Best team likely not going to make the playoffs?

For the love of god...no state title contenders missed the playoffs...if you missed the playoffs as currently constructed (where almost everyone gets in including teams that won 2 games) then you weren't that good!!!!
In one region 7 or possibly 8 teams with winning records will miss the playoffs. The Harbin cutoff for this region was higher then every other region as well to get 2 home games, to get a home game and the cutoff to get in.
 
To me I would put a team in that has lost to all 10-0 perennial powers by a couple scores or less and is 0-10 in over a 10-0 team like Norton or Granville for instance this year.
 
In one region 7 or possibly 8 teams with winning records will miss the playoffs. The Harbin cutoff for this region was higher then every other region as well to get 2 home games, to get a home game and the cutoff to get in.
To fix this problem, Regions should be done away with and the top teams state-wide should play regardless of geography. People just have to suck it up and make the trips. West of the Mississippi people would be hysterically laughing about what Ohioans think is a long trip. I thought the exact same way when I lived in Ohio before I moved West. I was stunned by what people drive w/o a second thought. Hell, there are people that commute over 100 miles one-way to LA for work every single day, to be out where they can afford a house.

And thousands of people drive 260 miles + one way and back again on the weekend to go to Las Vegas. I-15 in the middle of the Mojave Desert looks and feels like rush hour at 5 pm in the city.
 
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To me I would put a team in that has lost to all 10-0 perennial powers by a couple scores or less and is 0-10 in over a 10-0 team like Norton or Granville for instance this year.
I would never do that. I want to see wins. And come on... no one is ever going to go 0-10 to all 10-0 teams. Not that I am impressed with Norton, or Lorain or other teams that beat a string of cupcakes. But at least, they WON and that's what the Harbins measure. I don't agree with the way it got set up, but Jack Harbin didn't see fit to call me in 1970. And he lived in Wickliffe about 5 miles away from me too. Local Call!! LOL!!! ;)
 
@Calif_Eagle I commuted from Canfield to Cincinnati for work before and also Canfield to Erie, to Pittsburgh, Columbus, Dayton for a few weeks.
That said I can guarantee you I wouldn't drive to Cincinnati to see Canfield play, I didn't even go a few miles down 224 to Boardman yesterday to watch them in person. I didn't even see them play in the state championship game despite being in Stark County that day for work (near Fairless HS).
 
@Calif_Eagle I commuted from Canfield to Cincinnati for work before and also Canfield to Erie, to Pittsburgh, Columbus, Dayton for a few weeks.
That said I can guarantee you I wouldn't drive to Cincinnati to see Canfield play, I didn't even go a few miles down 224 to Boardman yesterday to watch them in person. I didn't even see them play in the state championship game despite being in Stark County that day for work (near Fairless HS).
In general Ohioans think 100 miles is a real long drive. I couldn't get people to go to the Erie County Field House for minor league hockey when Jim Craig, 1980 Olympic Gold Medal goalie for the USA, was on the Erie team. "ERIE!!! no way!!!" Yeah 90 miles from Euclid, Big Deal.

I couldn't get people to go to Pittsburgh for a rock concert. "Pittsburgh!!! No way!!" yeah 125 to 140 miles. SMH at that. I pretty much gave up after all that.

Props to you for being willing to drive a bit. My experience was that people freaked out over really pathetic distances. My people anyway.
 
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For the love of god...no state title contenders missed the playoffs...if you missed the playoffs as currently constructed (where almost everyone gets in including teams that won 2 games) then you weren't that good!!!!
I think everyone but 1-2 on this thread agree with this. Any team that's 5-5 or 4-6 and finishes as the 17-20 seed is very, VERY unlikely to beat a #1 - #4 seed that finished 7-3 to 10-0. Sure, there may have been exceptions here and there, maybe a team gets hot, maybe a team gets a key player back late in the season, whatever the exception, the whole system can't be defined around a couple exceptions.
 
Delphos SJ finished 4-6 with four of the losses to Marion Local, Versailles, Coldwater and Minster. Are they a title contender? Absolutely not. In Div VII there are only a handful of contenders. Okay, there's one. Just one. But I would almost guarantee we could/would beat 8 or more of the playoff teams in our region and likely as many or more in the other regions. We finished 4-6 last year and beat a 9-1 team 55-24. But that's the way it goes. On to basketball. :sneaky:
 
To me I would put a team in that has lost to all 10-0 perennial powers by a couple scores or less and is 0-10 in over a 10-0 team like Norton or Granville for instance this year.
So your logic is that Padua's 7 point win over North Royalton (1-9) is more impressive than say Nortons 49-18 win over University School? (49-6 in the 3rd when Norton pulled their 1's) Maybe Padua's win over the vaunted 1-9 Salem team that only beat Minerva, that's clearly a better win than Norton's 35-14 whipping of 9-1 Streetsboro who averaged 50 points a game against everyone else. This is next level stupid.
 
So your logic is that Padua's 7 point win over North Royalton (1-9) is more impressive than say Nortons 49-18 win over University School? (49-6 in the 3rd when Norton pulled their 1's) Maybe Padua's win over the vaunted 1-9 Salem team that only beat Minerva, that's clearly a better win than Norton's 35-14 whipping of 9-1 Streetsboro who averaged 50 points a game against everyone else. This is next level stupid.
Who said anything about Padua? I never mentioned Padua Franciscan. Where are you getting Padua Franciscan from?
 
This is why I have had the opinion that regardless of travel distance, money or any other reason that regions should be eradicated and each division should be the top 32 teams wherever you play on Friday nights. Yes, I have stated this umpteen times on various threads throughout the years and you're all tired of reading it. However, this post to which I am replying, is Exhibit A to my case and I, once again, felt compelled. 😂😂
I agree completely and have also been saying it for years
 
Who said anything about Padua? I never mentioned Padua Franciscan. Where are you getting Padua Franciscan from?
He probably meant this bait for me since I'm a Padua fan (and NoRo and Brecksville fan, too) and knocked Norton. On Norton, at 10-0, for the record, they deserve the #2 seed. If the weather is good, I'll go see them face Tiffin in the regional semis. It's great seeing two public, closed-enrollment small town schools like this do well.

For the record, NO, Padua does not deserve a playoff berth if it can't crack the top 16 in Harbins. Correct, 3 of its 4 wins WERE against weak teams and the Harbin system worked properly there by penalizing Padua. Go figure that NoRo, Salem, and Holy Name all went from playoff teams in 2022 to poor teams this year, That hurt.

What hurt worse is that Padua led and/or came VERY close in 5 of its losses to Watterson, Lake Catholic, Sandusky, Brecksville, and Walsh but couldn't seal the wins. Win one, they're in. Interesting, however, that Padua's "good losses" get it ranked #7 in D3/R10 according to Drew Pasteur's algorithm but only #17 according to Harbins.

Therein lies the dilemma. Many are saying 16 per Region is too many and should go back to 8. With such a poor measuring device as Harbins, we need 16 to cover the errors in selecting #5 - #8. Again, for the record, I think Harbins get the Top 4 correct. After that, Harbins are no better than a coin flip in picking seeds 5-12. Harbins don't discount wins against smaller schools enough and consider losses against teams with good records the same as losses against poor teams the same.

Forget public/private and compare Brecksville's losses to Wadsworth, Nordonia, and Hudson (D1, D2, all 9-1 or 8-2) with Westlake's three losses to D3 Bay, River, and Buckeye. With only 8 selected, Westlake would be in as #8 and Brecksville would be out rewarding Westlake for hiding in a smaller school conference. Drew Pasteur's method, by contrast, has Brecksville at #7 and Westlake at #16 D2/R6. With 16 selected, they'll get to settle this on the field next week. I predict Pasteur will install Brecksville as the favorite and that Brecksville will win.

For those that see this last point as moot, fine, then take the top 4 and be done. Harbins get those consistently right. Want to go back to 8 per Region? The data proves we then need better selection method than Harbins.
 
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Delphos SJ finished 4-6 with four of the losses to Marion Local, Versailles, Coldwater and Minster. Are they a title contender? Absolutely not. In Div VII there are only a handful of contenders. Okay, there's one. Just one. But I would almost guarantee we could/would beat 8 or more of the playoff teams in our region and likely as many or more in the other regions. We finished 4-6 last year and beat a 9-1 team 55-24. But that's the way it goes. On to basketball. :sneaky:
I feel your pain. I see Drew Pasteur has DSJ as #8 in D7/R26 but out of the playoffs. Our Padua is #7 according to Fantastic 50 but out for similar reason. It's hard to make the case for deserving of playoff berths when 4-6 no matter how tough the schedule. That said, I'm confident Padua would put a running clock on a few teams that did make the playoffs as we did in 2022. Gotta win at least 5 to plead that case.
 
He probably meant this bait for me since I'm a Padua fan (and NoRo and Brecksville fan, too) and knocked Norton. On Norton, at 10-0, for the record, they deserve the #2 seed. If the weather is good, I'll go see them face Tiffin in the regional semis. It's great seeing two public, closed-enrollment small town schools like this do well.

For the record, NO, Padua does not deserve a playoff berth if it can't crack the top 16 in Harbins. Correct, 3 of its 4 wins WERE against weak teams and the Harbin system worked properly there by penalizing Padua. Go figure that NoRo, Salem, and Holy Name all went from playoff teams in 2022 to poor teams this year, That hurt.

What hurt worse is that Padua led and/or came VERY close in 5 of its losses to Watterson, Lake Catholic, Sandusky, Brecksville, and Walsh but couldn't seal the wins. Win one, they're in. Interesting, however, that Padua's "good losses" get it ranked #7 in D3/R10 according to Drew Pasteur's algorithm but only #17 according to Harbins.

Therein lies the dilemma. Many are saying 16 per Region is too many and should go back to 8. With such a poor measuring device as Harbins, we need 16 to cover the errors in selecting #5 - #8. Again, for the record, I think Harbins get the Top 4 correct. After that, Harbins are no better than a coin flip in picking seeds 5-12. Harbins don't discount wins against smaller schools enough and consider losses against teams with good records the same as losses against poor teams the same.

Forget public/private and compare Brecksville's losses to Wadsworth, Nordonia, and Hudson (D1, D2, all 9-1 or 8-2) with Westlake's three losses to D3 Bay, River, and Buckeye. With only 8 selected, Westlake would be in as #8 and Brecksville would be out rewarding Westlake for hiding in a smaller school conference. Drew Pasteur's method, by contrast, has Brecksville at #7 and Westlake at #16 D2/R6. With 16 selected, they'll get to settle this on the field next week. I predict Pasteur will install Brecksville as the favorite and that Brecksville will win.

For those that see this last point as moot, fine, then take the top 4 and be done. Harbins get those consistently right. Want to go back to 8 per Region? The data proves we then need better selection method than Harbins.
Good analogy. I agree.
 
@raising4daughters The Harbin system does not get the top 4 teams right all the time. Just this year for region 9 they have Geneva in the top 4 even though Geneva is only the 8th best team in the region but the #2 seed.
This is pretty close to the actual rankings give or take one spot for each team.

1. Ursuline
2. Kenston
3. Chardon
4. Canfield
5. Aurora
6. Dover
7. St. Joe's
8. Geneva
9. New Philadelphia
10. Chaney
11. Alliance
12. CVCA or Gilmour Academy
 
This is why I have had the opinion that regardless of travel distance, money or any other reason that regions should be eradicated and each division should be the top 32 teams wherever you play on Friday nights.
This indicates a fundamental lack of understanding about why there are regions to begin with.
 
@raising4daughters The Harbin system does not get the top 4 teams right all the time.
I never said "all the time." I'm just going with probabilities based on history. 13-16 rarely beat 1-4, and 1-4 win Regions most of the time. I'd bet a mortgage payment that the winners of R9 and R10 will be from among the top 4. No, there's no guarantee that Harbins will right 100% of the time.

I just think things get really murky when trying to find 8, so I vote for 4 or the current 16 over 8.
 
In one region 7 or possibly 8 teams with winning records will miss the playoffs. The Harbin cutoff for this region was higher then every other region as well to get 2 home games, to get a home game and the cutoff to get in.
Still perpetuating this fallacy for Region 9? Ended up 5 eligible teams with .500+ missing the tournament.
 
@raising4daughters I don't think you can necessarily do that for region 9, most years region 9 is the exception rather than the rule. I would be willing to bet you the amount of your mortgage payment that the winner of region 9 does not come from the top 4 teams at least once in the next 10 years, and there would probably be a lot of close calls with the top 4 seeds almost losing in the first round. Especially if a team like Geneva gets a top 4 seed even though half the teams are better than them.
 
Don't think the OHSAA cares about finding the the best 8 teams, or about giving kids a chance to experience the playoffs. The reason the playoffs were expanded to 16 was because of Covid in 2020. Just a money grab to make up for lost revenue. Now that its here, its not going back. Not giving up the extra money.
 
@raising4daughters I don't think you can necessarily do that for region 9, most years region 9 is the exception rather than the rule. I would be willing to bet you the amount of your mortgage payment that the winner of region 9 does not come from the top 4 teams at least once in the next 10 years, and there would probably be a lot of close calls with the top 4 seeds almost losing in the first round. Especially if a team like Geneva gets a top 4 seed even though half the teams are better than them.
Geneva beat 6 teams with winning records (Including Struthers & Springfield (<- Mahoning County) both at 7-3) and 2 teams with losing records, 1 team with a .500 record. Their only loss was to Perry (In Lake County) who finished 10-0. I know typically that Ashtabula County football is generally not highly regarded, but I'm curious why you feel Geneva isn't that good, at least this season?

What criteria did you use to decide that Geneva is only the 8th best team in the Region? Is that Drew Pasteur's system?
 
What criteria did you use to decide that Geneva is only the 8th best team in the Region? Is that Drew Pasteur's system?
Records don't mean anything to me, I look at how good each team is irrespective of record, Harbin points or anything else. Drew's algorithm also agrees that Geneva is roughly the 8th best team in region 9. I look at who each team has played and the outcome of the games but also account for injuries and other unforseen circumstances that could affect the outcome.
 
Consider a D1 team in Toledo and a D1 team in Cincinnati. Do they have equal opportunity to play a schedule of local D1 teams?
As I recall, that's why the region system was put in place for football originally. Probably also back in the early 20th century, when the basketball, baseball and other tourneys were set up as well. I recall that argument being made a long time ago, when the playoffs 1st started, that there was so little schedule overlap between the rough areas of the State, NEO. NWO, Central Ohio, SWO and SEO that it made sense to to do that.

There's a good argument either way IMO, statewide or Regions. Depends on the quality of the rating system.
 
Records don't mean anything to me, I look at how good each team is irrespective of record, Harbin points or anything else. Drew's algorithm also agrees that Geneva is roughly the 8th best team in region 9. I look at who each team has played and the outcome of the games but also account for injuries and other unforeseen circumstances that could affect the outcome.
I won't belabor the point, as we have been down this road a lot of late. But it seems to me that your "rating system" is extremely subjective (too subjective) and that almost anyone could use those same factors and come up with totally different results. But I no longer want to go down that road, aside from that one statement.

I think Geneva appears to be a pretty solid team. I don't think they'll win the State Title or even the Region, as they are in with Youngstown Ursuline. Projecting past Hawken in the 1st round, if form holds, next up will be Chardon. So that might be the end of the line for their trolley this year. Were they to beat Chardon, next up would be Aurora, form holding. Very tough road to travel. 3 tough games to reach Ursuline. Not seeing it, but they have had a very good 9-1 year and are Conference Champs.

This is the one drawback of the playoffs, especially since all the expansions. I think more schools thought locally and valued their conference titles more than today. Now if you bomb out in the playoffs it's a disaster. I think it's too bad that that seems to be the prevailing sentiment. Nothing wrong with being the best locally IMO.
 
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