2019 Bengals

49ers traded a 2nd rd. draft choice for Jimmy G.( 2nd rd. pick by N. E. ) Look at the best teams in the play offs. SF has Jimmy G. NE : Tom Brady a 5th rd. pick, Seattle : Russell Wilson a 3rd or 4th rd. pick, New Orleans : Brees a 2nd rd. pick by San Diego, even Green Bay with Rodgers was a late 1st rd. pick and backed up Brett Favre early in his career. The Eagles won their Super Bowl with Nick Foles ( 3rd. rd. pick ) at the helm not Carson Wentz. The team makes the QB not the other way around. If Bengals draft Burrow I am confident he will not be a Bengal in 5 years it will more than likely be a disaster, not because of Burrow but because Cincy needs a lot more around him for a QB to succeed.
 
You can always find specific examples of later picks that exceeded expectations.

Since 2000, 13 QBs were taken with the first pick. Of those, 7 have have been successes- Goff, Luck, Newton, Stafford, Eli Manning, Palmer and Vick. Jury is still out on Mayfield and maybe Winston. Bradford and Alex Smith are "neutrals." David Carr and Russell were failures.

There's no magic formula, but I can't see a situation where the Bengals would pass on a consensus #1 pick record setting QB who grew up in southern Ohio. That would be a problem on many levels, including PR. The only other plausible scenario would be to get an unbelievable haul in a trade for the pick.
 
clarkgriswold said:
You can always find specific examples of later picks that exceeded expectations.

Since 2000, 13 QBs were taken with the first pick. Of those, 7 have have been successes- Goff, Luck, Newton, Stafford, Eli Manning, Palmer and Vick. Jury is still out on Mayfield and maybe Winston. Bradford and Alex Smith are "neutrals." David Carr and Russell were failures.

There's no magic formula, but I can't see a situation where the Bengals would pass on a consensus #1 pick record setting QB who grew up in southern Ohio. That would be a problem on many levels, including PR. The only other plausible scenario would be to get an unbelievable haul in a trade for the pick.
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You can’t pass on Burrow because Brady, Brees, and Wilson weren’t first round picks. That’s just stupid. The Bengals have a poor record, but overall the talent level isn’t that poor. I’ve already outlined a blue print that could be successful.
 
eastside_purple said:
You can’t pass on Burrow because Brady, Brees, and Wilson weren’t first round picks. That’s just stupid. The Bengals have a poor record, but overall the talent level isn’t that poor. I’ve already outlined a blue print that could be successful.
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It is more stupid to think Burrow is going to turn this ream around. Build a team 1st than draft a QB.
 
clarkgriswold said:
You can always find specific examples of later picks that exceeded expectations.

Since 2000, 13 QBs were taken with the first pick. Of those, 7 have have been successes- Goff, Luck, Newton, Stafford, Eli Manning, Palmer and Vick. Jury is still out on Mayfield and maybe Winston. Bradford and Alex Smith are "neutrals." David Carr and Russell were failures.

There's no magic formula, but I can't see a situation where the Bengals would pass on a consensus #1 pick record setting QB who grew up in southern Ohio. That would be a problem on many levels, including PR. The only other plausible scenario would be to get an unbelievable haul in a trade for the pick.
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That is why the Bengals are the Bengals. Drafted Akili Smith instead of trading with New Orleans who were willing to give Bengals numerous draft choices.
 
eastside_purple said:
Comparing Burrow to Akili Smith is aggressively stupid.
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In your mind. Hind sight is 20 / 20. Smith at the time was considered a no miss, no brainer pick. As was" The Throwin Samoan " Jack Thompson who set all kind of records at Washington State. The team makes the QB not the other way around. Mike Brown is an amateur, have no confidence in his ability with a top pick, trade it and hopefully with a lot of picks get one or 2 good players.
 
Stirred not Shaken said:
In your mind. Hind sight is 20 / 20. Smith at the time was considered a no miss, no brainer pick. As was" The Throwin Samoan " Jack Thompson who set all kind of records at Washington State. The team makes the QB not the other way around. Mike Brown is an amateur, have no confidence in his ability with a top pick, trade it and hopefully with a lot of picks get one or 2 good players.
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Smith wasn’t considered a no miss pick. That pick raised a lot of eyebrows at the time. He didn’t have a tenth of the credentials of Burrow.
 
The Bengals aren't a lost cause on offense at the skills positions. Mixon is good at RB, Bernard is a good 3rd down back, Boyd is solid at WR, Ross is decent at WR2 if and when healthy and Eifert and Uzomah are serviceable tight ends. Use free agency and the draft to build the o-line and you're in business. From a skills position perspective, the Bengals are in a much better position that their draft spot might suggest.

For every QB that was drafted later that was a success, I can find an offensive lineman drafted late that was a success.
 
Yeah, a good blue print is to draft Burrow, possibly trade Dalton for a 3rd rd pick or better this year (if not keep him, slowly integrate Burrow next year, and take the comp pick); invest heavily on OL in draft and FA; spend remainder of draft capital on upgrading the horrific line backing group. I’d say with a decent OL, they could win 5-6 games next year and build from there.
 
Stirred not Shaken said:
In your mind. Hind sight is 20 / 20. Smith at the time was considered a no miss, no brainer pick. As was" The Throwin Samoan " Jack Thompson who set all kind of records at Washington State. The team makes the QB not the other way around. Mike Brown is an amateur, have no confidence in his ability with a top pick, trade it and hopefully with a lot of picks get one or 2 good players.
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I think "no brainer" are the operative words here. He scored a 16 on his first Wonderlic and was unlikely to ever grasp an NFL offense. That's why Couch and McNabb went ahead of him. Brown could have gotten that Ricky Williams haul for that pick. I'm afraid there's no Mike Ditka in the NFL to offer that up this year.
 
clarkgriswold said:
For every QB that was drafted later that was a success, I can find an offensive lineman drafted late that was a success.
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Yeah, there’s no guarantee Brown will hit on two first rd picks if they trade Burrow and the payoff will be a lot less. I mean, if you don’t trust the Bengals to draft well, why give them two picks and have them actually make decisions on those picks, that’s how we ended up with Ross a couple years ago.
 
People need to remember, Burrow is running the Saints offense with great precision (nearly 80% completion rate) against very high level competition. He isn’t running a gimmick offense like Oklahoma or those run and shoot offenses (Klingler) against low defensive talent level leagues. Passing on him is like passing on Peyton Manning in my mind. And if you pass on him, you still need a qb after next season as Dalton is pretty much done here.
If Burrow weren’t available, I’d be inclined to agree to draft another position or trade out of it....as Tua is a risk and no other QB is worth that draft position.
 
eastside_purple said:
Smith wasn’t considered a no miss pick. That pick raised a lot of eyebrows at the time. He didn’t have a tenth of the credentials of Burrow.
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Yeah just did a google search of 1999 Mock draft and nearly every link to an old website said something about how raw he was. Since when does raw = can't miss pick?
 
I recall hearing Bill Polian tell a story about how he flew in Smith prior to the draft for a workout just to pique Mike Brown's interest. Had zero interest in drafting him. The Colts took Edgerrin James. The rest is history.
 
All these QB's the Browns and Bengals have drafted in the past, most of them failed because of the team they were on. If Burrow is drafted by the Bengals and I have no doubt he will be, he will no longer be a Bengal after 4 years that I have no doubt.
 
Stirred not Shaken said:
All these QB's the Browns and Bengals have drafted in the past, most of them failed because of the team they were on. If Burrow is drafted by the Bengals and I have no doubt he will be, he will no longer be a Bengal after 4 years that I have no doubt.
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Most of them failed because they were terrible QBs. That's the same reason none of them were successful starters after leaving the Bengals and Browns, sans Palmer who coincidentally had success in Cincinnati.
 
Stirred not Shaken said:
All these QB's the Browns and Bengals have drafted in the past, most of them failed because of the team they were on. If Burrow is drafted by the Bengals and I have no doubt he will be, he will no longer be a Bengal after 4 years that I have no doubt.
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Or, maybe, bad teams and bad organizations draft bad players including quarterbacks.
 
Stirred not Shaken said:
Steve Young is an excellent ex. of what I am talking about. With Tampa Bay he had horrible stats. goes to Frisco and becomes a HOF. End of story.
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So you think Tim Couch, Johnny Manzel, David Klingler and Akili Smith were only held back by being a Brown or Bengal?

I wonder how Peyton Manning got so lucky after joining a 3-13 team?
 
So what do you Bengals fans think about trading the #1 to pick up some additional help? Tua should still be there at 6 or 7 maybe later. If he’s not 100% he can sit behind Andy till 2021. I think he’ll be a better NFL QB than Burrows for the long haul. Just a thought.
 
I wouldn’t necessarily be against trading back, but it would be somewhat risky given Tua’s injury. The Bengals have a recent history of draft either drafting injured guys for value or just simply bad luck of having their early picks get injured. I think it would be a tough sell passing on Burrow or Young and trading back to take an injured Tua.
 
eastside_purple said:
You can’t pass on Burrow because Brady, Brees, and Wilson weren’t first round picks. That’s just stupid. The Bengals have a poor record, but overall the talent level isn’t that poor. I’ve already outlined a blue print that could be successful.
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You are 100% correct here EP and your blueprint is sound. Other reasons to take Burrow:

* Drafting Burrow will inject immediate enthusiasm & hope into the Bengals franchise. NOTHING else Brown does will trigger as big a boost in season ticket and merchandise sales as this would.

* The Bengals already have the equivalent of multiple 1st round draft picks this year given that last years #1 pick will be coming back from injury. And since he's an offensive lineman it's a huge step in fixing the Bengals biggest problem.

* Modern 1st round college QB's are much closer to being a sure thing then QB's drafted even 10 years ago. These guys have been learning how to play QB at a high level since they were 10 years old. The failure rate for 1st round QB's appears to be plummeting. On top of that most of these guys are good right from the get go.

Off the top of my head let's just look at the last few years:

2017: Mahomes & Watson are great and the jury is still out on Turbisky.

2018: Jackson, Allen, Mayfield & Darnold are all on a path to being very good to great. Only Josh Rosen appears to be a bust.

2019: Jones of the Giants looks like he's going to be good. The jury is still out on Haskins.

So over the last 3 years of 1st round QB picks only Josh Rosen is a proven bust. And IMO the worst case scenario is that Haskins & Turbisky will join him though I suspect one of these 2 will end up having a nice career.

Drafting Burrow is the ONLY rational move for the Bengals to make. IMO of course.
 
lotr10 said:
You are 100% correct here EP and your blueprint is sound. Other reasons to take Burrow:

* Drafting Burrow will inject immediate enthusiasm & hope into the Bengals franchise. NOTHING else Brown does will trigger as big a boost in season ticket and merchandise sales as this would.

* The Bengals already have the equivalent of multiple 1st round draft picks this year given that last years #1 pick will be coming back from injury. And since he's an offensive lineman it's a huge step in fixing the Bengals biggest problem.

* Modern 1st round college QB's are much closer to being a sure thing then QB's drafted even 10 years ago. These guys have been learning how to play QB at a high level since they were 10 years old. The failure rate for 1st round QB's appears to be plummeting. On top of that most of these guys are good right from the get go.

Off the top of my head let's just look at the last few years:

2017: Mahomes & Watson are great and the jury is still out on Turbisky.

2018: Jackson, Allen, Mayfield & Darnold are all on a path to being very good to great. Only Josh Rosen appears to be a bust.

2019: Jones of the Giants looks like he's going to be good. The jury is still out on Haskins.

So over the last 3 years of 1st round QB picks only Josh Rosen is a proven bust. And IMO the worst case scenario is that Haskins & Turbisky will join him though I suspect one of these 2 will end up having a nice career.

Drafting Burrow is the ONLY rational move for the Bengals to make. IMO of course.
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I’m not as “sold” on Burrow as you, but I think he’s a no brainer to pick if they are going to actually draft first. I compared him to Manning, not necessarily that I think he’s at that level, but just as a consensus pick at #1. That said, I have no reason to believe he won’t be a pretty successful NFL QB, if not an elite one.
 
eastside_purple said:
I’m not as “sold” on Burrow as you, but I think he’s a no brainer to pick if they are going to actually draft first. I compared him to Manning, not necessarily that I think he’s at that level, but just as a consensus pick at #1. That said, I have no reason to believe he won’t be a pretty successful NFL QB, if not an elite one.
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I think he's in a position even better than Manning in that his second is a guy with a broken hip.
 
eastside_purple said:
I’m not as “sold” on Burrow as you, but I think he’s a no brainer to pick if they are going to actually draft first. I compared him to Manning, not necessarily that I think he’s at that level, but just as a consensus pick at #1. That said, I have no reason to believe he won’t be a pretty successful NFL QB, if not an elite one.
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People weren't sold on Mahomes or Allen or Jackson or most of the recent 1st round QB picks either. It just seems like someting is changing fast in the NFL with respect to these high draft pick QB's. First they're very good right out of the gate and second they can be immediately inserted into the starting line-up. And they come CHEAP!
 
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