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  #31  
Old 05-01-18, 07:43 AM
mathking mathking is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr. Slippery View Post
See's teams were always in contention for team trophies (4th or better all 4 of his years), so he had the additional duty of racing for team points, but hey, if it makes you feel good to continue casting aspersions on guys who successfully completed distance doubles at state, go for it.
Agreed. Who are any of us to throw shade because a guy didn't run as fast as we wanted them to in order to increase the chance for a win, or a double win? As the coach for one of Horter's closest competitors in the 1600, I pay very close attention to the field. Doubling in either the 1600/800 or 1600/3200 is not going to be easy this year. There are a lot of good athletes. What if Bons or Jha drops the 1600 for the 800? Neither has run very many fresh 800s but they both have run 4x800 splits that show they can run with Horter fresh in the 800. It would be hard to beat one of them and Szalay and all the other talented 1600 kids then come back to beat the other one running fresh in the 800 along with Cousino, Miller, McGill, King and all the other good 800 kids. Or if he runs a hard 1600 and tries to come back to beat Scrape and Payne. And Conant Smith will likely be in at least one of those races.

I am not saying he can't or won't double. He is one of the best HS distance runners I have seen. I just don't think it would pay to try to run sub 4:00 at the state meet (particularly given that it's not actually a mile so you don't even get the cachet of a sub 4 mile) if he is going to attempt a double. There are a lot of really talented distance kids in D1 this year. It will not be a year where Horter can just use whatever strategy he wants and waltz to a win.
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  #32  
Old 05-01-18, 09:13 AM
ccrunner609 ccrunner609 is offline
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Come on guys.....winning a double or breaking 4 In HS....sub four and one win is puts you in rare company nationally.
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  #33  
Old 05-01-18, 09:41 AM
Newton's Third Newton's Third is offline
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Breaking 4 minutes for a mile is much tougher than many of you are giving it credit. There is a reason that only a few high school runners have ever achieved it in the history of track. The runners best time is a maxed out effort or near that prior to finding several more seconds. It is not a matter of just focusing or shooting for it mentally. Nationally there are several runners each year who appear to be a shoo-in for breaking 4 minutes yet never do so. It is very tough. If Horter or anyone else is able to achieve this it is a tremendous effort with probably some luck of the right race situation and strategy involved. It is not simply going for it and most guys are much farther from it than many of you believe.
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  #34  
Old 05-01-18, 09:54 AM
EuclidandViren EuclidandViren is offline
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Originally Posted by mathking View Post
I don't see an attempt to run sub 4:00. I think he will try to win. He just isn't far enough ahead of the rest of the field that the risk of trying to run sub 4:00 is worth it. As I said, winning may require a sub 4:05 effort, depending on who runs the 1600.
100% agree. Every single runner that has broken 4:00 in previous history has had many low 4:00 attempts.

Horter's PR 4:07.52 in the 1600 and 4:08.03 in the mile are awesome efforts.

BUT to expect to drop 8+ seconds in the mile is ridiculous at this point. 8 seconds at that level is very, very, very hard to do without the best situation.

Alan Webb was able to drop 8 seconds but he was in a professional field. And he ran 4:00 flat 5 times in previous races.

I love Horter and his ability. But to even think he has a chance to break 4:00 is ridiculous and absurd.

I would put Horter breaking 4:00 with Olivia Howell going from 4:43 in the 1600 to dropping to 4:35 or even 4:30 in the mile. Which is ridiculous if you really think about it.

Olivia is also a very talented runner. I would put it more on the level of 4:30 in the room for improvement category. But in the category of greatness I would say a boy breaking 4:00 is like a girl breaking 4:35.

Now if Horter was to race the Mile after state on the professional circuit (barring that he could find a true mile somewhere) I think he could possibly do it in mid to late July if he runs a couple of 4:02 or 4:01 efforts. But that is also a BIG stretch.
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  #35  
Old 05-01-18, 09:59 AM
mathking mathking is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Newton's Third View Post
Breaking 4 minutes for a mile is much tougher than many of you are giving it credit. There is a reason that only a few high school runners have ever achieved it in the history of track. The runners best time is a maxed out effort or near that prior to finding several more seconds. It is not a matter of just focusing or shooting for it mentally. Nationally there are several runners each year who appear to be a shoo-in for breaking 4 minutes yet never do so. It is very tough. If Horter or anyone else is able to achieve this it is a tremendous effort with probably some luck of the right race situation and strategy involved. It is not simply going for it and most guys are much farther from it than many of you believe.
Very well said. If Horter (or anyone else in Ohio) breaks 4:00 this year it is more likely to come at a post-state meet competition, where they can focus on that task and have lots of competition to push them on. Breaking 4:00 not only requires the talent, it requires the right conditions and the right race. And it generally also requires you not to focus on winning the race because you can't get wrapped up in what other people are running.
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  #36  
Old 05-01-18, 10:09 AM
JAVMAN83 JAVMAN83 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EuclidandViren View Post
100% agree. Every single runner that has broken 4:00 in previous history has had many low 4:00 attempts.

Horter's PR 4:07.52 in the 1600 and 4:08.03 in the mile are awesome efforts.

BUT to expect to drop 8+ seconds in the mile is ridiculous at this point. 8 seconds at that level is very, very, very hard to do without the best situation.

Alan Webb was able to drop 8 seconds but he was in a professional field. And he ran 4:00 flat 5 times in previous races.

I love Horter and his ability. But to even think he has a chance to break 4:00 is ridiculous and absurd.

I would put Horter breaking 4:00 with Olivia Howell going from 4:43 in the 1600 to dropping to 4:35 or even 4:30 in the mile. Which is ridiculous if you really think about it.

Olivia is also a very talented runner. I would put it more on the level of 4:30 in the room for improvement category. But in the category of greatness I would say a boy breaking 4:00 is like a girl breaking 4:35.

Now if Horter was to race the Mile after state on the professional circuit (barring that he could find a true mile somewhere) I think he could possibly do it in mid to late July if he runs a couple of 4:02 or 4:01 efforts. But that is also a BIG stretch.
Don't forget, Webb had ALREADY gone sub-4 indoors that year, so his drop was more like 6-1/2 seconds, if that. He'd also just come off of a 1:47.7 800m at his state meet, so he had the speed to boot.
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  #37  
Old 05-01-18, 10:46 AM
ccrunner609 ccrunner609 is offline
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Other thread has Horter going for it at Mason. Hope he doesnt read this thread and just decide to double. You know cause winning a double is what people will remember
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  #38  
Old 05-01-18, 10:49 AM
claynation claynation is offline
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For those of you saying the state 1600m race could be tactical ... clearly you haven't paid much attention to Dustin Horter's career. He has run many races, and none of them have ever been tactical, sit-and-kick affairs. He will go to the front immediately and push the pace.

At the state meet, Dustin will attempt to break Bob Kennedy's record, and he probably will. If I were him, I would then try to win the 800, as that field looks relatively weak right now. However, that could change if Jha, Bons, Miller, Szalay et al. opt to run it fresh. Malachi McGill has yet to show the improvement one would have expected him to make from his freshman to sophomore year, and Cousino has a history of running better at indoor state than outdoor state.

Nevertheless, I also believe Horter could successfully pull off the 1600/3200 double. While he chose not to attempt it last year, I hope he does this year; he is obviously at a different level than everyone else in the state.
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  #39  
Old 05-01-18, 11:29 AM
mathking mathking is offline
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Originally Posted by claynation View Post
For those of you saying the state 1600m race could be tactical ... clearly you haven't paid much attention to Dustin Horter's career. He has run many races, and none of them have ever been tactical, sit-and-kick affairs. He will go to the front immediately and push the pace.

At the state meet, Dustin will attempt to break Bob Kennedy's record, and he probably will. If I were him, I would then try to win the 800, as that field looks relatively weak right now. However, that could change if Jha, Bons, Miller, Szalay et al. opt to run it fresh. Malachi McGill has yet to show the improvement one would have expected him to make from his freshman to sophomore year, and Cousino has a history of running better at indoor state than outdoor state.

Nevertheless, I also believe Horter could successfully pull off the 1600/3200 double. While he chose not to attempt it last year, I hope he does this year; he is obviously at a different level than everyone else in the state.

I don't recall anyone saying it would be a tactical race if by tactical you mean taking it out slow. I have watched a lot of Horter's races and I don't anticipate that at all. My bet is that he goes at very strong and tries to gap the field in the first 400-600 meters. Then settles in to a somewhat slower pace and hammers the last lap. That has been is style in most of the races I have seen. He does it very well. He makes opponents feel that can't keep up and has a finish that allows him to out kick other athletes most of the time. When I have seen him lose, it has been because his legs were dead at the end of the race.

There is a difference between running to win and running to break 4:00. Here are the lap splits of the top four returnees from last year:

Horter: 59.84 - 1:04.06 - 1:04.95 - 59.64 (4:08.38)

Jha: 1:01.14 - 1:04.87 - 1:03.88 - 59.22 (4:09.09)

Bons: 1:01.41 - 1:05.17 - 1:04.17 - 59.16 (4:09.89)

Szalay: 1:01.53 - 1:05.39 - 1:03.77 - 1:00.68 (4:11.35)

To go sub 4:00 Horter needs basically needs to chop 4 seconds from each of the middle two laps. I am actually pretty confident he could run a sub 3:00 1200 (and I know at least one other athlete in the potential field can) but trying to hold that pace for another lap is very hard. And very likely to result in a significant drop in pace. Last year when he was caught on the final lap he had enough left to surge back to the front for the win. If he goes out in 1:59 and can't sustain the pace, he won't have that reserve.

But back to the idea that trying to win both races is somehow intrinsically a lesser achievement that people won't remember, what if he tries for a sub 4:00, fails and loses. Then it's likely he won't be able to recover to win another race either. In any event, it is his and his coach's choice, not ours. I for one think anyone who could pull off a double win against the competition this year deserves accolades for it.
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  #40  
Old 05-01-18, 11:40 AM
JAVMAN83 JAVMAN83 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mathking View Post
I don't recall anyone saying it would be a tactical race if by tactical you mean taking it out slow. I have watched a lot of Horter's races and I don't anticipate that at all. My bet is that he goes at very strong and tries to gap the field in the first 400-600 meters. Then settles in to a somewhat slower pace and hammers the last lap. That has been is style in most of the races I have seen. He does it very well. He makes opponents feel that can't keep up and has a finish that allows him to out kick other athletes most of the time. When I have seen him lose, it has been because his legs were dead at the end of the race.

There is a difference between running to win and running to break 4:00. Here are the lap splits of the top four returnees from last year:

Horter: 59.84 - 1:04.06 - 1:04.95 - 59.64 (4:08.38)

Jha: 1:01.14 - 1:04.87 - 1:03.88 - 59.22 (4:09.09)

Bons: 1:01.41 - 1:05.17 - 1:04.17 - 59.16 (4:09.89)

Szalay: 1:01.53 - 1:05.39 - 1:03.77 - 1:00.68 (4:11.35)

To go sub 4:00 Horter needs basically needs to chop 4 seconds from each of the middle two laps. I am actually pretty confident he could run a sub 3:00 1200 (and I know at least one other athlete in the potential field can) but trying to hold that pace for another lap is very hard. And very likely to result in a significant drop in pace. Last year when he was caught on the final lap he had enough left to surge back to the front for the win. If he goes out in 1:59 and can't sustain the pace, he won't have that reserve.

But back to the idea that trying to win both races is somehow intrinsically a lesser achievement that people won't remember, what if he tries for a sub 4:00, fails and loses. Then it's likely he won't be able to recover to win another race either. In any event, it is his and his coach's choice, not ours. I for one think anyone who could pull off a double win against the competition this year deserves accolades for it.
I understand the math, but disagree. Better would be that Horter reins in that first lap to a 61.5-62.0 go around, come thru the 800 at 2:02-2:03, then go sub 1:57 on his last 800m. Energy management is the key for HS kids attempting to go sub-4, particularly when its basically a solo attempt. Alan Webb was 3 seconds faster than Horter (Horter may reduce this difference further) in HS, and split 58.0, 1:57.7 (59.7), and 2:58.4 (60.7), then finished with a 55.0 last lap in his record. That was made while trailing near the back of the pack for the first few laps, paying good attention to energy management.

If he runs at Mason, that would be the most likely, and most intelligent place to attempt it. Hopefully, the weather () will be cooperative.
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  #41  
Old 05-01-18, 12:21 PM
mathking mathking is offline
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Originally Posted by JAVMAN83 View Post
I understand the math, but disagree. Better would be that Horter reins in that first lap to a 61.5-62.0 go around, come thru the 800 at 2:02-2:03, then go sub 1:57 on his last 800m. Energy management is the key for HS kids attempting to go sub-4, particularly when its basically a solo attempt. Alan Webb was 3 seconds faster than Horter (Horter may reduce this difference further) in HS, and split 58.0, 1:57.7 (59.7), and 2:58.4 (60.7), then finished with a 55.0 last lap in his record. That was made while trailing near the back of the pack for the first few laps, paying good attention to energy management.

If he runs at Mason, that would be the most likely, and most intelligent place to attempt it. Hopefully, the weather () will be cooperative.
I almost agree about the best way to attempt the sub 4:00. I say almost because the first lap should be faster if you want to take advantage of the alactic energy system with the most efficiency. But that would mean Horter changing his main running style, which I don't see happening. He has been very successful by being pretty ruthless in pace setting at the start of races.

I will be at Mason, so I hope there are great conditions and a fast race. I would like to get the PR goals out of the way before the post season, so we can concentrate on the place goals.
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  #42  
Old 05-01-18, 04:43 PM
said_aouita said_aouita is offline
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Talking

Quote:
Originally Posted by ccrunner609 View Post
As for Horter, if he goes for it at state like this (especially going for a sub 4 mile which I believe he is after) he will be the greatest track athlete ever in the state of Ohio.
.
Umm, no.

Quote:
Originally Posted by mathking View Post
As for that making him the greatest track athlete ever in the state? No.
cc gets a little excited, sometimes. I think he was posting on yappi while watching the latest Trump rally on Faux News.

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  #43  
Old 05-01-18, 06:49 PM
JAVMAN83 JAVMAN83 is offline
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Originally Posted by said_aouita View Post
Umm, no.



cc gets a little excited, sometimes. I think he was posting on yappi while watching the latest Trump rally on Faux News.

No need to bring politics into this discussion Many of us have differing opinions, and there are certainly a whole host of other sites to duke-it-out on those issues. As they say, opinions are like *(@()!*$, and everyone has them.

I do agree with your disagreement with the contention by CC that a sub-4 & 16/32 double at State would make him the G.O.A.T. runner in Ohio HS history. There's a long list of candidates for that title, and comparing eras & events to one another is a fruitless task, IMHO. I can cite chapter & verse on athletes in different eras and their particular greatness, but let's just agree that if Horter pulled off a sub-4 16/32 double at State, it would be STUPENDOUS!
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  #44  
Old 05-01-18, 08:42 PM
Hammerdrill Hammerdrill is offline
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Greatest ever? Doesn't Chris Nelloms hold 3 state records? from about 30 years ago?
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  #45  
Old 05-01-18, 09:18 PM
psycho_dad psycho_dad is offline
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Lancermania, Yes.
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  #46  
Old 05-01-18, 09:35 PM
psycho_dad psycho_dad is offline
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Is it better to finish as a state champion in the 1600 at 3:59.99 or 4:10.00?

Is it better to finish as state champion in the 1600, or 4th in the 1600, 4th in the 800 and 8th in the 3200?

Or is 3rd in the 1600, and 3rd in the 3200 better?
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  #47  
Old 05-02-18, 12:49 AM
JAVMAN83 JAVMAN83 is offline
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Originally Posted by Hammerdrill View Post
Greatest ever? Doesn't Chris Nelloms hold 3 state records? from about 30 years ago?
Yes...Nelloms still holds the 110mH, 200m, and 400m records. He may also co-hold the 2-man long jump relay (http://personal.bgsu.edu/~jsquire/hsodboyslist.htm#LJR) and possibly other relay marks.

110mH - 13.30 - Division I Region IV at Welcome Stadium, 5/26/90
It was a National Federation record at the time. Conditions were calm, but damp as it had just rained and the track was partially wet and in that post-shower cooling off period as I remember it. Saw it from the backstretch at Welcome. I also witnessed his 46.1 MT 400m SEMI-FINAL two days before that from the backstretch....people don't usually know this, but Nelloms had a recorded stride frequency of 5.02 strides/second at his prime. One of the few to break 5.

200m - 20.47 - State Meet - 6/2/1990

400m - 45.59 - State Meet - 6/2/1990. Later ran 45.36 that summer
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