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  #1351  
Old 06-12-19, 05:27 PM
fish82 fish82 is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Harrycrane View Post
And economic cycles ron in two year cycles? Ok .because you give all credit for a ten year recovery to Trump who bankrupted most of his own businesses at one point or another doesnít mean most Americans do . Must donít find him to be the financial wizard you and your kind do. They know his business record know how cycles work and see the obvious fanatical effort to shield anyone from seeing his financials, heís an economic genius yet he canít obtain a bank loan in the country where he is basically the CEO ? Yes bumpkins think him to be King Midas even as they donít benefit themselves from the strong economy .

Good luck to Trump winning the same states he barely won ( 1 percent) ( Mich ,Penn, Wisconsin) Another inside straight?
He only needs to hold one of them.
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  #1352  
Old 06-12-19, 06:13 PM
BlueJayFan BlueJayFan is offline
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Originally Posted by fish82 View Post
He only needs to hold one of them.
He also needs to worry about Arizona IMO. It's going to be closer there than Ohio (and maybe Florida)

I think Trump loses PA (by a lot) & MI (by less). WI is the tossup of the Rust Belt
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  #1353  
Old 06-12-19, 06:32 PM
zeeman zeeman is offline
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Originally Posted by BlueJayFan View Post
He also needs to worry about Arizona IMO. It's going to be closer there than Ohio (and maybe Florida)

I think Trump loses PA (by a lot) & MI (by less). WI is the tossup of the Rust Belt
If the economy stays strong he wins, if not Biden will. Itís pretty simple really
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  #1354  
Old 06-12-19, 07:10 PM
fish82 fish82 is online now
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Originally Posted by BlueJayFan View Post
He also needs to worry about Arizona IMO. It's going to be closer there than Ohio (and maybe Florida)

I think Trump loses PA (by a lot) & MI (by less). WI is the tossup of the Rust Belt
My buddy in PA (a pretty well connected dem ward boss) says Trump is as popular as ever west of Bucks County. If he loses, I doubt it'll be by a lot.
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  #1355  
Old 06-12-19, 07:17 PM
BlueJayFan BlueJayFan is offline
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Originally Posted by zeeman View Post
If the economy stays strong he wins, if not Biden will. Itís pretty simple really
I'm not so sure Biden will win the nomination anymore. His performance at the first debate will tell a lot.
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  #1356  
Old 06-12-19, 07:18 PM
BlueJayFan BlueJayFan is offline
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Also, some polls came out that show Warren ahead of Sanders. They may be outliers, but her campaign is really surging right now.

Bernie HQ must be fuming
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  #1357  
Old 06-12-19, 07:20 PM
cabezadecaballo cabezadecaballo is offline
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Originally Posted by SWMCinci View Post
FYP - Biden had a shot if he'd have remained the adult in the room. But instead of staying there he folded faster than Superman on laundry day. He surrendered his Catholic values with the about face on the Hyde Amendment. At 76, he's willing to allow a former actress to dictate policy rather than his decades of experience and apparently thought out value system. He abandoned his centrist stance and now he's only slightly to the right of Bernie. He's making Dukakis look like a decisive leader.
I think you have it right here. They are going to Primary Uncle Joe. Heíll have enough video to sink him with any swing voters he needs to win a general election.

You are somewhat right about the Hildabeast, in that sheíd be pleased to see the Dem candidate fail, but she isnít coming to the rescue herself. She sees liíl Chelsea as the first female POTUS.
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  #1358  
Old 06-12-19, 07:22 PM
Stirred not Shaken Stirred not Shaken is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zeeman View Post
If the economy stays strong he wins, if not Biden will. Itís pretty simple really
Nah, Trump loses regardless.
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  #1359  
Old 06-12-19, 07:55 PM
zeeman zeeman is offline
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Originally Posted by Stirred not Shaken View Post
Nah, Trump loses regardless.
So said millions in 2016
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  #1360  
Old 06-12-19, 08:35 PM
SWMCinci SWMCinci is offline
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Originally Posted by BlueJayFan View Post
He also needs to worry about Arizona IMO. It's going to be closer there than Ohio (and maybe Florida)

I think Trump loses PA (by a lot) & MI (by less). WI is the tossup of the Rust Belt
The majority of Floridians will NOT vote for a socialist. The panhandle is almost all military and outside of a few metro areas scattered around the state, the Republicans own most of the local and regional offices. In a closely divided state, DeSantis won for that reason. Ohio and Pennsylvania are not going to elect a socialist either.

You are discounting the distaste that most Americans have for socialists and socialist platforms. The Dem base is 75-25 against socialists, the moderate middle is 75-25 against socialists, the Rep base is 85-15 against socialists, the elderly are 80-20 against socialism. If the tag can be properly applied, the Dem candidate loses.
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  #1361  
Old 06-12-19, 09:39 PM
BlueJayFan BlueJayFan is offline
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Originally Posted by SWMCinci View Post
The majority of Floridians will NOT vote for a socialist. The panhandle is almost all military and outside of a few metro areas scattered around the state, the Republicans own most of the local and regional offices. In a closely divided state, DeSantis won for that reason. Ohio and Pennsylvania are not going to elect a socialist either.

You are discounting the distaste that most Americans have for socialists and socialist platforms. The Dem base is 75-25 against socialists, the moderate middle is 75-25 against socialists, the Rep base is 85-15 against socialists, the elderly are 80-20 against socialism. If the tag can be properly applied, the Dem candidate loses.
Dems would rally behind Bernie if he gets the nomination, so your made up statistics don't really matter
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  #1362  
Old 06-12-19, 10:21 PM
JcksnPlrBrs2002 JcksnPlrBrs2002 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SWMCinci View Post
The majority of Floridians will NOT vote for a socialist. The panhandle is almost all military and outside of a few metro areas scattered around the state, the Republicans own most of the local and regional offices. In a closely divided state, DeSantis won for that reason. Ohio and Pennsylvania are not going to elect a socialist either.

You are discounting the distaste that most Americans have for socialists and socialist platforms. The Dem base is 75-25 against socialists, the moderate middle is 75-25 against socialists, the Rep base is 85-15 against socialists, the elderly are 80-20 against socialism. If the tag can be properly applied, the Dem candidate loses.
So, literally, your entire argument hinges on people defining "what a socialist is" with the same standard that you do, and then, even further, on top of that, also reacting the same way you do. I still think it's too early to make hard predictions about the election, but that's just a biiiiiit shaky.


Quote:
Originally Posted by BlueJayFan View Post
Dems would rally behind Bernie if he gets the nomination, so your made up statistics don't really matter
Pretty much this. There are quite a few Democrats who aren't fully on board with a self-described Democratic Socialist, but overall they dislike Trump even more.
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  #1363  
Old 06-12-19, 10:26 PM
cabezadecaballo cabezadecaballo is offline
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Originally Posted by BlueJayFan View Post
Dems would rally behind Bernie if he gets the nomination, so your made up statistics don't really matter
I believe it when I see it.
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  #1364  
Old 06-13-19, 07:36 AM
Gulliotine Gulliotine is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JcksnPlrBrs2002 View Post
There are quite a few Democrats who aren't fully on board with a self-described Democratic Socialist, but overall they dislike Trump even more.
Most Democrats aren't on board with a self-described Democratic Socialist, and they will not turn out in the general election to support him. Let's not sugar coat it.

But hey, keep your fingers crossed, kid.

The Democrat party is so fractured, there's little chance they can unify to defeat a widely popular President Trump...regardless the nominee.
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  #1365  
Old 06-13-19, 07:39 AM
Harrycrane Harrycrane is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gulliotine View Post
Most Democrats aren't on board with a self-described Democratic Socialist, and they will not turn out in the general election to support him. Let's not sugar coat it.

But hey, keep your fingers crossed, kid.

The Democrat party is so fractured, there's little chance they can unify to defeat a widely popular President Trump...regardless the nominee.
How do you figure 'widely" popular?
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  #1366  
Old 06-13-19, 07:46 AM
Gulliotine Gulliotine is offline
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Originally Posted by Harrycrane View Post
How do you figure 'widely" popular?
He's more popular at this point in his first term than the re-elected Obama.

His support is rock solid. The Moonbats have inflicted a thousand cuts, and the man does not bleed.

Life is pretty damn good in the country right now. It may shock you, but that's pretty popular.
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  #1367  
Old 06-13-19, 07:48 AM
lotr10 lotr10 is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gulliotine View Post
He's more popular at this point in his first term than the re-elected Obama.

His support is rock solid. The Moonbats have inflicted a thousand cuts, and the man does not bleed.

Life is pretty damn good in the country right now. It may shock you, but that's pretty popular.
Yep.

It does seem odd that BJF, Happy & Harry are getting so excited over a poll that has Biden up by 30 points 18 months out from the election. Smacks of desperation to me.
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  #1368  
Old 06-13-19, 07:53 AM
Harrycrane Harrycrane is online now
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Originally Posted by lotr10 View Post
Yep.

It does seem odd that BJF, Happy & Harry are getting so excited over a poll that has Biden up by 30 points 18 months out from the election. Smacks of desperation to me.
Where did I say I am excited? I have said it will be a tough close race if Biden gets the Nom. I disagree with widely popular is all . YOU ARE THE ONE WHO HAS SAID TRUMP IN A LANDSLIDE so who is the overly excited one here?
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  #1369  
Old 06-13-19, 08:11 AM
SWMCinci SWMCinci is offline
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Originally Posted by JcksnPlrBrs2002 View Post
So, literally, your entire argument hinges on people defining "what a socialist is" with the same standard that you do, and then, even further, on top of that, also reacting the same way you do. I still think it's too early to make hard predictions about the election, but that's just a biiiiiit shaky.

Pretty much this. There are quite a few Democrats who aren't fully on board with a self-described Democratic Socialist, but overall they dislike Trump even more.
You haven't been paying attention for what, 20 years? Politics has become identity politics, you are what someone says you are. Soft on crime? Unelectable. Flip-flopper? Unelectable. Foreign policy from the 1980s? Unelectable. Low Energy? Unelectable. Obamascam was so destructive as a policy it cost Democrats 1000 elected positions over the next 8 years - including in states where they had better organizations.

Hillary was able to paint Bernie as unelectable as a socialist only 3 years ago. She lost because the Bernie supporters, the Obama supporters, women didn't turn out for her in sufficient numbers. She (and the DNC) pissed the extreme edges of the Dems to sit it out. People might not like Trump (a lot of Republicans don't like Trump) but his supporters and other voters DID turn out because the alternative was worse. That dynamic is STILL in play.

The Democrats are going to throw a socialist into the general. Biden may survive and make it, but by that time he will be little more than a Bernie wannabe. The numbers I cited are RECENT polls, the majority of the voting public doesn't like anyone at the extreme left OR right.
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  #1370  
Old 06-13-19, 09:03 AM
2manyBats 2manyBats is offline
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Originally Posted by irish_buffalo View Post
No.

Biden beats Trump. Pete has impressed me and while I do not believe America will elect a gay mayor from South Bend I thought the same thing about Trump.

I think this election we will find out that the anomaly of last election was just how unpopular Hillary was.
Not So Fast .... Buffalo The People - NO

... "if you can't run your own house, you certainly can't run the White House"

BootyGig and his Mate have still have $ 131K in Student Loan Debt
Pete and Joe Bite Me fall into the same Line from Mrs. Hussein Obama


Uncle Joe said in 2016 ( as a 74 year old )

ďIíve never been gainfully employed in my life,Ē he revealed during the National Urban Leagueís Legislative Policy Conference

ďI donít know what the hell Iím going to do,Ē he added in regard to his tenure as vice president approaching an end.

So ... The Man you want to Run the Country has Zero Private Sector Work Experience ? Didn't we just try this with Barry - No Thanks


and yes ..... Most of us are well aware of his family losses, old and recent
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  #1371  
Old 06-13-19, 09:21 AM
fish82 fish82 is online now
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Fun Fact:

In June 2015, Hillary was up on Orange Man 59-34.
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  #1372  
Old 06-13-19, 09:30 AM
Harrycrane Harrycrane is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fish82 View Post
Fun Fact:

In June 2015, Hillary was up on Orange Man 59-34.
Yes a lot can happen and it's early but the dynamics are much different this time around . Trumps fortunes are unlikely to get much better if at all better.

If Biden is Nom he is a better candidate than Hillary . I don't see Trump getting much more popular . Majority don't think we were a total mess and Trump saved us . Most of you out here if honest were doing just fine and your lives haven't changed much since Trump lost by three million votes to eeek out a close 1 percent margin in three key states. [You realize I know you actually take this personally and I am trolling this fact that irks you}
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  #1373  
Old 06-13-19, 09:48 AM
fish82 fish82 is online now
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Originally Posted by Harrycrane View Post
Yes a lot can happen and it's early but the dynamics are much different this time around . Trumps fortunes are unlikely to get much better if at all better.
The dynamics arenít that different, TBH...although I agree that Trump is likely close to his ceiling in terms of support.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Harrycrane View Post
If Biden is Nom he is a better candidate than Hillary .
Heís actually almost as bad of a campaigner as she is, as evidenced already on the trail. I have nothing personally against him, but itís a pretty established fact that he sucks at running for President.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Harrycrane View Post
I don't see Trump getting much more popular . Majority don't think we were a total mess and Trump saved us . Most of you out here if honest were doing just fine and your lives haven't changed much since Trump lost by three million votes to eeek out a close 1 percent margin in three key states. [You realize I know you actually take this personally and I am trolling this fact that irks you}
LOL...the only one here who takes any of this personally is you. Iíll be happy to let you know if the day ever arrives where you ďirkĒ me in any fashion.

Carry on.
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  #1374  
Old 06-13-19, 09:53 AM
Harrycrane Harrycrane is online now
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Originally Posted by fish82 View Post
The dynamics arenít that different, TBH...although I agree that Trump is likely close to his ceiling in terms of support.



Heís actually almost as bad of a campaigner as she is, as evidenced already on the trail. I have nothing personally against him, but itís a pretty established fact that he sucks at running for President.



LOL...the only one here who takes any of this personally is you. Iíll be happy to let you know if the day ever arrives where you ďirkĒ me in any fashion.

Carry on.
Trust me many here take this stuff personally and are irrational fans of Trump as he is a folk hero to them so your take that I alone take anything personally is weak{ I am not a FAN of any politician , many here are FANS} . Hillary was horrible enough to have 3 million more people vote for her than Trump and lost three key states by a one percent margin . Biden will actually campaign in key states and is more likeable to that portion of the electorate .


Biden is a better candidate and if you can't see that dynamics have changed ? I'll leave it at that, I know you think you have al the answers but that was well I'll be polite . If Trump stays at this level of support he loses { Dems will get out to vote in larger numbers after witnessing Trump in action for four years} . So I suppose you are the rare echo C member who isn't predicting a larger 'landslide" lol
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  #1375  
Old 06-13-19, 09:54 AM
my2sense my2sense is offline
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Biden's poll numbers are declining from when he first announced. Time will tell.
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  #1376  
Old 06-13-19, 10:11 AM
2manyBats 2manyBats is offline
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Originally Posted by Harrycrane View Post
Trust me many here take this stuff personally and are irrational fans of Trump as he is a folk hero to them so your take that I alone take anything personally is weak{ I am not a FAN of any politician , many here are FANS} . Hillary was horrible enough to have 3 million more people vote for her than Trump and lost three key states by a one percent margin . Biden will actually campaign in key states and is more likeable to that portion of the electorate .


Biden is a better candidate and if you can't see that dynamics have changed ? I'll leave it at that, I know you think you have al the answers but that was well I'll be polite . If Trump stays at this level of support he loses { Dems will get out to vote in larger numbers after witnessing Trump in action for four years} . So I suppose you are the rare echo C member who isn't predicting a larger 'landslide" lol
I think I figure you Out

You Own a Pot Shop !

Do us all a Favor, Quit Sampling your Products ?
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  #1377  
Old 06-13-19, 10:20 AM
fish82 fish82 is online now
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Originally Posted by Harrycrane View Post
Trust me many here take this stuff personally and are irrational fans of Trump as he is a folk hero to them so your take that I alone take anything personally is weak{ I am not a FAN of any politician , many here are FANS} . Hillary was horrible enough to have 3 million more people vote for her than Trump and lost three key states by a one percent margin . Biden will actually campaign in key states and is more likeable to that portion of the electorate .


Biden is a better candidate and if you can't see that dynamics have changed ? I'll leave it at that, I know you think you have al the answers but that was well I'll be polite . If Trump stays at this level of support he loses { Dems will get out to vote in larger numbers after witnessing Trump in action for four years} . So I suppose you are the rare echo C member who isn't predicting a larger 'landslide" lol
I never said I have “all the answers,” nor do I think as such.

That said, it’s a pretty well established fact that I have most of them.

So, there’s that.
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  #1378  
Old 06-13-19, 10:44 AM
irish_buffalo irish_buffalo is offline
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Originally Posted by zeeman View Post
If the economy stays strong he wins, if not Biden will. Itís pretty simple really
Pretty much.

If the economy stays strong all of this will be moot.

I still say last election was more of a mandate on the country's hatred for Hillary than it was for our admiration of Trump. History will show perfect timing for Orangeman all the way through.
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  #1379  
Old 06-13-19, 10:48 AM
irish_buffalo irish_buffalo is offline
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Originally Posted by fish82 View Post
I never said I have ďall the answers,Ē nor do I think as such.

That said, itís a pretty well established fact that I have most of them.

So, thereís that.


As I have gotten older I have learned that politicians have very little to do with bull markets and recessions. They certainly have influence but it is more an ebb and flow of natural expansion and retraction in economics.

With that said lets sit back and watch the spin on whose fault the next recession will fall under? If it happens 6 mos. before the election all the Dems will blame Trump. If it happens 6 mos. after and Biden wins all of the Pubs will blame Biden. If Trump wins and it happens 6 mos. after the election all of the Dems will blame Trump.
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  #1380  
Old 06-13-19, 10:51 AM
fish82 fish82 is online now
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Originally Posted by irish_buffalo View Post


As I have gotten older I have learned that politicians have very little to do with bull markets and recessions. They certainly have influence but it is more an ebb and flow of natural expansion and retraction in economics.

With that said lets sit back and watch the spin on whose fault the next recession will fall under? If it happens 6 mos. before the election all the Dems will blame Trump. If it happens 6 mos. after and Biden wins all of the Pubs will blame Biden. If Trump wins and it happens 6 mos. after the election all of the Dems will blame Trump.
Yup. Lather, Rinse, Repeat.
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