Doverbuck1
Well-known member
This would be a lot more intriguing if this was ran like basketball with the top 8 choosing who they would play. As it is as long as you host it’s no big deal to win the points chase.
Division III Region 9
- Thread starter Fumblerooski
- Start date
BlackandGold
RollSide
If the game was in West Virigina, I think Martinsburg would win by a couple TDs. Since they have to travel to Painesville on a Saturday, it should be a decent game.
I’m apologize for that brain blunder.
Bidenomics
Well-known member
Where is the STSM “3-0 to finish the season” crowd??
Martinsburg is the St. Iggy-Moeller-St. X of WVA.
I haven’t looked or read up on them this year but they are more a central Pennsylvania or Virginia style team than wva.
Over the last 10 yrs approx. I would put them in the Massillon category or Avon.
Be nice to finally see them play someone in Ohio. They don’t seem to have much trouble typically in wva even in playoffs and State.
I haven’t looked or read up on them this year but they are more a central Pennsylvania or Virginia style team than wva.
Over the last 10 yrs approx. I would put them in the Massillon category or Avon.
Be nice to finally see them play someone in Ohio. They don’t seem to have much trouble typically in wva even in playoffs and State.
Mr. Slippery
Well-known member
I didn't know anyone was in that crowd. There were more of us who thought they could finish the season 0-3. Only 1 person out of about 40 on the Summit County pick 'em selected STVM to beat Hoban.
Bidenomics
Well-known member
Because they get a ton of kids from the DC metro area. Also think Massillon would beat them Annually and they’d rarely beat anyone who wins a state championship in Ohio’s 1st 3 divisions
Mr. Red Raider
Well-known member
Here are some updates on some of the teams fighting for the playoffs in Week 8:
SVSM (4-4) has a tough finish with games against Bishop Hartley and Walsh Jesuit. They should make the playoffs with a split, even if they drop a few spots. However, if they should lose both, then things will be a bit dicey.
NDCL (4-4) dropped a tough game against Padua yesterday (I attended this game). Their QB, who was out due to an injury suffered last week, should be back for Week 9. VASJ is gonna be a really tough matchup for the Lions, and even Lake Catholic (despite their 1-7 record) is not gonna be a pushover Week 10. A split should get things done, but if the Lions want to feel safe, they should win both.
Ravenna sits 14th, and got the job done against Coventry. They shouldn't have any issues with Springfield either, and have a decent chance to beat Woodridge as well. (The Bulldogs will be playing TWO games this week). The Ravens stand to move up, but how much is to be determined.
East should win out its last couple of games, but I don't think they'll move up much (if at all), due to the lack of L2s.
Harvey needed the game against Berkshire, and lost a very tough one. They have two more chances (against Hawken and Lutheran West), to move into playoff positioning. They should get some L2s from Crestwood, and Chaney if they win out.
Howland sits 2-6, and in 19th place. Unless they win both of their games, they will likely be sitting home Week 11. Had to beat Mooney last Saturday, and West Branch the week before then too. This would be an entirely different convo if either or both scenarios happened.
I think that the field is potentially all but set, barring an upset or two. The only thing to debate is the seeding.
SVSM (4-4) has a tough finish with games against Bishop Hartley and Walsh Jesuit. They should make the playoffs with a split, even if they drop a few spots. However, if they should lose both, then things will be a bit dicey.
NDCL (4-4) dropped a tough game against Padua yesterday (I attended this game). Their QB, who was out due to an injury suffered last week, should be back for Week 9. VASJ is gonna be a really tough matchup for the Lions, and even Lake Catholic (despite their 1-7 record) is not gonna be a pushover Week 10. A split should get things done, but if the Lions want to feel safe, they should win both.
Ravenna sits 14th, and got the job done against Coventry. They shouldn't have any issues with Springfield either, and have a decent chance to beat Woodridge as well. (The Bulldogs will be playing TWO games this week). The Ravens stand to move up, but how much is to be determined.
East should win out its last couple of games, but I don't think they'll move up much (if at all), due to the lack of L2s.
Harvey needed the game against Berkshire, and lost a very tough one. They have two more chances (against Hawken and Lutheran West), to move into playoff positioning. They should get some L2s from Crestwood, and Chaney if they win out.
Howland sits 2-6, and in 19th place. Unless they win both of their games, they will likely be sitting home Week 11. Had to beat Mooney last Saturday, and West Branch the week before then too. This would be an entirely different convo if either or both scenarios happened.
I think that the field is potentially all but set, barring an upset or two. The only thing to debate is the seeding.
Marathonman
Member
Wow it’s been 2 days and Simkons has not put in his Two cents on why Canfield is not rated higher then Dover? Maybe Dover football got his tongue?
AuroraGmen
Active member
Aurora lost 3yr starting QB at beginning of 2nd qtr. Backup QB already out injured so they went with 3rd QB. Backup expected back for playoffs. Starter status is unknown. Gotta find a way. Unfortunate part of the game. Injuries suck
Fumblerooski
Well-known member
So is the #1 seed pretty much just down to to Dover and Chardon? There looks to be a pretty big gap from 2 to 3 (Chardon to Kenston) in computer points. With the top 5 playing similar ending schedules (total wins wise), I don’t see anyone jumping those two (assuming everyone wins out). Will Dover have enough to hold on, or will Chardon pass them with the higher L1 points that they would get?
Bidenomics
Well-known member
We ain’t using excuses now. Everyone smashed BR fans here eventhough they were playing without 5-6 starters.
Injuries are part of it.
Journey
Well-known member
clarkgriswold
Well-known member
If there was such a crowd it should be small and in a mental hospital. Going into week 8 the Irish were more likely to finish 0-3 than 3-0.
clarkgriswold
Well-known member
I don't think anyone was bashing BR. They were bashing the arrogance of the "nobody wants a piece of Steubenville" posters.
I think if healthy they could be spoilers in the region.
Mr. Slippery
Well-known member
For starters, nobody else in the region can catch these 2 teams in the points if they finish unbeaten. As is usually the case, it will come down to L2s. If both finish unbeaten, my calculations have Chardon finishing with the #1 seed at 34.2863 and Dover #2 at 33.2546. The biggest blow to Dover is that a win against Linsly would only be worth about half as many points as a Chardon win against Willoughby South. Because Linsly is a DVI equivalent, all of Linsly's wins are awarded DVI L2 points.
For Dover, I have them winning their last 2 games. For level 2 points, I have Lake Catholic losing their last 2 (they could win both which would take Dover near 34.5)...Canfield, East, and Steubenville all winning their last 2...Warren losing their last 2 (add .056 if Warren beats New Philly)...Strongsville losing their last 2 (add .73 if they win either of those)...Marietta beating Warren (add .056 if Warren wins)...Linsly winning in week 10...New Philly winning this week.
For Chardon, I have them winning their last 2 games. For level 2 points, I have Glenville, Buchtel, and Ursuline all winning their last 2...Riverside losing their last 2...Mayfield winning this week...Kenston winning their last 2...New Philly winning this week...Madison losing their last 2...Will. South beating Riverside...East. North losing their last 2. Because I already project Chardon's first 3 nonleague opponents to win all of their remaining games, Chardon has very little room to go beyond that 34.2863 average that I've projected. Both Chardon and Dover have New Philly, so that is nearly a wash if both beat them (Dover benefits slightly more due to their divisors, but that's already in the calculations). Dover has a few more chances to increase their points with Lake Catholic and Strongsville having games they could win but are not projected to win.
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SeeYaSometime
Well-known member
If SVSM loses both games they don’t deserve to be in the playoffs, sixteen teams or not.
AuroraGmen
Active member
You must have not actually read my post. I said “gotta find a way”
Try actually reading the post
Bidenomics
Well-known member
No need to even post about who is out…. Just eat that L and next man up.
That’s what we got multiple weeks.
AuroraGmen
Active member
Aurora is playing #3 QB. He came in during Barberton game because #2QB was hurt against Cuyahoga Falls. #2 may be back for playoffs. He is an excellent athlete. He would give AURORA a chance. #3 will be good but he is young. Lot to ask of him coming into Barberton game at beginning of 2nd qtr and the getting Medina Highland this week. He played hard
FirestoneFan
Well-known member
My thoughts on the strength of the teams after 8 weeks. Not based on Harbin ratings.
1-Chardon
2-Aurora
3-Dover +1
4- SVSM -1
5-Canfield
6-Kenston
7-Steubenville
8-Streetsboro
9-Hubbard
10-NDCL
11-New Philadelphia
12-Tallmadge
13-West Geauga
14-Akron East
15-Chaney
16-Ravenna +2
17-Howland
18-Louisville -2
19-Alliance
20-Niles McKinley
21-Buchtel
22-Geneva
23-Marlington
24-Younstown East +1
25-Painsville Harvey -1
26-Coventry
27-Akron Springfield
1-Chardon
2-Aurora
3-Dover +1
4- SVSM -1
5-Canfield
6-Kenston
7-Steubenville
8-Streetsboro
9-Hubbard
10-NDCL
11-New Philadelphia
12-Tallmadge
13-West Geauga
14-Akron East
15-Chaney
16-Ravenna +2
17-Howland
18-Louisville -2
19-Alliance
20-Niles McKinley
21-Buchtel
22-Geneva
23-Marlington
24-Younstown East +1
25-Painsville Harvey -1
26-Coventry
27-Akron Springfield
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Move Cardeman to QB
he first 9 would beat anyone 10 or below?
FirestoneFan
Well-known member
#3 held his own against Barberton. Watched the game. He did not do bad or make a bunch of mistakes. If #2 has been out most of the season and might not come back then #3 is #2. Also the hit on #1 looked nasty and I doubt he returns this year. #3 is now #1.
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FirestoneFan
Well-known member
Probably but we will see.
Moving Jack gives them almost a triple option running game, now he only gets jet sweeps and counters, at qb in pistol on spread he can go anywhere!
FirestoneFan
Well-known member
Aurora will be fine IMO.
Carol Danvers
Active member
I enjoy the weekly rankings. These list are never easy, so effort is appreciated.
Just my .02 from having seen some of the top 16.
1-Chardon Could be Dover here. 4 shutouts lead D3. Schedule is challenging. They lost 7 1st and 2nd team all-state guys and here they are again.
2-Aurora Maybe 3 with injury. I agree, put Cardaman at QB. He's quick twitch and and an excellent athlete.
3-Dover +1 Could be 1. Another good schedule. At worst 2.
4- SVSM -1 If they lose out they're looking at 14-18. A split and they get a middle seeding. Like I've mentioned brutal schedule. 4 is a bit high.
5-Canfield This is about right. Statistically would beat Dover 9 out of 10 times...in Bizarro world.
6-Kenston Way too high. Starting a freshman at QB hurts. Even with Nikko at QB, Hubbard, Steubenville, Streetboro and West Geauga would win. Losing Indiana commit hurts. Excellent kicker. They feel like a 9 or 10. Can't be down 42-0 at half against Chardon and expect to be a contender.
7-Steubenville Injuries and schedule are the questions. Never count them out. 7-9
8-Streetsboro Sometimes look like world beaters and then there's the Norton game. 3 year starter at QB plus the Hopperton brothers have lit up the scoreboards. 49 points/game
9-Hubbard Way low. Caffey is special. 5-6.
10-NDCL I said they may lose out when then were 4-2 and hadn't beaten anybody. They gave up 10 yards a carry last year and aren't much better against the run. Caffey would run for 275 against them. 14-18. Tallmadge and West Geauga win against them and should both be higher.
11-New Philadelphia I think this is about right. Haven't seen them
12-Tallmadge Losses against 2 very good teams (Highland and Aurora). 10-11
13-West Geauga Low. Probably 7-10. Excellent defense, but a couple bad games. Another excellent kicker.
14-Akron East Not sure if there any better than when they got shutout by West Geauga last year 26-0. They are big, I don't see any threats.
15-Chaney No Idea here. Not sure if they make playoffs.
16-Ravenna +2 14-15, maybe higher if they win out.