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  #31  
Old 10-01-18, 06:25 PM
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Originally Posted by kingpin2010 View Post
Given the schedule they’ve played/still got left and being reigning champs, I don’t think any one is going to want to host South Range in week 11.

This region is weird in that there is a bunch of teams that look really good, but haven’t played much competition yet so it’s hard to say how good
I agree. South Range is in the position they're in now because of the 2 wins they have over fellow teams from this region.

It's an oddball region. There's like 12 different leagues/divisions of leagues represented in this region plus a handful are independent for football right now. There's not as much head-to-head competition as exists in most other playoff regions.


R17 games to watch this week:
LaBrae @ Newton Falls - Should be easy but important points for the Vikings as they look to lock up a playoff spot and work toward a home game.

Orrville vs. Loudonville - Last home game of the regular season for the Red Riders. Don't want to get caught looking ahead to Manchester, or else all the good from last week's win over CVCA could be lost.

Wickliffe vs. Cuyahoga Hts. - The Blue Devils could make themselves even more of a playoff lock with a win.

Crestview vs. Magnolia (WV) - The Rebels need to keep piling up points.

South Range vs. Garfield Hts. - All is not lost with a loss here or even next week, but a strong performance here could automatically launch the Raiders into the role of favorite to repeat as regional champion.

Garfield vs. Crestwood - This one looks like an elimination game. There's no guarantee the winner will make the playoffs though. Garfield still has Mogadore and Rootstown. Crestwood still has Rootstown and Valley Christian.

Chippewa vs. Hillsdale - The Chipps need to start moving up the points ladder.

Everyone else is in "run the table" mode unless Pasteur already believes they've been eliminated.
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  #32  
Old 10-07-18, 04:49 PM
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I've run some numbers, and this region is still loaded with uncertainty. There are too many horribly inconsistent teams in this region that don't yield much confidence with regard to projecting the final 3 weeks of the season. Nevertheless, I'm taking a stab at it:

1. Orrville, 9-1, 21.15 - The #1 seed in the region could be on the line this Friday at Manchester. Orrville would finish around 17.55 with a loss to Manchester.

2. Crestview, 6-3, 18.7969 - They're getting big help from reduced L1 and L2 divisors. I have the Rebels at 14.3333 if they lose their final 2 games. That might still get them in at 5-4.

3. Manchester, 7-3, 17.9480 - 1 of the tougher finishing schedules in the region could have the Panthers anywhere from the #1 seed to barely getting in. Losses to both Orrville and CVCA would still leave the Panthers around 14.8722.

4. Gilmour Academy, 10-0, 17.3912 - Gilmour has arguably the best athlete in the region, but their weak nonleague schedule and poor showing by fellow NCL White teams will likely keep the Lancers from a higher seed.

5. LaBrae, 9-1, 16.9500 - Only thing standing between LaBrae and a 10-0 season is Girard in week 9. I have the Vikings losing that game. They'd move up around 20.9000 if they prove me wrong.

6. Grand Valley, 9-1, 14.9500 - Big game against Windham on Friday. Lose that game, and the Mustangs fall down to 11.7500 which is unlikely to get it done.

7. Sandy Valley, 9-1, 14.9000 - Big game against East Canton on Friday. Lose that game, and the Cardinals tumble to around 11.9000. Another big game with Buckeye Trail also looms in week 10, but I think the Cardinals will win that one.

8. Wickliffe, 8-2, 14.6235 - A major upset win over Kirtland in week 10 could vault the Blue Devils up to 18.85 and potentially into a home game.

Here's where a lot of uncertainty comes into play:

13.00 seems to be the number that teams need to reach in order to have any hope. From there, some L2 points here or there could make a big difference for every team still in the hunt.

Garfield still has 2 massive points games remaining with Mogadore and Rootstown. I don't think they'll win either of them, but they could get above 14.00 if they do.

South Range also has a large point games remaining against St. Clairsville. A win over Louisville would be nice this Friday, but the St. Clairsville game looks to be the one that will determine the Raiders' playoff fate. I have the Raiders at 15.9308 if they go 6-4 with a win over St. Clairsville.

Beachwood's hopes ride on running the table which would get them around 15.0601. It's a longshot.

Tuslaw needs to win out to get above 14.0000 to stay in the hunt. The Mustangs haven't been consistent to make me certain that it will happen.

Chippewa would only get to around 13.4000 if they can win out which includes a week 10 upset win over Norwayne.

Fairless still has a pulse if they win out, but I don't see it happening.

Perhaps the biggest elephant in the room is Canton CC's situation. They are all but done if they don't beat Jackson on Friday. Even if they win out, I only have them getting to 13.3040. They need extra L2 help which would include St. Thomas winning another game, Bellevue beating any of their final 3 games against 5-2 teams, Royal Imperial winning a 4th game (I have them winning 3), Jackson beating Hoover (can't see them beating Hoover if they don't beat Canton CC), or Louisville beating Massillon.

I did not calculate anything for any other teams because they either have too many wins over teams that won't give them many points the rest of the way, they have games left against teams that won't give them enough points, or they have enough points left but are extreme longshots to win those games.

Things should become much more clear after this weekend.

Week 8 games to watch:
Manchester vs. Orrville
Garfield at Mogadore
Sandy Valley vs. East Canton
Grand Valley vs. Windham
South Range at Louisville
Canton CC at Jackson
Crestwood vs. Rootstown
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  #33  
Old 10-07-18, 05:32 PM
Buckeye Elite Buckeye Elite is online now
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South range has their work cut out for them with Louisville, I see the leps winning by multiple scores. Labrae/Girard will be an absolute battle
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  #34  
Old 10-07-18, 05:36 PM
kingpin2010 kingpin2010 is online now
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Nice analysis. I agree on your take about South Range, I think St Clairsville is the game they are much more likely to win as well as the most important, the Raiders beat them down in St Clairsville last year. This week against Louisville they are kind of playing with house money where a win would be a huge boost and a loss doesn’t hurt them much.

Labrae to me is still a mystery as to how good they are. The win over liberty was good, but it not sure liberty is as good as their record (they struggled with a really bad champion squad for 3 quarters). If they beat Girard I think they could win the region.
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  #35  
Old 10-07-18, 06:28 PM
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I concur, great analysis there Mr. Slippery!!! I appreciate all that you do here on Yappi.

As far as South Range...I think they have become like some of the parochial schools in that they have REALLY scheduled up. If they win enough games to get in, then they could be a very dangerous team. But by playing so many bigger schools, they may not be able to "survive" the season.

Yeah, I don't expect them to beat Louisville, but I know they will come out and give it their best shot. Maybe, if Louisville has a "let down" after beating Mooney and beats themselves, the Raiders can pull a major upset. But I'm sure not counting on that. The Leopards are too well coached to let that happen.

The problem with St. Clairsville is that the Red Devils played them last year and lost to the Raiders. The Raiders won't "sneak" up on them this year. I have a feeling the Red Devils will come ready to play this year.
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  #36  
Old 10-07-18, 09:42 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr. Slippery View Post
I've run some numbers, and this region is still loaded with uncertainty. There are too many horribly inconsistent teams in this region that don't yield much confidence with regard to projecting the final 3 weeks of the season. Nevertheless, I'm taking a stab at it:

1. Orrville, 9-1, 21.15 - The #1 seed in the region could be on the line this Friday at Manchester. Orrville would finish around 17.55 with a loss to Manchester.

2. Crestview, 6-3, 18.7969 - They're getting big help from reduced L1 and L2 divisors. I have the Rebels at 14.3333 if they lose their final 2 games. That might still get them in at 5-4.

3. Manchester, 7-3, 17.9480 - 1 of the tougher finishing schedules in the region could have the Panthers anywhere from the #1 seed to barely getting in. Losses to both Orrville and CVCA would still leave the Panthers around 14.8722.

4. Gilmour Academy, 10-0, 17.3912 - Gilmour has arguably the best athlete in the region, but their weak nonleague schedule and poor showing by fellow NCL White teams will likely keep the Lancers from a higher seed.

5. LaBrae, 9-1, 16.9500 - Only thing standing between LaBrae and a 10-0 season is Girard in week 9. I have the Vikings losing that game. They'd move up around 20.9000 if they prove me wrong.

6. Grand Valley, 9-1, 14.9500 - Big game against Windham on Friday. Lose that game, and the Mustangs fall down to 11.7500 which is unlikely to get it done.

7. Sandy Valley, 9-1, 14.9000 - Big game against East Canton on Friday. Lose that game, and the Cardinals tumble to around 11.9000. Another big game with Buckeye Trail also looms in week 10, but I think the Cardinals will win that one.

8. Wickliffe, 8-2, 14.6235 - A major upset win over Kirtland in week 10 could vault the Blue Devils up to 18.85 and potentially into a home game.

Here's where a lot of uncertainty comes into play:

13.00 seems to be the number that teams need to reach in order to have any hope. From there, some L2 points here or there could make a big difference for every team still in the hunt.

Garfield still has 2 massive points games remaining with Mogadore and Rootstown. I don't think they'll win either of them, but they could get above 14.00 if they do.

South Range also has a large point games remaining against St. Clairsville. A win over Louisville would be nice this Friday, but the St. Clairsville game looks to be the one that will determine the Raiders' playoff fate. I have the Raiders at 15.9308 if they go 6-4 with a win over St. Clairsville.

Beachwood's hopes ride on running the table which would get them around 15.0601. It's a longshot.

Tuslaw needs to win out to get above 14.0000 to stay in the hunt. The Mustangs haven't been consistent to make me certain that it will happen.

Chippewa would only get to around 13.4000 if they can win out which includes a week 10 upset win over Norwayne.

Fairless still has a pulse if they win out, but I don't see it happening.

Perhaps the biggest elephant in the room is Canton CC's situation. They are all but done if they don't beat Jackson on Friday. Even if they win out, I only have them getting to 13.3040. They need extra L2 help which would include St. Thomas winning another game, Bellevue beating any of their final 3 games against 5-2 teams, Royal Imperial winning a 4th game (I have them winning 3), Jackson beating Hoover (can't see them beating Hoover if they don't beat Canton CC), or Louisville beating Massillon.

I did not calculate anything for any other teams because they either have too many wins over teams that won't give them many points the rest of the way, they have games left against teams that won't give them enough points, or they have enough points left but are extreme longshots to win those games.

Things should become much more clear after this weekend.

Week 8 games to watch:
Manchester vs. Orrville
Garfield at Mogadore
Sandy Valley vs. East Canton
Grand Valley vs. Windham
South Range at Louisville
Canton CC at Jackson
Crestwood vs. Rootstown
Noble effort but there are way too many variable still in play to accurately project yet. I did some of my own and there are too many second level toss ups that could result in teams jumping or dropping 3 seeds. I think LaBrae, Orrville and Manchester are 3 best by far regardless of seeding.
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  #37  
Old 10-08-18, 10:53 AM
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Originally Posted by Raider#23 View Post
I concur, great analysis there Mr. Slippery!!! I appreciate all that you do here on Yappi.

As far as South Range...I think they have become like some of the parochial schools in that they have REALLY scheduled up. If they win enough games to get in, then they could be a very dangerous team. But by playing so many bigger schools, they may not be able to "survive" the season.

Yeah, I don't expect them to beat Louisville, but I know they will come out and give it their best shot. Maybe, if Louisville has a "let down" after beating Mooney and beats themselves, the Raiders can pull a major upset. But I'm sure not counting on that. The Leopards are too well coached to let that happen.

The problem with St. Clairsville is that the Red Devils played them last year and lost to the Raiders. The Raiders won't "sneak" up on them this year. I have a feeling the Red Devils will come ready to play this year.
Yeah. Say SR beats Louisville. The Leopards have Massillon next week and then Canton CC the week after. They could easily finish 4-6 which means they're not the big point haul that they appear to be right now, and that win alone might not get the Raiders in (assuming nobody else in R17 takes a bad loss). That's why the St. Clairsville game is the one that the Raiders really need. However, you pair up wins over Louisville and St. Clairsville, and the Raiders are suddenly in the conversation to host in the 1st round.
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  #38  
Old 10-08-18, 10:56 AM
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Originally Posted by therock02 View Post
Noble effort but there are way too many variable still in play to accurately project yet. I did some of my own and there are too many second level toss ups that could result in teams jumping or dropping 3 seeds. I think LaBrae, Orrville and Manchester are 3 best by far regardless of seeding.
Like I said, we're talking about a lot of horribly inconsistent teams here. I don't like projecting from this far out, but it's worth a try to find out which teams still have realistic chances of qualifying and what might have to happen for them to make it.

Projecting this stuff is like doing a science experiment with very few controls and hundreds of variables. It's educated guesswork at best right now.

Last edited by Mr. Slippery; 10-08-18 at 06:33 PM.
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  #39  
Old 10-12-18, 12:35 PM
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Big game with Manchester vs. Orrville tonight.

After this weekend it will still be messy I think given what's left on some team's schedules.
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  #40  
Old 10-12-18, 12:37 PM
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Gilmour's CJ Charleston after 7 games:

1540 yards rushing
30 TD's

Who else in this region is tearing em up this season?
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  #41  
Old 10-12-18, 12:40 PM
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I think this is by far the worst region in D5 and none of the teams have a shot at winning a state title. South Range and CCC are the best two teams and they won't even make the playoffs. Wide open IMO.
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  #42  
Old 10-12-18, 12:48 PM
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I think this is by far the worst region in D5 and none of the teams have a shot at winning a state title. South Range and CCC are the best two teams and they won't even make the playoffs. Wide open IMO.
I agree that it's the worst D5 region in terms of having no teams that will contend for the state title. It probably has been the weakest DV region since the start of the 2015 season. Having Ursuline in the region in 2014 (the 1st year of the 7-division format) gave it some added credibility.

However, I'm not sold that South Range and CCC are the 2 best teams in the region. Both have their flaws. Toughest schedules? Probably. I think Orrville is for real, and I don't think LaBrae is bad either. Gilmour's RB is a great athlete, but they haven't played anyone. We'll see what Manchester has tonight when they host Orrville.

CCC made a great showing against Perry and played Strongsville tough for 3 quarters, but it's hard to feel sorry for them if they don't make it after the performance they had against a rather flawed New Philly team and not being able to pull out the win at South Range.
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  #43  
Old 10-12-18, 01:10 PM
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I wouldn’t sleep on Labrae. They haven’t played anyone yet of note, but they got a big game against Girard next week. If they beat the Indians we can put them in the for real category. They look the part and have some really talented athletes
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  #44  
Old 10-12-18, 01:15 PM
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Originally Posted by Mr. Slippery View Post
I agree that it's the worst D5 region in terms of having no teams that will contend for the state title. It probably has been the weakest DV region since the start of the 2015 season. Having Ursuline in the region in 2014 (the 1st year of the 7-division format) gave it some added credibility.

However, I'm not sold that South Range and CCC are the 2 best teams in the region. Both have their flaws. Toughest schedules? Probably. I think Orrville is for real, and I don't think LaBrae is bad either. Gilmour's RB is a great athlete, but they haven't played anyone. We'll see what Manchester has tonight when they host Orrville.

CCC made a great showing against Perry and played Strongsville tough for 3 quarters, but it's hard to feel sorry for them if they don't make it after the performance they had against a rather flawed New Philly team and not being able to pull out the win at South Range.
The move to 7 divisions really hurt this region and stacked D6. Kirtland, Norwayne, Rootstown, Garaway, Liberty were all just barely bumped down to D6, and a lot of the former D6 playoff schools (Mogadore, Western Reserve, McDonald, Springfield) made the cut as well, leaving D5 and D7 NE regions very shallow
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  #45  
Old 10-12-18, 01:21 PM
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Originally Posted by Mr. Slippery View Post
I agree that it's the worst D5 region in terms of having no teams that will contend for the state title. It probably has been the weakest DV region since the start of the 2015 season. Having Ursuline in the region in 2014 (the 1st year of the 7-division format) gave it some added credibility.

However, I'm not sold that South Range and CCC are the 2 best teams in the region. Both have their flaws. Toughest schedules? Probably. I think Orrville is for real, and I don't think LaBrae is bad either. Gilmour's RB is a great athlete, but they haven't played anyone. We'll see what Manchester has tonight when they host Orrville.

CCC made a great showing against Perry and played Strongsville tough for 3 quarters, but it's hard to feel sorry for them if they don't make it after the performance they had against a rather flawed New Philly team and not being able to pull out the win at South Range.

Slip you are not really wrong about any of this.



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  #46  
Old 10-12-18, 01:27 PM
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Just thinking a bit.....

Is it better to ....play a brutal schedule, 50/50 chance of not getting in playoffs(or less) and have many injured players

Or

Play a weak schedule, get in playoffs for sure and have very minimal injuries?

As an old coach and as a father watching HS boys play I can tell you I have seen both sides of this.

Rarely does the 3rd option happen where you dominate playing tough playoff ready schedule and stay healthy at D5 anymore....hardly any of these teams have enough players on the roster. Some of he teams in this region don’t even dress 30 guys grades 9-12.




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  #47  
Old 10-12-18, 01:30 PM
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Just thinking a bit.....

Is it better to ....play a brutal schedule, 50/50 chance of not getting in playoffs(or less) and have many injured players

Or

Play a weak schedule, get in playoffs for sure and have very minimal injuries?

As an old coach and as a father watching HS boys play I can tell you I have seen both sides of this.

Rarely does the 3rd option happen where you dominate playing tough playoff ready schedule and stay healthy at D5 anymore....hardly any of these teams have enough players on the roster. Some of he teams in this region don’t even dress 30 guys grades 9-12.




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I agree. Some mix of a few tough opponents with some very winnable games is probably the answer. Down here is Southwest Ohio, there used to be several small school teams with Freshmen teams. Now they are struggling to even field JV teams (with the exception of the MAC schools). At D5, I think you are better off just making it in to the playoffs and then see what happens.
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  #48  
Old 10-12-18, 01:43 PM
kingpin2010 kingpin2010 is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Over The Hills View Post
Just thinking a bit.....

Is it better to ....play a brutal schedule, 50/50 chance of not getting in playoffs(or less) and have many injured players

Or

Play a weak schedule, get in playoffs for sure and have very minimal injuries?

As an old coach and as a father watching HS boys play I can tell you I have seen both sides of this.

Rarely does the 3rd option happen where you dominate playing tough playoff ready schedule and stay healthy at D5 anymore....hardly any of these teams have enough players on the roster. Some of he teams in this region don’t even dress 30 guys grades 9-12.




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I think at this level you want a mix. Probably about 3 “marquee” games against really tough opponents, a few against solid but not great opponents, then 1 or 2 cupcakes to fine tune things, get guys healthy, get younger guys in etc.
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  #49  
Old 10-12-18, 04:23 PM
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But how do you know when you schedule the games (sometimes years in advance) what the opponents will bring? I am sure that is a dilemma many AD's have.
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Old 10-12-18, 04:42 PM
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Not a playoff prediction just who I see as the best teams right now

Orrville
LaBrae
Gilmour
S Range
CCC
Manchester
Crestview
Sandy Valley
Wickliffe
Garfield
also Beachwood, Warrensville Hts, Chippewa, Tuslaw
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  #51  
Old 10-12-18, 09:07 PM
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I agree that it's the worst D5 region in terms of having no teams that will contend for the state title. It probably has been the weakest DV region since the start of the 2015 season. Having Ursuline in the region in 2014 (the 1st year of the 7-division format) gave it some added credibility.

However, I'm not sold that South Range and CCC are the 2 best teams in the region. Both have their flaws. Toughest schedules? Probably. I think Orrville is for real, and I don't think LaBrae is bad either. Gilmour's RB is a great athlete, but they haven't played anyone. We'll see what Manchester has tonight when they host Orrville.

CCC made a great showing against Perry and played Strongsville tough for 3 quarters, but it's hard to feel sorry for them if they don't make it after the performance they had against a rather flawed New Philly team and not being able to pull out the win at South Range.
Pump the brakes. Manchester let everyone know tonight that they're still around. 67-31 win over Orrville.
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  #52  
Old 10-12-18, 09:11 PM
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Pump the brakes. Manchester let everyone know they're still around tonight. 67-31 win over Orrville.
Holy smokes!

Gonna be some fun playoff games in R17 this year.
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  #53  
Old 10-12-18, 11:50 PM
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I think at this level you want a mix. Probably about 3 “marquee” games against really tough opponents, a few against solid but not great opponents, then 1 or 2 cupcakes to fine tune things, get guys healthy, get younger guys in etc.
Problem with South Range is that they are playing an independent schedule and they are a victim of their own success. With most area schools playing in leagues the options are limited, and then a lot of local schools don't want to play South Range. Last week, Garfield Heights was the only school that they could get to play them. Not the most desirable opponent since GH is a D2 school, but what choice do you have? Schedule an out of state opponent or a Canadian team?
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  #54  
Old 10-13-18, 12:07 AM
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I wouldn't count out Crestview in this region. They have 0 juniors on this year's team so early on they struggled in areas as the sophomores were learning. They also moved Dylan Huff from WR to QB as he is their best athlete and it gives him way more touches. They've played a D2, 2 D3s, and 2 D4s. That could also help come playoff time.
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  #55  
Old 10-13-18, 03:26 PM
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I believe the top 6 teams are all in seedings will flop around the next two weeks. Labrae and Manchester are the two favorites to win the region. Despite Orvilles loss last night they are the darkhorse. Gilmour has the best player in the region but wont win it. 4 teams fighting for two spots with Sandy Valley almost locked in. South Range needs to win this week and Cleveland jfk to beat john hay if they do they will be that 8th team if they don't it opens it up for teams like Beechwood,Garfield and Tuslaw. Tuslaw needs to beat Northwest which in my opinion is a 50/50 game. If they don't then Beechwood needs to beat Orange and Chagrin Falls. Which I don't think they will get either of them but the better chance is Chagrin. Garfield has Rootstown and Southeast . Garfield isn't going to beat Rootstown but if they do it looks like they will be the 8th team. They have a 50/50 shot Week 10 if they win that they would be in the driver seat depending on second level points. If they don't win that then it will come back around to South range getting in. I don't think Grand Valley will have enough second level points even if they beat Conneaut after last night's loss to Windham. Chippewa would have to pull off a huge upset against Norwayne to even be considered. Those are just my thoughts all things considered I think south range will be the 8th team in
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  #56  
Old 10-13-18, 03:44 PM
pcbuck pcbuck is offline
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The was a heart breaking loss for Grand Valley yesterday against Windham. They were up 27-14 with 5 minutes to go.
That loss gave Garfield some playoff hopes even if they lose to Rootstown
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  #57  
Old 10-13-18, 04:39 PM
Jaws31 Jaws31 is offline
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Having seen Labrae, Crestview and now Gilmour up close and personal here are a few observations. Both Crestview and Labrae are on a whole different level than Gilmour. Labrae would easily put a running clock on the Lancers.

Crestview is struggling a bit right now with injuries as both starting RBs are out with broken collarbones last I heard and that might hurt them going into the playoffs.

Manchester is a team to watch out for as they have the best RB in the region and it isn't even close.

I see it coming down to Manchester and Labrae with Labrae eking out the win.
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  #58  
Old 10-13-18, 05:47 PM
fridayfootball fridayfootball is offline
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Labrae vs Manchester would be a must see matchup
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  #59  
Old 10-13-18, 10:05 PM
wghfan wghfan is offline
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LaBrae vs Girard is going to be a great game in our area this week. Looking forward to this one
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  #60  
Old 10-16-18, 12:21 PM
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Mr. Slippery Mr. Slippery is offline
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Much uncertainty still surrounds the 8th qualifier:

Projections after 8 weeks:
1. Manchester, 8-2, 21.9838
2. Orrville, 8-2, 19.2000
3. LaBrae, 9-1, 17.7500
4. Gilmour Academy, 10-0, 17.6490
5. Wickliffe, 8-2, 15.3867
6. Sandy Valley, 9-1, 15.000
7. South Range, 6-4, 14.8702
8. Crestview, 5-4, 14.0667
9. Garfield, 6-4, 11.8000
10. Tuslaw, 5-5, 10.5500
11. Chippewa, 6-4, 9.6000
12. Beachwood, 6-4, 9.1106
13. Grand Valley, 7-3, 8.5500

If South Range loses to St. Clairsville, the 8th spot is going to be a free-for-all. Crestview could end up hosting with a win over Indian Creek, but they are much more in the playoffs right now than South Range since my current projection does not have Crestview winning their final 2 games.

I didn't carry out full calculations on any teams not listed above. Teams below the 13th spot right now are there because either they're not winning, or the teams they've beaten aren't winning. I don't expect those themes to make a complete reversal these final 2 weeks.

Week 9 games to watch:
Manchester at Loudonville
LaBrae at Girard
Crestview at Indian Creek
Sandy Valley vs. Buckeye Trail
Garfield at Rootstown
Tuslaw vs. Northwest
Beachwood at Chagrin Falls
South Range vs. St. Clairsville
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