2023 SW Ohio early predictions

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Had 3 patients so far this week that have started their preseason training for High School soccer, so it got me thinking about what this year will look like.

Last year gave us some surprises.

Miamisburg tying Centerville and both going undefeated in GWOC play. Seton winning state after tying MND then getting crushed by MND then shut out vs Milford only to take down both in the playoffs. Alter moving to D3 and barely making it past a feckless Mariemont squad in the playoffs but making it a serious game vs D3 State Champ CCDS. Only 3 teams in the not so mighty GMC with winning records and Lakota East taking a share of the title. West Clermont making the ECC interesting after taking down Loveland and playing Milford very tough. Former D3 Waynesville moving to D2 and going undefeated including beating the GWOC champion on the way to State final game. Taylor taking their share of the CHL title for the first time ever. And lastly the SWOC playing poorly into the abyss and losing the last decent school they had with Ross leaving for the SWBL.

And a few expected results

MND, CCDS, Milford all dominated conference play. Centerville, Loveland and Summit all went deep in the playoffs.

Lots of quality girls with great results leaving their respective programs.

GGCL loses Kohls, Ott, Wampler, Hoog, Fields, Fredrich, Art, Smith, Burkey and Engelbrink
GMC loses Baird, Leinenkugel, Meinking, Kuerze, Cornett, Cox, Broadnax
CHL loses Fiore, Stokes, Cochran, Church, Vigran, Shoemaker, Tritch, Evans, Erickson, Bundy, and Vaughn
MVC loses Bortz, Seivering, Brock, Bello and DeBra
ECC loses Cook, Johnson, Riffle, James, Nagle and Harsha
SWBL loses Thompson, Freese, Almony, Neff, Miltenberger, and Armstrong
GWOC loses Gregory, Kunst, Walling, Cantor, Arnold, Sheets, Ford, Baker and Brooks
GCL loses Burger, and Kirkendall

Over half of those girls are moving on to play D1 soccer and a few more at other collegiate levels.

CHL losing some great players in Vigran and Fiore from Indian Hill who will leave a huge hole for the braves in the attack and Church and Erickson on the other end of the field. And the last of the impact makers at Mariemont are gone with losing Tritch. Cochran leaves Madeira but they retain their 2 top scorers from last year so perhaps not a huge loss for the zons.

CJ Moves to D1, Reading moves to D2 along with Alter. Bellbrook moves back to D2 and Seven Hills moves to D3.

I think Centerville's stout defense wins them the local D1 title this year. If Milford finds a keeper they could be the top team from SW Ohio D1. Seton could repeat if the refs can't figure out how to call offsides. Wyoming, Summit or Waynesville likely win D2. And CCDS will totally dominate D3 again.

CHL will have a very off year outside of Wyoming. Indian Hill and Mariemont will likely have their worst season in years. Taylor's Cinderella season will not repeat. Madeira could however surprise. Reading will do Reading things or worse in the playoffs, and Deer Park and Finneytown should just go ahead and join the MVC gray or SWOC to fit in better.

My guess is Cummings (Miamisburg) and Erbach (Waynesville) will have great senior seasons. Pennekamp in year 3 should have more success especially playing in the ever declining GMC but will losing Kuerze and Cornett have an impact on the Conferences leading scorer the last 2 seasons without their support and ability to draw teams attention away from her? Losing Kohl's will really hurt MND as they had nobody beside her score double digit goals each of the last two seasons. Milford has both top scorers and co-Coastal Carolina Commits Manning and Scanlon return, but lose their top assist maker and a quality keeper that had to make a lot of saves last year could put Milford on their heels and the ball away from their threats.

Just about 5 weeks away from the first summer showcases kicking off. I hope this year is as interesting as last.
 
 
Good write up.

Cummings (Miamisburg) I hear tore her ACL in club which will really put a damper on their season. Erbach wasn’t a senior? Holy moly feel like she’s been around for ever.
 
I can confirm Cummings tore her ACL. They had another impactful player who will be a senior tear her ACL late in the Club season as well. With Megan Gregory graduating that will leave Miamisburg in a tough situation as far as scoring goals. I think Katie will make it back sometime in the High School season, but that's just speculation on my part. Hopefully others will rise to the opportunity. Manning and Scanlon are not committed to Coastal anymore. Manning has recommitted to EKU, not sure if Scanlon has recommitted. A 3rd Coastal Commit from Mason switched to Ball State.

I would expect Mason and Loveland to be in conference championship talks. They always find a way to be good. MND has some good under classmen and a few quality rising seniors, not to mention a great Keeper returning. I would not count them out. But you're right Kohls is not easily replaced. Big, strong, fast, driven, talented she has it all.

At Waynesville we lost a good keeper, a great Centerback in Kuhns and Freese had a ton of assists. All 3 will be hard to replace, but with the SWBL changing up divisions at least we have a good non conference schedule to test the girls before the playoffs.

I would pick Centerville, Mason or MND to come out of the southwest for D1. Wyoming, Monroe or Summit for Southwest D2, and Madeira or CCD for Southwest D3.
 
I think Centerville's stout defense wins them the local D1 title this year. If Milford finds a keeper they could be the top team from SW Ohio D1. Seton could repeat if the refs can't figure out how to call offsides.
I appreciate your knowledge and detail specific to SW Ohio.

This line caught my attention, what does this mean?
 
I appreciate your knowledge and detail specific to SW Ohio.

This line caught my attention, what does this mean?
No disrespect to Seton they had a plan and stuck to it. The high line creates issues for both teams and referee's. Ref's missed more than few non offsides by Seton opponents just in the couple games I saw. Would those have ended up as goals and potential losses for Seton? Questions could be raised around it for sure. Even worse most times the indirect kick that Seton received from the offside was just outside midfield giving them a change of possession and the ability to pepper balls in or around the 18 on their own attack. That's a really unfair change of possession especially when it comes from a bad call in the first place. Seton did not have the fastest back line so if you break the line it means a 1 or 2 vs 1 with the keeper and usually the attack comes out on top with that. But playing to the strength of ref's not understanding the offside rule worked out well for them. To the tune of a State Championship. No one can ever take than from them and 99.99% of the people will never know the dynamic behind the high line that helped them win it.
 
No disrespect to Seton they had a plan and stuck to it. The high line creates issues for both teams and referee's. Ref's missed more than few non offsides by Seton opponents just in the couple games I saw. Would those have ended up as goals and potential losses for Seton? Questions could be raised around it for sure. Even worse most times the indirect kick that Seton received from the offside was just outside midfield giving them a change of possession and the ability to pepper balls in or around the 18 on their own attack. That's a really unfair change of possession especially when it comes from a bad call in the first place. Seton did not have the fastest back line so if you break the line it means a 1 or 2 vs 1 with the keeper and usually the attack comes out on top with that. But playing to the strength of ref's not understanding the offside rule worked out well for them. To the tune of a State Championship. No one can ever take than from them and 99.99% of the people will never know the dynamic behind the high line that helped them win it.
This is asinine.
 
No disrespect to Seton they had a plan and stuck to it. The high line creates issues for both teams and referee's. Ref's missed more than few non offsides by Seton opponents just in the couple games I saw. Would those have ended up as goals and potential losses for Seton? Questions could be raised around it for sure. Even worse most times the indirect kick that Seton received from the offside was just outside midfield giving them a change of possession and the ability to pepper balls in or around the 18 on their own attack. That's a really unfair change of possession especially when it comes from a bad call in the first place. Seton did not have the fastest back line so if you break the line it means a 1 or 2 vs 1 with the keeper and usually the attack comes out on top with that. But playing to the strength of ref's not understanding the offside rule worked out well for them. To the tune of a State Championship. No one can ever take than from them and 99.99% of the people will never know the dynamic behind the high line that helped them win it.
What has surprised me over the course of the past 3 years watching Seton is the lack of discipline these teams have playing against this strategy. Yes Refs do miss calls and when you have a whole sideline yelling off sides, refs have a tendency to blow the whistle but coaches/teams know this going into these matches. In Seton’s run the past 3 years, they have beaten very talented teams with this strategy – where is the preparation going into these matches? Where is the coaching? - wait one more second, run back and get into position after a transition, don’t start at midfield, start 5 feet behind etc etc. This is easy preparation but to me, it has to be practiced through repetition and not just told to these players.

What's the difference between an "unfair change of possession" from an incorrect interpretation of an offsides call and a team that plays extremely aggressive (borderline dirty) and continually gets away with aggressive play limiting opportunities?
 
I love Seton’s style for HS! The back line is in-sync and keeper plays aggressive on balls played over the top. Forwards attack and move really well. Complete teamwork. Great coaching. And players are bought-in, 100! It frustrates the other teams and especially their fans (who don’t know the offsides rule.) Why opposing coaches don’t adjust confuses me. That said, IMO, we caught a huge injury break last year. MND beat Seton 5-0 later in the season with the league title still on the line. In the regional final, Seton came back and scored 2 late with a crazy wind influenced regional final vs MND with Kolbs out with ACL tear.
 
I heard Seton has an incoming Frosh that was invited to tryout for US National team at her age group. I think she plays at Kings Hammer. Seton will be a tough out once again this year, got a lot returning!
 
I actually believe seton would have gone 16-0 the past two years if they played a “normal” style backline. They had a lot of talent on the backline and instead of winning games 5-2 or 5-4 or 4-3, they would and could have won 4-0 5-0 etc. The style now invites other teams in behind to score goals. Can’t argue success though, they are a super talented group who won state.
 
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