If Russia invades Ukraine

Indiandad

Well-known member
Ukraine claims the attack in Crimea was the result of Ukrainian made munitions.

The air base is 200km from the closest Ukrainian held front line.

A second attack occurred in Northern Crimea... 140km from the front.
 

Hammerdrill

Well-known member
OUtside looking in, America is the bastion of corruption so....we really aren't any better than anyone elso
Of course there is coruption here. Other countries are far, far worse however. It is bad all the way down to the local level in a lot of other countries.
 

redskinfan04

Well-known member

I agree that Russia’s economic future success isn’t rosey. I do disagree with a few points of note here.

1. Russia’s oil and gas industry has been taking lessons. They also have the expertise of Iran available to them. Iran has been drilling their own wells and expanding fields for many years.

2. India and China will make sure any parts needed for the pipelines are obtained. These are the two largest growing markets and they are all Russia’s.

3. Russia designs their budget around $45 dollar per barrel pricing. Even at war costs they’ll be able to finance a war.
 

irish_buffalo

Well-known member
I agree that Russia’s economic future success isn’t rosey. I do disagree with a few points of note here.

1. Russia’s oil and gas industry has been taking lessons. They also have the expertise of Iran available to them. Iran has been drilling their own wells and expanding fields for many years.

2. India and China will make sure any parts needed for the pipelines are obtained. These are the two largest growing markets and they are all Russia’s.

3. Russia designs their budget around $45 dollar per barrel pricing. Even at war costs they’ll be able to finance a war.
It will take 5 years for the infrastructure required to have Asia and Iran supplant Europe.

The story points out Putin has never developed offshore export facilities. If Putin was smart he would have established gas trade with Asia before going to war.
 

redskinfan04

Well-known member
It will take 5 years for the infrastructure required to have Asia and Iran supplant Europe.

The story points out Putin has never developed offshore export facilities. If Putin was smart he would have established gas trade with Asia before going to war.

I’d imagine he didn’t develop offshore oil export because of the lack of ports Russia has access too. Only Rostov is open year round which makes things difficult.

That’s assuming Iran takes the deal and that republicans don’t kill the deal on day one if/when they take over.
 

jackson03

Well-known member
3. Russia designs their budget around $45 dollar per barrel pricing. Even at war costs they’ll be able to finance a war.
Exactly. The Russians sell to India at a heavy discount who then sells on the open market at Western market value. It's not great, but it keeps the carnage going.
 

irish_buffalo

Well-known member
The Yale report was scathing. This report critiques the Yale report and offers up a lot of data. The conclusion is the same.


However, there are two big differences with this crisis and all of the other stock market crashes. The first is that due to the CBR capital controls foreign investors were not allowed to sell their shares at all and they remained trapped in the market to this day. That also means the margin call mechanism could not operate – where investors are forced to sell their shares to raise cash to pay creditors compensation after a stock falls below a pre-agreed level.

Secondly, it is not clear if those investors will ever be allowed to sell their shares. And even if they are, it is not clear if investors will ever be allowed to buy Russian shares again due to sanctions. And on top of all that it is already clear that not many investors will want to buy Russian shares again after they have been through all of the above.

Russia’s equity market is currently de jure disconnected from the international market and probably de facto disconnected for a long time as well. In this respect the less than catastrophic collapse in share prices pales in comparison decoupling of Russia’s capital market from the international financial system. Russia’s stock market will be a domestic affair from here on in.

In conclusion the Yale report exaggerates the problems Russia’s economy is facing, but that its fundamental message is correct: the heavy sanctions imposed by the West are extreme and have fundamentally reduced its long-term growth potential.

The country will be permanently cut off Western technology that will cripple its productivity and Russia will be unable to develop this technology for itself for the foreseeable future, nor be able to buy it from anyone else.

It has also cut itself off from its most lucrative and closest markets. It will permanently lose its gas business with Europe and cannot develop a replacement market in Asia under five years at the earliest. Likewise, its oil business will be permanently reduced and less profitable. As a result of the change in orientation it has lost much of its price setting power and will have to sell energy to its remaining customers at deeply discounted prices.

These changes will reverberate to affect the budget eventually, as commodity prices return to normal levels and deficits will be harder to finance as foreign investors have been barred from Russia’s capital markets and are unlikely to return.

Putin’s plan seems to be to try to build a new market with the non-aligned countries of the Global South, but the reception there is only lukewarm, as most of these countries need to retain their good relations with the West in addition to wanting to buy cheap Russian commodities. Just how this balance will unfold will be the subject of bne IntelliNews’ reporting for the next decade

Russia prohibited a sell off. They are taking in large sums of money but cannot spend. The infrastructure is not in place for Asia and India to supplant Europe. The immediate short game has helped Russia but as Europe moves away from Russian O&G it will get worse. As pointed out in a separate article, Russia has already burned through reserves and are deficit spending for the first time in years. The longer this war drags on the worse it is for Russia. The tipping point will be focusing on propping up their economy vs funding the war.

Indiandad and EIB pointed this out from the beginning.
 
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irish_buffalo

Well-known member
I’d imagine he didn’t develop offshore oil export because of the lack of ports Russia has access too. Only Rostov is open year round which makes things difficult.

That’s assuming Iran takes the deal and that republicans don’t kill the deal on day one if/when they take over.
I was speaking more to LNG. The U.S. has developed multiple export facilities which are expensive and complex. The one built in Maryland, to export Marcellus Shale gas, was completed around 2017 and took 3-4 years to build at the tune of $1.5 billion. There are multiple on the Gulf Coast.
 

redskinfan04

Well-known member
Bigly. Conventional wisdom is that an invading force has to outnumber entrenched defenders by a factor of 2-4 to one. Ukraine had 200K troops deployed at the start. They've since added an unknown hundreds of thousands of hapless conscripts. Other than the dummies participating in the bluff, Russia sent about 80-100K. Russian attrition is about 10-15%. Ukrainian is close to 90%. They're going to completely collapse in the next 2-8 weeks. Russia will take as much as they want. The propaganda getting spewed by the Pentagram to justify corporate welfare to the military industrial complex is farcical.

I don’t know man it sure looks like Russia is on the ropes in the south. Bridges down airfields on fire and supply depots being blown up.

The vaunted Russian air defense systems Can’t seem to handle HIMARS.
 

jackson03

Well-known member
I don’t know man it sure looks like Russia is on the ropes in the south. Bridges down airfields on fire and supply depots being blown up.

The vaunted Russian air defense systems Can’t seem to handle HIMARS.
You could be right and that they're in deep trouble. I sorta suspect they aren't (yet) but who knows. I try to track it city by city.

One of the most brutal aspects of this conflict is the fact that in 2022 it can be streamed live via social media. This is new. Twitter will show you, wholly uncensored, the exact moment a Russian or Ukranian soldier is blown to pieces as he films himself with his cellphone. You can get a great idea of what's going on. My suggestion is: don't.
 

redskinfan04

Well-known member
You could be right and that they're in deep trouble. I sorta suspect they aren't (yet) but who knows. I try to track it city by city.

One of the most brutal aspects of this conflict is the fact that in 2022 it can be streamed live via social media. This is new. Twitter will show you, wholly uncensored, the exact moment a Russian or Ukranian soldier is blown to pieces as he films himself with his cellphone. You can get a great idea of what's going on. My suggestion is: don't.

They have to figure out a way to stop HIMARS. Unless they manage to stop HIMARS attacks it’s going to be game over.

I’m always surprised that Russia doesn’t do more air raids on western UKR. Intercept the arms before they get to the field.
 

Indiandad

Well-known member
They have to figure out a way to stop HIMARS. Unless they manage to stop HIMARS attacks it’s going to be game over.

I’m always surprised that Russia doesn’t do more air raids on western UKR. Intercept the arms before they get to the field.
They don't do more air raids because they are ineffective. Ukrainian air defense system have an 80% kill rate. Russia absolutely won't go near the front lines with their aircraft. If HIMARS keep pounding Russian air defense systems, Ukraine may very well own the skies over local battlefields.
 

Indiandad

Well-known member
Okay, good.

In your spare time see if you can answer for me how a mediocre comedian becomes President and then quickly amasses an 850 million dollar personal fortune.

Thanks in advance.
I suspect the same way American politicians amass huge fortunes while in office.
 

Indiandad

Well-known member
So when are you ordering the attack Douglas ??
I certainly would not be in a huge hurry for a large scale assault.

25,000 troops need a lot of supplies to sustain combat readiness. Give HIMARS and the M777 time to do their thing then hit them while they are demoralized, hungry and tired.
 

Gulliotine

Well-known member
I suspect the same way American politicians amass huge fortunes while in office.

So, you agree he's corrupt, just not with our aid? Or, the corruption "tax" is just baked into these open-ended aid packages?

For gods sake don't google it and learn the truth. You "suspect." That's hilarious.
 
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