Global Warming

Today we're having a nice little snowstorm down here in Cincinnati. Last night the forecast, aided by the weather services amazing models, was predicting UP TO an inch of snow. When this thing is all done snowfall amounts will be in the 6 inch or higher range.

Now I know that weather doesn't equal climate. But it is fair to point out that if the models predicting weather a couple of days out are not very accurate what are we to make of models predicting events decades into the future? Or models that are used to estimate climate conditions centuries in the past?
 
lotr10 said:
Today we're having a nice little snowstorm down here in Cincinnati. Last night the forecast, aided by the weather services amazing models, was predicting UP TO an inch of snow. When this thing is all done snowfall amounts will be in the 6 inch or higher range.

Now I know that weather doesn't equal climate. But it is fair to point out that if the models predicting weather a couple of days out are not very accurate what are we to make of models predicting events decades into the future? Or models that are used to estimate climate conditions centuries in the past?
Click to expand...
Long term models are very very susceptible to variables. These variables extrapolate the end results exponentially. They are guesses with a higher probability of failure.

Let's think about target shooting. At 5 yards the variables don't matter as much. Move the target and these points matter.
Variables....
Length of barrel
Surface composition and markings inside barrel
Internal measurement of barrel
Size of Bullet
Weight of Bullet
Shape of Bullet
Balance of Bullet
Bullet composition
Typer of propellant
Propellant characteristics. Flake, Ball, etc
Optics
Humidity
Wind
Where you are located in proximity to equator
Angle of shot to target
Temperature
Seating the cartridge in the chamber

Here is an article to read

Long Range Variables | RifleMagazine

Home of Rifle Magazine. Subscribe, order back issues, and buy Sporting Goods at great prices.
www.riflemagazine.com www.riflemagazine.com

We're talking about a Bullet hitting a target. Mother nature is no Bullet. I'm suppose to trust the models for weather? We can't even shoot from 5 yards with weather. I'll pass on the Climate hoax.
 
lotr10 said:
Today we're having a nice little snowstorm down here in Cincinnati. Last night the forecast, aided by the weather services amazing models, was predicting UP TO an inch of snow. When this thing is all done snowfall amounts will be in the 6 inch or higher range.

Now I know that weather doesn't equal climate. But it is fair to point out that if the models predicting weather a couple of days out are not very accurate what are we to make of models predicting events decades into the future? Or models that are used to estimate climate conditions centuries in the past?
Click to expand...
Your local weatherman got the snow forecast wrong so the overwhelming majority of science fields are wrong on climate change. Got it. lol
 
irish_buffalo said:
Your local weatherman got the snow forecast wrong so the overwhelming majority of science fields are wrong on climate change. Got it. lol
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No that NOA got the forecast this wrong for SWO, SEI and NEK is evidence that the models they utilize do a piss poor job of predicting near future weather. And these are the models with the best inputs and knowledge of the variables. If these models struggle to be predictive then what does it say about moderate & long term climate models?

That you don't understand this is a key reason why you fall for climate alarmism.
 
irish_buffalo said:
Your local weatherman got the snow forecast wrong so the overwhelming majority of science fields are wrong on climate change. Got it. lol
Click to expand...
Models are built on assumptions derived from what someone thinks scientific findings mean and how they apply.

If your models consistently produce garbage predictions, it means that your science and/or your assumptions and/or your applications are garbage.

This is one of the most irritating aspects of dealing with climate propagandists. Their models consistently produce wrong predictions, but there is no admission that there is gross error in their process. Only a kind of doubling down on more fundamentally flawed models and predictions. This stubbornness is characteristic of metaphysics, not science.
 
IVCguy said:
Models are built on assumptions derived from what someone thinks scientific findings mean and how they apply.

If your models consistently produce garbage predictions, it means that your science and/or your assumptions and/or your applications are garbage.

This is one of the most irritating aspects of dealing with climate propagandists. Their models consistently produce wrong predictions, but there is no admission that there is gross error in their process. Only a kind of doubling down on more fundamentally flawed models and predictions. This stubbornness is characteristic of metaphysics, not science.
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70% Ocean and our heat comes from the Sun. Go figure those variations
 
IVCguy said:
This is one of the most irritating aspects of dealing with climate propagandists. Their models consistently produce wrong predictions, but there is no admission that there is gross error in their process. Only a kind of doubling down on more fundamentally flawed models and predictions. This stubbornness is characteristic of metaphysics, not science.
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Great term!
 
lotr10 said:
Great term!
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I don't ever want to think like, or co-opt the rhetorical devices of, the Left. But one thing they do well is redefine terms and label things in a way that favors them. I would say the difference between us is that I won't lie to do it.

If you are a scientist, you are publishing studies, but you are not open to criticism, skeptism, alternative theories and interpretations, you cannot be questioned, and anyone who doesn't agree with you is a (fill in the blank), all that is something, but one thing I'm sure it is not is science - and what it clearly represents is something that is meant to persuade that is motivated by something outside physical science, i.e., metaphysics, i.e, religion or political ideology.

Putting that all together, we have in the climate realm, scientists taking their work, mis and over-representing and mis-applying it, and espousing conclusions that their science doesn't justify, they do it with a religious zeal, and the practical effects of their arguments lead to political policies that only Marxists and American leftists support.

So, what do you call that? The only term I have in my lexicon is climate propagandist. Perhaps we could add psuedo-scientific to it.

If the psuedo-scientists want me to recognize their credentials and expertise, they need to present their work in a scientific, not meta-physical, form.
 
IVCguy said:
I don't ever want to think like, or co-opt the rhetorical devices of, the Left. But one thing they do well is redefine terms and label things in a way that favors them. I would say the difference between us is that I won't lie to do it.
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It's come to the point where we must fight fire with fire. These people have no shame about bastardizing science or any institution to further their agendas.

Take IB - he's obviously an intelligent guy but he has been completely brainwashed on Global Warming. I also saw a lot of smart people brain washed on all things covid related.
 
1674497320964.png
 
lotr10 said:
Today we're having a nice little snowstorm down here in Cincinnati. Last night the forecast, aided by the weather services amazing models, was predicting UP TO an inch of snow. When this thing is all done snowfall amounts will be in the 6 inch or higher range.

Now I know that weather doesn't equal climate. But it is fair to point out that if the models predicting weather a couple of days out are not very accurate what are we to make of models predicting events decades into the future? Or models that are used to estimate climate conditions centuries in the past?
Click to expand...
People who understand non-linear dynamics (chaos theory) understand how non-accurate climate models are.

Only people who don't understand the math and/or have a biased reason to present it as accurate, believe that climate models are accurate.

Non-linear dynamics/chaos theory is a fun math class to take, but modeling chaotic systems is basically impossible, mathematically.
 
IVCguy said:
I will just post this without comment other than: wow.

atmos.earth

No Climate Justice Without Trans Rights

The discovery of an anti-trans group’s involvement in a Nevada battle against a lithium mine highlights the need for trans rights.
atmos.earth atmos.earth
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These people are delusional and also have mental illness. They have arrested development to describe oneself as Queer, non-binary. Two-spirited.
decades ago these peoplw would be placed in an asylum.
 
Yorktown said:
These people are delusional and also have mental illness. They have arrested development to describe oneself as Queer, non-binary. Two-spirited.
decades ago these peoplw would be placed in an asylum.
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Lol.

I read that whole article and it was like landing on Jupiter and listening to how the ETs there reason.

I used to read UTNE magazine to keep up with what the Left was cooking up. Same thing there. You want to laugh and say, "Surely you aren't serious", but it's clear they are dead serious. Then it just becomes sad because the degree of dysfunctional thinking pathways it takes them to say such things is not fixable. There's no correcting or arguing with it. But, of course, the things I was reading about in UTNE 10-15 years ago are now things that we see proposed by our leftist American party - so it is no laughing matter.

You know the joke about the news headline: "Giant Meteor Hits and Destroys Earth: Women, Minorities, and LGBTQRSTUV+ Most Impacted"

Do leftists get that joke?
 
It won't be long until these people are going to have to admit that almost ALL the climate change we blame on fossil fuel use is actually due to NATURAL climate variation and cycles:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/t...sedgntp&cvid=385bdf0d517d434da3f3718c63968cd6

As California emerges from a two-week bout of deadly atmospheric rivers, a number of climate researchers say the recent storms appear to be typical of the intense, periodic rains the state has experienced throughout its history and not the result of global warming.
 
These people are evil whack jobs. They are going to try to do to us in the name of climate change alarmism what they did to us in the name of stopping covid:

hotair.com

Biden's new climate strategy: Stay home

Last month, to little fanfare, the Biden administration released yet another “climate plan” to reduce the nation’s carbon footprint, save the world, or whatever. It was a joint effor...
hotair.com hotair.com

The COVID-19 pandemic wasn’t all bad, a new Biden administration plan to fight climate change argues: It at least “highlighted major opportunities” to reduce travel demand and lower carbon emissions through “remote work and virtual interactions.”
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The plan—which President Joe Biden’s Environmental Protection Agency and Energy, Transportation, and Housing departments released in January—aims to “eliminate nearly all greenhouse gas emissions” from the transportation sector by 2050, mostly through a transition to electric vehicles. Also included in the plan, however, is a controversial call to reduce “commuting miles” through “an increase in remote work and virtual engagements,” including in education.
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They're going to go back to remote schooling because of climate change!
 
lotr10 said:
These people are evil whack jobs. They are going to try to do to us in the name of climate change alarmism what they did to us in the name of stopping covid:

hotair.com

Biden's new climate strategy: Stay home

Last month, to little fanfare, the Biden administration released yet another “climate plan” to reduce the nation’s carbon footprint, save the world, or whatever. It was a joint effor...
hotair.com hotair.com





They're going to go back to remote schooling because of climate change!
Click to expand...
This is also the Demarxists' way of "addressing" parental demands for school choice vouchers. Misdirection. Free interwebs in the ghetto.

Don't doubt me.
 
lotr10 said:
These people are evil whack jobs. They are going to try to do to us in the name of climate change alarmism what they did to us in the name of stopping covid:

hotair.com

Biden's new climate strategy: Stay home

Last month, to little fanfare, the Biden administration released yet another “climate plan” to reduce the nation’s carbon footprint, save the world, or whatever. It was a joint effor...
hotair.com hotair.com





They're going to go back to remote schooling because of climate change!
Click to expand...
I noticed this early on in the pandemic. Articles started coming out about how much cleaner the air and water was with everyone staying home. It was obvious they were setting the foundation to use the same draconian policy in the name of climate change.
 
cabezadecaballo said:
Push the lie until it breaks through.

wattsupwiththat.com

The New Pause lengthens again: 101 months and counting … | Watts Up With That?

Why, then, the mounting hysteria – in Western nations only – about the imagined and (so far, at any rate) imaginary threat of global warming rapid enough to be catastrophic?
wattsupwiththat.com wattsupwiththat.com
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Not to be confused with the Overton Window...incrementally move the goal post to end up with the desired result.

For whatever else he was Obama got it...remember his slow down admonition to the left during the Trump years.
 
irish_buffalo said:
Suckers getting “news” from opinion pieces from HotAir and WUWT. Lol
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www.aei.org

18 Spectacularly Wrong Predictions Made Around the Time of the First Earth Day in 1970, Expect More This Year

Today is Earth Day 2020 and marks the 50th anniversary of Earth Day, so it’s time for my annual Earth Day post on the spectacularly wrong predictions that were made around the time of the first Earth Day in 1970….. In the May 2000 issue of Reason Magazine, award-winning science correspondent...
www.aei.org www.aei.org
 
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