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  #1  
Old 10-26-17, 01:47 AM
andegre andegre is offline
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WrestleStat Preseason Rankings!

Here are the final WrestleStat season rankings before we actually get some match results entered into the system.

Wrestler Rankings (top 33 at each weight): https://www.wrestlestat.com/rankings/wrestler

125: https://www.wrestlestat.com/rankings/weight/125
133: https://www.wrestlestat.com/rankings/weight/133
141: https://www.wrestlestat.com/rankings/weight/141
149: https://www.wrestlestat.com/rankings/weight/149
157: https://www.wrestlestat.com/rankings/weight/157
165: https://www.wrestlestat.com/rankings/weight/165
174: https://www.wrestlestat.com/rankings/weight/174
184: https://www.wrestlestat.com/rankings/weight/184
197: https://www.wrestlestat.com/rankings/weight/197
285: https://www.wrestlestat.com/rankings/weight/285

Dual Rankings: https://www.wrestlestat.com/rankings/dual

Tournament Rankings: https://www.wrestlestat.com/rankings/tournament
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  #2  
Old 10-26-17, 04:34 AM
jmog jmog is offline
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I guess I don’t understand 197. Moore beat McCutcheon head to head and placed higher at both B10s and NCAAs.
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  #3  
Old 10-26-17, 06:50 AM
Pile Driver Pile Driver is offline
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I’d sign up for those results RIGHT NOW!!!
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  #4  
Old 10-26-17, 09:45 AM
bdhof bdhof is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jmog View Post
I guess I don’t understand 197. Moore beat McCutcheon head to head and placed higher at both B10s and NCAAs.
It's a statistical analysis. You plug in the data and see what comes out. But I agree that 197 is a head scratcher. I think the computer must have gotten a virus that distorted this weight, with Moore at 4 behind 3 McCutch, 2 Haught and 1 Milkus.

This site is really good for quick research - to find how wrestler "A" might do against wrestler "B." When you plug in #4 Moore vs #3 McCutch, you get a 9-4 victory prediction for Moore. For #2 Haught you get a 10-4 prediction for Moore. #1 Milkus is given a 11-7 prediction over Moore. Moore has beaten both Haught and McCutch in the only match-ups, and has never wrestled Milkus (RS last year). Milkus has lost to MCutch but has wrestled close matches to Cox in the past.

The wrestler match-ups also give you all the common opponents and results, which is a great feature. You can also do a dual meet match-up to see how team "A" will do against team "B." On this feature you can change the lineup, but it won't change the team score. For example, they have Mead at 125 (Nate on injury list) losing and tOSU losing the dual 18-16. You can insert Nato and he wins by TF but the dual score won't change. So, you can do the math and figure that tOSU wins 21-15.

As I said earlier, the site is good for research, but has its limits. At times (rarely that I've seen), wrong info gets plugged in (might list a wrestler who is a junior as a sophomore).

Last edited by bdhof; 10-26-17 at 11:49 AM.
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  #5  
Old 10-26-17, 10:05 AM
bdhof bdhof is offline
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And much to the displeasure of PSU, BoJo is #1 and Hall is #3 at 174.
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  #6  
Old 10-26-17, 07:52 PM
Yankeefan33 Yankeefan33 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bdhof View Post
It's a statistical analysis. You plug in the data and see what comes out. But I agree that 197 is a head scratcher. I think the computer must have gotten a virus that distorted this weight, with Moore at 4 behind 3 McCutch, 2 Haught and 1 Milkus.

This site is really good for quick research - to find how wrestler "A" might do against wrestler "B." When you plug in #4 Moore vs #3 McCutch, you get a 9-4 victory prediction for Moore. For #2 Haught you get a 10-4 prediction for Moore. #1 Milkus is given a 11-7 prediction over Moore. Moore has beaten both Haught and McCutch in the only match-ups, and has never wrestled Milkus (RS last year). Milkus has lost to MCutch but has wrestled close matches to Cox in the past.

The wrestler match-ups also give you all the common opponents and results, which is a great feature. You can also do a dual meet match-up to see how team "A" will do against team "B." On this feature you can change the lineup, but it won't change the team score. For example, they have Mead at 125 (Nate on injury list) losing and tOSU losing the dual 18-16. You can insert Nato and he wins by TF but the dual score won't change. So, you can do the math and figure that tOSU wins 21-15.

As I said earlier, the site is good for research, but has its limits. At times (rarely that I've seen), wrong info gets plugged in (might list a wrestler who is a junior as a sophomore).
I use WrestleState all the time- another feature I like is the video links on the side of the matchups. Mostly available for the top guys, but still a cool feature.
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  #7  
Old 10-27-17, 08:04 AM
andegre andegre is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bdhof View Post
It's a statistical analysis. You plug in the data and see what comes out. But I agree that 197 is a head scratcher. I think the computer must have gotten a virus that distorted this weight, with Moore at 4 behind 3 McCutch, 2 Haught and 1 Milkus.

This site is really good for quick research - to find how wrestler "A" might do against wrestler "B." When you plug in #4 Moore vs #3 McCutch, you get a 9-4 victory prediction for Moore. For #2 Haught you get a 10-4 prediction for Moore. #1 Milkus is given a 11-7 prediction over Moore. Moore has beaten both Haught and McCutch in the only match-ups, and has never wrestled Milkus (RS last year). Milkus has lost to MCutch but has wrestled close matches to Cox in the past.

The wrestler match-ups also give you all the common opponents and results, which is a great feature. You can also do a dual meet match-up to see how team "A" will do against team "B." On this feature you can change the lineup, but it won't change the team score. For example, they have Mead at 125 (Nate on injury list) losing and tOSU losing the dual 18-16. You can insert Nato and he wins by TF but the dual score won't change. So, you can do the math and figure that tOSU wins 21-15.

As I said earlier, the site is good for research, but has its limits. At times (rarely that I've seen), wrong info gets plugged in (might list a wrestler who is a junior as a sophomore).
Yes, the dual comparison page, update the team scores when swapping our wrestlers at a weight is a known bug. It's probably something that I should have fixed sooner, but I haven't. It's honestly not a very tough fixed, I've just been focused on the other updates this offseason.

WHEN I get it fixed, I'm also going to add a "running" score on that page to. So it will give the updated score after each weight so you can see where the dual stands if it were to start at 125.
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  #8  
Old 10-27-17, 08:05 AM
andegre andegre is offline
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Regarding the questions about 197....my response that I've posted on other threads will answer that, so I'll paste it here as well.

--------------------------------------------------
I'll try to answer a few of the questions/concerns in the thread....

Wilcke has moved to 197, don't know how I missed that.

Yes, it's only as good as the data that's coming in...which is all of the wrestlers division I matches. Can't get more than that.

Re: head-to-head folkstyle results, yes, those are included in the rankings, if they weren't, there wouldn't be anything to go against, since I'd have no data. Now, are head-to-head matches WEIGHTED differently, no. That's reserved for the prediction engine (which unfortunately did not get an update this offseason because I was too busy with other stuff for the site).

Re: Algorithm, if anyone's familiar with the rating system, or online gaming rating systems, it takes TIME (aka matches) to continually build up a wrestlers rating. The more matches a wrestler has, the more "weight" his rating has. Even if a wrestler (young/new guy) has beaten someone that is higher than them, it doesn't mean they'll get ranked above them, in this system. That win(s) definitely give an additional boost in their rating, but that other wrestler has already had MORE big wins prior to that, which is why their rating is still higher.

Also, these rankings are exactly the same as last year's final rankings, just with seniors removed. Since they don't have any results yet this season, there's no possible way for them to move up or down. This is merely reflecting the weight changes, along with the seniors being removed.

Re: Hodge rankings, since the Hodge is on a yearly basis, and based on the dominance during that season, there are no matches yet this season so the only thing it has to go on (in MY system), is their rating. So right now, it's basically displaying the top X guys, regardless of weight. As soon as matches start coming in, it will start factoring in "dominance" stuff, ie Falls, TFs, etc.

I understand that not everyone agrees with these, hell, I don't agree with some of them. But they keep human bias, and our "eyes" out of the equation and let the math do the work.

For the future, I'm working on a blog post right now to analyze the rankings of every season in WrestleStat, and how that compares to the wrestlers' finish for each season. The current version of the algorithm has only been used for 1 season 2016-2017), but reprocessed all results for EVERY season specifically for this test. I did not change any previous rankings in the database since those were already calculated and released. I want to show the validity/non-validity of the CURRENT algorithm to either raise/lower the comfort level with the rankings. If it ends up being low, or realize the final season rankings are way off from reality, then I'll look into tweaking the algorithm more. Honestly, I should probably be doing that every offseason anyway because more data should help me tailor the algorithm better specifically for wrestling.

Thanks for checking these out everyone. I do appreciate both the positive and negative feedback. I just never anticipated the amount of feedback I've received since yesterday, because it's WAY more than usual.

Keep commenting!
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