal signs, lol, and are unsure of run or pass, all the weapons are available for max exploitation
nwwarrior09
Well-known member
Man Harbaugh is such a weird lol. What a goofball. When talking about the state of his team in his presser this morning, he zipped this gem of a zinger: "I like my locker rooms like my mom's bathing suits...in one piece." 
wolves82
Highly Respected Expert
Please do not take this the wrong way, but a female poet hacked your account.
eastisbest
Well-known member
eastisbest
Well-known member
Politically and motivationally, OSU led a charge here that screwed the pooch. Not being on the sideline means little. Its home game. Crowd isn't going to get in the way of game management for UM. They even stole Day's lame rallying cry and that was no accident either. Deck is stacked against OSU and it's largely their fault.