D2R7 Playoff Projections - "Senator your No Joe Eitel"

[tedngina]

My predictions for D2 Region 7 - Assumes the following

Win W10 projects the points if the team wins Week 10 which takes into account Week 9 L1 and L2 points and adds the L1 points for winning Week 10 and projects the Week 10 L2 points for those teams which they have beat (W10 - L2 points are based entirely on guesses which are mostly on records of the teams they are playing in Week 10)

Lose W10 projects the points if the team losses Week 10 adds projects the Week 10 L2 points for those teams which they have beat (W10 - L2 points are based entirely on guesses which are mostly on records of the teams they are playing in Week 1-)
Seed 1 & 2 pretty much locked up
Seed 3 is up in the air depending on three games - Washington, Hoover & Westerville South

 

[KramericaIndustries]

Appreciate the effort here, only thing I would fix is that Northland, Logan, Kilbourne, and St. Charles are all HIGHLY likely to lose their games. This doesnt help Perry or Tangy, unfortunately, as Perry having to come to Berlin and Tangy taking out Big Walnut would have been dream matchups from my perspective.

EDIT - Im coming up with 6.8 for Kilbourne, they get passed by Perry if they win

 

[KramericaIndustries]

Dont think you did St Charles correctly either, with an Amanda win I still only have 6.39(edit) for them

So with a Perry win its

14 - Wooster
15 - Perry
16 - Kilbourne
out - Tangy

Perry loss its

14 - Wooster
15 - Kilbourne
16 - Tangy
out - St Charles

 

[The Dock]

Dont think you did St Charles correctly either, with an Amanda win I still only have 6.5 for them
View attachment 22463

I wrote this on the CCL thread last Friday, and this is what I have (with DeSales beating SC.)

Shown work:

St. Charles
10.5/9 = 1.16 — L1

45.5/87 = .52298 ~~~> .52298(10) = 5.229 — L2

I believe the discrepancy is Fairfield Union is only worth 5 points (D4), not 6.?

5.229 + 1.16 = 6.3956 — SC final average



//

Kilbourne
25/10 = 2.5 — L1
22.5 + 17.5 (beating WN)



40/95 = .421



.421(10)



4.21 + 2.5 = 6.7 final avg



25/10 = 2.5

 

[KramericaIndustries]

Good catch, thx. Tough to do this stuff manually!

A couple other things, I cant come up with 28.9 for Berlin if they win. A Hoover win moves them into #2 without question. But Mass cannot catch Berlin if they win. Hoover loss drops them below Mass if they win.

Based on the incredibly easy run Big Walnut is having this year, wouldn't surprise me at all to see all the tough teams on the other side of the bracket.

 

[tedngina]

Certainly there are errors. No disrespect to any team. No intent. More in my math skills than anything. Lots can happen with a upset at the lower end of the seeding. Middle to upper half seems pretty safe. Agree with the previous post about the likely victories just didn’t have time or energy to make it my predictions and I don’t have enough knowledge. I thought it might be fun for other crazy dads to looks at. Enjoy week 10

 

[KramericaIndustries]

No worries, I do appreciate the effort. With so many teams in the mix, there are a lot of assumptions to have to bake in to make these projections, and as we've all seen before some week 10 craziness is possible.

 

[yj_runfan]

*you’re

 

[KramericaIndustries]

Be interesting to see what other site the OHSAA uses if we get 2 Columbus/Akron-Canton matchups in the 3rd week. Mansfield Arlin obv choice, Ashland likely other one I suppose but much further for cbus folks.

 

[firewatch]

Be interesting to see what other site the OHSAA uses if we get 2 Columbus/Akron-Canton matchups in the 3rd week. Mansfield Arlin obv choice, Ashland likely other one I suppose but much further for cbus folks.

Canton or Massillon to Mansfield 60 miles. Route 30
Columbus to Mansfield 65 miles. Route 71.
Columbus to Ashland 80 miles
Canton or Massillon to Ashland still about 60.

 

[Mr. Slippery]

Be interesting to see what other site the OHSAA uses if we get 2 Columbus/Akron-Canton matchups in the 3rd week. Mansfield Arlin obv choice, Ashland likely other one I suppose but much further for cbus folks.

Mt. Vernon has been used in recent years for some of those contests.

 

[KramericaIndustries]

Mt Vernon is a nice setting, but pretty small for a couple teams that are likely to travel quite well.

 

[Mr. Slippery]

Mt Vernon is a nice setting, but pretty small for a couple teams that are likely to travel quite well.

Nonetheless, it has been used for some of this region's playoff games.

With regards to the teams in this region, how many are likely to travel that well other than Massillon?

 

[JimmieJ48fan]

My predictions for D2 Region 7 - Assumes the following

Win W10 projects the points if the team wins Week 10 which takes into account Week 9 L1 and L2 points and adds the L1 points for winning Week 10 and projects the Week 10 L2 points for those teams which they have beat (W10 - L2 points are based entirely on guesses which are mostly on records of the teams they are playing in Week 10)

Lose W10 projects the points if the team losses Week 10 adds projects the Week 10 L2 points for those teams which they have beat (W10 - L2 points are based entirely on guesses which are mostly on records of the teams they are playing in Week 1-)
Seed 1 & 2 pretty much locked up
Seed 3 is up in the air depending on three games - Washington, Hoover & Westerville South

How'd you calculate Perry's points if they beat Glenoak. I couldn't come up with 6.9 in my calculations even with a few combinations.

 

[The Dock]

Canton or Massillon to Mansfield 60 miles. Route 30
Columbus to Mansfield 65 miles. Route 71.
Columbus to Ashland 80 miles
Canton or Massillon to Ashland still about 60.

Yeah, probably Ashland. For funsies I did Zanesville and it was ~63 miles from Westerville (a generous, easterly locale point to connotate BW/Westerville/Olentangy school -- didn't look at the possible brackets that far in advance) and ~91 from Massillon Washington.

 

[Mr. Slippery]

How'd you calculate Perry's points if they beat Glenoak. I couldn't come up with 6.9 in my calculations even with a few combinations.

Perry currently has 11 L1s and 29 L2s. Beating GlenOak is certainly no gimme since GlenOak has improved this year. If Perry beats GlenOak, they will add 6.5 L1s and 12 L2s. Additionally, Akron East will beat Akron North, so add 6 L2s. The tricky part might be Louisville beating Linsly. A win over Linsly adds 4 L2s to Perry's total. Perry's L1 divisor is 10, and their L2 divisor will be 98 since Lake and GlenOak will only play 9 games apiece.

Add it all up, and we get:
17.5 L1s and 51 L2s.

Now for the fun part, we apply the L1 and L2 divisors:
(17.5/10) + ((51/98)x10) = 6.9541

I hadn't paid much attention to this region until seeing this thread this afternoon and did a double take when I realized Perry still has a legitimate chance to make the playoffs. Even if Louisville doesn't beat Linsly, Perry finishes slightly above 6.5 and still might have a chance to qualify if they can beat GlenOak. However, they need that Louisville win to have any chance to pass Worthington Kilbourne. WK has at least 6 guaranteed L2s coming from the Delaware Hayes-Franklin Hts. winner.

Other than Wooster, the teams from 14th-19th have some very difficult matchups this weekend. Perry should also root for Logan to lose to Zanesville. Not only would Logan blow by Perry with that win, but that win would also benefit St. Charles.

 

[The Dock]

Now for the fun part, we apply the L1 and L2 divisors:
(17.5/10) + ((51/98)x10) = 6.9541

and if the order of operations breaks your balls when finding the L2 divisor, apply the math "hack" of moving the decimal point of the two-digit L2 divisor over one spot to the left... e.g. 51/9.8 = ((51/98)x10)

(worth pointing out this trick since not everyone thinks to write the L2 part of the equation out with parentheticals -- let alone parentheticals within parentheticals -- when they do it like you did.)

 

[Mr. Slippery]

and if the order of operations breaks your balls when finding the L2 divisor, apply the math "hack" of moving the decimal point of the two-digit L2 divisor over one spot to the left... e.g. 51/9.8 = ((51/98)x10)

That's how I do it when I'm not writing it out for others. It's more fun to give others a headache though.

 

[MassillonK1D330]

Based off the wins of Massillon and Hoover how would Hoover beat us out for the #2 spot? I was trying to figure this out but i was lost lol

 

[KramericaIndustries]

If Perry wins and East and Louisville win. If LV loses below that.

 

[KramericaIndustries]

Based off the wins of Massillon and Hoover how would Hoover beat us out for the #2 spot? I was trying to figure this out but i was lost lol

Hoover and Berlin easily over MW if they both win. MW is hurt by the fact that most of their former opponents will lose Friday

Even if you add in Glen Oak and Canisus wins thats only another 1.2 pts, leaves them at 27.1. Berlin safely looking at 27.67 and Hoover 28.8 in that scenario, so MW is 4th. Again, making a lot of assumptions here about how games turn out, and if something crazy happens there are some remote possibilities it could turn out otherwise.

If Hoover loses, MW still cannot catch Berlin (unless they lose, highly unlikely) and will be the 3 seed. But that really doesnt matter because 2/3 game is neutral site anyway.

I still cant make sense of seeds 11-7, so its hard to say what the 2nd round matchups would be.

 

[KramericaIndustries]

Perry currently has 11 L1s and 29 L2s. Beating GlenOak is certainly no gimme since GlenOak has improved this year. If Perry beats GlenOak, they will add 6.5 L1s and 12 L2s. Additionally, Akron East will beat Akron North, so add 6 L2s. The tricky part might be Louisville beating Linsly. A win over Linsly adds 4 L2s to Perry's total. Perry's L1 divisor is 10, and their L2 divisor will be 98 since Lake and GlenOak will only play 9 games apiece.

Add it all up, and we get:
17.5 L1s and 51 L2s.

Now for the fun part, we apply the L1 and L2 divisors:
(17.5/10) + ((51/98)x10) = 6.9541

I hadn't paid much attention to this region until seeing this thread this afternoon and did a double take when I realized Perry still has a legitimate chance to make the playoffs. Even if Louisville doesn't beat Linsly, Perry finishes slightly above 6.5 and still might have a chance to qualify if they can beat GlenOak. However, they need that Louisville win to have any chance to pass Worthington Kilbourne. WK has at least 6 guaranteed L2s coming from the Delaware Hayes-Franklin Hts. winner.

Other than Wooster, the teams from 14th-19th have some very difficult matchups this weekend. Perry should also root for Logan to lose to Zanesville. Not only would Logan blow by Perry with that win, but that win would also benefit St. Charles.

Perry has no chance to qualify if LV does not win that game. 6.49 will not get 16th place, Kilbourne will have a min 6.81 and Tangy 6.58 (if the divisors change last week, might be off a couple hundreths). Perry must get those L2 points to get out of 17th even with a win.

Big Walnut (should they make 3rd week, which is not a given) will travel well. They have not been good in quite some time, but it is a rapidly growing community who is into football given their D3 championship several years back, they will be jacked.

Berlin traveled pretty well for Wooster last year despite COVID, bad weather might keep folks away from a longer road trip, but parents and school likely to organize sprit bussing/etc, be surprised if there isn't a big turnout.

 

[Mr. Slippery]

Perry has no chance to qualify if LV does not win that game. 6.49 will not get 16th place, Kilbourne will have a min 6.81 and Tangy 6.58 (if the divisors change last week, might be off a couple hundreths). Perry must get those L2 points to get out of 17th even with a win.

Big Walnut (should they make 3rd week, which is not a given) will travel well. They have not been good in quite some time, but it is a rapidly growing community who is into football given their D3 championship several years back, they will be jacked.

Berlin traveled pretty well for Wooster last year despite COVID, bad weather might keep folks away from a longer road trip, but parents and school likely to organize sprit bussing/etc, be surprised if there isn't a big turnout.

Joe Eitel has taken some of the guesswork out of all of this:

2021 Region 7 - 2021-10-23 - Unofficial playoff points compiled by Joe Eitel

www.joeeitel.com

If Louisville wins, Wooster would also pass Olentangy if neither of those 2 gets any other points this weekend.

 

[KramericaIndustries]

I dont see Wooster losing their game Friday, which means they will easily, comfortably move into 14th well ahead of all these others. There is a scenario where Independence might slip to 14, but not sure that is likely.

Its gonna be one of these 2 outcomes IMO

14 - Wooster
15 - Perry
16 - Kilbourne
out - Tangy
out - St Charles

14 - Wooster
15 - Kilbourne
16 - Tangy
out - Perry
out - St Charles

 

[The Dock]

I dont see Wooster losing their game Friday, which means they will easily, comfortably move into 14th well ahead of all these others.

Its gonna be one of these 2 outcomes IMO

14 - Wooster
15 - Perry
16 - Kilbourne
out - Tangy
out - St Charles

14 - Wooster
15 - Kilbourne
16 - Tangy
out - Perry
out - St Charles

It'd be wicked interesting to see Tangy vs Big Walnut. I give it a considerable non-zero chance of it being a 16 beating a 1.

 

[JimmieJ48fan]

It was the L2 divisor dropping to 98 for Perry for why the calculations differed. Thanks.

 

[KramericaIndustries]

OK, but dropping divisors make scores go up

Looks like each divisor point drop will add roughly 0.05 pts to a teams score, so not sure it makes a difference anywhere, but we will see. Again, Louisville has to beat this WV team for any of this to matter, and who knows what that team is even like.

 

[Mr. Slippery]

OK, but dropping divisors make scores go up

View attachment 22510
View attachment 22511

Looks like each divisor point drop will add roughly 0.05 pts to a teams score, so not sure it makes a difference anywhere, but we will see. Again, Louisville has to beat this WV team for any of this to matter, and who knows what that team is even like.

My school played Linsly. They're competent but beatable if you play a clean game. My school did not play a clean game, and it snowballed on them the rest of the game. On the flip side, this is arguably Louisville's worst team in a very long time. Louisville will have their hands full, and many would consider them an underdog here. The game is in WV, so there's that as well. Is Louisville content to have avoided a winless season by beating Alliance last week? Are the Leopards making a longish trip just to take a beating, or will they compete for 4 quarters? I don't know which team will win it, but I'll be paying attention to it.

 

[yipyap]

Is there a chance mathematically that Nortland could get in with a win over 6-2 Beechcroft. Improbable but not impossible.

 

[PerryDude]

Perry currently has 11 L1s and 29 L2s. Beating GlenOak is certainly no gimme since GlenOak has improved this year. If Perry beats GlenOak, they will add 6.5 L1s and 12 L2s. Additionally, Akron East will beat Akron North, so add 6 L2s. The tricky part might be Louisville beating Linsly. A win over Linsly adds 4 L2s to Perry's total. Perry's L1 divisor is 10, and their L2 divisor will be 98 since Lake and GlenOak will only play 9 games apiece.

Add it all up, and we get:
17.5 L1s and 51 L2s.

Now for the fun part, we apply the L1 and L2 divisors:
(17.5/10) + ((51/98)x10) = 6.9541

I hadn't paid much attention to this region until seeing this thread this afternoon and did a double take when I realized Perry still has a legitimate chance to make the playoffs. Even if Louisville doesn't beat Linsly, Perry finishes slightly above 6.5 and still might have a chance to qualify if they can beat GlenOak. However, they need that Louisville win to have any chance to pass Worthington Kilbourne. WK has at least 6 guaranteed L2s coming from the Delaware Hayes-Franklin Hts. winner.

Other than Wooster, the teams from 14th-19th have some very difficult matchups this weekend. Perry should also root for Logan to lose to Zanesville. Not only would Logan blow by Perry with that win, but that win would also benefit St. Charles.

Bla, Bla Bla, Mr. SLIP! I'm from PA and had kids in my district attend Linsley because of our close proximity to Wheeling. It's a private school but no where near the caliber of Stark County Football! I was pretty ticked off when CCC lost to them at HOME! I have been running my gibs on FB about the difference between Stark County Football and Wheeling Football! CCC let me down! I still hope that their schedule has prepared them for a deep run! Good luck CCC! Win out and bring the hardware home!