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  #1  
Old 06-19-17, 09:38 PM
billrodgers billrodgers is offline
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Division cutoff numbers for track 2018

anyone have forecast of what the cutoff numbers may look like?
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  #2  
Old 06-20-17, 06:34 AM
CoventryTrackXCguy CoventryTrackXCguy is offline
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300 give or take.

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  #3  
Old 06-21-17, 10:21 AM
CC Track Fan CC Track Fan is offline
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Originally Posted by CoventryTrackXCguy View Post
300 give or take.

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I agree as long as a similar number of teams entered 9 at districts as two years ago the cut-off for D1 boys will be 300 or 301. Either number will move Lexington to D1 as I believe they are the biggest track team on the boarder line.
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  #4  
Old 06-21-17, 10:32 AM
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I went through 2 years ago and counted all the teams that had 9 kids compete at districts. I might do that again, but it is not high on my list of priorities right now.
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  #5  
Old 06-21-17, 02:11 PM
CoventryTrackXCguy CoventryTrackXCguy is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CC Track Fan View Post
I agree as long as a similar number of teams entered 9 at districts as two years ago the cut-off for D1 boys will be 300 or 301. Either number will move Lexington to D1 as I believe they are the biggest track team on the boarder line.
Coventry at 296 is in an incredibly dicey situation, but my guess is we squeak out d2, at lest for the next couple years. I hope we stay in d2, theres no way Coventry ever will have the kind of depth necessary to compete with the likes of Glen Oak, and Canton Mckinnly on a yearly basis. This past season, we made it all the way to a 6th place finish at regionals with a sub 44 in the 4 by 100, and we had to substitute in our 5 and 6th fastest runners, because of injuries to our 3rd and 4th. impressive show of depth, but theres no way we can put that kind of depth year in year out across all 17 events.
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  #6  
Old 06-21-17, 07:02 PM
southernman southernman is offline
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Division Enrollment Schools
I 293 or more 228
II 151-292 229
III 150 or less 228
Total Teams 685
This was the last year numbers. Will they go up or down? Stay the same?
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  #7  
Old 06-21-17, 08:18 PM
cvctrackfan cvctrackfan is offline
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Our Boys are at 150....I'm wishing for 151 and Below for D3

Last edited by cvctrackfan; 06-21-17 at 10:10 PM..
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  #8  
Old 06-21-17, 09:11 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by southernman View Post
Division Enrollment Schools
I 293 or more 228
II 151-292 229
III 150 or less 228
Total Teams 685
This was the last year numbers. Will they go up or down? Stay the same?
If population trends continue, the numbers should go down.

I already have the enrollment numbers in an Excel file. What I don't know is which schools all had teams and which ones didn't.

Having stated that, if I just look at all schools that have at least 20 boys enrolled (796 in all) with no consideration for which ones counted as a track team this past spring, the top third ends up being 277 and above, the middle third is 142 to 276, and the bottom third is 141 to 20.

However, the population trends also could make the numbers go up. Why, you ask? Well, we have a large number of schools that are becoming ridiculously small. More smaller schools means a greater possibility that more schools didn't have enough bodies to be counted as teams. Less teams on the low end pulls some of the smaller DII schools down to DIII and pulls some of the smaller DI schools down to DII. When smaller schools get pulled down a division, the cut-off ends up being higher.

I will start to look at this further in the coming days by examining the district meet results to see how many smaller schools actually fielded "teams." There will be some larger schools that may not have fielded "teams" (especially on the girls' side regarding some urban public schools), but it's safe to assume that most schools with more than 125 boys or girls fielded a "team" if they offer the sport at all.
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  #9  
Old 06-21-17, 09:39 PM
CC Track Fan CC Track Fan is offline
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The way I came up with 300 is two years ago it took 245 total schools to get 228 track teams in D1. Count down 245 schools this year and that get enrollment of 300.

By the way there are 7174 more boys in the counts this year than there was 2 years ago so enrollment is actual up. Girls up 6492. I got to believe that is the way the count not that enrollment is actual up but I don't know.
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  #10  
Old 06-30-17, 06:16 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CC Track Fan View Post
The way I came up with 300 is two years ago it took 245 total schools to get 228 track teams in D1. Count down 245 schools this year and that get enrollment of 300.

By the way there are 7174 more boys in the counts this year than there was 2 years ago so enrollment is actual up. Girls up 6492. I got to believe that is the way the count not that enrollment is actual up but I don't know.
I forget if they included home school and charter school kids in the count for this cycle or if that idea never materialized after it was shot down right before they did the divisional breakdowns 2 years ago.


On to the topic at hand...

I wasted many hours of my life and combed all boys district results to count up how many schools had 9 different boys entered at the district level. The only district that was tricky was DIII Newcomerstown because the results do not include prelims, so there was no perfect way to identify everyone who was entered. For the teams in that district for which I couldn't find 9, I used their league meet results, so that creates an additional margin for error here.

I arrived at a total of 686 schools that had at least 9 different boys entered for districts. I forgot to keep track of this, but I think there were around 25 schools that had 8 entrants. I believe there were 685 boys teams counted during the previous 2 year cycle.

Cut-offs are tricky because of having multiple teams with the same number of boys on either side of the cut line. If my work is at all accurate, my best guess is this:

DI: 298 and up - 230 teams
DII: 154 to 297 - 228 teams
DIII: 153 and down - 228 teams

10 teams right above the DI/DII cut line:
Thornville Sheridan 299
Tallmadge 299
Niles McKinley 299
Celina 300
Rocky River 300
Lexington 301
Norton 301
Bay Village Bay 302
Cincinnati Woodward 307
Medina Buckeye 307

10 teams right below the DI/DII cut line:
Lodi Cloverleaf 297
Akron Coventry 296
Tipp City Tippecanoe 296
Columbus Bishop Watterson 294
Vincent Warren 294
Monroe 291
Elida 290
Jackson (The one in SE Ohio) - 289
New Richmond - 287
Delaware Buckeye Valley - 286

10 teams right above the DII/DIII cut line:
Cincinnati Summit Country Day 154
Liberty Center 154
Newton Falls 154
Hanoverton United 154
Ironton 155
Elyria Catholic 155
Coldwater 156
Apple Creek Waynedale 156
Springfield Greenon 157
Leavittsburg LaBrae 158

10 teams right below the DII/DIII cut line:
Fredericktown 153
West Jefferson 153
Norwayne 153
Columbiana Crestview 153
Atwater Waterloo 153
Columbus Academy 152
Mount Gilead 152
Kirtland 152
Middlefield Cardinal 152
Bloomdale Elmwod 152
Minford 152
Frankfort Adena 152

If they opted to go with 300 as the DI cut line, that would put 227 teams in DI. The difficulty then becomes where to put the DII/DIII cut line due to the large number of schools that are tied at 154. Include 154 as part of DII, and you have 231 schools in DII and 228 in DIII. Cut it at 155, and you have 227 schools in DII and 232 in DIII. Honestly, I could live with that if it keeps teams south of 300 boys out of DI.

Incidentally, there is no way I'm going through all the districts for the girls. My school is solidly in DIII for both genders, so where the cut lines fall is not a big deal to me; especially since the next track season is slightly more than 8 flipping months away. That said, CC Track Fan did such a fine job estimating where the boys DI cut line would fall that he/she probably has some idea where the girls cut lines would fall.

Last edited by Mr. Slippery; 06-30-17 at 09:39 PM..
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  #11  
Old 06-30-17, 08:01 PM
cvctrackfan cvctrackfan is offline
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I, like your numbers Mr. Slippery .sighhhhhhh.........those D2 schools have been slapping us around the last two years.......
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  #12  
Old 06-30-17, 09:45 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cvctrackfan View Post
I, like your numbers Mr. Slippery .sighhhhhhh.........those D2 schools have been slapping us around the last two years.......
I wouldn't take my numbers as gospel, but I would say that your guys shouldn't have to worry about the possibility of remaining in DII. There's a ton of teams sitting between 150 and my projected cut line, so even if I missed by a school or two, it would take some really shady math by the OHSAA to keep your crew in DII.
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  #13  
Old 06-30-17, 11:25 PM
CoventryTrackXCguy CoventryTrackXCguy is offline
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cvctrackfan, Gilmour Academy is probably fine. Im the one thats rightfully scared to death right now lol. We are right under the knife rn.

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  #14  
Old 06-30-17, 11:29 PM
CoventryTrackXCguy CoventryTrackXCguy is offline
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The sad part is half our high school is open enrolled so we could cut back if we wanted to.

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  #15  
Old 07-01-17, 05:30 AM
cvctrackfan cvctrackfan is offline
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Coventry cutting open enrollment is a difficult thing to do for school systems. The money generated per student is in the thousands.
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  #16  
Old 07-01-17, 08:41 AM
CoventryTrackXCguy CoventryTrackXCguy is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cvctrackfan View Post
Coventry cutting open enrollment is a difficult thing to do for school systems. The money generated per student is in the thousands.
Good point.

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Last edited by CoventryTrackXCguy; 07-01-17 at 11:14 AM..
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