The top of D2 is every bit as good as D1, that’s obvious with Massillon beating trash bag Eds back to back years. But after the top 4 or 5, the drop off is massive.
If this is true, then an Elder move to D-II probably would affect one game each season for sure, would possibly affect two games, and maybe would affect three games. That's all.
We all agree that if Elder were to end up in D-II their scheduling difficulties would continue unabated, so they still would play the same tough regular season schedule but then be in the R8 playoffs, the same as LaSalle. So their regular season would be unaffected. Now let's look at the playoffs.
In R4 the first round game usually is a gimme for the Panthers, although this year the Highlanders kept from being blown out. In R8 the first round game also would be a gimme for Elder. This round would not be affected.
The R4 quarterfinal game is no sure thing, as we recently found out. I will concede that in R8 the quarterfinal game most probably would belong to Elder in 9 out of 10 years, so I will say that that round probably would be affected for sure.
Now to the R8 semis and final. If the top 4 or 5 teams in D-II are every bit as good as those in D-I, and if LaSalle or Winton Woods is in that top 4 or 5, then playing either of them in an R8 semi would be at least the same as playing another team in an R4 semi (depending on who the D-I team is and how good they are that year). If they're both in the top 4 or 5 and in opposite halves of the bracket, then playing them back-to-back would be at least the same as playing in the R4 semis and final (again, depending on who the two D-I teams are). And of course maybe some years another R8 school other than LaSalle or Winton Woods - Anderson, Troy, or Lima Senior - oops, bad memories, scratch them - might be in that top 4 or 5 and would pose a legitimate threat to the Panthers in R8. So, depending on the quality of R8 in any given year (what round the massive drop off occurs), you would have to say that those two rounds possibly or maybe would be affected by Elder moving to D-II. One or two games.
Now we move to the D-II semis. Could you pencil in the Panthers every or even most years as the R8 champs and therefore in the D-II state semis? I would say certainly not to every year and probably not to most years (75% or more of the time). The majority of years? Possibly, but maybe not.
Now to the D-II title game. Could you pencil them in to the R8 title game every year and as R8 champ every year? Of course not, not with Hoban and Massillon lurking about. None of the coaches or fans of those schools would say that they are afraid of playing Elder.
If the top of D-II is every bit as good as D-I, what is the difference between losing an R4 playoff game to Lakota West, Moeller, X, or Princeton and losing an R8 playoff game to LaSalle or Winton Woods? Or losing a state semifinal or title game to LSE or a Pickerington team or to Hoban or Massillon? Heck, one way to look at it would be that losing in the D-II playoffs in R8 play most years would be worse than losing in the D-I playoffs.
I do think it is fair to say that winning the D-I "big school" football title brings some prestige that winning a lower division title normally does not. Of course, this year may be different because if LSE wins the D-I title and Massillon wins the D-II title the Tigers can legitimately claim to be the best high school football team in the state this year.
In any case, the day may come when, due to demographics and other factors statewide, the competitive balance option that yields the highest number for Elder is not enough to keep them in D-I.
