23-24 SW Ohio

Have to give Beavercreek some attention too. They have some losses, but also wins over Mason, Springboro and Fairmont. They've played a tough schedule and will be tested.
 
Northside24 said:
Make that make sense? Everyone wanted the RpI and no one did their homework when accepting it. Princeton hasn't lost to anyone inside of Ohio and beat MND head to head but is ranked lower? Has wins against #1, #3, and #4.

The out of state discarding of games is an issue too. Princeton gets no credit for playing Clarksville Christian and Dyersburg from TN and Niagara Prep from ? MND gets no credit for playing Cooper and Ryle? Purcell and Pickerington Central play out of town holiday tournaments. Mason plays the #3 team from Michigan next week. You can't tell me those are just thrown to the wind? What's the incentive to schedule those in the future?

I think there is a clear top 4 in Cincinnati and then there's a drop off:

1. Princeton
Then I think the MND, Winton Woods, Mason debate gets settled over the next 2 weeks when they play.

I don't see the other ECC schools challenging for sectionals. Someone is going to be unfortunate to see Lakota East who I think is truly the 5th best team in Cincinnati regardless of record (single digit losses to Mason, MND, Alter, Springboro, and Pick Central). Mason out-shot them 32-8 at the line last night and fouls were 22-7 while East played bad and still kept it close. But due to the RPI they'll be 9 or 10 even though they'd beat WC, Milford, and Lebanon easily. Think they'd be comfortable going after Mason or Winton Woods in the tourney and challenging for a sectional.
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From what I’ve been told, the current MaxPreps rankings, which is where that list is from, takes into account all games. However, the official OHSAA rankings that will start next Wednesday, will not take into account out of state games. This is due to the fact that not all states require their schools to enter scores so there is a chance that some records are not accurate. And since the RPI uses SOS and OppSOS, it could mess things up.

I understand their reasoning, but to tell coaches that in December/January is bogus. There’s going to be a lot of upset coaches come the draw based on how the rankings are being formulated.
 
SWO RPI said:
From what I’ve been told, the current MaxPreps rankings, which is where that list is from, takes into account all games. However, the official OHSAA rankings that will start next Wednesday, will not take into account out of state games. This is due to the fact that not all states require their schools to enter scores so there is a chance that some records are not accurate. And since the RPI uses SOS and OppSOS, it could mess things up.

I understand their reasoning, but to tell coaches that in December/January is bogus. There’s going to be a lot of upset coaches come the draw based on how the rankings are being formulated.
Click to expand...
So how does this affect teams like MND and Princeton? Both have losses to out of state teams? But both also have quality wins over out of state teams as well. Pickerington Central and Purcell have played 4+ games against out of state teams.
 
Northside24 said:
So how does this affect teams like MND and Princeton? Both have losses to out of state teams? But both also have quality wins over out of state teams as well. Pickerington Central and Purcell have played 4+ games against out of state teams.
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My understanding is that they just will technically "not count." So Princeton would be looked at currently as 7-0. Seems kind of ridiculous. I could see not using those games in the SOS and oSOS if they are worried about accurate records. Don't understand not counting it in the Win% part of the formula.
 
ThingsFallApart said:
Lebanon beat Winton Woods 54-46

West Clermont beat Milford 60-52
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Nice wins for both teams! WC showing they can win close games with huge wins over Milford and WW so far and Lebanon with a big one to
keep their win streak alive.

Definitely shakes things up in the ECC.
Interesting box score for Winton Woods tonight. None of the 3 Davis sisters played in the game, and the starting lineup was moved around from prior games. Anyone have any insight?

Really hard to judge the ECC right now. As a ENTIRE league, they have 2 non conference wins over D1 teams with winning records. 3 if you count WW win over Holy Cross which you should. League as a whole is 2-13 against D1 non-conference Ohio teams with winning records with those wins being WC over Seton and Milford over Harrison. Record could get worse with WW playing MND and Lebanon playing Springboro Saturday, both are big proving opportunities for the league.

I think the depth of the league is the toughest in Cincinnati night in and night out. The GMC is top heavy and the GGCL is terrible outside of the top team, but really hard to judge the ECC based off of non conference game results. Most are playing D2 teams and bad GGCL or SWBL teams.
 
Think the ECC is solid with the top 5 teams. (WC, WW, Milford, Kings, and Lebanon) GMC and there 4 top teams (Princeton, Mason, LE, and LW)
You match these 2 conferences up and who you going to take? ECC? I think Ill take the GMC based off this.
GGCL-MND took a beating last night from Copper (NKY). 74-55 New coach lost 2 in a row and now sees WW. I expected Seton to be a little better than they are but the GGCL is awful.
Dayton is pretty solid with the top heavy group they have. (Springboro, Beavercreek, and Fairmont)
Second half of the season should be fun.
 
caringbody said:
Think the ECC is solid with the top 5 teams. (WC, WW, Milford, Kings, and Lebanon) GMC and there 4 top teams (Princeton, Mason, LE, and LW)
You match these 2 conferences up and who you going to take? ECC? I think Ill take the GMC based off this.
GGCL-MND took a beating last night from Copper (NKY). 74-55 New coach lost 2 in a row and now sees WW. I expected Seton to be a little better than they are but the GGCL is awful.
Dayton is pretty solid with the top heavy group they have. (Springboro, Beavercreek, and Fairmont)
Second half of the season should be fun.
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ECC will be fun to watch down the stretch. League is completely up for grabs and those top 5 you mentioned still all play each other. Will find out more about Lebanon tomorrow against Springboro. Props to them for having Boro and Mason on the schedule. Still think Winton Woods wins the league if the have a full roster which they didn’t last night. West Clermont definitely capable of going on a run as they’re tried and tested over the past few years and know how to win close games.

Lakota East had a chance to throw in a wrench in the GMC by beating Mason but failed to do so. Princeton still the heavy favorite, essentially only having to beat East later this month to clinch a share.

MND didn’t do their new coach any favors with their schedule over the last month. Ryle-Beavercreek-Bellbrook-PLD-Princeton-Cooper-Winton Woods is a brutal stretch, judging by the score last night it caught up with them, but they’ll be battle tested come March. 2 losses to two of the top teams in the Midwest. Cooper starts 4 senior D1 commits and will challenge for a KY state title. Still have to go to Mason and Centerville later this month as well, so their placement is far from set. Still think they’re top 3 in Cincinnati. The 20 point Beavercreek win helps them after they took down Mason and Springboro. Beat Bellbrook by 30 who played Mason close and just beat Kings. The GGCL schedule kills them as Seton isn’t even good enough to call a quality win.

GWOC is wide open with Boro, Beavercreek, Fairmont, and Centerville, but as has been the trend in recent years, I think your regional semi-finals are going to be at least 3 Cincinnati teams, possibly 4.
 
This isn't perfect because I do not have all of the opp SOS numbers, but this is using the MaxPreps formula of...

RPI = (Win% * .4) + (SOS * .35) + (oppSOS * .25)
RPI as of 1-5.png
 
SWO RPI said:
This isn't perfect because I do not have all of the opp SOS numbers, but this is using the MaxPreps formula of...

RPI = (Win% * .4) + (SOS * .35) + (oppSOS * .25)
View attachment 52544
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Great info, that’s going to have a lot of irritated coaches come the draw. And points out glaring issues with not taking division or true SOS from a human aspect into account.
Outside of the top 3 which I think would be the consensus top 3 right now, Winton Woods penalized for losing to Princeton while Harrison plays CHL schools. Lakota East below Western Brown, penalized for playing Pick Central and MND while Western Brown challenges themselves with…. Loveland?

Eye opening for sure, thanks for posting!
 
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SWO RPI said:
This isn't perfect because I do not have all of the opp SOS numbers, but this is using the MaxPreps formula of...

RPI = (Win% * .4) + (SOS * .35) + (oppSOS * .25)
View attachment 52544
Click to expand...
Thank you for compiling all the numbers. That took a good amount of time on your part. Thank you.

My observations:

I hate the initial rankings. Lakota East should be much higher. Does anyone think that Ross is better than Lakota West?

I assume we are not counting out of state games. This was one of the reason given to coaches as why they went with MaxPreps instead of Martins. Martins had no reliable data to rank the out of state games. When did OHsaa decide to not count out of state games? I hate ohsaa.

The new system could lead to a lot more passing at the draw. Teams that know a team 2-4 spots behind them are better, so they pass a few times to let them go on the board first. Or they jump some one else that is one of the weaker teams.

Example could be Western Brown. They would have the choice of at least one open half bracket or maybe two. The could pass and let East and West go or the could jump in the Goshen Bracket or to play them first. Maybe they jump in with Harrison.

Western Brown would love to play Goshen or Harrison in the first round instead of one of the Lakota’s.

Looks like there is going to be some very upset teams this year. Why schedule out of state teams? You don’t want to be in a league that plays 14-18 league games. Makes everybody about 500. Think of the gmc. 16 league games. And say you go 16-0. That makes your league opponents records below 500. Hard to get a good strength of schedule when they play 2 out of state games. Only 4 other opponents.

Call me skeptical as we take the first look at it. I like the original max prep ratings better than these.
 
Rankings on maxpreps original site. Says last updated 1-4-23. I would assume these were calculated without any results from 1-4 or 1-5.

1. Mt Notre Dame 10-1 24.43
2. Princeton 8-1 23.40
3. Winton Woods 8-2 21.97
4. Mason 8-2 20.97
5. West Clermont 9-2 18.85
6. Milford 9-2 18.70
7. Lebanon 9-3 16.74
8. Kings 8-4 16.65
9. Lakota East 7-5 16.22
10. Lakota West 7-3 14.64
11. Goshen 9-3 12.92
12. Walnut Hills 7-5 12.22
13. Western Brown 9-3 12.18
14. Harrison 9-2 11.65
15. Ross 8-4 10.31
16. Turpin 5-6 9.42
17. Oak Hills 6-4 9.20
18. Seton 7-6 7.61
19. Fairfield 5-6 5.65
20. St. Ursula 5-6 5.61
21. Loveland 4-7 4.79
22. Mt. Healthy 5-7 4.14
23. Sycamore 3-7 .84
24. Middletown 4-7 .66
25. Monroe 5-6 .59
26. Little Miami 3-8 .51
27. Talawanda 4-6 .48
28. Edgewood 4-6 -.34
29. Ursuline 2-8 -.76
30. Withrow 5-3 -2.17
31. Hamilton 2-6 -4.44
32. Anderson 0-10 -7.29
33. Northwest 4-4 -7.95
34. Colerain 1-9 -8.45
35. Western Hills 4-7 -9.45

I like this much better. Lakota East and Lakota West at 9 and 10.

I love that Anderson is 0-10 and ranked ahead of 4-4 Northwest because of SOS. Northwest has beaten Shroder, St. Bernard, Cin. College Prep and Lockland. The worst team Anderson lost to was Little Miami. Reward playing bigger and better schools.

Have at the debate. Love to hear others thoughts.
 
SWOHHSfan said:
Was checking Lakota East schedule since they played only game vs Princeton LY after seeding Sunday, to see if the same scenario takes place this season. It does not.
Found something else very interesting.

Does anyone know why GMC didn't change their schedule this season?

Each team plays seven (7) teams 2 times and 2 teams only once. 16 total conference games.
The 2 teams played once USUALLY (every season but this year) change every year.
This season GMC kept same 2 individual games the same as last season AND kept them at same venue.
Didn't even switch venues.

Lakota East and Princeton play only once this season, same as last season, and yet both years the game is @ Princeton?
WEAK WEAK WEAK scheduling effort by GMC, could they explain away that laziness?
Princeton played Mason once in 21-22 @ Princeton. Mason win 54-47.
Princeton will play East once in 22-23 (Princeton win 63-58) and 23-24 (Fri 1/19) seasons both games @ Princeton.

Not real fair to East???
Click to expand...
Agree - definitely favors Princeton. However, Princeton and East still only play each other once, while Mason has to play both teams twice.
 
I'm all for coaches supporting the league they belong to but lets not get carried away calling the ECC the best league in the state. Again the ECC is a good league but they are top heavy just like the GMC. Ill take the top teams in the GMC vs the top teams in the ECC any day of the week. That goes for the middle of the pack GMC vs the middle of the pack ECC. Look at your non confernce schedule as well. You want to prove how good your team is as well as how tough your league is you shouldnt be playing St, Ursula, Colerain, Harrison, D2 McNicholas. Up until last night the best non confernce win the ECC had might of been kings beating wayne to open the season. West Clermont has a chance to open eyes for the league when they play Classic in the City.
Winton Woods in running the gauntley but cant seem to beat any of the tougher teams they play. Lebanon knocking off Springboro is a quality win.
I just dont think there is another team in that league right now that can beat a Springboro, Beavercreek, Fairmont or a MND or a Princeton, Mason, Lakota East, Lakota West.
 
SW OHIO Rankings in my opinion regardless of RPI:

1. Princeton (Cin 1)
2. MND (Cin 2)
3. Mason (Cin 3)
4. Winton Woods (Cin 4)
5. Beavercreek (Day 1)
6. Lebanon (Cin 5)
7. Springboro (Day 2)
8. Lakota East (Cin 6)
9. Bellbrook (Day 3)
10. West Clermont (Cin 7)
11. Fairmont (Day 4)
12. Centerville (Day 5)
13. Kings (Cin 8)
14. Milford (Cin 9)
15. Lakota West (Cin 10)
 
CGradADad said:
Rankings on maxpreps original site. Says last updated 1-4-23. I would assume these were calculated without any results from 1-4 or 1-5.

1. Mt Notre Dame 10-1 24.43
2. Princeton 8-1 23.40
3. Winton Woods 8-2 21.97
4. Mason 8-2 20.97
5. West Clermont 9-2 18.85
6. Milford 9-2 18.70
7. Lebanon 9-3 16.74
8. Kings 8-4 16.65
9. Lakota East 7-5 16.22
10. Lakota West 7-3 14.64
11. Goshen 9-3 12.92
12. Walnut Hills 7-5 12.22
13. Western Brown 9-3 12.18
14. Harrison 9-2 11.65
15. Ross 8-4 10.31
16. Turpin 5-6 9.42
17. Oak Hills 6-4 9.20
18. Seton 7-6 7.61
19. Fairfield 5-6 5.65
20. St. Ursula 5-6 5.61
21. Loveland 4-7 4.79
22. Mt. Healthy 5-7 4.14
23. Sycamore 3-7 .84
24. Middletown 4-7 .66
25. Monroe 5-6 .59
26. Little Miami 3-8 .51
27. Talawanda 4-6 .48
28. Edgewood 4-6 -.34
29. Ursuline 2-8 -.76
30. Withrow 5-3 -2.17
31. Hamilton 2-6 -4.44
32. Anderson 0-10 -7.29
33. Northwest 4-4 -7.95
34. Colerain 1-9 -8.45
35. Western Hills 4-7 -9.45

I like this much better. Lakota East and Lakota West at 9 and 10.

I love that Anderson is 0-10 and ranked ahead of 4-4 Northwest because of SOS. Northwest has beaten Shroder, St. Bernard, Cin. College Prep and Lockland. The worst team Anderson lost to was Little Miami. Reward playing bigger and better schools.

Have at the debate. Love to hear others thoughts.
Click to expand...
Looks like the "REAL" rankings will be released soon (mid Jan)....out of state games DO COUNT....all straight from the OHSAA :

Kind of stinks that current the seed meetings (bracket picking) is scheduled before the end of the season....a few games at the end will NOT be played when brackets are picked...which doesn't make any sense....and, why not just do it like football--seeds determine bracket placement...might as well go all the way if doing it like this....also interesting that while out of state games count, games vs. prep schools don't...so, some of those out of state tourney's may not be helping or hurting at all....
 
caringbody said:
I'm all for coaches supporting the league they belong to but lets not get carried away calling the ECC the best league in the state. Again the ECC is a good league but they are top heavy just like the GMC. Ill take the top teams in the GMC vs the top teams in the ECC any day of the week. That goes for the middle of the pack GMC vs the middle of the pack ECC. Look at your non confernce schedule as well. You want to prove how good your team is as well as how tough your league is you shouldnt be playing St, Ursula, Colerain, Harrison, D2 McNicholas. Up until last night the best non confernce win the ECC had might of been kings beating wayne to open the season. West Clermont has a chance to open eyes for the league when they play Classic in the City.
Winton Woods in running the gauntley but cant seem to beat any of the tougher teams they play. Lebanon knocking off Springboro is a quality win.
I just dont think there is another team in that league right now that can beat a Springboro, Beavercreek, Fairmont or a MND or a Princeton, Mason, Lakota East, Lakota West.
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Which coach said that?
 
Hoops Guy said:
Looks like the "REAL" rankings will be released soon (mid Jan)....out of state games DO COUNT....all straight from the OHSAA :

Kind of stinks that current the seed meetings (bracket picking) is scheduled before the end of the season....a few games at the end will NOT be played when brackets are picked...which doesn't make any sense....and, why not just do it like football--seeds determine bracket placement...might as well go all the way if doing it like this....also interesting that while out of state games count, games vs. prep schools don't...so, some of those out of state tourney's may not be helping or hurting at all....
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True. I was wrong about Out of State games. First official rankings come out this Wednesday, Jan 10. These rankings are different than Max Preps rankings.
 
SWO RPI said:
True. I was wrong about Out of State games. First official rankings come out this Wednesday, Jan 10. These rankings are different than Max Preps rankings.
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Who is in charge of coming up with the out of state records for teams? Is it MaxPreps? Is it the team that played the game? Is it OHsaa?

This was the reason the coaches voted to go with Martins to begin with. Because MaxPreps had several mistakes including non reported games, incorrect schedules and incorrect results.

So OHsaa made reporting to MaxPreps mandatory for their teams. They can’t do that for other states. I can’t see OHsaa doing any extra work to get all of those results. I do not have any faith in MaxPreps getting it right in year one. You took voting from the coaches, so I would assume you would not trust them to reports results from their opponents’ opponents. And who wants to waste time doing this research at the end of the season when you are prepping for the tournament and hopefully competing for a league championship.

This could get interesting. Do the coaches have any say to get this changed back to Martins after one year?
 
Added in the Out of State games and used the formula given by the OHSAA. Teams that play more lower division and out of town teams will have more variance in what the actual results will be as I only have SOS for Cincy/Dayton D1 and Cincy D2. Therefore, oSOS is not as accurate.
RPI as of 1-8.png
 
SWO RPI said:
Added in the Out of State games and used the formula given by the OHSAA. Teams that play more lower division and out of town teams will have more variance in what the actual results will be as I only have SOS for Cincy/Dayton D1 and Cincy D2. Therefore, oSOS is not as accurate.
View attachment 52662
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This is exactly why the eye test matters. Harrison at #6 and Lakota East at #11? Harrison doesn’t have a single quality win. Goshen at #9? Nobody outside of Goshen, OH believes Winton Woods is only one seed better than Goshen. I understand the subjective opinions that get introduced in a coaches poll, but relying solely on data is very problematic.
 
SWO RPI said:
Added in the Out of State games and used the formula given by the OHSAA. Teams that play more lower division and out of town teams will have more variance in what the actual results will be as I only have SOS for Cincy/Dayton D1 and Cincy D2. Therefore, oSOS is not as accurate.
View attachment 52662
Click to expand...
These rankings are... not good. I realize they are just numbers and data at this point, but they feel off.

Did Princeton not just beat Mount Notre Dame?

Not sure how Lebanon gets ranked above Milford. Maybe I'm missing something.

Harrison and Goshen, really? Rewarded for their easy schedule.

Hard to see West and East ranked as they are. East beat West and West doesn't have anything I would consider a quality win. East did play a tough early schedule, but lost quite a few close games (Springboro, Alter, MND, Pick Central, Mason).

You could put Winton Woods in a similar spot. Tough schedule (Princeton, Milford, Kings, West Clermont, Lebanon, MND) and.a lot of close losses (Milford and Kings are the biggest wins).

We will see how it unfolds.
 
JackAttack99 said:
These rankings are... not good. I realize they are just numbers and data at this point, but they feel off.

Did Princeton not just beat Mount Notre Dame?

Not sure how Lebanon gets ranked above Milford. Maybe I'm missing something.

Harrison and Goshen, really? Rewarded for their easy schedule.

Hard to see West and East ranked as they are. East beat West and West doesn't have anything I would consider a quality win. East did play a tough early schedule, but lost quite a few close games (Springboro, Alter, MND, Pick Central, Mason).

You could put Winton Woods in a similar spot. Tough schedule (Princeton, Milford, Kings, West Clermont, Lebanon, MND) and.a lot of close losses (Milford and Kings are the biggest wins).

We will see how it unfolds.
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You’re pointing out everything that we’ve been saying is wrong with the system.
Princeton beats MND but MND has played 10 of their 13 games against teams with winning records, so oSOS is better. Princeton gets docked for playing the bottom half of the GMC which isn’t their fault.

Lakota East gets penalized for scheduling the best teams in the state which hurts their win % in addition to playing the bottom half of the GMC. Double hit in terms of how the rankings are calculated.

The issue is that there’s no human element. Playing against a 5-1 D4 team holds the same weight as playing against a 5-1 D1 team, and teams will be penalized for having to play 12-14 games against bottom GMC and ECC schools a year vs. leagues like the GGCL that only have 5 teams.
 
Northside24 said:
You’re pointing out everything that we’ve been saying is wrong with the system.
Princeton beats MND but MND has played 10 of their 13 games against teams with winning records, so oSOS is better. Princeton gets docked for playing the bottom half of the GMC which isn’t their fault.

Lakota East gets penalized for scheduling the best teams in the state which hurts their win % in addition to playing the bottom half of the GMC. Double hit in terms of how the rankings are calculated.

The issue is that there’s no human element. Playing against a 5-1 D4 team holds the same weight as playing against a 5-1 D1 team, and teams will be penalized for having to play 12-14 games against bottom GMC and ECC schools a year vs. leagues like the GGCL that only have 5 teams.
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100%. The fact that they do not weight Division of opponents is ludacris. They do it in Football, they can do it basketball. That's why I do my own RPI rankings, which I believe are more predictive. Not necessarily how teams should vote, but projected margins between teams (subtract the RPI between teams). No measure truly encapsulates the difference between the top and everyone else though. Here is the first update now that most teams have played 12-14 games...
Pred Rankings 1-9.png
 
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