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  #31  
Old 02-22-19, 12:38 PM
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BR1986FB BR1986FB is offline
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I play slots. Not the greatest odds but did have a 200k year back in 2014, I believe. Nephew plays blackjack. That kid's a high rolling freak. He was playing 10k per hand in the high limit room with guys like Joe Haden & Manziel. His biggests hits on one hand were 350k (Vegas) and 200k+ twice in Cleveland. Kid is debt free and farting through silk.
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  #32  
Old 02-22-19, 01:43 PM
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Originally Posted by eaglepride View Post
The jack went down hill about 1-2 years ago when they listened to the millennials complaining that they wanted more variety on table games, so they added "circus versions" of blackjack by making subtle changes to the game and odds. Then they got rid of the low minimum section in favor of more slot machines. Any yes, the dreaded 6/5 blackjack is on the first floor.

Very few regular blackjack tables available now because of all the sections, so you cannot table hop when the shoe is horrible.
I see more and more circus card games in the table section, all with these little twists that must be the house advantage. They need to just put a neon sign over the games that says "Suckers Here".

Use to be too that a Casino had some of the best customer service around, not any more. I have an Aunt with MS and she told me that Casinos were the 1st places to be fully wheel chair accessible back in the 70s and they actually had a dedicated host that would make sure they were comfortable and attend to any special needs. Now unless you are a high end roller they treat you like it is a privilege that you get to gamble in their work place.
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  #33  
Old 02-22-19, 03:29 PM
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And you better be a high roller that loses....
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  #34  
Old 02-22-19, 03:55 PM
JcksnPlrBrs2002 JcksnPlrBrs2002 is offline
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Originally Posted by Arrogate View Post
I would say more probably lie about gambling but i dont see anyone here claiming to be a winner so what do i know lol

We need nd2000 back to pretend to be a high rolling pro gambler
Technically speaking, I'm a "professional gambler that wins"... ...but I also focus solely on poker (I absolutely refuse to play "house games" of any kind), and I spend a tremendous amount of effort figuring out how to minimize the "gambling" aspect.

It's virtually impossible to be a long-term winner with house games, outside of maybe a situation where someone really knows how to fully leverage comps. I can see where a relatively small group of people could be long-term winners with sports betting, but from what I understand, it's pretty hard to beat the vig.
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  #35  
Old 02-22-19, 04:09 PM
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Not a gambler at all but if it becomes legal at sporting events I would likely drop 10-20 on a wager at the stadium.
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  #36  
Old 02-22-19, 04:42 PM
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Originally Posted by JcksnPlrBrs2002 View Post
Technically speaking, I'm a "professional gambler that wins"... ...but I also focus solely on poker (I absolutely refuse to play "house games" of any kind), and I spend a tremendous amount of effort figuring out how to minimize the "gambling" aspect.

It's virtually impossible to be a long-term winner with house games, outside of maybe a situation where someone really knows how to fully leverage comps. I can see where a relatively small group of people could be long-term winners with sports betting, but from what I understand, it's pretty hard to beat the vig.


Depends on how you find value. I dont bet on sports but I know of a couple who do win. From my understanding the few that do win all get good rebates, which is key. However their philosphy is to take moneylines on underdogs, hardly ever bet against the spread straight up, when they do bet spreads it is in parlays to gain equity.

I play horses and takeout on those bets is astronomical. I have kind of changed my approach to gambling after following a guy on Twitter named Insidethepylons. He is very astute with his philosophy. I have found myself playing more small tracks and staying away from computer/sharp bettora. Also searching for lowest takeout and best rebate percentages for each track/type of bet.

I highly reccomend Betting with an Edge if anyone ever wants to learn about horse gambling. One of the few people who have written a horse player book that is an actual winner.
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  #37  
Old 02-22-19, 05:04 PM
JcksnPlrBrs2002 JcksnPlrBrs2002 is offline
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Originally Posted by Arrogate View Post
Table games dont have near as much ROI but in the long run i think it is necessary to have them (along with a "normal"/"fair" house advantage) players need to at least have the feeling that they can win. Not all gamblers are stupid and you will see them move away from casinos if they arent given fair odds.

Mgm is laying off 3% of it it's work force. Time to wake up if they want to stay in business

If they want to see the model for failure look no further in how race tracks treat their customer base. The short term gains dont last. Big picture is tough for some to see.
This actually REALLY concerns me. Even if I don't actually play anything outside of the cardroom, we do depend on a certain amount of "dead money" regularly coming in off of the main floor to give poker a try (otherwise it's just sharks shipping money back and forth to each other). If the casino gets too greedy and loses traffic, it's bad for us too. I've noticed a decrease in casino traffic in general, and have mostly switched to playing online as a consequence.

I'm actually really excited about the potential for sports betting to take off for that exact reason. I don't bet on sports, but I was doing cartwheels over the idea of an influx of casual bettors coming in for possible live sports books - some of that extra traffic would inevitably make its way over to the poker tables, and thats extremely +EV for serious players. I wouldn't say I'm "world class", but playing casuals is shooting fish in a barrel.
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  #38  
Old 02-22-19, 05:10 PM
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Spot on man. In the end it will eventually catch up to them.

This is the problem with them solely looking at ROI per square foot. They miss the big picture
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  #39  
Old 02-22-19, 06:57 PM
irish_buffalo irish_buffalo is offline
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Originally Posted by BR1986FB View Post
I play slots. Not the greatest odds but did have a 200k year back in 2014, I believe. Nephew plays blackjack. That kid's a high rolling freak. He was playing 10k per hand in the high limit room with guys like Joe Haden & Manziel. His biggests hits on one hand were 350k (Vegas) and 200k+ twice in Cleveland. Kid is debt free and farting through silk.
You won $200,000 playing slots? You make it sound as though you made all that gradually over a years time playing slots. If you told me you hit big once I could believe you. If you said you hit big twice in one year I'd call you the luckiest man alive. Slots are tight my man. Winning $200,000 over a year of gradual playing? I call BS.

I've seen pro athletes throw their money around (away) playing blackjack and dice up in Detroit. I've heard of "pros" before but have never really seen one. I've been on the legal side and the non legal book side and can tell you the house always wins. Many degenerates will tell you that they won $10,000 on an NFL parlay but neglect to tell you it cost them $25,000 chasing it. Outside of cheating, the house ALWAYS wins.

Interesting story. When I was younger we'd head to the Detroit Casino's quite a bit. I'd go on a Friday and a Saturday and sometimes you'd see the same person wearing the same cloths as the day before who were clearly there for 24+ hours. I saw people pass out at machines and tables. I have a good friend who owns a carpet company and he has the contract to one of the Detroit Casinos. He said not a week goes by where they do not have to go make carpet repairs because superstitious gamblers will piss and $hit themselves because they are afraid if they leave their seat out of fear the next pull will hit.
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  #40  
Old 02-22-19, 07:04 PM
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So you dont think anyone wins in sports gambling of any kind?


William Hill is lowering limits to sharp bettors bc they dont want to take their money? Or do you think it is bc they are afraid of the few sharps who do win?
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  #41  
Old 02-22-19, 07:43 PM
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Originally Posted by Arrogate View Post
So you dont think anyone wins in sports gambling of any kind?


William Hill is lowering limits to sharp bettors bc they dont want to take their money? Or do you think it is bc they are afraid of the few sharps who do win?
I'm sure there are some really crafty folks out there that data mine sports to the point of being efficient. For those that do get caught shaving points, like Gary Manni with the University of Toledo, I often wonder how many more get away with it? But again, that is cheating.

I myself have never seen it. I have been around gambling my whole life and have never met a successful gambler.
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  #42  
Old 02-22-19, 08:01 PM
JcksnPlrBrs2002 JcksnPlrBrs2002 is offline
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Originally Posted by Arrogate View Post
So you dont think anyone wins in sports gambling of any kind?


William Hill is lowering limits to sharp bettors bc they dont want to take their money? Or do you think it is bc they are afraid of the few sharps who do win?
I personally think that there are some skilled and/or knowledgeable handicappers that are able to make some money at it over the long term. I also think that a not-insignificant percentage of sports bettors who say that they're winning money are exaggerating or flat-out lying. For every single Haralabos Voulgaris out there, there are probably dozens more "winners" who are actually just losing degens.
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  #43  
Old 02-22-19, 10:44 PM
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7th race at turfway. All my bets were centered around the 2 for multi race wagers. 10-1 m/l jockey opens up and quits riding while looking back. Man that hurts.
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  #44  
Old 02-22-19, 11:10 PM
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I know a decent amount of gamblers, most are horse gamblers. I would say personally i know maybe 6 guys that make money at it and a big factor in that is rebates. They arent competing at the same "takeout" level as the rest of us. I dont gamble near the amount as they do obviously so my rebates arent great. When you can get up to 15% back it is a game changer. The goal at that point is to break even before rebates.

One thing I have gotten better at is picking my spots and not playing to play. I watch a lot of replays and make bet backs based on trip notes. If i just stuck to the good info i get from my "barn talk" i would be much better off.

My philosphy has changed in ticket construction to where i am not afraid to lose. For example i do a lot of multi race wagers and i used to use favorites or short priced horsea defensively bc i didn't want to get knocked out. I now realize that is just bad gambling. Short prices horses shouldnt be used when spreading or used defensively. I will now play more aggressively long shots i like, trying to leverage my opinions. It cuts down on ticket cost and i can use that saved money to invest further in my opinions or to use on another sequence. Kf it beats me it beats me, i need to move on. That fear of losing has cost me a lot of money in bets adding horses l shouldnt use.


Another facet i am trying to do better at is picking which pools to play that maximize my opinion. I often times get too comfy playing p3 or p4s when i should probably find other pools to play horses i like.

I need to be more open minded to change and finding the best way to bet my opinions. I cant get set in my ways bc that is a losing proposition, i need to evolve.

The way i play isnt for everyone. I make cheap tickets where i use longshots. Getting over the fear of losing is something i am working on and it has made me "better". Making good bets over time will pay off, or at least that is the hope. each bet i make i ask myself if it is a good bet, am i gaining equity. Another aspect is i have quit worrying how i did each day. It isnt a sprint, it is the longhaul. The key question i ask is did i make "good" bets. I chart all of my bets and if i made good bets that day i am happy.

I also have found i have done much better on big days of racing where the top horses run and there is a lot of money in the pools. If you look back on the big days of racing that I have posted on here you can see i did qell on those days. It is the days in between that i have struggled, making too mant bets just to have action. When i analyze my bets i have found i am better in maiden races and turf races. I bave a decent knowledge of pedigree and analyzing training regiments. The public as a whole isnt good at those races and accounting for improvement of young lightly raced horses. That is where i think I have some edge. I am trying to play more of these races bc i am actually profitable in certain subsets of races and i need to play those more.

I love horse racing bc of all the angles and intricacies.

I am a little drunk so sorry for typos or things that don't make sense. I also realize nobody on here cares about horses so this is basically me talking to myself i need to recruit some horse players to yappi.

Last edited by Arrogate; 02-22-19 at 11:23 PM.
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  #45  
Old 02-22-19, 11:12 PM
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In conclusion a winning bet that cashes isnt always a good bet.

Id rather make good bets that lose than bad winning bets that cash. In the long run i think it will pay off
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  #46  
Old 02-22-19, 11:18 PM
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Jackson you play poker so we can discuss some of your ohilosphy etc. That might be more of a worthy discussion for this board as opposed to my rants on racing.
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  #47  
Old 02-22-19, 11:50 PM
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I guess one question i would have is how do you pick your limits? What is your sweet spot in assessing what level of player/limits that gives you best ROI? I feel like that is a big part of the game and is really interesting.

Do you do cash games mostly or tourneys? What types of tourneys do you do if you play them?
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  #48  
Old 02-22-19, 11:52 PM
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If you see a player you know is sharp will you not play with them? Is there any wink and nod between the two of you to where you go after the others?

Idk is there a certain "demographic" of idiot that you like to go after? drunk college guy? Trying to keep this somewhat humorous lol
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  #49  
Old 02-23-19, 12:38 AM
JcksnPlrBrs2002 JcksnPlrBrs2002 is offline
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Originally Posted by Arrogate View Post
Jackson you play poker so we can discuss some of your ohilosphy etc. That might be more of a worthy discussion for this board as opposed to my rants on racing.
I hinted at this earlier in the thread, but I think one of the biggest differences between an "amateur gambler" and a "professional gambler" is that the former is trying to figure out the "best way" to gamble, and professionals are often trying to figure out how to minimize the "gamble" (or at least the variance) involved with what they're doing. It's a somewhat different mindset.

The main reason I don't play house games or get into sports betting has a lot to do with the "margins". If you do something for a living, and need to replace a steady paycheck, the calculus completely changes. Even with the very best house games, like blackjack, even if you leverage comps expertly and/or have some genius scheme, you're talking about incredibly small margins, if it's even possible at all (the overwhelming amount of the time, it's not - I'm sorry, but you cannot "go pro" at casino games). It might make sense for retirees who are masters at comps and have their own separate retirement income to spend significant time with it, and that's about it. You still need to cash to live, and a lot of comps aren't cash. People forget that even the famous MIT Blackjack Team only ever managed something like a 1.5-2.0% player advantage (after months of practice with a coordinated scheme), had deep-pockets investors behind them, and already had a lot of their living expenses taken care of from being students. Sports betting or horse betting is more realistic, in theory, but again, even if you can get into the rarefied air of being a consistent winner, the margins are still pretty small and you need a massive bankroll to live "reasonably". If you can manage an ROI of 5-10+%, you're basically elite, but that also means that you have to bet $500,000 to $1M every year, on high variance events that you have zero control over, to maybe make a "salary" of $50K. At that point, you might as well either just be a bookie yourself, find a safer way to invest the money for at least that kind of return, or use your incredible analytical skills to go learn how to be a day trader or something. A lot of those factors completely change with poker, so that's largely why I've never strayed from it.
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  #50  
Old 02-23-19, 01:13 AM
JcksnPlrBrs2002 JcksnPlrBrs2002 is offline
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If you see a player you know is sharp will you not play with them? Is there any wink and nod between the two of you to where you go after the others?

Idk is there a certain "demographic" of idiot that you like to go after? drunk college guy? Trying to keep this somewhat humorous lol
It's usually not a big deal if there's a few other good players at the table. What's funny is that you don't even need to "wink and nod". Good players will just naturally tend to avoid big spots with each other and go after bad players, unprompted. You don't get a special medal for beating better players. If the table is just full of good players, I'll usually just leave for another. The truth is though, most live games have no shortage of terrible players. It's not like I play in a nosebleed room at the Bellagio. I mostly play online anyway though - the rake is lower, I can multi-table, and it's easier to find games. I mostly play live to catch up with friends and goof around, to be honest.

Everyone spots the "ballcap kids" coming a mile away. They all wear the same stupid hoodie-and-shades combo, they've seen some latenight poker on ESPN and think it'll be easy, and they usually get thrashed. Occasionally one of them will actually be good, and you have to keep an eye for a bit just in case, but they almost always suck. I also hate them because they often play like they're in the damn WSOP and frequently call for time and go into dramatic staredowns for several minutes - it's incredibly unnecessary and irritating. The ones that always actually seem to get me (and everyone else) are those elderly superstitious Asian/Russian/Middle Easter/whichever ladies that come in randomly of off the slot bays, seem like they barely know what they're doing, play unpredictably, and are virtually always a lot sharper than people would guess.

The easiest marks : Guys in nice suits that came from a business conference or something. Heaven help them if they're still wearing a name tag from it. I don't know why, but they almost all think they're good, and they're almost all hopelessly bad.


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I guess one question i would have is how do you pick your limits? What is your sweet spot in assessing what level of player/limits that gives you best ROI? I feel like that is a big part of the game and is really interesting.

Do you do cash games mostly or tourneys? What types of tourneys do you do if you play them?
I'm largely a single-table tournament specialist, for practical reasons. They're boring, but they're the easiest to multi-table (I usually play 12-16 of them at a time), and volume matters, a LOT. Anything I can do to lower variance is worth considering, because my bills definitely don't vary in response to how my month went. I'll mix in some regular cash games too, because SNG's get repetitive/mechanical. Full tournaments can be fun, but they're high variance, take a long time, and they don't suit my game as well, so I usually just play them for fun, or maybe to take a crack at one of the bigger online ones.

Picking limits is a combination of a lot of different things. I keep track of literally everything, so I have a pretty good idea of what makes the most per hour for me. Sometimes it's also worth sacrificing some money per hour to drop down and lower your variance. You have to be brutally honest with yourself about it. Pride can be expensive in poker. When I was first starting out, I'd periodically run into "I have the bankroll, but not the skill" situations as I moved up, so I'd have to drop down and work some kinks out, even though I had the money to play up. Sometimes downswings just happen, so it can be a good idea to drop down and just rebuild confidence a bit. Other times, I spot some familiar names in bigger games and it can be worth moving up for a bit. You find out really fast if you can hack a certain level.

Last edited by JcksnPlrBrs2002; 02-23-19 at 02:56 PM.
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  #51  
Old 02-23-19, 08:22 PM
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Might dabble at Sam Houston tonight. Not sure, need to find a couple vulnerable favorites.
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  #52  
Old 02-23-19, 09:23 PM
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It's usually not a big deal if there's a few other good players at the table. What's funny is that you don't even need to "wink and nod". Good players will just naturally tend to avoid big spots with each other and go after bad players, unprompted. You don't get a special medal for beating better players. If the table is just full of good players, I'll usually just leave for another. The truth is though, most live games have no shortage of terrible players. It's not like I play in a nosebleed room at the Bellagio. I mostly play online anyway though - the rake is lower, I can multi-table, and it's easier to find games. I mostly play live to catch up with friends and goof around, to be honest.

Everyone spots the "ballcap kids" coming a mile away. They all wear the same stupid hoodie-and-shades combo, they've seen some latenight poker on ESPN and think it'll be easy, and they usually get thrashed. Occasionally one of them will actually be good, and you have to keep an eye for a bit just in case, but they almost always suck. I also hate them because they often play like they're in the damn WSOP and frequently call for time and go into dramatic staredowns for several minutes - it's incredibly unnecessary and irritating. The ones that always actually seem to get me (and everyone else) are those elderly superstitious Asian/Russian/Middle Easter/whichever ladies that come in randomly of off the slot bays, seem like they barely know what they're doing, play unpredictably, and are virtually always a lot sharper than people would guess.

The easiest marks : Guys in nice suits that came from a business conference or something. Heaven help them if they're still wearing a name tag from it. I don't know why, but they almost all think they're good, and they're almost all hopelessly bad.




I'm largely a single-table tournament specialist, for practical reasons. They're boring, but they're the easiest to multi-table (I usually play 12-16 of them at a time), and volume matters, a LOT. Anything I can do to lower variance is worth considering, because my bills definitely don't vary in response to how my month went. I'll mix in some regular cash games too, because SNG's get repetitive/mechanical. Full tournaments can be fun, but they're high variance, take a long time, and they don't suit my game as well, so I usually just play them for fun, or maybe to take a crack at one of the bigger online ones.

Picking limits is a combination of a lot of different things. I keep track of literally everything, so I have a pretty good idea of what makes the most per hour for me. Sometimes it's also worth sacrificing some money per hour to drop down and lower your variance. You have to be brutally honest with yourself about it. Pride can be expensive in poker. When I was first starting out, I'd periodically run into "I have the bankroll, but not the skill" situations as I moved up, so I'd have to drop down and work some kinks out, even though I had the money to play up. Sometimes downswings just happen, so it can be a good idea to drop down and just rebuild confidence a bit. Other times, I spot some familiar names in bigger games and it can be worth moving up for a bit. You find out really fast if you can hack a certain level.
I really appreciate this post. I remember when the poker "boom" happened 15 years ago or so and everyone became a poker pro overnight down to the entire Rounders movie schtick.

Poker is a different animal. I never had the patience to sit there for hours but it is certainly different from house games as you are not playing the house but rather other players.

I also know absolutely nothing about horse racing other than showing up to the track a couple times in my youth to gamble for fun. Unsure if it is true or not but back when Toledo still had a their horse track the rumor was that all the races were rigged. Who knows but I do know if there is money to be made people will game the system and it simply seemed like a place where that could happen.
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Old 02-23-19, 10:32 PM
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This wasnt race fixing but a rather big deal when it happened. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002...etting_scandal

Most race fixing will happen at smaller tracks. It happens. Maybe not as often as some think. Often times a jockey will drop a favorite back or ride the horse into trouble. Can be hard to "prove" but with better bet tracking technology it can be noticed by odd pool/payouts. For example you can lookup the price changes in the pools for every second wagering is available. While you may not be able to track who made each bet you can see if there is an irregularity.

A guy on Twitter named o_crunk will occasionally present odd betting patterns. Same with Ed DeRosa


When longshots win i often hear idiots say the track fixed it. If only they understood what parimutuel wagering is
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  #54  
Old 02-24-19, 12:33 AM
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Needed the 10 in the last race at Sam Houston. Would have been a decent hit with her at 16-1. Lost the photo in a head bob.
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Old 02-24-19, 01:54 AM
JcksnPlrBrs2002 JcksnPlrBrs2002 is offline
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This wasnt race fixing but a rather big deal when it happened. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002...etting_scandal

Most race fixing will happen at smaller tracks. It happens. Maybe not as often as some think. Often times a jockey will drop a favorite back or ride the horse into trouble. Can be hard to "prove" but with better bet tracking technology it can be noticed by odd pool/payouts. For example you can lookup the price changes in the pools for every second wagering is available. While you may not be able to track who made each bet you can see if there is an irregularity.

A guy on Twitter named o_crunk will occasionally present odd betting patterns. Same with Ed DeRosa


When longshots win i often hear idiots say the track fixed it. If only they understood what parimutuel wagering is

As a side note, I'm kind of curious what that entire industry is going to do to try to stave off dying out within the next generation. Dog racing is already on fumes, and horse racing in general has been having its own issues. There are various theories as to why, but no matter which is correct, revenue/attendance has been on the downward trend for years. I think they're inevitably going to have to make some major changes or it'll fade out.
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Old 02-24-19, 08:20 AM
queencitybuckeye queencitybuckeye is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Arrogate View Post
So you dont think anyone wins in sports gambling of any kind?
One in thousands, if not ten thousands.
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  #57  
Old 02-24-19, 10:42 AM
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I am going to respond to Jacksons post at some point when i have time bc there is going to be a rant on my end.
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Old 02-24-19, 01:46 PM
troyboy73 troyboy73 is offline
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Every now and then I play the pick 3.
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Old 02-24-19, 02:12 PM
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Lottery?
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Old 02-24-19, 04:03 PM
Arrogate Arrogate is online now
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Playing a few races at Gulfstream Park.

Race 8 p3
4,6,8/1,6/9

1st leg i dont like the favorites. They are both 1st time starters going 2 turns for the first time, which is a huge play against. Very hard to have the fitness for 2 turns right off the bat.

In the 11th i like the 3 Madame Uno. 2nd off of the layoff and was 6 wide into the first turn. Hoping for improvement and a clear early lead.
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