Stark County Football Week 6

Starkcountylegend

Well-known member
The Gridiron Gold Edition

Picks
Week5
15-1

Season
68-22 76%

Random Rants

A. Hats off to the Alliance Aviators, they were my only loss this week! I have said numerous times throughout the season, this will be a team that will improve by leaps and bounds as the season progresses, it may not always show up on the scoreboard, but you can see the team improving as we roll through the season. Alliance drew a bad match-up the first week of the season with Lake, while I like these teams playing and feel this should be a yearly game, a young team going up against a excellent defense on the road was a recipe for disaster. Beating Carrollton, even at home is not a small feat, they are very well coached, so this was a big win for the Aviators, one they can grow on.

B. Speaking of small schools, what a job by East Canton, nearly pulling off the upset against a solid Ridgewood squad, that could be a dangerous team in D5 come playoff time. The Hornets should be favorites in their next three games, if they can win them, then they have a shot at hosting a first round playoff game.

C. Massillon played St. Eds better than either Mentor or Elder, so yes they lost by 17, but that shows they possess a lot of talent. Massillon is still probably a double digit favorite over any team in Region 7, even though it appears that the Tigers are going to have to win some playoff games on the road, as they currently sit 10th in the region. The Tigers are this low because of two issues, they have played a demanding schedule, and they are struggling to get Level 2 points because the three teams they beat are a combined 2-11. No one could have forecasted that both Warren and Reynoldsburg would be struggling to win games, but both teams should pick up at least three wins before the season closes which will help the Level 2 points for Massillon.

D. For all the GlenOak fans that were upset that I didn't put them in the top 10 this season, as I said. let me see them beat someone with a pulse, the only win was over a bad Shaker Heights team that may end up winless. The Eagles are improved, but we may not see a big jump in their record until next season, they will be dogs against the rest of their schedule.

E. Let's go back to when we talked about Green playing the Sisters of the Poor in their OOC schedule, sure it built up a bank of computer points, but it appears that it really didn't benefit them in preparation for the FED schedule. Green needs to finish 3-2 to make sure they get a first round home game for the playoffs, which is highly possible.

F. Speaking of teams improving, McKinley continues to show week to week improvements! They scheduled four quality OOC games, the results outside of Wayne were not great, but playing up has made them better. Unfortunately, I think the high point for them come playoff time, will be one win, and then out, hopefully not getting blown out in the second game, as Region 1 is loaded.

G. Is Perry headed back to the days of Spider Miller and Boedicker, where getting to .500 on the season was a victory? Perry's defense was horrendous against Jackson, hopefully this is just an off year. I think its important for the Panthers to at least make the playoffs, the extra game gives the team more practice time, even if they lose.

H. Jackson is still the favorite for the FED, with McKinley and Lake breathing down their necks. If Jackson's defense plays like it did against Perry this week at Lake then they may lose their grasp of the Federal League Title. And no, for even the most myopic Polar Bear backers, Jackson is not a threat to win Region 1, they would really need some upsets to occur for them to win more than one game.

I. The Fearless Fairless Falcons, go on the road and pummel Orrville, while the Red Raider are bad, it reinforces my belief that Fairless is well coached and very solid on both side of the ball.

J. Hoover's defense is improving, I'm sure they wish they had that Mansfield game back, as they still have MCK, Perry, Lake, Green and Jackson left on the schedule. Right now, Hoover is sitting 8th in Region 7, they probably need to go 3-2 to host a first round game.

K. Canton South probably can't wait to get to the PAC next year after giving 63 points to West Branch. I think the PAC makes alot more sense for South!

L. Louisville another beatdown, another lack luster offensive performance, this season is spiraling out of control for the Leopards. If Louisville remains an Indy, they will have to continue to rely on Federal League teams to fill out their schedule, and this is just not feasible unless winning 5 or 6 games a year is what your shooting for. Outside of Alliance, it's doubtful any of the EBC schools will schedule them, so how do you set up a schedule, where you at least have an opportunity to win 8 or 9 games? Has there been any action by the Leps AD to find league affiliation outside of the FED, which would be a shotgun marriage? Wouldn't it make sense for the Leps to look at Metro Athletic, or Northeast 8?

Schedule with Lines

Jackson (-2.5) @ Lake
Massillon (-5) @ Fitch
McKinley (-3.5) @ Hoover
Perry (-7) @ Louisville
GlenOak @ Green (-14)
Canton South (-3) @ Marlington
Howland @ West Branch (-17)
Alliance @ Carrollton (-11)
Minerva @ Salem (-35)
CVCA @ Fairless (-4)
Orrville @ NW (-20)
Tuslaw @ Manchester (-17.5)
Indian Valley (-5) @ Sandy Valley
East Canton (-14) @ Newcomerstown
CCC @ Lucas (-15)
Rootstown (-8) @ STA
Malvern (-14) @ Strasburg

Top 10
1. Massillon
2. Jackson
3. Lake
4. McKinley
5. Hoover
6. Green
7. Perry
8. Fairless
9. Sandy Valley
10. East Canton

Coming
Playoff Projections
Game Picks
 
 
M*A*S*S*ILLON - TIGERS COULD USE A LITTLE MEDICAL AID
PUPS
JACKSON
HOOVER
LAKE
A HEALTHY GREEN
PERRY
FAIRLESS
 
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Analysis: With this bracket, it looks like Mck and GlenOak would be one and done. Jackson has a good chance to make it to the Final 8, but would more than likely fail to handle Mentor or Ed's

Region 7
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Analysis: Hoover could make a run at the top portion of the bracket. Good chance for a Lake and Green rematch. There really no one in the bottom 8 portion of the bracket that can stay within 10 points of Massillon, so they should make it to the finals of the region

Region 9
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Analysis: Pretty barren landscape for Stark County teams, both Marlington and Louisville could sneak it with a couple of wins. Dover looks pretty strong, so Alliance would likely be one and done.

Region 13

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Analysis: Wow, what a loaded bracket! West Branch appears to have a clear path towards the finals. South needs to win a couple of more to get away from Perry in the 1st round. NW would draw a tough match-up with Ursuline, but Salem has already crushed Beaver Local. Kirtland would be a hard match up for Fairless, their record is very deceiving.

Region 17

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Analysis: Jefferson Area will be a rough matchup for Sandy Valley, they play a much stronger schedule than the Cardinals

Region 21

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Analysis: Brookfield on the road would be a tough haul for East Canton, looking at their schedule they should be able to move up in the standings as the season progresses, thus getting off the 11 spot and possibly hosting a 1st round game. If CCC can finish the season 3-2, a realistic option, then they will have enough points to finish in the 12 to 16 range and make the playoffs.

Region 25

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Analysis: Malvern would have a decent shot on the road against Windham, the Bombers have fattened up on weak teams to date. The Hornets should close out the season either 5-0, or 4-1 depending on final game against East Canton, so they should accumulate enough points to host a 1st round game.
 
Level 2 Points through Week 5

Jackson 44.5
West Branch 43
McKinley 42
Salem 37.5
Green 33
Carrollton 31
Fairless 30
Sandy Valley 28
Alliance 20.5
Hoover 18
East Canton 16.5
Lake 16.5
Malvern 14.5
NW 14.5
Massillon 12
Canton South 10
CCC 5.5
Marlington 5.5
Tuslaw 3.5
GlenOak 0
Louisville 0
Minerva 0
Perry 0
STA 0
 
Scoring Leaders Stark County Area Leagues (Cumulative)

Offense
1. WB 53.4
2. Salem 40.8
3. Carrollton 40.2
4. Canton South 38.8
5. Sandy Valley 36.6
6. Fairless 36.2
7. Malvern 34.8
8. Jackson 34.2
9. Green 31.6
10. Hoover 30
11. Massillon 29.8
12. CCC 29.4
13. Lake 28.3
14. McKinley 24.8
15. Perry 24.4
16. Alliance 23.8
17. Marlington 21.4
18. NW 18.6
19. East Canton 17.8
20. Tuslaw 16.2
21. STA 15
22. GO 9.5
23. Louisville 8.2
24. Minerva 6

Defense
1. Lake 5.8
2. Fairless 11
3. Green 15
4. Malvern 16
5. Hoover 16.6
6. Sandy Valley 17.4
7. Salem 19
8 West Branch 19.2
9. NW 20.6
10. Jackson 20.8
11. East Canton 21.5
12. Canton South 22.2
13. Alliance 23
14. Carrollton 23.2
15. Louisville 24.4
16. Massillon 25.8
17. McKinley 28.4
18. GlenOak 29.3
19. Perry 30.4
20. Marlington 31.4
20. Tuslaw 31.4
22. CCC 38
23. STA 43
24. Minerva 48.8
 
Wow! - that is a lot of data starkcountylegend! - outstanding! - if they give Yappi poster MVP you are tops in my book!

Thanks for keeping old guys like me in the high school scene - I have no rebuttal to all you info presented - thanks!
 
Thanks Shadow it's all good, although many on this site get passionate and argue about Stark County Football, it's because we all love our high school football in Stark. This year is probably the most down year for the county collectively that I can recall in ages, hopefully it's just a short term lull and next year will be better overall for the county. It's tough for the county when you see historic programs like Louisville really falling to pieces, our Catholic schools are struggling, Perry is really having an off year, and the strength of the EBC resides with teams outside of Stark. We can always look at the Brightside though, the Federal League is shaping up to be a rumble coming down the stretch between McKinley, Jackson and Lake, with Hoover and Green having the opportunity to play spoilers. Some of the smaller schools are having fantastic years, especially Fairless and Sandy Valley, as well as Malvern even though they are Carroll County. While Massillon's record is not stellar, they are more than capable of reaching the final four. So, lets let the games play out and enjoy a fantastic finish to the season, hopefully a few Stark teams gel before the playoffs and surprise us with a good deep run in the playoffs.
 
This Weeks Projections: games listed in the order of the WHBC scoreboard

CCC @ Lucas
Wow, another rough match-up for the Crusaders, the schedule has been loaded this season. Lucas has been a powerhouse for a few years, even though they are D7, they play up against bigger schools. Last week, Lucas took on an undefeated D1 Lakewood and beat them 35-27, this is a team that has the potential to win the state at the D7 level. CCC's defense has been nothing to write home about this season, although there have been some improvement as the year has progressed. Unfortunately, I cannot see the Crusaders winning on the road against a good defensive team, but the bright side is the Crusaders have a decent chance at winning three of their last four, which would get them a ticket into the playoffs as a road team.

Lucas 35
CCC 24

East Canton @ Newcomerstown
Cancelled

CVCA @ Fairless
While CVCA has been a very good team the past few years, this years squad is 3-2 with wins over teams that have a combined 3-12 record. They are coming off a home blowout loss to Triway 33-0. On the other hand, Fairless has been lights out defensively and has been solid on offense. Im going to keep riding the Fearless Fairless Falcons train this week:

Fairless 24
CVCA 14

GlenOak @ Green
This use to be the battle for the basement of the Federal League, but Green has improved to a spoiler role in the Federal League. GlenOak is better than the past three years teams, but I don't think we will see the results on the scoreboard until at least next year. The big difference in this match-up is you have one team in Green that can score, and you have the Eagles that can't sniff the endzone. I can't see GlenOak keeping up with Green's offense in this game:

Green 31
GlenOak 13

McKinley @ Hoover
This is a tough game to project, McKinley is riding a three game winning streak, while Hoover has posted two straight shutouts. Hoovers defense was projected to be one of their better defenses in recent times, but their offense has been inconsistent. I know McKinley has owned this series (no I don't have the exact numbers), but I'm going to go out on a limb and take the Vikings.

Hoover 21
McKinley 20

Jackson @ Lake
Stark County Game of the Week, you talk about a tough one to handicap! On one hand you have Jackson that is well coached and plays usually good on both sides of the ball, but last week Perry put a 30 spot on the board. Then you have Lake, awesome defense, offense has looked pretty solid up to this point. If we dig down into the numbers though, Lake has beaten opponents this year that have a combined record of 3-16, so Jackson will really be the first team they have faced that is even an average team. This could go either way, but even though Lake is at home, they are hard to get a read on because of the poor schedule. It wouldn't surprise me if Lake wins, but at this point Jackson is more battle tested:

Jackson 21
Lake 14

Perry @ Louisville
This could be considered the Disappointment Bowl, both schools are having horrendous years based on their previous standards. I really can't back the Leopards even at home, the offense has no direction and remains rudderless, but they should be able to score on Perry. I'm anticipating Perry just pounding the rock all night, and limiting Louisville's opportunities. Believe it or not, the winner of this game could still backdoor their way into the playoffs.

Perry 27
Louisville 18

Malvern @ Strasburg
Malvern in a blowout, no reason to go into details, but they are playing a team that just gave up 35 points to a bad Tusky Valley team

Malvern 35
Strasburg 6

Canton South @ Marlington
Both teams have horrendous defenses, both teams need this game for the playoffs, probably Marlington more than South. This is a 50/50 game, I don't like picking against home teams, but the Dukes offense has also underachieved all year, while the Wildcats offense has been pretty consistent:

Canton South 40
Marlington 35

Minerva @ Salem
The only questions in this game are: 1) Will Salem score 60 or more points, 2) Will Minerva score at all?

Salem 61
Minerva 0

Orrville @ NW
Orrville is winless, but in their defense they have by far played the strongest schedule in the PAC to date. NW by all means should win this game at home, this might even be the game the offense finally finds their groove.

NW 31
Orrville 21

Indian Valley @ Sandy Valley
The battle of the Valleys, this should be one of the better games in the county this weekend. Sandy Valley is on a four game roll, while Indian Valley comes in undefeated sitting at 3-0, but had two games cancelled. I really wish that IV had got the game in against Dover, we would have a better idea of how strong they are this year. This is a coin flip game because of the lack of data on Indian Valley, they very well could be a super strong team that blows out Sandy Valley, but going with the home team in a coin toss:

SV 35
IV 34

Tuslaw @ Manchester
Tuslaw has been very disappointing this season, I can't see them going on the road and beating Manchester. In fact, I don't expect this game to be very close at all:

Manchester 35
Tuslaw 7

Howland @ West Branch
The closest anyone has gotten to West Branch this season is 21 points, but Howland is probably the best team that they have faced so far. At the end of the day, I don't think Howland has the offense to keep up with West Branch, I do think they will make it a game, they played well against Boardman two weeks ago:

West Branch 40
Howland 28

Alliance @ Carrollton
The Aviators surprised me last week, they are improving by leaps and bounds, but I would be again surprised if they have the juice to go on the road and knock off a very well coached Warriors team. This game has the potential to be one of the better games this week, but it also has the potential to get ugly with a young Alliance team:

Carrollton 27
Alliance 18

Rootstown @ STA
Knights are a mess right now, this is probably their last chance to avoid a winless season, as they will be large dogs in the final four games. The Rovers are by no means a juggernaut, all of their wins have come against bad teams, but they had a very strong game against undefeated Southeast on the road last week, going down 14-7. Even at home, I can't back the Knights in this one, the program right now is in poor shape, even though I'm hoping for a Knights win:

Rootstown 31
STA 14

Massillon @ Austintown Fitch
In the running with Jackson and Lake for the game of the week! This is a pivotal game for the Tigers in regards to computer points, as they need to start getting some Level two points, and they should win out the rest of the regular season after this battle. Fitch handled McKinley fairly easily, and beat an average Chaney, a terrible Mooney, and lost to a good Ursuline team. The Tigers schedule has been crafted with an eye towards the playoffs, and even though it's not showing so far in computer points, it's a extremely strong schedule. Fitch very well could win this game, but I think the Tigers are the stronger squad even on the road:

Massillon 35
Fitch 24
 
Will any teams of the teams who have already played 5 games be losing any personnel this week due to transfer rules (i.e. transfers who don’t meet any exceptions)?
 
Early in the night observations:

I guess I should of put will Salem score less than 80 against Minerva, they have 42 in the first quarter. Minerva needs to take some drastic steps with their program, they are essentially the worst program in the state. We need a Minerva and Akron North Matchup to settle this

I was worried that Indian Valley was better than I thought, again, lack of data on them, they are running Sandy Valley out of their own house 21-0

Lake and Jackson is going to be a nail biter

Tigers not looking good good early at Fitch, they really need this one for the Level 2 points.

McKinley and Hoover looking like a low scoring slugfest early in the game
 
The Perry and Louisville game is essentially a playoff elimination game, both teams believe it or not, have a shot to make the playoffs with a win tonight. On the other hand, a loss by either probably eliminates them unless they pull off some unexpected wins. Good game up to this point. By the way the Tigers have come storming back against Fitch, shaping up like another Harding game,
 
Bylaw 4-9-2 deals with recruiting, not just transfers. Story at 11:00.
OHSAA says -

Bylaw 4-9-2 defines recruiting as the use of influence by an individual, either connected or not connected to a school, to secure the enrollment of a prospective student-athlete.

That may give credence to what was said early on - the same entity owns all the locations housing the players in question.

Stock up on the popcorn.
 
Wrapping it up for 9/24

Hey at least we got some good games in Stark this weekend, the Indians are once again losing, but Bieber looked good. The Browns defense will once again struggle with a QB that is mobile, or if your a Steelers fan, your offensive line is horrendous and you have a dinosaur at QB. At least the Buckeyes will roll, probably hit 50 points over the Zips, I'm excited to see the new QBS playing.

A. I'm not a Stark County football historian, but this has to be the first time that Hoover has ever shut out McKinley, right? Hoover's much hyped defense has finally arrived, three straight stellar games. They will be a player in Region 7, but I still question if they can beat Massillon even at home.

B. Aquinas is a train wreck right now, getting blanked by Rootstown in a rout. We may have reached a point where Stark consolidates to one Catholic school.

C. Louisville is staring at a winless season, I never thought I would type those words. The offense is brutal, and the program seems to have no direction. Someone needs to come to their senses in Leopard town and plea and beg to join a league, not named the Federal. Perry was sitting right around 20th for the playoffs before this game, but this should boost them up to around 16th or 17th depending on what other teams did tonight, IMO they still need two more wins to get into the playoffs.

D. Minerva is another rudderless school, I realize they do decent in other sports, but football is the marque sport in Stark County, and they have been an absolute church on fire for almost a decade. What's the plan to correct this, just stay the course and take your beatings, or drop down in competition.

E. Jackson and Lake was everything we anticipated a bare knuckles brawl, tough to see anyone lose.

F. The Fearless Fairless Falcons continue to roll, once again, I'm not a historian, but this is shaping up as perhaps the best Fairless team in recent times,

G. CCC tosses a shutout against a team that is capable of a deep run in D7, on the road. Assuming they win two of their remaining four they will make the playoffs and be a dangerous team on the road in D6.

H. South is rolling the Dukes on the road, Marlington has failed to make any adjustments on defense all year. South is probably looking at a first round playoff game at home.

I. Nice to see GlenOak make a spirited attempt on the road against Green, the offense actually showed some spirit. It's not going to happen overnight, but GlenOak football seems to have new life. As far as Green, yes, they won the game, and they are locked into the playoffs, but beating bad teams and losing to everyone else is not a recipe for success. Green probably needs to win the next two games against Louisville and Perry to get a home playoff game. Of course this depends on the the results of the teams in Region 7. Green will probably slot 4th in the Region but Hoover is right on their tail.

J NW was finally able to get their offense rolling against Orrville, but they have three tough games in the next three weeks. They need to win one of those to make the playoffs, as a road team. If they can sweep those games then they should be looking at a 7th or 8th spot to hose a game.

K. Malvern just keeps on trucking, a smackdown again tonight. Going into this game the Hornets were looking at being a road playoff team, they have a golden opportunity to win out, and possibly finish at 5 for a home game.

L. Indian Valley is good, period. They slot into the region with Carrollton. I'm projecting them right now based on their remaining schedule to finish in the two hole. They are dangerous.

M. Alliance continues to improve if you want to mark down two teams that could be vastly improved next season it would be Alliance and GlenOak. Alliance is in the middle of a four game grinder, to expect them to go to Carrollton and win was a stretch, but they hung in the game which is a sign of an improving team.

N. Massillon beat a good Fitch team, and boy did the Tigers need this win for Level 2 points. The Tigers should win out, they will probably fall into to the three or four hole for the playoffs. Big Walnut should finish first in the region, unless they lose to Canal Winchester in their last game. With that said, even on the road, the Tigers are at a minimum a 10 point favorite over every else in Region 7, barring any major injuries. Once they get to the Final Four anything can happen, but I think it would be tough sledding for them against LaSalle, even though LaSalle lost to Moeller tonight, LaSalle has two losses, against probably the best Moeller team in a decade and against IMG (Sarasota) which is essentially a FCS team. None the less, a big win for the Tigers, and a much needed win!
 
Wrapping it up for 9/24

Hey at least we got some good games in Stark this weekend, the Indians are once again losing, but Bieber looked good. The Browns defense will once again struggle with a QB that is mobile, or if your a Steelers fan, your offensive line is horrendous and you have a dinosaur at QB. At least the Buckeyes will roll, probably hit 50 points over the Zips, I'm excited to see the new QBS playing.

A. I'm not a Stark County football historian, but this has to be the first time that Hoover has ever shut out McKinley, right? Hoover's much hyped defense has finally arrived, three straight stellar games. They will be a player in Region 7, but I still question if they can beat Massillon even at home.

B. Aquinas is a train wreck right now, getting blanked by Rootstown in a rout. We may have reached a point where Stark consolidates to one Catholic school.

C. Louisville is staring at a winless season, I never thought I would type those words. The offense is brutal, and the program seems to have no direction. Someone needs to come to their senses in Leopard town and plea and beg to join a league, not named the Federal. Perry was sitting right around 20th for the playoffs before this game, but this should boost them up to around 16th or 17th depending on what other teams did tonight, IMO they still need two more wins to get into the playoffs.

D. Minerva is another rudderless school, I realize they do decent in other sports, but football is the marque sport in Stark County, and they have been an absolute church on fire for almost a decade. What's the plan to correct this, just stay the course and take your beatings, or drop down in competition.

E. Jackson and Lake was everything we anticipated a bare knuckles brawl, tough to see anyone lose.

F. The Fearless Fairless Falcons continue to roll, once again, I'm not a historian, but this is shaping up as perhaps the best Fairless team in recent times,

G. CCC tosses a shutout against a team that is capable of a deep run in D7, on the road. Assuming they win two of their remaining four they will make the playoffs and be a dangerous team on the road in D6.

H. South is rolling the Dukes on the road, Marlington has failed to make any adjustments on defense all year. South is probably looking at a first round playoff game at home.

I. Nice to see GlenOak make a spirited attempt on the road against Green, the offense actually showed some spirit. It's not going to happen overnight, but GlenOak football seems to have new life. As far as Green, yes, they won the game, and they are locked into the playoffs, but beating bad teams and losing to everyone else is not a recipe for success. Green probably needs to win the next two games against Louisville and Perry to get a home playoff game. Of course this depends on the the results of the teams in Region 7. Green will probably slot 4th in the Region but Hoover is right on their tail.

J NW was finally able to get their offense rolling against Orrville, but they have three tough games in the next three weeks. They need to win one of those to make the playoffs, as a road team. If they can sweep those games then they should be looking at a 7th or 8th spot to hose a game.

K. Malvern just keeps on trucking, a smackdown again tonight. Going into this game the Hornets were looking at being a road playoff team, they have a golden opportunity to win out, and possibly finish at 5 for a home game.

L. Indian Valley is good, period. They slot into the region with Carrollton. I'm projecting them right now based on their remaining schedule to finish in the two hole. They are dangerous.

M. Alliance continues to improve if you want to mark down two teams that could be vastly improved next season it would be Alliance and GlenOak. Alliance is in the middle of a four game grinder, to expect them to go to Carrollton and win was a stretch, but they hung in the game which is a sign of an improving team.

N. Massillon beat a good Fitch team, and boy did the Tigers need this win for Level 2 points. The Tigers should win out, they will probably fall into to the three or four hole for the playoffs. Big Walnut should finish first in the region, unless they lose to Canal Winchester in their last game. With that said, even on the road, the Tigers are at a minimum a 10 point favorite over every else in Region 7, barring any major injuries. Once they get to the Final Four anything can happen, but I think it would be tough sledding for them against LaSalle, even though LaSalle lost to Moeller tonight, LaSalle has two losses, against probably the best Moeller team in a decade and against IMG (Sarasota) which is essentially a FCS team. None the less, a big win for the Tigers, and a much needed win!
Hoover shutout McKinley in 2003 19-0.
 
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