2024 Last Man Standing Contest (New Rules!)

[FirestoneFan]

I will let you figure it out. I figured I had the best chance of having a team go undefeated. And I see 3 and Marion Local is my #2 team. Guess I should have picked 3 loss Glenville.

 

[LS92]

How?

@brian1227, having no D5 pick, with both Hoban and Massillon winning D2, you're pretty much out of luck, unless the win-loss record tie breaker somehow saves you, which seems unlikely. What you really need to root for is for Massillon to face Hoban in the D2 final, have them sit down together and sing kumbaya together and have OHSAA award them both the D2 title for their joint vocal performance. In which case, there must be some other form of joint involved.

 

[TigerBeast78]

@brian1227, having no D5 pick, with both Hoban and Massillon winning D2, you're pretty much out of luck, unless the win-loss record tie breaker somehow saves you, which seems unlikely. What you really need to root for is for Massillon to face Hoban in the D2 final, have them sit down together and sing kumbaya together and have OHSAA award them both the D2 title for their joint vocal performance. In which case, there must be some other form of joint involved.

He is already out of luck it's the last man standing UNDEFEATED not winner of championship. Tie breaker in this contest is winner of title game

 

[LS92]

Short summary of tiebreaker rules:
(1) Your ordering spot of undefeated team;
(2) Number of state title winners in your list;
(3) Total combined win-loss record of your list of teams;
(4) Death match at the Hall of Fame Stadium.

There are two likely possibilities for death matches; one between two folks, and one between three folks. Others are possible, but less likely. I may need to find a Game of Thrones champion for me if we go the Trial by Combat tiebreaker. Personally, I think the fourth tiebreaker should be order of entrant, so those who submitted their entry earlier wins at that tiebreaker level, so that the Yappi crimson blood theme color does not apply to this thread.

 

[LS92]

If I got to pick a champion to fight for me in a Trial by Combat tiebreaker, I think I would select an "aquatic-related" fan of a school near 39°57'09.9"N 83°47'41.8"W. I dare not speak his name nor school, for fear it would destroy this thread, but I think we all know who this relentless fighter would be.

 

[LS92]

Through the end of the regular season, we are a collective 2164-273 weighted, 377-81 actual.
We have 1 of the remaining 3 unbeatens in D7; 1 of 4 in D6; 2 of 6 in D5; 2 of 7 in D4; 3 of 5 in D3; 3 of 7 in D2; and 0 of 1 unbeatens in D1. In total, we have 12 of the 33 remaining unbeatens in the state.
We ended up with an average 3.23 regular season unbeatens per entrant. All 35 entrants selected at least one team that went undefeated in the regular season. @FirestoneFan had the most with 6; @Kirtland4580 and @danville96 each had 5.
Only 2 of our 46 selected teams missed the playoffs: Canfield and West Jefferson.
There were 4 regions from which we selected no teams to go undefeated. Of the 24 remaining, we selected the #1 seed in 12 of them.

Schools in order of frequency selected:

Entries in order of submission:

Entries clustered by commonality of selected schools:

The MaxDivs column in the bottom image is the maximum number of state title winners the entry could have. Elims is the number of schools already eliminated from the playoffs in the entry.

 

[NEOsportsfan09]

Even though I didn't read it correctly (or maybe I did but didn't think through the strategy), I really like the new concept of this contest. Next year I just have to make sure I put Kirtland & Marion Local in the 1 & 2 spots and not the 6 & 7 spots

 

[LS92]

Even though I didn't read it correctly (or maybe I did but didn't think through the strategy), I really like the new concept of this ccontest. Next year I just have to make sure I put Kirtland & Marion Local in the 1 & 2 spots and not the 6 & 7 spots

Yeah, the one thing I would change is to replace the Trial by Combat tiebreaker with order of submission, since getting to see others entries and even the preseason poll results as I did is an advantage.

 

[David Wooderson]

My old brain is having a tough time figuring this all out.

 

[Sykotyk]

My old brain is having a tough time figuring this all out.

If your#1 pick goes undefeated you win. If more then one has the#1 pick go undefeated then you move on to tie breakers. If no one gets #1 right you move down the ranking to the highest rank that did go undefeated. If none then you move on to the other tie breakers.

 

[Sykotyk]

I already see a way to improve it for next year but I liked the approach this year. And thanks to @LS92 for keeping a running tally every week.

 

[David Wooderson]

If your#1 pick goes undefeated you win. If more then one has the#1 pick go undefeated then you move on to tie breakers. If no one gets #1 right you move down the ranking to the highest rank that did go undefeated. If none then you move on to the other tie breakers.

So, basically I need West Brach, Liberty Center and Kirtland to lose before Highland loses and I win, otherwise I lose? Do I have that right?

 

[10404life]

I see i have to get some good pick for next year

 

[FirestoneFan]

If your#1 pick goes undefeated you win. If more then one has the#1 pick go undefeated then you move on to tie breakers. If no one gets #1 right you move down the ranking to the highest rank that did go undefeated. If none then you move on to the other tie breakers.

I have 6 undefeated

 

[Sykotyk]

I have 6 undefeated

Only the best one counts until tie-breakers are in effect.

For instance, if any player has the #1 spot correct, then only them and other #1 spot correct players will advance to the tie-breaker.

 

[Sykotyk]

The concept is simple. Pick 7 teams. Rank them in order from #1 through #7. You will be judged by HOW FAR into the season (by OHSAA WEEK) that the team goes before suffering a loss. For this new contest, the loss can happen to any team, including out of state teams. When your #1 team loses, you then jump to your #2 team. And #3 team. #4, etc. Hopefully ONE of your 7 goes undefeated.

The only way to reach the tie-breaker is to have one team go undefeated from your list of 7.

If only one survives all 16 weeks, they're the Last Man Standing.

That's pretty simple.

If there's MORE THAN ONE participant alive going into Week 16, the tie-breaker will be WHICH RANK your team is in your 7 that goes undefeated.

If your undefeated team is in Slot 1, you either win or advance to the next tie-breaker. If no one has a team in Slot 1 (such as Marion Local loss), then we go down to the NEXT Slot. And the next. And the next. Until there's a participant with a team that has gone undefeated. If only one in that slot, they win. If not, we move onto the next tie-breaker which is:

If still tied, it will be HOW MANY STATE CHAMPIONS you picked out of your seven.

This is where the tone changes. This is why most picked one from all 7 divisions. Trying to pick the 7 division champs as this is a big tie-breaker. Especially if Marion Local goes on to win. We're going to have a ton of participants fall to this tie-breaker.

This is where spreading the picks out among all seven divisions helps you.

And if there's still a tie, it will be overall record of ALL SEVEN teams you picked.

OVERALL RECORD. Not just state championships. This is all regular season OHSAA recognized games among all 7 teams you've picked. And this is just among those still tied. So, count the wins and losses among the 7 teams you picked.

Still tied? In the exceedingly unlikely situation, you'll have a fight to the death after the Saturday night game at Tom Benson Hall of Fame Stadium. Or you can share the title. Doesn't matter to me.

This was tongue-in-cheek cause I really don't think this will need to be tie-broken. Next year I have a different plan to tie-break. But we're already into it this year and you all knew the rules going in. And i don't want to adjust them as @LS92 has done a great job keeping track.

For example, you would write out your seven like this:

#1 Millersport
#2 Vanlue
#3 Leetonia
#4 Richmond Heights
#5 Ashtabula St. John
#6 Beallsville
#7 Vienna Mathews

My example hopefully showed that you didn't have to pick one from each division. But for the one tie-breaker it would be advantageous.


Basically, for this year, we need to hope Marion Local loses to really cause chaos.

Next year, I'm thinking one of the rules will be that you can't vote for defending state champions. Help really make it interesting. I knew ML would be popular but they were clearly the #1 pick for almost everyone.

 

[LS92]

I like the "no repeat champions" idea. That definitely increases the difficulty. Tie breakers will be critical with that.

 

[LS92]

Schools with a single strike did not make the playoffs. Teams that are italicized have been eliminated during the playoffs.
New columns named 1 - 7 at the end of the clustered entries listing are the number of teams remaining in each respective division for the entry.
No new teams lost their first game in Round 1 of the playoffs.

@nupanther, @DubStat, and @Jaws31 are each mathematically eliminated from the first level tiebreaker. I mark them with a double strike to indicate elimination. Will update @nupanther and @Jaws31 for the images next week.
Everyone else is at least in contention still for a first-level tiebreaker, most by virtue of having Marion Local in the first slot.

In the event Marion Local loses at some point, things simplify greatly:
(1) @a_td wins with a Kirtland title in the slot 1 entry.
(2) @NEOsportsfan09 and @dukie rely on West Branch, @10404life relies on Avon, @David Wooderson relies on Medina Highland, and @iwasthatguy relies on Liberty Center, respectively in the slot 2 entries.
(3) @auscon and @FirestoneFan rely on Wapakoneta in the slot 3 entry.
(4) @Gamecock relies on Steubenville and @Kirtland4580 relies on Wyoming in the slot 4 entry.
(5) @FirestoneFan relies on South Range in the slot 5 entry.
(6) @FirestoneFan relies on London in the slot 6 entry.
(7) @redskinfbco92 relies on Anderson in the slot 7 entry.
In short, FirestoneFan has the most number of different ways to win in the event of an ML loss.

Note that some of the above also have ML winning it. If Marion Local wins the title, we will go to the level 2 tiebreaker because of a 27-way tie, which I'm not even going to try to unwind until at least the regional finals, and maybe later. That is, however, the reason for the new columns on the bottom spreadsheet.

Schools in order of frequency selected:

Entries in order of submission:

Entries clustered by commonality of selected schools:

 

[LS92]

The week after an entrant has been eliminated I stop updating their entry manually. So that means I did not update DubStat, Jaws31, or nupanther this week since they were mathematically eliminated last week. One entrant was eliminated this weekend, mentioned below.

With Wyoming and West Branch's losses this week, there are some brackets affected. @NEOsportsfan09 was eliminated with the West Branch defeat. The other losses this week to previously defeated teams, hence making their second level tiebreaker benefit impossible were: Garfield, Struthers, Chardon, Badin, WGH, and Gahanna Lincoln.

One other note: Sykotyk clarified that:

OVERALL RECORD. Not just state championships. This is all regular season OHSAA recognized games among all 7 teams you've picked. And this is just among those still tied. So, count the wins and losses among the 7 teams you picked.

So the official number of wins that matters is the number he is using for wins total. This differs from what I have in my spreadsheet, as I included all regular season, not just the OHSAA recognized ones, and postseason wins in my sheets. I don't feel like changing how I'm tracking stuff, so if/when we get to the final weekend and if that tiebreaker becomes relevant, I'll make note of it then.

Schools in order of frequency selected:

Entries in order of submission, ignoring ones that were eliminated last week (double struck through rows):

Entries clustered by commonality of selected schools, again ignoring previously eliminated:

 

[LS92]

The only first time loss this week was Wapakoneta. The four other teams we had picked who lost this week were Ansonia, Cincinnati Country Day, Garaway, and Aurora. So there are 24 teams that we picked still alive out of the 56 remaining schools. We picked 9 of the remaining 19 unbeaten teams remaining.
@auscon was newly eliminated this week with the Wapakoneta defeat. That makes only 5 of the 35 entrants being mathematically eliminated through week 13.

Schools in order of frequency selected:

Entries in order of submission, ignoring ones that were eliminated last week (double struck through rows):

Entries clustered by commonality of selected schools, again ignoring previously eliminated:

Thanks to @hdvhsmgr for providing the playoff finals summary each week. It is instrumental in being able to track things after the regular season is over.

 

[Sykotyk]

The week after an entrant has been eliminated I stop updating their entry manually. So that means I did not update DubStat, Jaws31, or nupanther this week since they were mathematically eliminated last week. One entrant was eliminated this weekend, mentioned below.

With Wyoming and West Branch's losses this week, there are some brackets affected. @NEOsportsfan09 was eliminated with the West Branch defeat. The other losses this week to previously defeated teams, hence making their second level tiebreaker benefit impossible were: Garfield, Struthers, Chardon, Badin, WGH, and Gahanna Lincoln.

One other note: Sykotyk clarified that:

So the official number of wins that matters is the number he is using for wins total. This differs from what I have in my spreadsheet, as I included all regular season, not just the OHSAA recognized ones, and postseason wins in my sheets. I don't feel like changing how I'm tracking stuff, so if/when we get to the final weekend and if that tiebreaker becomes relevant, I'll make note of it then.

Schools in order of frequency selected:
View attachment 68936

Entries in order of submission, ignoring ones that were eliminated last week (double struck through rows):
View attachment 68935

Entries clustered by commonality of selected schools, again ignoring previously eliminated:
View attachment 68934

For the sake of consistency we can just use ohsaa recognized games. I'll leave that up to you what is easier. Since you've done quite a bit to keep a running tally of things.

 

[LS92]

The first time losses this week were Medina Highland and Steubenville. The other losses this week we had picked were Ontario, Wheelersburg, and Minster. And, of course, Massillon, whose loss hit 13 of us. Previously the most entries hit by a playoff elimination had been 5 when CCD lost, so this one sure hurt.

So we have 18 teams still alive out of the 28 remaining in the state. We picked 7 of the remaining 11 unbeatens, only missing Bishop Watterson, Indian Valley, Northmor, and Columbus Grove from our entries.
9 entries still have 4 teams still undefeated on the season. With the Massillon defeat, there are only 4 entries remaining that could conceivably contain all 7 Divisional champs.
@doubtme, @43460, and @Bolts_Fan have differently ordered entries with the same 7 teams: St. Edward, Avon, TCC, Perkins, Liberty Center, Kirtland, and Marion Local.
@a_td's entry contains: Moeller, Hoban, TCC, Perkins, Liberty Center, Kirtland, and Marion Local.

Schools in order of frequency selected:

Entries in order of submission, ignoring ones that were eliminated last week (double struck through rows):

Entries clustered by commonality of selected schools, again ignoring previously eliminated:

Thanks to @hdvhsmgr for providing the playoff finals summary each week, and of course to @Sykotyk for the contest. Two weeks left to find out the Last Man Standing!

 

[FirestoneFan]

I guess I am still alive! Thanks for doing this! I will pay more attention to the rules next year, I have 4 teams remaning but 2 play each other this wek.

 

[LS92]

Yep.

I guess I am still alive! Thanks for doing this! I will pay more attention to the rules next year, I have 4 teams remaning but 2 play each other this wek.

You are the biggest South Range and/or London fan on the forum for the next two weeks while consuming all the forum's hatorade for the favored teams.

 

[LS92]

In the event Marion Local loses at some point, things simplify greatly:
(1) @a_td wins with a Kirtland title in the slot 1 entry.
(2) @10404life relies on Avon and @iwasthatguy relies on Liberty Center in the slot 2 entries.
(3) The slot 3 entry grants no one a title.
(4) The slot 4 entry grants no one a title.
(5) @FirestoneFan relies on South Range in the slot 5 entry.
(6) @FirestoneFan relies on London in the slot 6 entry.
(7) @redskinfbco92 relies on Anderson in the slot 7 entry.

Just re-posting this portion of the November 4th status for quick reference, but updated through completion of regional finals.

 

[10404life]

I am biggest avon fan lol

 

[LS92]

First time losses in the state semi finals: London and South Range. Other losses this round: St Edward, Hoban, Ursuline, Glenville, Danville.
@FirestoneFan is released from this mortal (contest) coil with the paired losses by South Range and London. @David Wooderson is eliminated via scenario (5a) listed below. @brian1227 and @SNUGGLES are eliminated via scenario (5b) below.
We selected 5 of the 7 remaining unbeaten teams, only missing Bishop Watterson (14-2 in 2023) and Indian Valley (9-4 in 2023). The only other state finalist whom nobody picked was Olentangy Liberty (4-8 in 2023). In total, our 46 selections covered 11 of the 14 state finalists.

Gonna run through the scenarios first, then share the updated spreadsheets after.

First off, because Division 2's final contains two undefeated teams within our selections, there WILL be at least one winner.

For simplicity, I will refer to @doubtme, @43460, and @Bolts_Fan as the trio, since those three have selected the same 7 teams but in a different order than each other, as their brackets simplify elimination of a variety of other brackets below.
I will refer to @TigerBeast78, @WGH94, @Bluestreak1980, @iveseenitall as the precarious eagles, since are eliminated by similar scenarios.
I will refer to @LS92, @Bellefontaine2, @iwasthatguy, @UnTouchableVoL33, @SLWT as the timid tigers, since they are eliminated by similar scenarios.
I will refer to @WJ-OSU-STEELERS, @Kirtland4580, @danville96 as the not so braves, since they are eliminated by similar scenarios.
I will refer to @Burgunbiased and @Worm02 as the unlucky irish, since they are eliminated by similar scenarios.

State Finals matchups
D1: R4 Moeller (14-1) vs R3 Olentagy Liberty (13-2): @a_td and @Gamecock each have Moeller in the #6 slot to help with state title tiebreaker.
D2: R6 Avon (15-0) vs R8 Anderson (15-0): Avon is in 13 different brackets, but only one bracket as high as the #2 slot (@10404life); Anderson is in @redskinfbco92 #7 slot.
D3: R10 TCC (14-1) vs R11 Bishop Watterson (15-0): TCC is in 33 folks' brackets, but they are not undefeated, but can win a state title tiebreaker for them.
D4: R14 Perkins (14-1) vs R15 Indian Valley (15-0): Perkins is in 8 folks' brackets for state title tiebreaker.
D5: R18 Liberty Center (15-0) vs R19 Ironton (14-1): Liberty Center is in 17 folks' brackets, but in only as high as #2 slot for @iwasthatguy; Ironton is in @ceebass13, @10404life, and @Mean_Green's brackets for title tiebreaker.
D6: R21 Kirtland (15-0) vs R24 Coldwater (14-1): Kirtland is in 30 brackets, but only in @a_td #1 slot; Coldwater is in 4 folks' brackets for title tiebreaker.
D7: R28 Marion Local (15-0) vs R25 Hillsdale (14-1): Marion Local is in 33 folks' brackets, but more notably in the #1 slot for 27 folks; Hillsdale is in @iveseenitall bracket, but since a Hillsdale victory eliminates his #1 pick, it is of no value to him.

Scenarios
If Marion Local loses to Hillsdale, then:
(1) @a_td wins with a Kirtland D6 title; else
(2a) if Coldwater knocks off Kirtland, then: @10404life wins with Avon D2 title, since he would beat @iwasthatguy on state titles tiebreaker; else
(2b) if Coldwater knocks off Kirtland and Anderson beats Avon, then @iwasthatguy wins with Liberty Center D5 title; else
(3) @redskinfbco92 wins in the event of an Anderson D2 title combined with losses by Kirtland and Liberty Center.

If Marion Local wins, then:
(4) if Kirtland loses, then @a_td is eliminated; else
(5) the number of state title winners mother of all tiebreakers contains 28 entries:
(5a) because @David Wooderson only has TCC still alive and there are entries on either side of the Avon-Anderson game who also have TCC winning, he is eliminated unconditionally;
(5b) because @brian1227 and @SNUGGLES only have TCC and Kirtland still alive, but there are entries on either side of the Anderson-Avon game with these winners, they are eliminated unconditionally;

(5c) if TCC beats Watterson or Avon beats Anderson, then: the unlucky irish are each eliminated by the trio;
(5d) if Perkins beats Indian Valley, then: @GoldenLions17 is eliminated by @dukie, and the not so braves, the timid tigers, the precarious eagles, are each eliminated by the trio;
(5e) if Moeller beats Olentangy Liberty, then: @Foster, the timid tigers are each eliminated by @a_td, and the precarious eagles are eliminated by @Gamecock;
(5f) if Avon beats Anderson, then: the timid tigers are each eliminated by the trio;
(fg) if Liberty Center beats Ironton, then: @ceebass13 and @Mean_Green and the precarious eagles are each eliminated by the trio;
(5h) if Anderson beats Avon, then: the precarious eagles are eliminated by @redskinfbco92 ;
(5i) if any two of Liberty Center, Avon and Moeller win, then @dukie is eliminated by either the trio or @a_td or @Gamecock;

(6) tiebreakers involving adding up wins include: Olentangy Liberty plus Anderson plus Indian Valley plus Marion Local wins. If this combination occurs, I suspect there will be much wailing and gnashing of teeth computing tiebreakers.
The dark gods of tiebreaker madness this week are rooting for the following combination: Olentangy Liberty plus Anderson plus Bishop Watterson plus Indian Valley plus Liberty Center plus Coldwater plus Marion Local this week. Worded differently, that is the Parlay of Doom.

Scenarios:

Teams:

Entries:

 

[Bluestreak1980]

Good Lord I’m glad you guys have the time to figure this out

 

[LS92]

Because he has Massillon (11-3, 10-3 official) plus an empty 7th slot vs @a_td having Moeller (14-2 if they lose) plus Hoban (12-3), @Foster is unconditionally eliminated by @a_td via the win-loss record tiebreaker. Just noticed this one.

 

[LS92]

Those eliminated with last night's Avon D2 state title were: @LS92, @Bellefontaine2, @iwasthatguy, @UnTouchableVoL33, @SLWT, @redskinfbco92, @Burgunbiased, and @Worm02. @Foster was also eliminated by the trio with the Avon win.

Updated scenarios after Avon beat Anderson for the D2 title:

If Marion Local loses to Hillsdale, then:
(1) @a_td wins with a Kirtland D6 title; else
(2) if Coldwater knocks off Kirtland, then: @10404life wins


If Marion Local wins, then:
(4) if Kirtland loses, then @a_td is eliminated; else
(5) the number of state title winners mother of all tiebreakers is now down to 16 not mathematically eliminated entries:
(5d) if Perkins beats Indian Valley, then: @GoldenLions17 is eliminated by @dukie, and the not so braves, the timid tigers, the precarious eagles, are each eliminated by the trio;
(5e) if Moeller beats Olentangy Liberty, then: @Foster, the timid tigers are each eliminated by @a_td, and the precarious eagles are eliminated by @Gamecock;
(fg) if Liberty Center beats Ironton, then: @ceebass13 and @Mean_Green and the precarious eagles are each eliminated by the trio;
(5i) if any two of Liberty Center, Avon and Moeller win, then @dukie is eliminated by either the trio or @a_td or @Gamecock;
(6) the Parlay of Doom has been avoided already with Avon's win over Anderson, eliminating 8 entries with that one game. Will worry about whether we need to add up wins or not as the finals games progress.

@GoldenLions17 can at best hope to go to the wins tiebreaker with @dukie and all the Avon winners following a needed Coldwater win for them.
@ceebass13 can at best hope to go to the wins tiebreaker with @Mean_Green and all the Avon winners following a needed Ironton win.

Eliminations scratched through (missing Foster's):

Remaining possible winners other than @10404life's ML-defeated-based scenario: