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  #1  
Old 09-30-17, 01:45 PM
claynation claynation is offline
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Someone needs to wheel the MMOC course

The Kreft/Horter times are one thing, but I'm more suspicious of the fact that literally everyone (boys and girls) on a certain team set PRs -- many by more than one minute. I'd be interested if this was the case with more teams and whether these times will even be close to replicated at National Trail, which is about as fast as a 5000m XC course can be.
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  #2  
Old 09-30-17, 02:23 PM
Rohbino Rohbino is offline
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I'm always reluctant to attribute fast times to a short course but I need agree. The course had to have been short. It is as flat as a pancake and weather conditions today were as ideal as ideal can be but come on. There is no way that course was a true 5,000.

Kreft at 14:29
Horter at 14:36
20 guys under 16
91 guys under 17
5 girls under 18
23 girls under 19
76 girls under 20
Draw your own conclusions

Too bad Kreft isn't running D1 at State, though.
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  #3  
Old 09-30-17, 02:53 PM
CoachI CoachI is offline
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Can't wait to see next week's State Poll.
How many voters only use virtual meets to determine their rankings? Totally worthless metric without a course adjustment statistic.
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  #4  
Old 09-30-17, 03:47 PM
EuclidandViren EuclidandViren is offline
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I'll give it 25-35 seconds faster for most people.
25 for top boys and 35 for top girls.
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  #5  
Old 09-30-17, 03:54 PM
runningrocks runningrocks is offline
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Yeah but you all are missing the point here. Whether the course is short or not (it's not) , Kreft still beat Horter by a solid 6 seconds. That's a decent amount. Ladies and gentleman horter is very beatable and it's only a matter of time until scrape, jha, and the rest of ohios d1 studs get to him at the state meet.
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  #6  
Old 09-30-17, 04:53 PM
LitOnFriday LitOnFriday is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by runningrocks View Post
Yeah but you all are missing the point here. Whether the course is short or not (it's not) , Kreft still beat Horter by a solid 6 seconds. That's a decent amount. Ladies and gentleman horter is very beatable and it's only a matter of time until scrape, jha, and the rest of ohios d1 studs get to him at the state meet.
My though as well. It's very impressive that Kreft beat Horter. At least I viewed Horter as untouchable until NXN/FL. A race between Kreft, Horter, and Chad Johnson would be such an exciting race.

But looking through the results, it seems as if literally 90% of the top 100 PR'ed today. Granted near perfect weather conditions and a flat course, but DANG, someone needs to go out and wheel it.
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  #7  
Old 09-30-17, 05:34 PM
PickNorthFan PickNorthFan is offline
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Conditions were perfect and the course is fast. Im guessing the course is worth 20 seconds over 5k. The rest is weather related.
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  #8  
Old 09-30-17, 05:53 PM
mathking mathking is offline
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Once again, I used a laser rangefinder to measure straight point to straight point at the turns. 4977 m. Which is pretty close to the last time I did this (a couple of years ago) and the last time I will do it. We did it ONLY to figure out if the old course rating we use for this course is still valid. It seems like it is. I can only recall one time when the course was this fast in the past (2012 OCC meet) in terms of my calculated course adjustment. I did a quick check around at other meets, and shockingly, it was a day when people ran fast times for lots of courses. So it is not surprising that one of the fastest courses in the state saw really fast times. If you have great weather, relatively late in a season, on a really fast course then you expect a lot of best times.

One side note, my calculation of the PR percentage for the race is not done, but for the love of god don't trust Milesplit. It just misses too many times. Remember the big story on the "all time teams" back in the summer? They missed the best time for our school's fastest runner, even though that time was a state champion time (and the third fastest in SD history). Roughly 40% of my girls don't have a correct PR on Milesplit.
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  #9  
Old 09-30-17, 05:57 PM
gatornation gatornation is offline
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I know nothing about MMOC, but agree with mathking about looking at other meets on same weekend. Look at the times at Gilmour, Madison, and Woodridge(just kidding). There were some great times dropped down out there in the last 2 days.
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  #10  
Old 09-30-17, 06:22 PM
CC Track Fan CC Track Fan is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LitOnFriday View Post
A race between Kreft, Horter, and Chad Johnson would be such an exciting race.
If both schools go like last year and both boys run next week will be able to see Kreft and Johnson race each other on another fast course at Marion. The Johnston's from Lexington will not be far behind. Johnson beat Kreft 15:09.3 to 15:09.4 last year.
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  #11  
Old 09-30-17, 07:35 PM
LitOnFriday LitOnFriday is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CC Track Fan View Post
If both schools go like last year and both boys run next week will be able to see Kreft and Johnson race each other on another fast course at Marion. The Johnston's from Lexington will not be far behind. Johnson beat Kreft 15:09.3 to 15:09.4 last year.
Just watched his post race interview. He said he'll be going to Marion next week and Johnson will be there as well. Should make for another interesting race.
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  #12  
Old 09-30-17, 07:44 PM
Running Man 101 Running Man 101 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by runningrocks View Post
Yeah but you all are missing the point here. Whether the course is short or not (it's not) , Kreft still beat Horter by a solid 6 seconds. That's a decent amount. Ladies and gentleman horter is very beatable and it's only a matter of time until scrape, jha, and the rest of ohios d1 studs get to him at the state meet.
The kid from Middletown will have a a say in who wins. We were at Kettering today and times were fast, but not crazy. Many of the top tier boys and girls ran around their normal times to slightly faster. The ground is hard and firm, combined with great temperatures toward the end of the season, you get great times. MMOC always has fast times. 14:29 is fast on a track FWIW.

Some of these meets are getting to big for the course sizes. Think there were 827 finishers in the open race at Kettering.
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  #13  
Old 09-30-17, 08:56 PM
LoveCrossCountry LoveCrossCountry is offline
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I saw that race today, and Horter and Kreft were just flying. The weather was perfect and it is definitely a fast course. 4977 meters? Ok. I think mainly it was the weather, the flat course with long straights and manicured grass and the competition.

For what it's worth, the boys team that I follow didn't have everyone set PRs.

Was a great race.
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  #14  
Old 09-30-17, 09:19 PM
FanOfRunning69 FanOfRunning69 is offline
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The course is undoubtedly short. Obviously Kreft and Horter had great races, but the course is short.
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  #15  
Old 09-30-17, 10:55 PM
mathking mathking is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LoveCrossCountry View Post
I saw that race today, and Horter and Kreft were just flying. The weather was perfect and it is definitely a fast course. 4977 meters? Ok. I think mainly it was the weather, the flat course with long straights and manicured grass and the competition.

For what it's worth, the boys team that I follow didn't have everyone set PRs.

Was a great race.
The teams I coach didn't have everyone at PRs, though there were a bunch of them. For me knowing it was a little bit short (though measuring with the laser means it is unlikely anyone actually ran a path that short) is irrelevant. It's a fast course anyone. The conditions today made it faster yet. With all due respect to Andrew Johnston (who I believe had the course record from 2012) I do actually think Kreft and Horter are faster runners. Then again, they ran side by side for much of the race, so they were pushing each other. In any event, it's cross country. Different courses and different conditions yield different times. If we had been running under last weekend's temperatures I bet we'd have seen 15-30 seconds slower times today for the best boys and girls. If the race had been run at Bradley the times would have been slower. Neither of those possibilities would have meant the athletes were actually any better or worse. If see a kid has run a 16:12 at Tiffin and another ran a 16:27 at CVNP, I know the kid at CVNP ran a lot faster race. I don't need to measure either course to know that.
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  #16  
Old 09-30-17, 11:25 PM
LoveCrossCountry LoveCrossCountry is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mathking View Post
The teams I coach didn't have everyone at PRs, though there were a bunch of them. For me knowing it was a little bit short (though measuring with the laser means it is unlikely anyone actually ran a path that short) is irrelevant. It's a fast course anyone. The conditions today made it faster yet. With all due respect to Andrew Johnston (who I believe had the course record from 2012) I do actually think Kreft and Horter are faster runners. Then again, they ran side by side for much of the race, so they were pushing each other. In any event, it's cross country. Different courses and different conditions yield different times. If we had been running under last weekend's temperatures I bet we'd have seen 15-30 seconds slower times today for the best boys and girls. If the race had been run at Bradley the times would have been slower. Neither of those possibilities would have meant the athletes were actually any better or worse. If see a kid has run a 16:12 at Tiffin and another ran a 16:27 at CVNP, I know the kid at CVNP ran a lot faster race. I don't need to measure either course to know that.
Agreed. Andrew Johnston is doing quite well running for the Air Force, but, you are right that Kreft and Horter are better high school runners.
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  #17  
Old 10-01-17, 06:05 AM
cvctrackfan cvctrackfan is offline
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At Gilmour, we had to make a few course adjustments due to construction on campus. Having a longer start helped with times along with the elimination of several 90 degree turns. The girls blue race was the ,ost competitive team race of the day (Chagrin Falls vs Gilmour). It yielded the most top times. The other races not so much. It looks like our course had times similar to The Tiffin race but achieved several weeks later. Another coach also wheeled the course and he found the 1600 meter mark to be 4 meters long. But, overall pretty close. (20 meters difference is what I think he said).
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  #18  
Old 10-01-17, 02:06 PM
Rohbino Rohbino is offline
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I've heard that the course is close to 90 meters short. This was with a wheel. Regardless of if it is short or not, the results wouldn't have changed. What would have changed is having to read the incessant "#1 or #2 time in the US" from milesplit. I, for one, get tired of all of the hype about times that milesplit constantly spews.

There is too much emphasis on times in XC. Comparing times from one course to another is meaningless. For that matter, comparing times from different days when weather conditions might be different is meaningless.
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  #19  
Old 10-01-17, 08:42 PM
yj_runfan yj_runfan is offline
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Why do people think a course has to be 5000m?
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  #20  
Old 10-01-17, 09:15 PM
LitOnFriday LitOnFriday is offline
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Originally Posted by yj_runfan View Post
Why do people think a course has to be 5000m?
5k = 5,000m right? If courses are short then they could skew with times and PR's and such... Yea times should mean nothing at all but in our digital age it seems like time has become more of an achievement compared to points/placement.
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  #21  
Old 10-02-17, 06:45 AM
EuclidandViren EuclidandViren is offline
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Originally Posted by yj_runfan View Post
Why do people think a course has to be 5000m?
100% correct. Many other states this is widely accepted that kids run different distances. THE old GCL course at Elder is/was widely accepted as being 140 meters short.

(1) The only criteria that the kids and the public needs is that the race management needs to publicize the end result. Just tell us the course distance.

(2) About 8 years ago we had a major flood on our course due to the rain. We had to reroute the junior high races and it made the race 3000 meters instead of 3217 meters. We publicized the race as such and told the coaches and kids during and after the race.
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  #22  
Old 10-02-17, 07:43 AM
ENA2 ENA2 is offline
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Many courses are not 5000 meters... I believe the rule states that it should be a "maximum" of 5000M so courses do not need to be. But meet management should make it known what distance the course is. We race a 3000 course that is as advertised. We have also raced a 3.0 mile course that we know going in that it is short. I have also measured 5K courses that are short. Here is what I got on several courses and when.
Claymont - 3.01 (they have lengthened it for the IVC championship) - 2015
Newcomerstown - 4800 meters - 2005? (billed as a 5k so I don't go anymore)
Galion - 3.06 in 2007

Also, how you measure can vary... I try to go how the lead runner would run.
Also, GPS and a Wheel can be a little different
Also, the "trail" may change from year-to-year if mowed different or painted different (wide turns or cutting tangents) or for courses around cornfields for example.

The only real reason why I want to know is for our record board for 5K because our 19:30 for a <3.0 course is not as good as the 20:43 effort by the smae girl on the old Boardman course... but I keep track of the top 10 times for each course that we run too.
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  #23  
Old 10-02-17, 09:25 AM
madman madman is offline
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This topic comes up on a regular basis. It's like a dead horse that just needs a good kicking every now and then.

There is NO official method of measuring cross country courses at any level.

GPS measurements are typically 2-5% off with newer models often worse than older models. http://fellrnr.com/wiki/GPS_Accuracy

Measuring wheels are not meant to measure anything with precision. Even on a calibrated 500m straight used for the Sydney Olympics measuring wheels where notoriously under by ~1% and as much as 7%. On a rough grass surface with many turns, a measuring wheel is going to be even less accurate. The larger the wheel the less problems you will have with bumps, etc.

It's almost impossible to keep the wheel in contact with the ground all the time on a bumpy surface. Add to that, the difficulty in walking a perfectly straight line following point-to-point protocols and it wouldn't be unexpected to have error of more than 2% below the actual distance.

Even if you know the distance, the elasticity of the surface, wind, hills, turns, etc. all have significant impacts on time. I have the same concerns mentioned earlier - XC isn't about distance or times on different courses. Just because we CAN compare the times doesn't mean there's a valid way to do it. Milesplit makes it easy to do it, so it becomes a common behavior, but that doesn't makes the comparisons valid.

Lasers, GPS watches, or the most expensive measuring wheels will not solve this issue.

Why do you think Woodridge sneaks up on everyone each year? The run hilly courses with lots of turns for most of the season (McDonald, Brecksville, CVNP). Then it looks like miracles have occurred when they run fast on flat firm courses at the end of the year.

The move to make more courses Track on Grass only exacerbates this issue as it does make courses more similar, but the race conditions will never be the same and there is NO way of measuring courses with the precision we want to use in our comparisons.
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  #24  
Old 10-02-17, 09:38 AM
yj_runfan yj_runfan is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LitOnFriday View Post
5k = 5,000m right? If courses are short then they could skew with times and PR's and such... Yea times should mean nothing at all but in our digital age it seems like time has become more of an achievement compared to points/placement.
Nothing says a course has to be a 5K. Just that it can't be longer than 5K.
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Old 10-02-17, 09:49 AM
FanOfRunning69 FanOfRunning69 is offline
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Correct, but then MMOC should make expressly clear how long the course is. I know a coach in the Columbus area measured it twice after the meet on Saturday and she told me it was between 90-110m short.

MMOC advertises their course as a 5k, which is wrong.
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  #26  
Old 10-02-17, 01:39 PM
mathking mathking is offline
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I saw two different coaches (I am assuming they were coaches) measuring the MMOC course when I went back that were both measuring (partly) the wrong course. At least I assume so as they went over the middle school only part of the course. One of them was jogging with his wheel, which is also a big problem. That can under measure by a huge amount.

But again, none of this really matters. I measured it ONLY to see if it was close to the measurements I have made in the past so that I could use the same course adjustment for it. One interesting thing I see a lot when this subject comes up is how many coaches realize that if you follow the rules it is fine for a course to be short (I agree that they should be close to advertised distance) but it is against the rules to be any longer.

There are a couple of tough, hilly courses I have coached at that are short. But they toughness of the course more than makes up for the fact that it's short so the course is "slow" compared to the average course. We very rarely worry about teams sneaking up on us or overly intimidating us because we don't just use times. If we have one kid with a 16:25 at MMOC and another with a 16:45 at CVNP then we know the second kid ran a lot faster race.
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Old 10-02-17, 01:40 PM
madman madman is offline
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Who knows if the coach from Columbus' wheel/technique is accurate? It almost certainly isn't, nor is anyone elses. I have no doubt that someone's wheel will measure it to be near 5000m.
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  #28  
Old 10-02-17, 01:49 PM
Rohbino Rohbino is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Running Man 101 View Post
The kid from Middletown will have a a say in who wins. We were at Kettering today and times were fast, but not crazy.
"The kid from Middletown" that you're referring to is Conant Smith. You're exactly right in stating that he will have a say in who wins. He will be right in the mix for the D1 state championship along with Horter, Scrape, & Jha (apologies in advance to others not mentioned). Conant ran a 15:06 on the Indian Riffle Park course this past Saturday. On the same course last year, when Horter was also a junior as Conant is now, he was somewhere around 15:40. The Indian Riffle Park course is more of a "true XC course" compared to the track on grass course at MMOC. To me the largely solo effort of Smith is more impressive than the Kreft and Horter race at MMOC. I think that Conant Smith is ahead of where Horter was in his junior year. I would have loved to have seen what he would have done if he were in the MMOC along with Horter and Kreft. A win by Smith wouldn't have surprised me.

Quote:
Originally Posted by yj_runfan View Post
Why do people think a course has to be 5000m?
I think that most here, and as others have pointed out, are not contending that a course has to be 5,000m. As a matter of fact, in the cross-country regulations from OSHAA, this is stated:

1.2) DISTANCE
a. Grades 9-12 — 5,000 meters (OHSAA Tournaments).
b. Grades 7 & 8 — 3200 meters maximum.


For grades 9-12 I did not see anything that stated that a race could not be LONGER than 5,000 meters. The only specification is that for the tournaments (Districts, Regionals, and State) the distance must be 5,000 meters. I know of a few early season events that are 3,000 meters.

The big issue here is that the MMOC course is said to be 5,000 meters and there seems to be enough reasonable doubt to not believe that it is. By stating that a course is actually 5,000 meters, multiple aspects are affected. The average mile time that Timing First list on the results wouldn't be true. Some will believe that they PR'd when they wouldn't have with an accurate distance, some will claim school records that really aren't school records, coaches may naively use the times from the meet to factor in the decisions about post-season teams, etc.

Regardless of the distance of the course, it shouldn't take away from the great race. All that matters is who won the race, be it 4,900 meters, 4,977, or 5,000 meters. The results for the first 2 runners, Kreft and Horter, wouldn't have changed. There may have been some shuffling of spots in the standings if the distance was accurate but that is irrelevant because the distance run was the distance raced.

A lot of the blame for the emphasis on times comes from Milesplit. The constant preaching of how fast times are is tiresome to say the least. Milesplit will come up with rankings based on times from different courses that are of different lengths. It's just a lot of garbage coming from Milesplit.

I also think that the emphasis on times has led to an increase of the events being held at venues that are not challenging. I would love to see more venues similar to CVNP. Even venues that at least have some hills would be good to see - courses similar to the College of Wooster course, Dover, Goodyear, Rapid Run, Mason, Make the sport challenging. There is a sport that features courses similar to the MMOC course. The name of that sport is track. I would like to see some of the "studs" step out of their comfort zone and take on a course like CVNP. To Andrew Jordan's credit, I believe that he raced there a few times with a best in the high 16:50s. The year previous to that he was somewhere around 17:30. Michael Bradjic, another "stud" from the past also ran at CVNP and has the course record - a blazing 16:23. Olympian Bridget Franek of Crestwood (now a XC assistant at Akron, BTW) has the record for girls - a blazing 19:07. She may possibly be the only girl that has gone under 20:00 on the course. Psycho can correct me if I'm wrong.

Meanwhile, here is the stuff that Milepslit is spewing today: "HUGE jumps across the board in our NEW rankings." Those rankings are based solely on TIME. What I am afraid is happening to the sport is that because there is so much emphasis on time, meets with challenging courses are becoming less prominent. Too many are concerned with time instead of place and go to the meets with fast courses to get fast times.

Quote:
Originally Posted by FanOfRunning69 View Post
Correct, but then MMOC should make expressly clear how long the course is. I know a coach in the Columbus area measured it twice after the meet on Saturday and she told me it was between 90-110m short.

MMOC advertises their course as a 5k, which is wrong.
The number that I've heard is close to 90 meters also. It must have been a different coach because the person that I heard it from wasn't a "she."
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Old 10-02-17, 06:48 PM
gatornation gatornation is offline
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Girl from Grand Valley won in 19:55 this year at CVNP.
The maximum distance for competition, grades 9-l2 boys and girls, shall be 5,000 meters and 7-8 grade
boys and girls, shall be 3200 meters.
This is #1 in the Cross Country manual from Dale Gabor.
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Old 10-02-17, 10:20 PM
mathking mathking is offline
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God sometimes I feel like Sisyphus. OK, the problem most people have with MMOC (and Galion, and Trinity, and ...) is not really that they believe they are the wrong distance but that they are too fast. Before you blow up, think about it. If someone mis-measured a course and it was 5055 meters long there would not be the sense of moral outrage that we see here in this thread. People would tell their athletes "hey the course was long" and go on about their seasons. Even though that would actually be an illegal course. Furthermore, there are plenty of courses I know that have enough non-roped turns that if the course is legitimately measured at 5000 meters the athletes are running well under 5000 meters. But most of the those aren't super fast courses, so no one complains. So the problem is really a sense that somehow the times set at MMOC are cheating. No I don't think anyone is accusing the athletes running there of cheating, but there is a definite undertone of "those times are not legitimate" in this discussion. But think about that for a second. Why is it that so many are having a visceral reaction that those times are not legit, but we have people holding up CVNP as an example. If anything I would argue that CVNP is the course not representative of the typical XC meet. (That IS NOT A SLAM ON CVNP!!!! Repeat it is not a critique. If it were closer to us I suspect we would have asked Woodridge to be in the meet five or six years ago. We almost did anyway.) No one questions whether CVNP is regulation distance, they just say it has tough terrain therefore it must be the right length. So the problem with MMOC is not really a question of its legitimacy but rather how fast it is.

That happens with pretty much any fast course. Usually I don't bother measuring courses. (It's a pain. I spent 45 minutes on Saturday when I could have been doing something different. Though I did get a couple of nice pics out of it. Took a couple at the end of the process because at 2:45 there was literally no one left on the fields at all. It was kind of eerie by comparison to the crowds that had been there.) Because we don't really care about how long a course is, we just want to know how to compare times on one course to times on another. I have measured MMOC a couple of times, usually when the weather was great (2013, 2017) and times were smoking fast, to verify that the course was not significantly different than other times we have run there. I measured the Eisenhart course once because a coach I know insisted that he wheeled it and it was only 4850 meters long. And that I didn't know what I was talking about in terms of how accurate wheels were and using a laser rangefinder. So we measured the Thomas Worthington football field a couple of times then the course. I measured the Central Ohio Invitational course at Three Creeks the first year we ran their because I didn't have enough data to make a guess at how to interpret the times. I would love to have measured Lebanon in 2010, because tons of people here spent lots of time explaining how the course had to be short and that no one would run faster times that year. But it wasn't important enough to drive back down. Darby and Thomas are both under 15 minutes from Coffman. But I digress, even if I was trying to make a point. So back to the "fast courses are immoral" theme. I submit again that the negative reactions are that the course is somehow unfair. That some coach may say "that's the school record" when the course isn't legit. Again this is why we keep lists of who runs the fastest on each course, and try to compare each athlete's time to their time on the same course in prior years. And even more importantly, to other athletes in the same race. As impressive as Kreft's time was, it was more impressive to me that he beat Horter so decisively and all in the finish. It was also impressive how big a margin of victory those two had over the field. Bons didn't get to run in August because of injury, so he is "behind" in his training, but he is definitely getting back into good shape. He won at Lancaster fairly easily last week and he was 44 seconds behind Kreft. That is a lot of distance over a very good runner. Look at some of the runners who have run at MMOC over the years and still been much slower than Kreft and Horter were.

The really amusing thing for me now is I feel like the defense attorney for MMOC and I don't even particularly like the course. Although it is very well marked and prepared, which I appreciate. Personally I always liked hilly courses because I was better at them. In college I would finish 10-20 places better on the hilly courses than the flat ones and usually a couple places better on my team. But when we set our schedule for the year we thought MMOC would be at Bradley and the OCC meet would be at Davidson. Then both meets were moved to Darby. Oh well. I really do think a mix of courses is a good idea. But you should go to meets for a reason. We go to Pick North because it is the regional course. We go the DeWine meet because the dual meet structure helps remind kids that ultimately XC is about trying to beat other runners. Mason and Lancaster we go to because they are more physically challenging courses (I really do wish we were closer to CVNP), MMOC we go to in order to get as close to a state meet level of competition as we can. We go to Eisenhart because it is a good course and the one constant for us over the past couple of decades. That really helps in evaluating where the team is relative to other teams. I remember when the state meet moved to National Trails. There were tons of complaints about the course, including several from coaches complaining that their kids were disadvantaged because they don't get to run any flat, fast courses like that. (Interesting side note, if you use the USGS mapping software to compare Scioto Downs and National Trails, the difference in elevation changes between the courses might surprise you.) In this thread people have been arguing the opposite. For my part, I am not at all convinced that NT is significantly faster.

Here are the boys D1 athletes who competed in the final year at Scioto Downs and the first year at National Trails. Along with their 2010 and 2011 times:

Khalid Omar 15:37.6 16:25.9
Adam Davidson 15:39.2 15:42.3
Tsehaye Hiluf 15:48.4 15:21.5
Tony Howkins 15:52.3 15:41.7
Grant Onken 15:56.1 16:09.1
Jacob Dumford 16:04.9 15:42.3
Mitch Baum 16:06.4 15:56.0
Jack Miller 16:07.5 15:50.9
Nick Vogele 16:11.5 15:41.1
John Sotos 16:19.0 16:00.7
Matthew Krakora 16:22.4 15:43.8
Jake Graboski 16:25.6 16:29.2
Drew Michel 16:26.4 16:21.8
Kevin Blank 16:27.8 16:05.2
Max Haiss 16:29.7 16:32.2
Brian Brennan 16:32.4 16:14.7
Vince Bartram 16:34.6 16:28.3
Andrew Galang 16:35.0 16:22.6
Mark Ruf 16:35.9 16:30.6
Austin Bach 16:37.3 16:22.1
Kyle Lach 16:37.3 16:30.0
Connor Van Blaricom 16:39.8 16:46.0
Alex Notton 16:40.4 16:41.0
Dan Urbanek 16:40.6 16:25.6
Tom Clark 16:44.0 16:27.4
Mike Smithhisler 16:45.3 16:38.9
Jordan Shepherd 16:47.9 16:23.3
Trevor Norris 16:53.4 15:58.2
Grant Behnke 16:56.4 16:39.5
Sam Slingluff 16:59.0 16:56.0
John Riordan 17:03.1 16:35.7
Anthony Maraldo 17:08.4 16:50.8
Ryan Sanders 17:14.6 16:55.5
Kent Ford 17:16.9 16:14.0
Will Nouse 17:29.7 17:11.4

Both years were fantastic weather, so I counted that as pretty much the same. The average improvement was 15.4 seconds. That improvement is actually a little under typical year to year improvement. When all divisions and both genders are considered the average improvement is remarkable close to what was been typical for Scioto Downs. (I don't have data for state meets before Scioto Downs.) So my first level conclusion is to give the courses about the same rating. Subsequent years have lead me to conclude the NT is a little, but not much, faster. The real test will be when we have actual bad weather at NT. I keep data on all of the courses we run. And I look at it a few times, trying to do as much as I can to make it useful for making predictions and comparisons. For example, I throw out athletes that obviously had singularly terrible races and don't use them when I do the regression. Over the years I have developed a pretty good idea of how to compare times between courses and use those to make predictions.

So back to the original point. Why all the hate directed at MMOC? I think it is mostly because of the recognition that some receive. And I get it. There have been plenty of times in my coaching career when some course has been short and I have been viscerally bothered by that. Generally if it is within 100 meters then I really don't care. But there is a legitimate feeling of being cheated if you feel as though your team's race on the course they ran was actually more impressive than another teams race on a faster course. Yes it is absolutely true that for whatever reason Darby has a super fast course. OK. The Trinity-Valkyrie course is super fast. Galion is super fast. In fact almost all of the top times in the nation get set on super fast courses. If you think about it, it would be crazy for that not to be true. This Saturday it was not only a super fast course in great weather, it was two of the four best runners in the state running side by side for the great majority of the race. If you are in the "there is something wrong camp" then you should be happy. You explain to your kids that the times their can't trusted and that you will be able to surprise people down the road because you haven't run on a course like that.

Side, side note. The server I use to store and analyze is going away. I really need to write a new model that is less computationally intensive. If anyone is interested in the process I have been thinking about open sourcing the project, depending on how ambitious I get this winter during busy season (when indoor track and FIRST robotics overlap). In particular if anyone has programming skills I have been thinking that a better bot to do the data gathering would be good. Milesplit has become much less useful for that task.

Last edited by mathking; 10-03-17 at 07:27 AM..
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