Iv'e coached at both a big and a small school, here comes the truth:
If you are a STUD, doesn't matter what size school you go to. Numbers mean d1 schools will have these more often than smaller schools, but small school kids get recruited.
It's when you're almost a stud when it gets different. If you're marginal, and the college didn't get the first kid they wanted, the big schools have an advantage. If college coaches are unsure, they often take the kid from the bigger school because they've seen him against better competition (athletically), (or because the staff is lazy...yes that happens).
Size of your school kinda becomes the tiebreaker, and alot of kids are tied because there really is no difference between 17-18 year olds from big or small schools.
The school I coach at now (d5) currently has a Big10 lineman who is a 3 year starter and holds most of his colleges weightroom records. We get a kid like that every 7-8 years, d1 schools 4 times our size get one every other year. (Unless they move there...some programs recruit themselves. Not accusing anyone of anything wrong, but in some cities all the good kids move to a few schools. That will skew the numbers up for them)