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  #1  
Old 09-03-17, 03:58 PM
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Region 1 after Week 2

Nine teams are 2-0. All but Shaker have reasons to believe they should finish with at least 7 wins and are close to a playoff lock. Ignatius, Eds, Solon, and McKinley are off to a strong start. Stow, Jackson, Perry, and Euclid are ones to watch out for too. Of the four teams that are 1-1, Mentor is the only one likely to finish with a winning record. So you can say with some level of certainty that there are nine teams vying for eight spots. Very small chance one of the other teams gets in contention to make the playoffs.

Of the 0-2 teams, GlenOak, Fitch, and Cleveland Heights are the ones that are routinely playoff teams lately. But with GlenOak having St Ignatius later in the season, they would essentially have to run through the Fed undefeated to make the playoffs. When was the last team to go undefeated in the impossible-to-figure-out Federal League?

Heights started off 0-2 last year and I thought they were left for dead. Then they went on to win six of seven to give themselves a chance to make the playoffs before they lost a play-in game to Lorain in Week 10. Does Heights have another run in them? After a loss to a team from Canada, I'm not so sure. If they want to be in the mix, they need to beat Benedictine (2-0) this week.

After losing to Brunswick, a team that should finish at the bottom of the GCC, I don't know that Fitch will finish with more than a few wins.

Big Region 1 games this week:

St Ignatius (2-0) vs Euclid (2-0)
Solon (2-0) vs Stow (2-0)
Jackson (2-0) vs Boardman (2-0)
McKinley (2-0) vs Hudson (2-0)
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  #2  
Old 09-03-17, 09:01 PM
IgnatianAMDG IgnatianAMDG is offline
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Thanks cardzfan,

Always enjoy your review threads.
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  #3  
Old 09-03-17, 10:08 PM
jackson03 jackson03 is offline
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If Jackson beats Boardman, they'll be well on their way points wise and I would pencil them in. They have a lot of very winnable games mid-to-late season. But beware their tendency to collapse down the stretch, especially in week 10.
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Old 09-04-17, 06:55 AM
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Excellent write-up. I think I agree it is basically 9 teams for the 8 spots. There does, though, seem to be a surprise team sneaking in sometimes, I just can't see who it is yet. Strongsville has 4 tough ones in a row starting Friday, but 2-2 and they could be in the picture.

Also, St. Edward and St. Ignatius have schedules that could produce 3 or more losses, which could bring another teams into the mix.
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  #5  
Old 09-05-17, 11:42 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jackson03 View Post
If Jackson beats Boardman, they'll be well on their way points wise and I would pencil them in. They have a lot of very winnable games mid-to-late season. But beware their tendency to collapse down the stretch, especially in week 10.
I have learned to expect the unexpected when it comes to the Federal League. As you point out, Jackson lost three October games after starting the season 6-0. McKinley lost three in a row after a six game winning streak. It is difficult to project matchups like GlenOak/Hoover or Jackson/McKinley.

Beating Akron East and Mayfield (a DII program that has been sliding down) does not give me any reason to say that Jackson will run through the Fed with at least 3 or 4 wins in the league. But I agree that beating Boardman (2-0) this week would put them in a real solid position. Assuming that 7 wins gets most teams in the playoffs, that would afford Jackson some wiggle room in the league if they can aim to go 3-1 or 4-0 in non-conference games.
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Old 09-05-17, 12:22 PM
jackson03 jackson03 is offline
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Originally Posted by cardzfan1234 View Post
I have learned to expect the unexpected when it comes to the Federal League. As you point out, Jackson lost three October games after starting the season 6-0. McKinley lost three in a row after a six game winning streak. It is difficult to project matchups like GlenOak/Hoover or Jackson/McKinley.

Beating Akron East and Mayfield (a DII program that has been sliding down) does not give me any reason to say that Jackson will run through the Fed with at least 3 or 4 wins in the league. But I agree that beating Boardman (2-0) this week would put them in a real solid position. Assuming that 7 wins gets most teams in the playoffs, that would afford Jackson some wiggle room in the league if they can aim to go 3-1 or 4-0 in non-conference games.
Until Jackson came in second place in the Fed last year, they had been stuck at about two league wins per year for quite some time. So it's something to keep in mind, especially if they lose on Friday. I could see scenarios where they only beat, say, Green and GlenOak in league play. I don't think that will happen, but I've seen many a season for them start off promising and tank. The new coach has been more successful in the Fed, though.
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  #7  
Old 09-05-17, 03:56 PM
perry1480 perry1480 is offline
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I see the Fed coming down to McKinley and Perry. It's very likely to have a tie for league champs... happens more often than not it seems like.

Hoover may surprise some teams and take a share of the title, but they're in DII, so I only mention them because of their ability to mess up the federal league pecking order.

it won't be until week 9 that the Fed will have shaken itself out, and that's the week that Perry and McKinley square off.

I don't think GlenOak is going to do much this year, but then again it is the federal league.

I see 2 Fed teams qualifying for the D1 playoffs.
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  #8  
Old 09-05-17, 04:50 PM
jackson03 jackson03 is offline
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Fantastic 50 projections are up. I know a lot of people dislike them, but they're fun enough to compare with. Here's the Region 1 projections:

1. Cleveland St. Ignatius (9-1)
2. Mentor (8-2)
3. Canton McKinley (8-2)
4. Solon (8-2)
5. Lakewood St. Edward (8-2)
6. Euclid (7-3)
7. Stow-Munroe Falls (8-2)
8. Massillon Jackson (7-3)

9. Massillon Perry (8-2)

After that the point totals drop off hugely. Everyone else .500 or under, except Rhodes at 6-4 but way down the list. Perry's out-of-conference schedule is predicted to fare very poorly, making them most likely to be the bubble team without a win over McKinley.
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Old 09-05-17, 04:59 PM
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Stow also with a relatively small margin of error due to strength of schedule concerns. 7-3 would drop them behind Perry by 2.5 points in the above scenario.
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  #10  
Old 09-05-17, 05:09 PM
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Region 1 after Week 2

Quote:
Originally Posted by jackson03 View Post
Fantastic 50 projections are up. I know a lot of people dislike them, but they're fun enough to compare with. Here's the Region 1 projections:



1. Cleveland St. Ignatius (9-1)

2. Mentor (8-2)

3. Canton McKinley (8-2)

4. Solon (8-2)

5. Lakewood St. Edward (8-2)

6. Euclid (7-3)

7. Stow-Munroe Falls (8-2)

8. Massillon Jackson (7-3)



9. Massillon Perry (8-2)



After that the point totals drop off hugely. Everyone else .500 or under, except Rhodes at 6-4 but way down the list. Perry's out-of-conference schedule is predicted to fare very poorly, making them most likely to be the bubble team without a win over McKinley.
I like Pasteur's stuff. Like I speculated, a very strong chance we already know there are 9 teams vying for 8 spots.

As for the projections on Mentor, Euclid, and Solon - this simulation averages them at a total of 7 losses. They are likely to combine for just 5 losses (assuming Euclid loses to Ignatius, Solon beats Stow, and Mentor beats Glenville).
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Old 09-05-17, 07:07 PM
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If McKinley beats Hudson on Friday, we might effectively have four teams fighting over three spots. No doubt there will be surprises, but it's looking fairly likely that the playoff picture is as solid as I've ever seen it after just two weeks.

If you're Jackson, you really want those Boardman and Central wins. Beating Central denies any potential advantage Perry might get from L2 points that Central would provide, and Boardman's non-Fed L2s are a huge boon. It would almost certainly ensure a one-game advantage like in Pasteur's scenario. Perry is so reliant on L2s from Fed teams that are beating each other up (and the top of Region 1 may be locked up enough) that at 9-1 they are very likely on the road.

That said, there are ways both could push out Euclid or Stow. Or someone takes a surprise dive.
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  #12  
Old 09-06-17, 06:25 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jackson03 View Post
Fantastic 50 projections are up. I know a lot of people dislike them, but they're fun enough to compare with. Here's the Region 1 projections:

1. Cleveland St. Ignatius (9-1)
2. Mentor (8-2)
3. Canton McKinley (8-2)
4. Solon (8-2)
5. Lakewood St. Edward (8-2)
6. Euclid (7-3)
7. Stow-Munroe Falls (8-2)
8. Massillon Jackson (7-3)

9. Massillon Perry (8-2)
In Pasteur's R1 standings, he has McKinley at #3 with an 8-2 record; but in his game predictions, he doesn't have McKinley losing.

Aug 26 (W1) W 29-7 H #71 Warren G Harding (0-1 D2 R5), pick: W by 1
Sep 01 (W2) W 38-0 H Wayne Hills NJ (0-1 D3)
Sep 08 (W3) H #20 Hudson (2-0 D2 R5), pick: W by 2
Sep 15 (W4) H #151 Uniontown Green (1-1 D2 R5), pick: W by 23
Sep 22 (W5) A #57 North Canton Hoover (2-0 D2 R7), pick: W by 8
Sep 29 (W6) H #111 Uniontown Lake (1-1 D2 R7), pick: W by 19
Oct 06 (W7) A #39 Massillon Jackson (2-0 D1 R1), pick: W by 5
Oct 13 (W8) H #96 Canton GlenOak (0-2 D1 R1), pick: W by 17
Oct 20 (W9) A #34 Massillon Perry (2-0 D1 R1), pick: W by 3
Oct 28 (W10) H #37 Massillon Washington (1-1 D2 R7), pick: W by 7
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  #13  
Old 09-06-17, 06:36 AM
jackson03 jackson03 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by just a fan View Post
In Pasteur's R1 standings, he has McKinley at #3 with an 8-2 record; but in his game predictions, he doesn't have McKinley losing.
Kind of the way he does it, it's like the median of all the simulations of the seasons he runs. So according to him, McKinley has a 52% chance of beating Hudson and the average margin of victory is 2 points, a 67% chance of beating Hoover by 8, a 61% chance of beating Jackson by 5, a 56% chance of beating Perry by 3, and a 65% chance of beating Massillon by 7. In many of those simulations you'll have say, wins against Massillon, Jackson, and Hoover and losses to Hudson and Perry, or some other combination.

His stuff should be taken with a grain of salt until week 4-5, when there's more info in the algorithm to get a better handle on the chances of wins and all that, and the predicted final records start to match up with the playoff probabilities and positioning. There are a couple teams to the north that could mess things up for the Cleveland teams (Twinsburg, Wadsworth, etc.) and it's still an open question whether we have one dominant team in the Fed or a lot of teams trading big wins (Jackson over Perry, Perry over McKinley, Hoover over Jackson, and so on) as we usually do.
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Old 09-06-17, 10:13 AM
fantastic50 fantastic50 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jackson03 View Post
Kind of the way he does it, it's like the median of all the simulations of the seasons he runs.
Yes, it's this. On average, McKinley would lose two games along the way, even though they're favored in all of them.

Here's how I often explain it. Imagine if the Browns were a touchdown underdog in every game ... what would expect their final record to be. Probably not 0-16. The best guess (over/under on number of wins) would likely be around 4-12 or 5-11.

As others have said, give it about two more weeks. After week #4, the track record starts to become fairly solid.
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Old 09-06-17, 07:15 PM
USA70PP USA70PP is online now
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Couldn't think where to put this and didn't think it needed a separate thread.

While checking on another team, I came across this in 2000.
Div 1 Reg 2, final standings.
1 Massillon Perry 9-1, 2 Washington 8-2 and 4 Jackson 8-2. Have any other cities, other than Cleveland, Columbus, Cincinnati, with multiple schools have three teams get home games in the play-offs?
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Old 09-06-17, 07:32 PM
darbydavidsonfan darbydavidsonfan is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by USA70PP View Post
Couldn't think where to put this and didn't think it needed a separate thread.

While checking on another team, I came across this in 2000.
Div 1 Reg 2, final standings.
1 Massillon Perry 9-1, 2 Washington 8-2 and 4 Jackson 8-2. Have any other cities, other than Cleveland, Columbus, Cincinnati, with multiple schools have three teams get home games in the play-offs?
Pretty sure Pickerington (Central Ohio team) ended up winning that regional that year too.
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Old 09-06-17, 07:42 PM
PicktownBandDad PicktownBandDad is offline
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UA's super team won it all that year.

The Tigers were upset in the second round by Logan. Both of their first team All State Players (Reed with Mono and Redd with a season ending injury) did not play.
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Old 09-06-17, 08:48 PM
perry1480 perry1480 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by darbydavidsonfan View Post
Pretty sure Pickerington (Central Ohio team) ended up winning that regional that year too.
That was '99. They then got obliterated by Iggy the following week.

in 2000 Solon upset Iggy and made it to the State Final.
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Old 09-08-17, 10:15 PM
jackson03 jackson03 is offline
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McKinley wins. Stow beats Solon. Jackson loses to Boardman.

Stow over Solon makes it unlikely Stow gets pushed out. Solon is still in solid position. If all else holds up, you have Perry, Jackson, and Euclid battling for the final spot. Jackson winds up at a severe disadvantage if they lose to Perry next week, since they would then probably need to win 5 of the next 6 or hope Perry or Euclid collapses.
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Old 09-08-17, 10:23 PM
BHSspartans13 BHSspartans13 is offline
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Ehh 99...the year Boardman blew what, a 28-7 lead against Picktown?
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