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  #1  
Old 10-04-12, 07:09 AM
BlueBomber94 BlueBomber94 is offline
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Who will make the playoffs? D1/R4

With so many teams doing well in Cincinnati, who will make the playoffs in 2012 for R4? So far, these are the current regional rankings:

1. 6-0 Colerain
2. 5-1 Archbishop Moeller
3. 6-0 Springboro
4. 5-1 Huber Heights Wayne
5. 6-0 Lakota West
6. 5-1 Lakota East
7. 5-1 Sycamore
8. 4-2 St Xavier

Who still has a shot and who will drop out?

Last edited by BlueBomber94 : 10-04-12 at 10:24 AM.
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  #2  
Old 10-04-12, 07:22 AM
ohiopup ohiopup is offline
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http://www.fantastic50.net/Ohio_Berths.php

Region 4 Playoff Berth Probabilities (projected cutoff 23.20)
Colerain (Cincinnati) 99% (8W-100% 9W-100% 10W-100% )
Wayne (Huber Heights) 99% (6W-41% 7W-93% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
Springboro 97% (7W-3% 8W-56% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Archbishop Moeller (Cincinnati) 91% (5W-26% 6W-86% 7W-99% 8W-100% 9W-100% )
Lakota West (West Chester) 88% (7W-17% 8W-78% 9W-99% 10W-100% )
Sycamore (Cincinnati) 72% (6W-2% 7W-28% 8W-86% 9W-100% )
Lakota East (Liberty Township) 67% (6W-8% 7W-61% 8W-99% 9W-100% )
St Xavier (Cincinnati) 51% (5W-1% 6W-48% 7W-99% 8W-100% )
- - - -
Withrow (Cincinnati) 32% (7W-2% 8W-85% )
Elder (Cincinnati) 31% (5W-12% 6W-93% 7W-100% )
Centerville 20% (6W-1% 7W-28% 8W-99% )
Lebanon 19% (7W-1% 8W-68% )
Loveland 16% (6W-1% 7W-26% 8W-97% )
Xenia 7% (7W-1% 8W-71% )
Miamisburg 3% (6W-1% 7W-59% 8W-100% )
La Salle (Cincinnati) 2% (6W-1% 7W-14% 8W-80% )
Oak Hills (Cincinnati) 2% (5W-1% 6W-1% 7W-57% )

:>---
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  #3  
Old 10-04-12, 11:57 AM
DonMagicRon DonMagicRon is offline
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I think that the top 8 that's in place at this moment will be the top 8 at the end of the season. It appears to me that Lakota West, East and Sycamore all has some wiggle room and could lose another game or two and still be in good shape. St. X would be the team I would pick most likely to drop out. Not because they are not a deserving team but those games at St. Eds and St. I's look to be really tough, but even if they split those games and finish with 7 wins they are in good shape.

As far as who I think can make a move Elder and Centerville would be the obvious teams to look at. The remainder of Elder schedule is really tough and Moeller is a must win. For Centerville, Wayne is a must win. I think Centerville odds are a little better. Watch out for a Withrow push with a 5 win Shroeder and 6 win Marist, Il. still on their schedule.

So most likely to drop out: St. X
Most likely to push in: Elder, Centerville
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  #4  
Old 10-04-12, 12:16 PM
JBaller JBaller is offline
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Colerain, Wayne, Springboro, and Moeller are pretty much locks (ok, Moeller isn't really, but if they managed to miss the playoffs, we could name Rodenberg the worst high school football coach of all time without debate). That's 4 of the 8.

Depending on the results of their games, particularly head-to-head, 2 out of 3 of Lakota West, Lakota East, and Sycamore are locks, it's just unclear which 2 at the moment. That gets to 6 of the 8 teams.

For the last two spots, X and Elder control their own destiny if they win enough of their remaining games, none of which are easy wins (they both must go 3-1 to become locks).

If one of X or Elder (or both) should go 2-2, then Withrow would control their own destiny and would be in if they manage to beat Marist out of Chicago.

If one of X or Elder (or both) should go 2-2, and Withrow loses another game, then there would be a jumbled mess for the last playoff spot (or two) with L2 games impacting the order of several teams.
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  #5  
Old 10-04-12, 12:26 PM
Termite2 Termite2 is offline
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Marist[6-0] plays in the East surburban Chicago Catholic league, currently 4th or 5th in the state in the big school Ill div. While they are no Mt Carmel, they are pretty good- Marist by 21 over Withrow.

Comcast cable has their last game here
www.xfinity.com/highschoolsports

Marist roster:
http://www.athletics2000.com/marist/...der=FOOTBALL_B

Their QB, Ian Woodworth, Sr., 6-0, 175, threw for 2800+ and 30 td's last year.
They return their entire OL, and big time recruit at wide receiver , 6'5" Nic Weishar
Their defense is not as good as their offense, is led by Shannon Smith, Sr., 6-2, 268, DL

With an official IHSA base[they have a multiplier to get to their IHSA figure of 2937] enrollment of 1780 coed, they are comfortably in Div1 by Ohio standards

Last edited by Termite2 : 10-04-12 at 12:53 PM.
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  #6  
Old 10-04-12, 12:57 PM
BlueBomber94 BlueBomber94 is offline
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St. X can make it in. A lot of L2 pts will help them out. Lou St. X and Moeller will provide them some needed pts. Hopefully, X can take out St. Eds and maybe even St. I's (sounds unlikely but look at the Moeller game). I think St. X will be just fine and will continue to climb the ladder.
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  #7  
Old 10-04-12, 01:03 PM
CaRdsForLife CaRdsForLife is offline
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I say X takes 1 of the 2 games against Eds and Iggy. 7-3 as I see it.
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  #8  
Old 10-04-12, 01:06 PM
BlueBomber94 BlueBomber94 is offline
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Originally Posted by CaRdsForLife View Post
I say X takes 1 of the 2 games against Eds and Iggy. 7-3 as I see it.
St. X has shocked a lot of people and I'd like to mention...I told y'all so! I said they would surprise everybody despite Dolle, Hundley, Gerbus, Wood and Albright graduating. Seems I was right. Next year, X will be stacked on offense and defense in need of just a few key spots to be filled.
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  #9  
Old 10-04-12, 01:21 PM
adselder09 adselder09 is online now
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Elder is not in a must-win tomorrow vs Moeller. Would be nice and will keep them in control of their own destiny, but a 6-4 Elder team can get in. If you look at the projections, a 6-win Elder has. 93% chance at getting in.
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  #10  
Old 10-04-12, 01:36 PM
CaRdsForLife CaRdsForLife is offline
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Originally Posted by BlueBomber94 View Post
St. X has shocked a lot of people and I'd like to mention...I told y'all so! I said they would surprise everybody despite Dolle, Hundley, Gerbus, Wood and Albright graduating. Seems I was right. Next year, X will be stacked on offense and defense in need of just a few key spots to be filled.
You didn't tell me! but I never count X out. Even on a down year they can hang with the best. (not saying this a down year) just saying in general.
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  #11  
Old 10-04-12, 01:53 PM
DonMagicRon DonMagicRon is offline
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Originally Posted by adselder09 View Post
Elder is not in a must-win tomorrow vs Moeller. Would be nice and will keep them in control of their own destiny, but a 6-4 Elder team can get in. If you look at the projections, a 6-win Elder has. 93% chance at getting in.
6 wins with Elder's remaining schedule is far from a sure bet. It would be foolish to think that.
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  #12  
Old 10-04-12, 02:09 PM
Rabbit Rabbit is offline
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Originally Posted by JBaller View Post
Colerain, Wayne, Springboro, and Moeller are pretty much locks (ok, Moeller isn't really, but if they managed to miss the playoffs, we could name Rodenberg the worst high school football coach of all time without debate). That's 4 of the 8.

Depending on the results of their games, particularly head-to-head, 2 out of 3 of Lakota West, Lakota East, and Sycamore are locks, it's just unclear which 2 at the moment. That gets to 6 of the 8 teams.

For the last two spots, X and Elder control their own destiny if they win enough of their remaining games, none of which are easy wins (they both must go 3-1 to become locks).

If one of X or Elder (or both) should go 2-2, then Withrow would control their own destiny and would be in if they manage to beat Marist out of Chicago.

If one of X or Elder (or both) should go 2-2, and Withrow loses another game, then there would be a jumbled mess for the last playoff spot (or two) with L2 games impacting the order of several teams.
I'm not a huge Rodenberg fan, however Moeller is 5-1 #2 i the region and have played a tough schedule, and they are very good team. Tell me a team in American that finishes with a tougher 4 games than Moeller. They could lose all 4. But the worst coach in HS history... Come on Mr. Sycamore
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  #13  
Old 10-04-12, 02:18 PM
CaRdsForLife CaRdsForLife is offline
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Originally Posted by Termite2 View Post
Marist[6-0] plays in the East surburban Chicago Catholic league, currently 4th or 5th in the state in the big school Ill div. While they are no Mt Carmel, they are pretty good- Marist by 21 over Withrow.

Comcast cable has their last game here
www.xfinity.com/highschoolsports

Marist roster:
http://www.athletics2000.com/marist/...der=FOOTBALL_B

Their QB, Ian Woodworth, Sr., 6-0, 175, threw for 2800+ and 30 td's last year.
They return their entire OL, and big time recruit at wide receiver , 6'5" Nic Weishar
Their defense is not as good as their offense, is led by Shannon Smith, Sr., 6-2, 268, DL

With an official IHSA base[they have a multiplier to get to their IHSA figure of 2937] enrollment of 1780 coed, they are comfortably in Div1 by Ohio standards

Looking back at there records from years past there best record was 2009 11-3 with a state title loss. Other then that they havent been that great. 7-3 last year, no playoffs.
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  #14  
Old 10-04-12, 03:10 PM
JBaller JBaller is offline
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Originally Posted by Rabbit View Post
I'm not a huge Rodenberg fan, however Moeller is 5-1 #2 i the region and have played a tough schedule, and they are very good team. Tell me a team in American that finishes with a tougher 4 games than Moeller. They could lose all 4. But the worst coach in HS history... Come on Mr. Sycamore
That's why I said that Moeller is technically not really a lock, because they do play 4 tough games down the stretch. However, if they did manage to lose all four, which is what it would take for them to miss the playoffs, it would be one of the worst meltdowns ever. They really should easily beat Cathedral and Elder, but, then again, they shouldn't have gotten blown out by X and they should have blown out the two Michigan teams. Although they are 5-1, this Moeller team is not playing nearly as well as their talent, which I consider to be the best in Region 4.
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  #15  
Old 10-04-12, 03:21 PM
Termite2 Termite2 is offline
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Originally Posted by CaRdsForLife View Post
Looking back at there records from years past there best record was 2009 11-3 with a state title loss. Other then that they havent been that great. 7-3 last year, no playoffs.
They lost in the first rd of the playoffs last year to Homewood Flossmoor ; they were the 5th seed out of statewide 16 teams in the 8A playoffs-HF was 12th seed.
Their QB/WR combo is supposed to be the best in the state.
Their current head coach is 39-13 and made the playoffs each year; before that, they went 17-21 in the 4 seasons before. In 2009, they lost in the state finals.
2008 lost in 2nd rd to state champ
2009 lost in final
2010 lost in 2nd rd
2011 lost in first rd

Last edited by Termite2 : 10-04-12 at 03:32 PM.
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  #16  
Old 10-04-12, 03:45 PM
adselder09 adselder09 is online now
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Originally Posted by DonMagicRon View Post
6 wins with Elder's remaining schedule is far from a sure bet. It would be foolish to think that.
With the reamaining schedule? Elder has 1 loss Moeller, 1 loss Winton Woods, undefeated Highlands and 2 loss LaSalle. Plenty of L2s to garner. The front end of the schedule is the worry, specifically Upper Arlington. They are currently 3-3, probably looking at 5-5 finish. Centerville also has Wayne which will put them at 3 losses, probably looking at 7-3 for them.

If you want to go by that logic, nothing is a "sure bet" outside of Colerain and probably Springboro at this point. Moeller is also looking good at 5-1.
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  #17  
Old 10-04-12, 03:56 PM
DonMagicRon DonMagicRon is offline
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Originally Posted by adselder09 View Post
With the reamaining schedule? Elder has 1 loss Moeller, 1 loss Winton Woods, undefeated Highlands and 2 loss LaSalle. Plenty of L2s to garner. The front end of the schedule is the worry, specifically Upper Arlington. They are currently 3-3, probably looking at 5-5 finish. Centerville also has Wayne which will put them at 3 losses, probably looking at 7-3 for them.

If you want to go by that logic, nothing is a "sure bet" outside of Colerain and probably Springboro at this point. Moeller is also looking good at 5-1.
Sure the points are there, my point is that you don't earn those points unless you win.
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  #18  
Old 10-04-12, 04:13 PM
JBaller JBaller is offline
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Originally Posted by DonMagicRon View Post
Sure the points are there, my point is that you don't earn those points unless you win.
Exactly. 6-4 will get them in. But that means they need to go 3-1 against Moeller, Winton Woods, Highlands, and Lasalle. If they go 2-2, they will need a lot of help to get in.
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  #19  
Old 10-04-12, 04:36 PM
adselder09 adselder09 is online now
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Originally Posted by DonMagicRon View Post
Sure the points are there, my point is that you don't earn those points unless you win.
So you're saying they go 2-2 in the final 4 which would put them at 5-5. Yes then that makes them on bubble and not looking good. Would need lots of help. I'm saying at 6-4 they are most likely in, not saying that it's a sure bet to finish at 6-4.
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  #20  
Old 10-04-12, 04:40 PM
DonMagicRon DonMagicRon is offline
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Originally Posted by adselder09 View Post
So you're saying they go 2-2 in the final 4 which would put them at 5-5. Yes then that makes them on bubble and not looking good. Would need lots of help. I'm saying at 6-4 they are most likely in, not saying that it's a sure bet to finish at 6-4.
I agree. The effects of this Moeller game go beyond the scoreboard for Elder. It's a big, big game.
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  #21  
Old 10-04-12, 05:09 PM
Blue Rhino Blue Rhino is offline
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Originally Posted by CaRdsForLife View Post
I say X takes 1 of the 2 games against Eds and Iggy. 7-3 as I see it.
+1
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  #22  
Old 10-04-12, 05:10 PM
Blue Rhino Blue Rhino is offline
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Originally Posted by DonMagicRon View Post
I agree. The effects of this Moeller game go beyond the scoreboard for Elder. It's a big, big game.
Any key injuries for this game? or are both teams relatively healthy?
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  #23  
Old 10-04-12, 10:52 PM
moejoe83 moejoe83 is offline
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Originally Posted by BlueBomber94 View Post
St. X has shocked a lot of people and I'd like to mention...I told y'all so! I said they would surprise everybody despite Dolle, Hundley, Gerbus, Wood and Albright graduating. Seems I was right. Next year, X will be stacked on offense and defense in need of just a few key spots to be filled.
Oct. 4...earliest "wait until next year" post ever. Just sayin'.
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