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  #1  
Old 12-13-17, 02:55 PM
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2018 Senate Elections

Can the GOP defend their 51-49 advantage?

It's a tough election class for the Democrats with 25 of the 33 seats up for election already held by Dems. So only 8 opportunities to take the 2 seats necessary to gain an advantage, assuming they don't lose one of their 25 races.
(edit: I see the Dems have a 26th seat up for election with the Franken seat special election)

Of those 8 GOP seats, who is vulnerable?

Arizona (Jeff Flake Retiring)
Mississippi (incumbent Roger Wicker running)
Nebraska (incumbent Deb Fischer running)
Nevada (incumbent Dean Heller running)
Tennessee (incumbent Bob Corker running)
Texas (incumbent Ted Cruz running)
Utah (incumbent Orrin Hatch running)
Wyoming (incumbent John Barrasso running)


I don't see a lot there for the Democrats. Arizona and Nevada could be best opportunities. I know they dream of beating Cruz, but that is a tough sell.

There appears to be more vulnerability on the Dem side, with seats in states like Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, and West Virginia, as well as Florida, Ohio, and New Mexico.

Thoughts?
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  #2  
Old 12-13-17, 04:24 PM
TigerPaw TigerPaw is offline
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Based on the map I'd bet Dems lose 1-2 before gaining a couple. Too early for 2020 predictions but I could see Dems winning Pres. and Senate in a wave election the way things sit today.
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  #3  
Old 12-13-17, 04:34 PM
SWMCinci SWMCinci is offline
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They have a shot in Arizona and Nevada. Not much anywhere else. But like you said, it looks more likely that the Republicans may pick up 2 or more seats out of the ones held by Dems right now. There will also be a special election to replace Al Frankengroper in Minnesota. So maybe a wash.
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Old 12-13-17, 04:49 PM
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Dems best shot is to attack in Arizona and Nevada. A lot of their seats that are up will probably be easy wins, but best not to get comfortable and really put some spending into the ones that aren't sure things.
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  #5  
Old 12-13-17, 04:50 PM
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Can you imagine if Cruz loses his seat though? What an amazing day that would be
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  #6  
Old 12-13-17, 04:58 PM
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If the economy keeps growing then you can forget any changes in 2020. Ask Carville
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  #7  
Old 12-13-17, 05:38 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SWMCinci View Post
They have a shot in Arizona and Nevada. Not much anywhere else. But like you said, it looks more likely that the Republicans may pick up 2 or more seats out of the ones held by Dems right now. There will also be a special election to replace Al Frankengroper in Minnesota. So maybe a wash.
I would add Tennessee to your list but only because of who the Dems are running.

It will all come down to turnout. If the Dems can keep rallying the troops and turning out the vote they stand a good chance of taking back the senate. If they put up the same crappy candidates like the past few years nobody will be excited and they lose.
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  #8  
Old 12-13-17, 05:58 PM
Rohbino Rohbino is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SWMCinci View Post
There will also be a special election to replace Al Frankengroper in Minnesota. So maybe a wash.
A few months ago I would have never thought that Al Frakengroper and Donald Trumpgroper had anything in common.
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  #9  
Old 12-13-17, 06:13 PM
lotr10 lotr10 is offline
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In politics anything can happen - see President Donald Trump. But it appears to be a huge mountain to climb for the democrats to gain any seats in the Senate and the likely outcome is they will lose a couple of seats. Here's a few more points to throw out that haven't been mentioned yet:

* The GOP, thanks to Trump, has a big fund raising advantage over the dems so far. This will matter next year as the races enter the grueling phase of the competition.

* Moore's loss removes a big albatross from around the shoulders of those republicans running for the Senate. You just know that EVERY republican running for office would have been asked over & over & over & over again whether they support "molesters" in the Senate. The topic of debate during this cycle will now focus on the issues, both national & local, that matter to these states. The GOP IMO has a distinct advantage here as the democrats haven't been running on issues rather they're running on the message that Trump sucks.

* Don't forget that in Minnesota Trump lost by less then 44,000 votes out of a total of 2,900,000 cast. I think the GOP has a real chance to win the special election for Frankengropers seat.

* The Moore defeat has wakened both Trump & the republicans to the risks of not getting their political act together. Bottom line is that the GOP/White House is forewarned which means they are forearmed for the upcoming Senate battle. Meanwhile the dems appear to be concluding that the Jones win in Bama signals that folks suddenly love their policies including their #1 policy of hating Trump.
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  #10  
Old 12-13-17, 06:17 PM
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Arizona and Nevada are certainly in play. But they have to defend all their seats and win both of those to take back the senate. Basically they have to be perfect, but the Alabama loss has put it in play when it shouldn't have been.

I think if Republicans stay away from running insane people, they will defend at least one of those and pick off a couple Dem seats to actually increase their margin.
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  #11  
Old 12-13-17, 07:06 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Neopolitan View Post
Arizona and Nevada are certainly in play. But they have to defend all their seats and win both of those to take back the senate. Basically they have to be perfect, but the Alabama loss has put it in play when it shouldn't have been.

I think if Republicans stay away from running insane people, they will defend at least one of those and pick off a couple Dem seats to actually increase their margin.
Exactly. Don't date/bang/grope teenagers and you'll be good.
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  #12  
Old 12-13-17, 10:50 PM
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In order to impeach trump they need to win27 seats. Easy as pie
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  #13  
Old 12-14-17, 01:09 AM
Levi Levi is offline
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Republicans will at worst gain a seat or two in 2018.

CNN is all but guaranteeing the Dems regain the House and the Senate.
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  #14  
Old 12-14-17, 05:32 AM
cabezadecaballo cabezadecaballo is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zeeman View Post
If the economy keeps growing then you can forget any changes in 2020. Ask Carville
this
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  #15  
Old 12-14-17, 05:38 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Levi View Post
Republicans will at worst gain a seat or two in 2018.

CNN is all but guaranteeing the Dems regain the House and the Senate.
It's pretty simple. If 'Pubs embrace the Trump message of '16, they have no problems. Moore's candidacy was weak, and the Dem that defeated him did not really resemble the Dem azz-wipes that everyone outside the urban centers and coasts have rejected.
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  #16  
Old 12-14-17, 10:12 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TigerPaw View Post
Based on the map I'd bet Dems lose 1-2 before gaining a couple. Too early for 2020 predictions but I could see Dems winning Pres. and Senate in a wave election the way things sit today.
Hillary is warming up her little black van, and heading to Iowa....got to get with the people.....
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  #17  
Old 12-14-17, 10:43 AM
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Senate will finish at worst back at 52-48, and at best 54-46.

GOP might lose a dozen or so House seats...typical for a midterm election.
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  #18  
Old 12-14-17, 10:56 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BlueJayFan View Post
Can you imagine if Cruz loses his seat though? What an amazing day that would be
Hard to say until primaries, but somehow I doubt his seat is one of the vulnerables.
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  #19  
Old 12-16-17, 11:37 AM
cabezadecaballo cabezadecaballo is offline
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Will the 'Pubs self-destruct again, and squander the opportunity Trump presents ?

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-polit...enate-majority

Like the national POTUS election, the "best Republican" is seldom the best candidate in even a statewide general election.

We can thank Bannon for Moore. Would Trump's suggested 'Pub have won ? The Dems played the middle and squeaked one out in Alabama with Jones. We may see more of the same.


What a waste that would be.
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  #20  
Old 12-16-17, 03:59 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cabezadecaballo View Post
We can thank Bannon for Moore. Would Trump's suggested 'Pub have won ?
Strange would have won by 20+ points.

Bannon's "war on the GOP" is off to a strong start. You actually have to try to lose the Alabama senate seat if you're a Republican, and he managed to do it. The only reason to primary a reliable conservative candidate like Strange with a lunatic like Moore was to feed his own ego.

He's an emperor with no clothes and has been exposed as such.
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  #21  
Old 12-16-17, 04:39 PM
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Kelli Ward in Arizona is another Bannon backed candidate in the senate primary. If she wins the primary look for another senate seat to turn blue.
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  #22  
Old 12-16-17, 04:59 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Neopolitan View Post
Strange would have won by 20+ points.

Bannon's "war on the GOP" is off to a strong start. You actually have to try to lose the Alabama senate seat if you're a Republican, and he managed to do it. The only reason to primary a reliable conservative candidate like Strange with a lunatic like Moore was to feed his own ego.

He's an emperor with no clothes and has been exposed as such.
If they want to run some of these "fringe-ish" conservatives for selected Representative seats, to try to steer debate and maybe eventually secure real Committee power in the House, that makes sense to me on some levels. Thinking a Breitbart agenda will carry through in a state-wide or national election is dumb. Even in Alabama such a 'Pub has to be wart-free, and Moore was far from that.

Bannon aided Trump's election, to be sure, but I suspect Bannon's ego has over-estimated the widespread approval of his own agenda points. He could single-handedly destroy Republican chances at domination by "primary-ing" a few states.
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  #23  
Old 04-09-18, 08:53 AM
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Looking at the fields and polls, it is still a fight for them Dems to pick up the majority.

Republicans most vulnerable seats:
Arizona, where Flake is retiring.
(side note: if McCain stays beyond first week of May, his seat would not be voted on in 2018)
Nevada (Dean Heller)

Also at risk:
Mississippi special election (Cindy Hyde-Smith)
Tennessee (Corker retiring, Phil Bredesen (D) a formidable opponent)


Beyond these 4, it's difficult to see a seat loss for the GOP. But Dems could easily win AZ and NV; and TN will be interesting to see as former governor Bredesen will get some moderate votes. MS a longshot.

However, on the Democrat side, with 26 of the 35 seats up for election, they have some vulnerabilities as well, even with a possible Democrat wave in house seats.

Democrats most vulnerable seats:
Florida (Gov Rick Scott (R) going in vs Bill Nelson)
Indiana (Joe Donnelly is fighting the odds in a Rebublican-leaning state. Know more after primaries)
Missouri (A decent GOP candidate should get votes here, but not sure they have one)
North Dakota (Heavy GOP state, possible Kevin Cramer is already the favorote here)
West Virginia (Another heavy Republican state, with a DINO in Joe Manchin vulnerable if GOP can get candidate squared away. (Not Blankenship)

Also at risk:
Montana (still a heavy Republican state)
Ohio (If a GOP candidate stands out, not sure Renacci is it)
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  #24  
Old 04-09-18, 09:01 AM
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As of April 9, I will go with the GOP picking up one seat, moving advantage to 52-48.

Too many moving parts in House, but I'd expect the Democrats to pick up some. Will they pick up the 24 or so they need? Who knows. Would not be unprecedented in a mid-term election, but the way districts are gerry-mandered could make it less likely.
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Old 04-09-18, 09:05 AM
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I have GOP picking up Indiana and North Dakota, losing Nevada.
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Old 04-09-18, 09:06 AM
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I was waiting to see what happens in Florida, but it is possible GOP gained advantage there now
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  #27  
Old 04-09-18, 09:52 AM
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Agree that 52-48 is the most likely result...53-47 is now pretty feasible as well, assuming Rick Scott doesn't do anything dumb.

Had Trump not gone so all-in with the dumbazzery, the GOP should have had no problem getting to 60 this cycle.
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Old 04-09-18, 11:18 AM
SWMCinci SWMCinci is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EagleFan View Post
Can the GOP defend their 51-49 advantage?
........
For the Democrats, I think Arizona could be one seat they pick up. But I think they have real problems in holding the seat in Florida and could lose Missouri. I think the Republicans end up keeping the Senate and may pick up an additional seat.

I will not only vote for Rick Scott, I will support him as well. He's much better than Nelson.
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  #29  
Old 04-09-18, 12:45 PM
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Had Trump not gone so all-in with the dumbazzery, the GOP should have had no problem getting to 60 this cycle.
It was wrong Class of Senators to be up for the Democrats. Class II is up in 2020, with 21 Republicans and 12 Democrats.
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  #30  
Old 04-09-18, 01:20 PM
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Too many moving parts in House, but I'd expect the Democrats to pick up some. Will they pick up the 24 or so they need? Who knows. Would not be unprecedented in a mid-term election, but the way districts are gerry-mandered could make it less likely.
As a comparison, the GOP picked up 63 seats in 2010, 2 years after Obama took office.

Last times the sitting President did not lose seats in the midterm was 2002 and 1998
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