Midwest Athletic Conference 2021

bigkat

Well-known member
DSJ/Park: Both under. If DSJ beats Parkway, they'll match 2 wins. I think they beat Jefferson.

Minster: Over. They are just young. 5 wins i think is doable

Fort Recovery: Under. Their ceiling could be matching 4 wins. But for now under.

Anna: I think Anna could potentially match 5 wins so I think that's a push.

St Henry: if they dont match 6 wins, then itll be under for them.

New Bremen/ Versailles: Bremen will match 7 wins imo the wild card is the Marion (Indiana) game which could make them under 7. Versailles will be over 7.

Coldwater: Over. 9-1 with a loss to Marion. Still a shame Versailles isnt on the schedule.

Marion Local: Over
as far as i know, Minster just has 9 games scheduled?
 

StateChampion2012

Well-known member
as far as i know, Minster just has 9 games scheduled?
Eagle fan has this for week 2 openings:

Belpre
Cincinnati Clark Montessori
Cleveland East Technical
Cleveland Lincoln West
Dayton Meadowdale
Minster
Wickliffe


In Indiana theres 2 options:

Greenfield-Central: Greenfield-Central (homestead.com)
Thats a much bigger school than Minster in the Indianapolis area.

Washington: Washington (homestead.com)
Washington is a doable game if all else fails. They are in southwest Indiana. Could have a Neutral site game at like the Butler Bowl or somewhere else in the Indianapolis area.
 

thavoice

Well-known member
MAC raises their football prices a buck this year to $7 for presale, and $8 at the gate.

First increase in ten years.

Also, Coldwater (for basketball) will no longer offer reserved season tickets. There are 400 seats in the reserved section and they never approached 200 so they are doing away with it because technically that means 400 seats in the middle would be empty if GA didnt sit in the reserved section
 

serpico

Well-known member
MAC raises their football prices a buck this year to $7 for presale, and $8 at the gate.

First increase in ten years.

Also, Coldwater (for basketball) will no longer offer reserved season tickets. There are 400 seats in the reserved section and they never approached 200 so they are doing away with it because technically that means 400 seats in the middle would be empty if GA didnt sit in the reserved section
Since you hold so much sway in CW could you please ask your esteemed AD to sit the CW students somewhere else so their standing all game doesn’t affect the visitors’ section so much? Not sure why they have to stand up to stare at their phones the whole game...
 

CJK84

Well-known member
A senior from ML (about to graduate) who played football told me Versailles should be very good this year. The Tigers appear to return a lot, including versatile qb Carson Bey, as well as Eli McEldowney, Jack Osborne, Taran Tyo, etc.
 

bigkat

Well-known member
A senior from ML (about to graduate) who played football told me Versailles should be very good this year. The Tigers appear to return a lot, including versatile qb Carson Bey, as well as Eli McEldowney, Jack Osborne, Taran Tyo, etc.
i thought i saw that they return 18 starters from last year? does anybody know if that is correct?
 

thavoice

Well-known member
Since you hold so much sway in CW could you please ask your esteemed AD to sit the CW students somewhere else so their standing all game doesn’t affect the visitors’ section so much? Not sure why they have to stand up to stare at their phones the whole game...
Pretty sure you can look past the 6 students that show up......
 

VTJGball

Active member
A senior from ML (about to graduate) who played football told me Versailles should be very good this year. The Tigers appear to return a lot, including versatile qb Carson Bey, as well as Eli McEldowney, Jack Osborne, Taran Tyo, etc.
Returning O
QB Bey
Hb J. Osborne, L.Henry
Fb T. Gehret
Te Mills
Lt Tyo
Lg Keihl
C Rush
Rg Treon
Wr E. McEldowney, N. McEldowney, Carmen
Graduated a Rt, Wr, and a TE.

Returning D
ILB Stammen
ILB Treon
OLB Bey, L. Henry
CB McEldowney and Carmen
DE Mills and Keihl
DT Tyo
Graduated a DT, S, and a all league OLB.
The Freshman went 9-0 and the JV only loss was to ML. Should have good competition for starting positions and some depth for rotation to keep players fresh.
 

PantherSkin

Active member
What is the worst record that an MAC school will make the playoffs with this year?? 5-5? 4-6? @Voice I know you did some analysis on this at one point.
 

thavoice

Well-known member
What is the worst record that an MAC school will make the playoffs with this year?? 5-5? 4-6? @Voice I know you did some analysis on this at one point.
Mr PSkin,
I did an analysis on the %'s of making the playoffs with the 12 team setup based on the records in D5-D7 since the OHSAA went to 7 divisions.
Being summer time I am not going to waste my time and doing this for the top 16 but who am I kidding, maybe I will do that this evening.....


HOWEVER, below is what I came up with and you can use an educated guess..
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
What will it take to make the playoffs?


Of course, it depends on a lot of other factors, but it gives a little insight on what has been the chances since the 7 division format was adopted.

DIVISION 5:
10 wins: 100%
9 wins: 100%
8 wins: 100%
7 wins: 93.3 %
6 wins: 65.9%
5 wins: 40.2 %
4 wins: 9.9 %
3 wins: only one team would have finished in the top 12 with 3 wins, and I did not track all the 3 win teams who did NOT make it.


DIVISION 6:
10, 9, 8 wins: 100%
7 wins: 90.2%
6 wins: 66.3%
5 wins: 22.6%
4 wins: 3.6%
3 and below: ZERO.


DIVISION 7:
8-10 wins: 100%
7 wins: 98.4%
6 wins: 91.3%
5 wins: 65.7
4 wins: 35.7
3 wins: 4 teams would have finished in the top 12, did not track all three win teams who did not make it.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

As you can see, in D7 a team with 5 wins would have made the top 12 nearly 66% of the times. I would have to believe that would greatly increase.

I would almost think that 4 wins in D7 would get teams into the playoffs nearly half the time.
 

D4fan

Well-known member
What is the worst record that an MAC school will make the playoffs with this year?? 5-5? 4-6? @Voice I know you did some analysis on this at one point.
Likely a 4-6 MAC team gets in, and if there is a D7 with a 3-7 record they may get in if they get their wins vs OOC opponents who are 5-5 or better.

One year I went through and added up how many total wins a teams wins needed to represent in order to get in to the 8 team field. Example, Minster would have been in ine year at 3-7 if they had lost their final two games as their wins were over quality opponents who had good records. If I recall for D7 19 was the magic number a couple years ago. A team that was 7-3 would have to get wins over teams that averaged just under 3 wins on the year to make it in. To get in at 5-5 you would need to get wins over teams that averaged almost 4 wins on the year.

Just a simpler way to look at estimating a teams chances. I will go back and add up 16th place over a few years to see what that magic number is to qualify.
 
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D4fan

Well-known member
So I just looked at region 28 over 5 years 2015-2019.

Many teams would have qualified for 16th with a 3-7 record so long as the teams the beat had at least 4 wins. 3-7 with opponets having 8 wins and 100% would have been in.

With 4 wins it's even fewer opponet wins needed, like 3 or so. 5 wins and your pretty much in unless you beat five 0-10 teams. The MAC should get all but 1 or two in the top 16 I would think.
 

thavoice

Well-known member
So I just looked at region 28 over 5 years 2015-2019.

Many teams would have qualified for 16th with a 3-7 record so long as the teams the beat had at least 4 wins. 3-7 with opponets having 8 wins and 100% would have been in.

With 4 wins it's even fewer opponet wins needed, like 3 or so. 5 wins and your pretty much in unless you beat five 0-10 teams. The MAC should get all but 1 or two in the top 16 I would think.
Thanks for the legwork.
I was going to do the last 5 years in D5-7 but its spring..........


When determining a Champion, it is usually better to have a few too many teams in the postseason then leaving out some who have a chance.

That is why 8 teams was very good in my determination. Too many 5-8 do very well and win titles.

12 teams? I would be hard pressed to believe 9-12 could win a title BUT with so many 7-10 win teams not making it I believe it was a good compromise.


Top 16 though?

Not. A. Fan.
 

D4fan

Well-known member
Thanks for the legwork.
I was going to do the last 5 years in D5-7 but its spring..........


When determining a Champion, it is usually better to have a few too many teams in the postseason then leaving out some who have a chance.

That is why 8 teams was very good in my determination. Too many 5-8 do very well and win titles.

12 teams? I would be hard pressed to believe 9-12 could win a title BUT with so many 7-10 win teams not making it I believe it was a good compromise.


Top 16 though?

Not. A. Fan.
Have to wonder if there is not a possibility that a 3-7 team could decline playing on their own, essentially a forfeit?

Guessing most coaches would be torn between personal responsibility of protecting their players and the bitterness some kids would feel of ripping their chances away by forfeiting. Still I can not imagine many coaches from southern districts wanting to face top D7 MAC schools with their 3-7 squad who just knocked off teams power ranked at 648, 662 and 670 in a 670 team field.

I actually was for the 12 team playoff as an undefeated team missed out a couple years back. But 16 vs 1 in D7 is almost a crime. D1-D3 probably will be fairly competitive. D7 not so much.
 

thavoice

Well-known member
Have to wonder if there is not a possibility that a 3-7 team could decline playing on their own, essentially a forfeit?

Guessing most coaches would be torn between personal responsibility of protecting their players and the bitterness some kids would feel of ripping their chances away by forfeiting. Still I can not imagine many coaches from southern districts wanting to face top D7 MAC schools with their 3-7 squad who just knocked off teams power ranked at 648, 662 and 670 in a 670 team field.

I actually was for the 12 team playoff as an undefeated team missed out a couple years back. But 16 vs 1 in D7 is almost a crime. D1-D3 probably will be fairly competitive. D7 not so much.
Teams will play.

The only times you may see someone forfeit is if they have very low numbers and injuries up them in a bind to not be able to field a team.

As for protecting players.........eh. They are still HS kids, the same ages as everyone else. It isnt like HS team going against a college team.
 
I can see a 16 vs 1 seed upset. You look a couple years ago at Hamilton New Miami when they were #1 and New Bremen was #8. Bremen won. There could be a year where a team with a tough schedule had a few bad games but not necessarily a bad team gets the 16 spot while Joe Blow down south is stomping on ants for 10 weeks and gets the #1.

What I dont like about the 16 team playoff is that it makes reg season games less important. And some teams that arent deserving to make the playoffs will
 

thavoice

Well-known member
2015-2019, the last 5 'normal' seasons this is the breakdown of the #16 seed's record,

There would have been 60 16 vs 1 games in the last 5 seasons in DV-D7. These are the records of those 60 #16 teams and some additional details.

6-4: 4 teams. 16 Leetonia vs Cuy Heights. CH lost in round 3.
-----------------16 Mad plains vs Taft. Taft lost in round 2. Could this have been an 16 vs 1 upset??????
-----------------16 Smithville vs Rootstown. Roots lost in round 3.
-----------------16 Ironton vs Wheelersburg. Burg lost in round 3.

5-5: 13 teams.

4-6: 25 teams. Of note (2019) #16 Ft Recovery vs LCC. LCC Lost in the first round of the playoffs. Could the Fort upset LCC that season?

4-5: 1 team.

3-7: 15 teams.

3-6: 1 team.

2-8: 1 team.


In closing:
Of the 60 #16 seeds, 43 were below .500.

What say you?
 

*67

Well-known member
What I dont like about the 16 team playoff is that it makes reg season games less important. And some teams that arent deserving to make the playoffs will
But it will make scheduling easier. So now you get games like Marion Local vs Wapak because Wapak doesn't have to be as worried about getting enough playoff points to make the top 8. More often than not, they're gonna have enough to make the top 16. Now that it's top 16, there's absolutely no reason why a WBL school shouldn't be playing a MAC school in Week 1. We're going to get better non-conference matchups because of it, thus enhancing the regular season.
 
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