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  #31  
Old 11-13-18, 06:06 PM
JcksnPlrBrs2002 JcksnPlrBrs2002 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fish82 View Post
Actually just Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Trump just needs to hold one of them.

To me, this is one of the main arguments for Brown or someone like him. Say what you will about that kind of candidate, but the DNC has to figure out what to do about the Midwest in any event.
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  #32  
Old 11-13-18, 07:00 PM
winbypin winbypin is offline
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Originally Posted by JcksnPlrBrs2002 View Post
To me, this is one of the main arguments for Brown or someone like him. Say what you will about that kind of candidate, but the DNC has to figure out what to do about the Midwest in any event.
Since their last strategy was to just ignore the Midwest basically any change in tactics has to be an improvement.
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  #33  
Old 11-13-18, 07:06 PM
winbypin winbypin is offline
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Originally Posted by BlueJayFan View Post
Trump will drive up the Dem turnout in 2020 like he did in the midterms this year.

And i agree that it won't be easy. It's essentially going to come down to Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.
I don't know if you guys can keep the faux outrage going for two more years. It has to be exhausting.

If the economy stays strong, unemployment down, and wages up it will be tough for the Dems in 2020.
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  #34  
Old 11-13-18, 07:22 PM
nwwarrior09 nwwarrior09 is online now
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The DNC strategy in the Midwest should be 1) actually campaign here, heavily and 2) run a center-left/moderate populist that is actually relatable to the "common man". I have serious doubts that they are capable of this, so if the economic numbers stay up I'd look for a second Trump term and a lot of liberal/progressive tears from ideological Dems who failed to learn from 2016 and the red state congressional elections they've spent hand over fist in and have still lost.

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  #35  
Old 11-13-18, 09:13 PM
Stirred not Shaken Stirred not Shaken is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nwwarrior09 View Post
The DNC strategy in the Midwest should be 1) actually campaign here, heavily and 2) run a center-left/moderate populist that is actually relatable to the "common man". I have serious doubts that they are capable of this, so if the economic numbers stay up I'd look for a second Trump term and a lot of liberal/progressive tears from ideological Dems who failed to learn from 2016 and the red state congressional elections they've spent hand over fist in and have still lost.

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Hillary a really bad candidate got 232 electoral votes, those votes are not going to Trump. The Dems just need to pick up 38 more electoral votes ( Whisky, Mich. and Penn barely went for Trump ) and they win in 2020.
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  #36  
Old 11-13-18, 09:16 PM
Stirred not Shaken Stirred not Shaken is offline
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Originally Posted by JcksnPlrBrs2002 View Post
To me, this is one of the main arguments for Brown or someone like him. Say what you will about that kind of candidate, but the DNC has to figure out what to do about the Midwest in any event.
Or win Fla. and Az.
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  #37  
Old 11-13-18, 09:25 PM
SWMCinci SWMCinci is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Stirred not Shaken View Post
Hillary a really bad candidate got 232 electoral votes, those votes are not going to Trump. The Dems just need to pick up 38 more electoral votes ( Whisky, Mich. and Penn barely went for Trump ) and they win in 2020.
Are they? The Dems are going to attack and investigate and not accomplish anything for the next 2 years. Moderates and Independents will take note that the Dems accomplished none of what they ran on. Trump is going to win again, I think the Republicans hold onto the Senate and pick up a couple more seats and probably reclaim the House.

For the Democrats to win in 2020 they are going to have to do something they've demonstrated that they are incapable of, they are going to have to work with Republicans, pass legislation that makes sense to the people and that the Senate and President can go along with...…. that's going to include building a wall, comprehensive immigration reform that eliminates incentives to break our laws, and a modification to Obamascam that returns control to the states and protects the things that don't involve government subsidies, and MASSIVE welfare reform (what kept Clinton in office 20 years ago)….. they will get some of what they want but are going to have to give up some stuff too.
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  #38  
Old 11-13-18, 09:26 PM
SWMCinci SWMCinci is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Stirred not Shaken View Post
Or win Fla. and Az.
Florida, no. Demonstrated that far left is a non-starter for state-wide candidates.
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  #39  
Old 11-13-18, 09:32 PM
irish_buffalo irish_buffalo is offline
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I like Brown but he would be poor choice on a National stage IMO.

I'd like to see Beto.
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  #40  
Old 11-13-18, 09:37 PM
SWMCinci SWMCinci is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by irish_buffalo View Post
I like Brown but he would be poor choice on a National stage IMO.

I'd like to see Beto.
He couldn't beat Cruz..... he may be the next Hillary.
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  #41  
Old 11-13-18, 10:47 PM
BlueJayFan BlueJayFan is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SWMCinci View Post
He couldn't beat Cruz..... he may be the next Hillary.
Beto got more voters in a midterm in Texas than Hillary got in a general election in Texas.

I like Beto, but I don't think he's ready for a national race and he lacks experience. I think he could work as a VP for 2020 though.
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  #42  
Old 11-14-18, 07:30 AM
Stirred not Shaken Stirred not Shaken is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SWMCinci View Post
Are they? The Dems are going to attack and investigate and not accomplish anything for the next 2 years. Moderates and Independents will take note that the Dems accomplished none of what they ran on. Trump is going to win again, I think the Republicans hold onto the Senate and pick up a couple more seats and probably reclaim the House.

For the Democrats to win in 2020 they are going to have to do something they've demonstrated that they are incapable of, they are going to have to work with Republicans, pass legislation that makes sense to the people and that the Senate and President can go along with...…. that's going to include building a wall, comprehensive immigration reform that eliminates incentives to break our laws, and a modification to Obamascam that returns control to the states and protects the things that don't involve government subsidies, and MASSIVE welfare reform (what kept Clinton in office 20 years ago)….. they will get some of what they want but are going to have to give up some stuff too.
Dems do not have to do anything. If the economy goes south Trump will get blamed. Once again the only people who vote GOP are mostly white males and married white females that is a fact. The north east and west coast is completely democratic. Midwest is 50 - 50 the south mostly GOP but in Fla. the republican candidates ( for gov. and senate ) barely won and in Ga. the Republican governor candidate barely def. a very liberal candidate. Remember Trump lost the national election by nearly 2 % points which means the states that voted against him voted against him big. GOP better start making inroads to Hispanics or in the very near future will have a very hard time winning Texas or Fla. When I was young California was almost as Republican as Texas is now, things change and the GOP needs to change. BTW Trump's victory in Texas was the smallest margin of victory by the GOP in a presidential contest since 1996.

Last edited by Stirred not Shaken; 11-14-18 at 07:43 AM.
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  #43  
Old 11-14-18, 07:45 AM
19AL63 19AL63 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Stirred not Shaken View Post
Dems do not have to do anything. If the economy goes south Trump will get blamed. Once again the only people who vote GOP are mostly white males and married white females that is a fact. The north east and west coast is completely democratic. Midwest is 50 - 50 the south mostly GOP but in Fla. the republican candidates ( for gov. and senate ) barely won and in Ga. the Republican governor candidate barely def. a very liberal candidate. Remember Trump lost the national election by nearly 2 % points which means the states that voted against him voted against him big. GOP better start making inroads to Hispanics or in the very near future will have a very hard time winning Texas or Fla. When I was young California was almost as Republican as Texas is now, things change and the GOP needs to change.
Great there we go again a D wishing the economy would go south and then in his last statement says the GOP has to change. I ask to what? To being a Liberal Democrat? I keep watching states and cities that are ruled and controlled by Democrats going south big time and I ask why would I want to become like that? Keep watching your best example of a Democrat state Ca. I keep wondering how long it will be before it is asking the Fed Govt to help bail it out. They are backwards on so many thing and one being their retirement plans another is the number of people on some type of welfare wait and watch. Could this be one of the things that will help turn the economy the wrong direction?
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  #44  
Old 11-14-18, 07:45 AM
y2h y2h is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Stirred not Shaken View Post
Dems do not have to do anything. If the economy goes south Trump will get blamed. Once again the only people who vote GOP are mostly white males and married white females that is a fact. The north east and west coast is completely democratic. Midwest is 50 - 50 the south mostly GOP but in Fla. the republican candidates ( for gov. and senate ) barely won and in Ga. the Republican governor candidate barely def. a very liberal candidate. Remember Trump lost the national election by nearly 2 % points which means the states that voted against him voted against him big. GOP better start making inroads to Hispanics or in the very near future will have a very hard time winning Texas or Fla. When I was young California was almost as Republican as Texas is now, things change and the GOP needs to change.
Lowest Hispanic unemployment ever...id say that's a pretty good in road.

If you mean going open borders and ignoring immigration enforcement they might as well not even exist as a party.
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  #45  
Old 11-14-18, 08:27 AM
Stirred not Shaken Stirred not Shaken is offline
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Originally Posted by y2h View Post
Lowest Hispanic unemployment ever...id say that's a pretty good in road.

If you mean going open borders and ignoring immigration enforcement they might as well not even exist as a party.
The fact is by 2045 " white people " will no longer make up more than 50 % of the population in the US :https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-a...nsus-projects/. GOP needs to make changes toward Hispanics or they will have a very difficult time winning national elections.
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  #46  
Old 11-14-18, 09:32 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BlueJayFan View Post
Beto got more voters in a midterm in Texas than Hillary got in a general election in Texas.

I like Beto, but I don't think he's ready for a national race and he lacks experience. I think he could work as a VP for 2020 though.
When you say you "like him"; do you mean his personality, or his radical Marxist agenda, or both?
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  #47  
Old 11-14-18, 09:33 AM
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Auggie Auggie is offline
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When talking about the Dems to watch for 2020 you also need to look at their early primary calendar:

Mon, Feb 3 Iowa Caucuses
Tue, Feb 11 New Hampshire
Sat, Feb 15 Nevada Caucus (D)
Sat, Feb 22 South Carolina (D)

These are the traditional first grouping; the candidates and their teams will know these contests. These should sort out the wannabees and by the end of Feb there should be a more manageable field. Now the new Super Tuesday is very interesting:

Tue, Mar 3 Alabama
Tue, Mar 3 California
Tue, Mar 3 Massachusetts
Tue, Mar 3 North Carolina
Tue, Mar 3 Oklahoma
Tue, Mar 3 Tennessee
Tue, Mar 3 Texas
Tue, Mar 3 Vermont
Tue, Mar 3 Virginia

What stands out is there are two home states for a couple of the front runners, Harris' California & Waren's Mass, plus those are expensive markets to run ads in. Throw in Texas if Beto runs and you have the makings of nothing sorting out and candidates burning through some serious $s. The following week see a mostly Midwest swing high lighted by MI, MO, & OH which will be key to winning in the fall. Spring 2020 will be very expesnive to the Democartic field.

Because of the calendar and the $s needed to be competitive on 3/3/20 establishment candidates will probably be the favorites. Right now the early leader is Biden followed by Sanders & Warren. The wild card will be the media darling that can raise $s on their own like Beto. With this in mind Sherrod Brown really doesn't stand a chance.
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  #48  
Old 11-14-18, 09:36 AM
SWMCinci SWMCinci is offline
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Originally Posted by Stirred not Shaken View Post
The fact is by 2045 " white people " will no longer make up more than 50 % of the population in the US :https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-a...nsus-projects/. GOP needs to make changes toward Hispanics or they will have a very difficult time winning national elections.
By that time, will Hispanics even be a distinct population? We don't count Irish and the Dutch here. That's almost a generation and a half - will they be more American or still consider themselves Mexican/Honduran by that time?
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  #49  
Old 11-14-18, 09:39 AM
JcksnPlrBrs2002 JcksnPlrBrs2002 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Auggie View Post
When talking about the Dems to watch for 2020 you also need to look at their early primary calendar:

Mon, Feb 3 Iowa Caucuses
Tue, Feb 11 New Hampshire
Sat, Feb 15 Nevada Caucus (D)
Sat, Feb 22 South Carolina (D)

These are the traditional first grouping; the candidates and their teams will know these contests. These should sort out the wannabees and by the end of Feb there should be a more manageable field. Now the new Super Tuesday is very interesting:

Tue, Mar 3 Alabama
Tue, Mar 3 California
Tue, Mar 3 Massachusetts
Tue, Mar 3 North Carolina
Tue, Mar 3 Oklahoma
Tue, Mar 3 Tennessee
Tue, Mar 3 Texas
Tue, Mar 3 Vermont
Tue, Mar 3 Virginia

What stands out is there are two home states for a couple of the front runners, Harris' California & Waren's Mass, plus those are expensive markets to run ads in. Throw in Texas if Beto runs and you have the makings of nothing sorting out and candidates burning through some serious $s. The following week see a mostly Midwest swing high lighted by MI, MO, & OH which will be key to winning in the fall.

Because of the calendar and the $s needed to be competitive on 3/3/20 establishment candidates will probably be the favorites. Right now the early leader is Biden followed by Sanders & Warren. The wild card will be the media darling that can raise $s on their own like Beto. With this in mind Sherrod Brown really doesn't stand a chance.

Much of this generally true, but I think it's really important to keep in mind that few things are less static in politics than "projected favorites in a primary". Bill Clinton pretty much came out of nowhere during his first cycle, it wasn't expected that Obama was going to beat Hillary, nobody in million years thought Sanders was going to do anything more than get a few percentage points in some early states, very few people pegged Trump as a front-runner at the beginning of the Republican primary, etc., etc.
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  #50  
Old 11-14-18, 03:51 PM
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“If Stacey Abrams doesn’t win in Georgia, they stole it.”

RIP Sherrod. If you see Merrick Garland in heaven, tell him fish says hi.
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  #51  
Old 11-14-18, 03:59 PM
TigerPaw TigerPaw is online now
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Originally Posted by Auggie View Post
When talking about the Dems to watch for 2020 you also need to look at their early primary calendar:

Mon, Feb 3 Iowa Caucuses
Can I say this?: F**K Iowa. Why do a bunch of hayseeds with 6 votes get so much pull in our Presidential elections? How bout mixing it up some, with a few more key purple states?
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  #52  
Old 11-14-18, 04:14 PM
JcksnPlrBrs2002 JcksnPlrBrs2002 is offline
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Originally Posted by TigerPaw View Post
Can I say this?: F**K Iowa. Why do a bunch of hayseeds with 6 votes get so much pull in our Presidential elections? How bout mixing it up some, with a few more key purple states?

The "given explanation" is that they want to have some smaller states up front so that a smaller campaign has a realistic chance to gain some momentum. The idea is that they don't want to have a campaign that starts out small getting "swamped" by larger campaigns in larger media markets if that smaller candidate was going to eventually build steam and become the actual best choice.

It's a legitimate question to raise, but how well the current primary system actually addresses that concern, or how much it even needs to be addressed, is very much up for debate.
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  #53  
Old 11-14-18, 04:21 PM
irish_buffalo irish_buffalo is offline
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Originally Posted by SWMCinci View Post
He couldn't beat Cruz..... he may be the next Hillary.
In a district in which a dead Pub would get voted in over a Dem and he ALMOST won. For a Dem he makes sense. Does not jump on every BS cause.
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  #54  
Old 11-14-18, 04:54 PM
Altor Altor is offline
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Originally Posted by TigerPaw View Post
Why do a bunch of hayseeds ...
More racism from TP.
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  #55  
Old 11-14-18, 06:01 PM
Killer Joe Killer Joe is offline
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Originally Posted by irish_buffalo View Post
In a district in which a dead Pub would get voted in over a Dem and he ALMOST won. For a Dem he makes sense. Does not jump on every BS cause.
What district? He was running for a US Senate seat, which includes all of the more Democratic big cities in Texas...
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  #56  
Old 11-14-18, 08:04 PM
irish_buffalo irish_buffalo is offline
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Ugh...meant state, but nice catch. You really have no idea what I was getting at? He almost unseated a sitting Republican Senator in a RED state. Very tough to do. Beto is good.
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  #57  
Old 11-14-18, 09:24 PM
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John Kasich in 2020?
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  #58  
Old 11-14-18, 11:39 PM
Zunardo Zunardo is offline
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Originally Posted by Deep View Post
John Kasich in 2020?
For which party?
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  #59  
Old 11-15-18, 06:34 AM
SWMCinci SWMCinci is offline
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Originally Posted by irish_buffalo View Post
In a district in which a dead Pub would get voted in over a Dem and he ALMOST won. For a Dem he makes sense. Does not jump on every BS cause.
With $70M (2:1 funding advantage), a fawning press, a jacked-up liberal electorate, and celebrities invading Texas to promote his candidacy like so many Honduran refugees - he lost.
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  #60  
Old 11-15-18, 07:45 AM
Stirred not Shaken Stirred not Shaken is offline
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Originally Posted by Deep View Post
John Kasich in 2020?
He or someone like him is the GOP's only chance.
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