I like to go on league pages and see what grade a team's all-conference players were in. If they were mostly underclassmen, seniors, or a mix.
That is certainly not definitive, but a part of the picture.
I'll go with 3 tiers:
favorites:
Milton-Union - returns 8 kids who were 1st team all-league (4 were all state), and 4 more 2nd team. 8 starters back on D, 9 on O.
Valley View - loses some key players (Ferguson and Cotterman!) but QB and RB both back and very good
Brookville - Beat Valley View by 14 last year, MU beat VV by 4.
Preble Shawnee -Really loses 1 key RB from last years team. Easier schedule than the other 3 could hurt, but will be very good.
threats:
Mariemont - beat Blan by 26 in the playoffs last year.
Greeneview - good returners, 10 point loss to Mechanicsburg in 2021 playoffs shows promise. coming up from d6
Purcell Marian - lost some pieces, but Goodloe and a few other standouts return
Zane Trace - I am incredibly unfamiliar with them. Maybe they're great. I'll put them here based on last years results
dark horses:
Waynesville - yet to perform at the level of the last 2 coaching staffs. Maybe this year it all clicks
Northeastern - beat up on some bad teams in '21. I think they lost a good class.
Carlisle - beat teams their size or smaller in '21, lost to bigger teams. Was that a good class or is the triple now a threat there?
Blanchester -Will be better, but have a way to go to catch the front of their league and look like a real threat
I am sure this means nothing (I predicted Covington would go 9-1 last year..they went 1-9) but it is fun to try!