Ok, so here's another crack at this. Let's look at this from a best and worst case senario standpoint.
worst case scenario - You and many others want Elly to get extended. The Reds announce before next season Elly has been extended to 2035 for $500 million dollars. Elly is good, but not great, you've locked most of your money in one player and now his trade value is gone, not at that contract. This was the Joey situation the last 5 years.
best case scenario - Elly stays here and plays his tail off, becomes one of the best players in all of baseball. Face of the franchise. You're NOT ever going to be able to sigh him anyway, the Dodgers/ Yankees/ Phillies ect. will out bid you at every turn. So what if, you get to 2028, or depending on where the franchise is at, you deal Elly to get a BUNCH of top prospects from another team.
My point is extending Elly now will be very expensive, and it may not pay off and gives you very little flexibility.
But make no mistake, if nothing is done, he's here for another 4 years!!
14Red is not responding to me but y'all can read his nonsense and determine for yourself how little he understands about baseball contracts and best/worst case scenarios.
There is no guarantee that Elly is here until he becomes a UFA. The worst case scenario is Jazz Chisholm. The Marlins had a very talented player that everyone envied. The Marlins shipped him off to the Yankees last year because they knew that his next 2 arbitration years would be more than they wanted to spend. His UFA year is 2027.
It is quite possible that the Reds go uber-cheap on Elly, like the Marlins did with Jazz. They have already started down that path with him, by not already offering an extension. So Elly, one of the 5-10 best players in baseball, has a 1-year contract at 800,000, basically the league minimum. He is still pre-arbitration next year, and I'm sure the Reds will stay uber-cheap with him then as well. Then 2027, 28, 29 are the 3 arbitration years.
Assuming Elly plays near his 2024 level in 2025 and 2026, his arbitration salary will skyrocket in 2027. It would not shock me if the Reds traded him before that. Because they are cheapskates who care nothing for their fans. Just like the Marlins did with Jazz. THIS IS THE WORST CASE SCENARIO.
They are damaging the relationship with Elly and his agent by playing the lowball game. I proposed last year an early extension that pays Elly more properly now, and gives the Reds a discount in the future. Example:
2025: $4M
2026: $6M
2027: $8M (arb 1)
2028: $10M (arb 2)
2029: $12M (arb 3)
2030: $20M
2031: $24M
2032: $28M (age 30)
2033: $32M
2034: $36M
2035: $40M (age 33)
That is $220 million total for 10 years, not the ridiculous $500 million that 14Red spouts.
Why would Elly do this?
- Because he makes so much more money NOW, and in the first 5 years of the contract, than he does otherwise.
- He is financially set for life at age 23.
- He gets to stay on a team he seems to really enjoy, and in a city where he is beloved by the fans.
As payback to the Reds, he earns a little less in years 6-10, but is still earning megabucks and wants for nothing. Both sides win in this scenario. The Reds have their superstar at well under superstar prices. THIS IS THE BEST CASE SCENARIO.
Maybe the numbers are negotiated a little higher, but the concept works. See Hunter Greene. The Reds are damaging the relationship with Elly and his agent by not offering something like this yesterday. Each passing month the numbers that I laid out would be higher. Waiting until 2027 it becomes impossible, we have lost any leverage at that point.
Just letting Ellie go in 2029 (or sooner) is not a "best case scenario" unless you are a mentally challenged person who accepts losing. Truth hurts.