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  #1  
Old 01-15-18, 11:03 AM
Crusaders Crusaders is offline
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AFC Championship: #3 Jacksonville at #1 New England

I think Jacksonville's defense is going to be very tough for the Pats. It's the type of defense that has frustrated them for the past 17 years but on steroids. But I also expect Jacksonville to experience a rude awakening of what it's like to play NE; they're going to get called for every little thing AND things that didn't even happen. That late little throw down of Ben they got away with yesterday? That's 15 yards if done to Brady.

Offensively, it will come down to Bortles. He can't make any mistakes. If he throws a pick or misses some open scoring opportunities, they'll lose. Plain and simple. He's going to have to make good use of use scrambling ability, which I think is a seriously underrated attribute of his. He is fast and agile for a guy his size.

I expect New England will load the box and spy the backfield. The bulk of the Jags production takes place within 8 yards of the line because Bortles simply lacks consistency going deeper. The delayed routes out of backfield the Jags used that killed Pittsburgh are not likely going to work. So I see the Pats eanting to make Bortles have to beat them with medium range passing, which means a higher likelihood of picks. I expect Marrone will want to have Bortles rolling out to give him a better shot (he's more accurate on the move) and to have the throw away option available.

I'm kind of expecting a low scoring game here. 17-9 Pats.
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  #2  
Old 01-16-18, 10:09 AM
Taco MacArthur Taco MacArthur is offline
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I like the Jags story, how awful they've been the last 4 or 5 years an turned it around. And I like Bortles. But with Ramsey promising a Super Bowl appearance after the Steelers game, I can't help but wish they lose. Never look ahead, especially in the NFL. Even if he was saying it to hype the fans.
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Old 01-16-18, 10:16 AM
Neopolitan Neopolitan is offline
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Jacksonville gave up 42 points to Pittsburgh. It's really tough to imagine NE only scoring 17 points unless there's some sort of crazy weather situation.
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  #4  
Old 01-16-18, 10:41 AM
Crusaders Crusaders is offline
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The Steelers scored 21 points off desperation deep balls and 7 more in garbage time on Sunday. That was the least impressive 42 points I’ve ever seen.

The Jags’ defense is also a matchup problem for NE as a 4-3 team that is very fast and runs a lot of man coverage. I’m expecting the Jags to hit Brady a lot and take away Cooks and Hogan completely. That means it will be up the running game, the 3-4 WRs, and Gronk. I just don’t see a lot of offense coming.
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  #5  
Old 01-16-18, 11:07 AM
adselder09 adselder09 is offline
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24-10 Pats.

Slow start in 1st Qtr. Tight game at half 10-7, Pats come out and break it open in the 3rd Qtr with two TDs. Bortles throws at least 2 INTs.
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  #6  
Old 01-16-18, 11:15 AM
Neopolitan Neopolitan is offline
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Jacksonville also gave up 44 points to San Fran in their last meaningful regular season game.

Vance McDonald torched them for 10 catches and 112 yds. What is Gronk going to do?
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  #7  
Old 01-16-18, 11:20 AM
Crusaders Crusaders is offline
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Jacksonville had already locked up the South before that game. You can say it was "meaningful" but I don't think they thought the Steelers were going to lose to Houston or Cleveland. I think the last regular season game they actually showed up for was Houston.

The Jags also had to account for Antonio Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Martavis Bryant, and Le'Veon Bell.

The Steelers got by on superior man-to-man talent. The only guy the Pats have who can beat the Jags with his talent is Gronk (I don't think Cooks is going to do much of anything against Ramsey or Bouye), so they'll more than likely win via scheme.

Maybe Gronk will have 12 catches for 170 yards and a couple TDs. It wouldn't be surprising. But I don't think anyone else will stand out.

Last edited by Crusaders; 01-16-18 at 11:50 AM..
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  #8  
Old 01-16-18, 12:01 PM
Neopolitan Neopolitan is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Crusaders View Post
Jacksonville had already locked up the South before that game. You can say it was "meaningful" but I don't think they thought the Steelers were going to lose to Houston or Cleveland. I think the last regular season game they actually showed up for was Houston.
They played all their starters. Jimmy G shredded them. But Brady & Belichik will only manage 17 points?

We'll see obviously, but barring some sort of crazy weather, it doesn't seem realistic that they hold the Pats to 17 or fewer.
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  #9  
Old 01-16-18, 12:05 PM
Crusaders Crusaders is offline
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Doesn't matter if the starters played. Even starters look past the regular season once there's nothing left to play for. If they played SF now, I firmly believe the game would have a completely different outcome.

You're basically ignoring the Patriots history against this sort of defense. They have really never excelled against it. It's basically the same sort of team Coughlin brought in with the Giants.
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  #10  
Old 01-16-18, 12:22 PM
Neopolitan Neopolitan is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Crusaders View Post
If they played SF now, I firmly believe the game would have a completely different outcome.
Okay

Quote:
You're basically ignoring the Patriots history against this sort of defense.
I'm not sure there's much value in a game from 10 years ago in determining what will happen this week.

If you're really convinced the Jaguars are going to hold the Patriots to one or two TD's, I'd highly advise taking them getting 9.5 points.
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  #11  
Old 01-16-18, 12:49 PM
Crusaders Crusaders is offline
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There's tons of value because it's about scheme. The Patriots have a long history of struggling against 4-3 teams who can create pressure with their front four and have strong secondaries. This is Jacksonville.
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  #12  
Old 01-16-18, 01:13 PM
Neopolitan Neopolitan is offline
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Are you going to be laying big money on Jags +9.5?
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  #13  
Old 01-16-18, 01:35 PM
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eastside_purple eastside_purple is offline
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I might throw some money at Jacksonville at +9.5, not big money.
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  #14  
Old 01-16-18, 02:10 PM
Neopolitan Neopolitan is offline
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Not going to personally bet the 9.5 spread for either team, if for no other reason than the weather could be nuts in Foxboro and lead to a weird game.

Plus, it seems like the NFL's destiny to have a Minnesota-Jacksonville Super Bowl cap off their year from hell.

I do have the Pats money line in a few parlays though.
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  #15  
Old 01-16-18, 02:31 PM
Username1 Username1 is offline
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I see NE winning. Pitt just put 40 pts+ on the jags. Would like to see Minn vs Ne in the SB. I will be rooting for Minn
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  #16  
Old 01-16-18, 02:34 PM
Username1 Username1 is offline
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35-28 pats
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  #17  
Old 01-17-18, 09:53 AM
Michael Bluth Michael Bluth is offline
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Usually when Vegas sets a line that doesn't seem to make sense, they know what they're doing. I'd either go with New England or not touch it
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  #18  
Old 01-17-18, 11:07 AM
joesports joesports is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Michael Bluth View Post
Usually when Vegas sets a line that doesn't seem to make sense, they know what they're doing. I'd either go with New England or not touch it
With out a line like that would anyone bet on Jacksonville?... Vegas wants equal or near equal money on both teams ... must make a line that encourages people to bet on Jacksonville ... that way they money no matter what happens (with the vig)
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  #19  
Old 01-18-18, 05:02 PM
Crusaders Crusaders is offline
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Brady apparently dislocated a finger at practice today.
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  #20  
Old 01-18-18, 09:42 PM
cabezadecaballo cabezadecaballo is offline
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dislocated ?


It's his thumb, btw.
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  #21  
Old 01-18-18, 09:45 PM
cabezadecaballo cabezadecaballo is offline
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Under is 46, down from 47. I'm taking it.
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  #22  
Old 01-18-18, 09:47 PM
cabezadecaballo cabezadecaballo is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Username1 View Post
35-28 pats
How many defensive TDs in there ?

One-sided offenses struggle against NE. How many TDs are you counting on Bortles for ?
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  #23  
Old 01-19-18, 08:43 AM
Bballer05 Bballer05 is offline
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Brady apparently dislocated a finger at practice today.
Harrison accidentally ran into him in a drill. all part of the plan (conspiracy) except that Steelers didn't do their part in beating Jax.

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  #24  
Old 01-19-18, 11:47 AM
nflstats nflstats is offline
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Gregory Games predicting the Jaguars will beat the Patriots, 34-10. Upset special. The Jaguar's Cornerbacks (CBs), Bouye and Ramsey, will shut down the Patriots Passing attack. Check out this replay at www.thegregorygamecompany.com/replays
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  #25  
Old 01-21-18, 03:07 PM
Username1 Username1 is offline
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Would love to NE get embarrassed. But it won't happen. As long as they lose in the SB it's all good.
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  #26  
Old 01-21-18, 03:16 PM
Crusaders Crusaders is offline
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Pats looking for WR-LB mismatches. I expect the Jags will adjust. Good stop on the drive
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  #27  
Old 01-21-18, 04:23 PM
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eastside_purple eastside_purple is offline
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Jags lucky they didn’t get a penalty slamming the runner down 5 yards into the end zone.
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  #28  
Old 01-21-18, 04:47 PM
Crusaders Crusaders is offline
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Weak PI call. I'm sure the Jags are fine trading 15 yards for Gronk being out the entire 2nd half.
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  #29  
Old 01-21-18, 04:48 PM
Crusaders Crusaders is offline
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Hell of a kick
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  #30  
Old 01-21-18, 05:01 PM
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Great defensive series for NE.
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