2022 CFP Projections

nwwarrior09 said:
Curiously caught on the ESPN ticker this morning that their "playoff predictor" currently gives Ohio State a 96% of being in and Michigan an 81% chance.

Barring a massive blowout, they seem to be at least giving lip service to the idea that the loser isn't sliding past 4th with what they assume teams 4 through 6 are likely to do and have on their resume.
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The lesson: Get rewarded for playing nobody. At least Ohio State played Notre Dame, albeit a home game in Week 1.

But the Big Ten is softer than an old man’s belly after a Thanksgiving feast. Michigan has played 11 creampuffs so far. Ohio State has played 10 creampuffs and Notre Dame.

And both might make the playoff because the incompetent committee can’t discern that the Big Ten stinks worse than a week-old discarded turkey carcass in your neighbor’s trash can.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
 
AEW Champion said:
The lesson: Get rewarded for playing nobody. At least Ohio State played Notre Dame, albeit a home game in Week 1.

But the Big Ten is softer than an old man’s belly after a Thanksgiving feast. Michigan has played 11 creampuffs so far. Ohio State has played 10 creampuffs and Notre Dame.

And both might make the playoff because the incompetent committee can’t discern that the Big Ten stinks worse than a week-old discarded turkey carcass in your neighbor’s trash can.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
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ND couldn’t beat their cream puffs tho 😂
 
zeeman said:
ND couldn’t beat their cream puffs tho 😂
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What does that have to do with Ohio State’s and Michigan’s playoff credentials, aside from hurting Ohio State’s?

You know my argument is correct, so you resort to a cheap ad hominem attack to change the focus.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
 
zeeman said:
ND couldn’t beat their cream puffs tho 😂
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Preaching to the choir. AEW can't accept that losses (especially bad losses) hurt a lot more than having a bunch of wins against tomato cans.

I'd also heavily debate that Penn State is a tomato can/creampuff. They gave at least equal and I'd argue greater resistance against Ohio State than Notre Dame did, and while they don't have any big wins, they on the same token haven't lost to any tomato cans. They have been a lot more consistent. If they are a creampuff, then the Domers certainly are as well in my book.
 
AEW Champion said:
What does that have to do with Ohio State’s and Michigan’s playoff credentials, aside from hurting Ohio State’s?

You know my argument is correct, so you resort to a cheap ad hominem attack to change the focus.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
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Don’t get your panties in a wad, just pointing out the team you think deserves to be in the playoff lost to Stanford and Marshall, at home 😂
 
nwwarrior09 said:
Preaching to the choir. AEW can't accept that losses (especially bad losses) hurt a lot more than having a bunch of wins against tomato cans.

I'd also heavily debate that Penn State is a tomato can/creampuff. They gave at least equal and I'd argue greater resistance against Ohio State than Notre Dame did, and while they don't have any big wins, they on the same token haven't lost to any tomato cans. They have been a lot more consistent. If they are a creampuff, then the Domers certainly are as well in my book.
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Georgia’s best win is Oregon 🤷🏿 They have played exactly two ranked teams and after Tennessee lost to SC giving up 63 I wonder how good that win was. TCU? Best win Texas? I would say ND and Penn St wins are just as good as Georgias schedule 🤷🏿 I can’t really make a good argument for Xichigan as their only good win so far is Penn St. This year is pretty clear cut. If Georgia, tOSU, TCU run the table they are in. If Xichigan runs the table they are in. USC has a good shot if it runs the table. Everyone else is out
 
AEW Champion said:
The lesson: Get rewarded for playing nobody. At least Ohio State played Notre Dame, albeit a home game in Week 1.

But the Big Ten is softer than an old man’s belly after a Thanksgiving feast. Michigan has played 11 creampuffs so far. Ohio State has played 10 creampuffs and Notre Dame.

And both might make the playoff because the incompetent committee can’t discern that the Big Ten stinks worse than a week-old discarded turkey carcass in your neighbor’s trash can.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
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So you would leave out the Big champ, and of course also leave out the runner up. Say UM loses by 1 point.
 
AEW Champion said:
Whoever loses the game should be out, no questions asked.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
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So let’s say tOSU wins by 1 in OT and USC loses in the PAC 10 title game and Clemson loses in the ACC title game 🤷🏿. And don’t give me two loss SEC teams or ND
 
zeeman said:
So let’s say tOSU wins by 1 in OT and USC loses in the PAC 10 title game and Clemson loses in the ACC title game 🤷🏿. And don’t give me two loss SEC teams or ND
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That’s easy. Georgia, Ohio State, TCU, Alabama. Sorry that you don’t like it. Michigan has a Swiss-cheese resume.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
 
zeeman said:
So does Alabama 😂 they’ve lost to the only decent teams they played
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Dumb comment. Won at Texas, won at Ole Miss, destroyed Arkansas and Miss State. Both losses on last play of the game to top ten teams on the road.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
 
AEW Champion said:
Whoever loses the game should be out, no questions asked.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
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Not if everyone around them loses. If TCU, LSU and USC all lose either this week or next, the loser of The Game, assuming it's not a blowout should be in over Alabama or 1-loss Clemson.
 
adselder09 said:
Not if everyone around them loses. If TCU, LSU and USC all lose either this week or next, the loser of The Game, assuming it's not a blowout should be in over Alabama or 1-loss Clemson.
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Could the committee say one-loss Michigan is unequivocally better than ACC Champion Clemson? I don’t think so.

And we all know Bama would have their way with Michigan. (And maybe Ohio State, too.)

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
 
AEW Champion said:
Dumb comment. Won at Texas, won at Ole Miss, destroyed Arkansas and Miss State. Both losses on last play of the game to top ten teams on the road.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
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So Texas is a quality win? Arkansas? Miss St? Now you’re just being stupid 😂
 
zeeman said:
So Texas is a quality win? Arkansas? Miss St? Now you’re just being stupid 😂
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If those aren’t quality wins, then Michigan has zero quality wins and Ohio State has one.

But make no mistake, those are quality wins.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
 
This is the worst Alabama team in years. No real headline wins paired with a handful of one possession games in which they are 3-2, losing to the two opponents that are actually good.

I don't think Texas is all that good, and they're easily Alabama's second best win.
 
I don't think USC will lose again. If all hell breaks loose, I'd assume Clemson backdoors in as a one loss conference champion. IMO Ohio State/Michigan would have to be extremely close and back and forth for that to not be the case.
 
So ND isn’t a quality win? Penn St? Your hat of everything BIG blinds you. Thank goodness we have people on the committee who understand playing in the BIG is a meat grinder
 
AEW Champion said:
Dumb comment. Won at Texas, won at Ole Miss, destroyed Arkansas and Miss State. Both losses on last play of the game to top ten teams on the road.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
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You mean the following teams:
4-loss Texas
3-loss Ole Miss - could be 4-loss here as they're in a tight one with Miss St
4/5-loss Miss St
5-loss Arkansas
 
AEW Champion said:
Could the committee say one-loss Michigan is unequivocally better than ACC Champion Clemson? I don’t think so.

And we all know Bama would have their way with Michigan. (And maybe Ohio State, too.)

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
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Yes they very easily could. The ACC isn't any good. They're easily the worst of the P5 conferences this year, whereas the B1G is likely 3rd out of 5.
 
adselder09 said:
Yes they very easily could. The ACC isn't any good. They're easily the worst of the P5 conferences this year, whereas the B1G is likely 3rd out of 5.
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The Big Ten is the worst of the Power Five conferences this year. It’s a two-team league with not even a lot of mediocrity following it besides Penn State and Illinois. Mostly it’s a bunch of bad teams this year, just with recognizable brand names.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
 
adselder09 said:
You mean the following teams:
4-loss Texas
3-loss Ole Miss - could be 4-loss here as they're in a tight one with Miss St
4/5-loss Miss St
5-loss Arkansas
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Yes, when you have a stacked division featuring teams like Alabama and LSU, not everyone in the division can scoot through with a great record like they would if they played in the Big Ten (or any other conference, for that matter).

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
 
zeeman said:
So ND isn’t a quality win? Penn St? Your hat of everything BIG blinds you. Thank goodness we have people on the committee who understand playing in the BIG is a meat grinder
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Where did I say Notre Dame isn’t a quality win?

LOL at the meat grinder comment. Most weeks are glorified bye weeks in the 2022 Big Ten. Rutgers, Indiana, Northwestern and Nebraska are atrocious, and Michigan State, Maryland, Iowa, Wisconsin, Purdue and Minnesota all range from below average to approaching mediocrity.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
 
AEW Champion said:
The Big Ten is the worst of the Power Five conferences this year. It’s a two-team league with not even a lot of mediocrity following it besides Penn State and Illinois. Mostly it’s a bunch of bad teams this year, just with recognizable brand names.

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
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I disagree.

SEC (barely)
Pac 12
B1G
Big 12
ACC
 
AEW Champion said:
Yes, when you have a stacked division featuring teams like Alabama and LSU, not everyone in the division can scoot through with a great record like they would if they played in the Big Ten (or any other conference, for that matter).

It’s true, it’s true. Trust me …
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This is the typical argument from the SEC humpers. Here's the problem with that argument, every other conference does the same thing.

You can't say teams like Ole Miss, Miss St and Arkansas only have bad records because of their conference/division, but then say that Ohio State, Michigan and Penn St are "scooting through with a great record" because the B1G isn't as strong.

In fact, the B1G plays 9-conference games. The SEC only plays 8. So the SEC teams, if they're that much better, should rack up a bunch of high win teams because they aren't playing the same number of conference games.

The SEC isn't as good as they've been. Alabama isn't as good as they've been. I'm not really convinced that LSU is as good as their ranking, their only good win is against Alabama who's down.
 
So ND isn’t a quality win? Penn St? Your hat of everything BIG blinds you. Thank goodness we have people on the committee who understand playing in the BIG is a meat grinder
adselder09 said:
This is the typical argument from the SEC humpers. Here's the problem with that argument, every other conference does the same thing.

You can't say teams like Ole Miss, Miss St and Arkansas only have bad records because of their conference/division, but then say that Ohio State, Michigan and Penn St are "scooting through with a great record" because the B1G isn't as strong.

In fact, the B1G plays 9-conference games. The SEC only plays 8. So the SEC teams, if they're that much better, should rack up a bunch of high win teams because they aren't playing the same number of conference games.

The SEC isn't as good as they've been. Alabama isn't as good as they've been. I'm not really convinced that LSU is as good as their ranking, their only good win is against Alabama who's down.
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Seems AEW is intent on trolling BIG fans or just stupid 🤷🏿
 
adselder09 said:
This is the typical argument from the SEC humpers. Here's the problem with that argument, every other conference does the same thing.

You can't say teams like Ole Miss, Miss St and Arkansas only have bad records because of their conference/division, but then say that Ohio State, Michigan and Penn St are "scooting through with a great record" because the B1G isn't as strong.

In fact, the B1G plays 9-conference games. The SEC only plays 8. So the SEC teams, if they're that much better, should rack up a bunch of high win teams because they aren't playing the same number of conference games.

The SEC isn't as good as they've been. Alabama isn't as good as they've been. I'm not really convinced that LSU is as good as their ranking, their only good win is against Alabama who's down.
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(y) Exactly, what AEW doesn’t seem to understand and maybe the ranking committee doesn’t either is the SEC only plays 8 conference games and on top of that schedules scrimmage games against 1AA teams at the end of the season. That means you could attribute one more loss to half of the SEC teams if they played 9 conference games like the Big 10. I have no idea just how “strong“ the SEC is this year, its record against power 5 conference teams is pretty average this year.
 
Summa said:
(y) Exactly, what AEW doesn’t seem to understand and maybe the ranking committee doesn’t either is the SEC only plays 8 conference games and on top of that schedules scrimmage games against 1AA teams at the end of the season. That means you could attribute one more loss to half of the SEC teams if they played 9 conference games like the Big 10. I have no idea just how “strong“ the SEC is this year, its record against power 5 conference teams is pretty average this year.
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I bet it's fairly comparable to most leagues this year. Big wins: Georgia hammering Oregon (biggest style points win anyone has), Florida squeaking by Utah, and Alabama eeking out a win on the road at Texas. Arkansas beating UC by a TD at home is probably the 4th best non-league win any SEC team had, by a lot.

Big and bad losses: LSU to Florida State. Mid to bottom tier Auburn and Missouri respectively getting pummeled by Penn State and Kansas State. Texas A&M losing a buy game to Appalachian State.

Most of the in-between consisted of games against mid to lower tier ACC and PAC teams.
 
A lot of middle-ish tier SEC team (4th/5th through 9th/10th) beat somebody shaky to bad in the ACC or PAC like Arizona, Georgia Tech, Pitt, or Miami along with three Sun Belt/MAC/FCS teams. 2-4 wins against middle and bottom SEC teams.
 
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