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  #31  
Old 11-08-18, 12:49 PM
Arrogate Arrogate is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gview View Post
HAHAHAHA!!!!

I cannot stand mathematical formula's to figure out rankings. Some guy named Maher (sp?) does it for soccer, and while I can appreciate the hard work that goes into it there are too many issues with a formula.

Pitt went from Not Raked to #12 with a 5-4 record, did they beat Clemson, WTF?
To be fair you cant compare the BCS system to this.

Knowing what I know about "computer gamblers" in horse racing, to discount all models is probably a bad move.
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  #32  
Old 11-08-18, 01:40 PM
Max Grumbleman Max Grumbleman is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Taco MacArthur View Post
Your rankings are absolute garbage. LSU moves up after losing? LSU is above Alabama? Clemson falls 5 spots after demolishing Louisville? Duke is #8 with three losses to average teams? WVU moves from unranked to #14 because they beat an average Texas team? Pitt ranked behind Duke, despite beating Duke? Georgia stays at 5 despite easily beating a ranked Kentucky team? OSU behind Penn State despite beating them? The whole thing is trash.
The system is holistic, not week-to-week. And understand the rankings will change dramatically over the final 4 weeks of the season.

To address each of your concerns:

- LSU has played a much stronger schedule than Alabama and is rewarded for it, despite the loss. That said, it is unlikely they will maintain their lead beyond this week.

- Clemson's strength of schedule took significant blows when Texas A&M and Syracuse dropped out of the rankings.

- WVU improved to 39 points by gaining 16 points for their win over Texas (15 points for a win over #21 + 1 point for it being an away win) and not having their SOS damaged. In week 10, they were just outside the Top 25 with 23 points (25th held 25 points).

- Pitt beating Duke does not matter beyond the points they earn for the victory, except as a tiebreaker were they to hold the same number of points.

- Duke has played a better schedule than you give them credit for, and have won 4 games on the road against P5 teams with at least a .500 record (@Northwestern, @Baylor, @Georgia Tech, @Miami) - the .500 record requirement is not arbitrary, it is rooted in the requirement for bowl eligibility. They also hold wins over Army, Pitt, and Virginia, all of whom are ranked. Is it surprising to see them ranked as highly as they are? YES! Of course! But that is where they belong for Week 11.

- Georgia gained 11 points. That means more than their lack of movement in the rankings. Test your own logic: where were they supposed to go? Above Notre Dame? LSU, whom they lost to? Were they unfairly jumped by Michigan and Alabama?

- Ohio State's schedule is hurting them badly; to this point, Penn State has played a tougher schedule.


I appreciate any comments or suggestions for improvement anyone may have. I am always looking to make adjustments!
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  #33  
Old 11-08-18, 01:48 PM
Taco MacArthur Taco MacArthur is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Max Grumbleman View Post
The system is holistic, not week-to-week. And understand the rankings will change dramatically over the final 4 weeks of the season.

To address each of your concerns:

- LSU has played a much stronger schedule than Alabama and is rewarded for it, despite the loss. That said, it is unlikely they will maintain their lead beyond this week.

- Clemson's strength of schedule took significant blows when Texas A&M and Syracuse dropped out of the rankings.

- WVU improved to 39 points by gaining 16 points for their win over Texas (15 points for a win over #21 + 1 point for it being an away win) and not having their SOS damaged. In week 10, they were just outside the Top 25 with 23 points (25th held 25 points).

- Pitt beating Duke does not matter beyond the points they earn for the victory, except as a tiebreaker were they to hold the same number of points.

- Duke has played a better schedule than you give them credit for, and have won 4 games on the road against P5 teams with at least a .500 record (@Northwestern, @Baylor, @Georgia Tech, @Miami) - the .500 record requirement is not arbitrary, it is rooted in the requirement for bowl eligibility. They also hold wins over Army, Pitt, and Virginia, all of whom are ranked. Is it surprising to see them ranked as highly as they are? YES! Of course! But that is where they belong for Week 11.

- Georgia gained 11 points. That means more than their lack of movement in the rankings. Test your own logic: where were they supposed to go? Above Notre Dame? LSU, whom they lost to? Were they unfairly jumped by Michigan and Alabama?

- Ohio State's schedule is hurting them badly; to this point, Penn State has played a tougher schedule.


I appreciate any comments or suggestions for improvement anyone may have. I am always looking to make adjustments!
Your explanation doesn't make your ranking system any less trash. It's awful. Significantly worse than what the BCS, CFP committee, AP or coaches put out. My suggestion is stop relying so heavily on SOS while discounting head to head matchups. Also, don't quit your day job.
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  #34  
Old 11-08-18, 01:58 PM
Arrogate Arrogate is offline
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Not sure if you missed my posts on the last page bc they were the last two posts at the bottom of the page, they often get over looked. Was wondering what your thoughts were...
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  #35  
Old 11-08-18, 01:59 PM
Max Grumbleman Max Grumbleman is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Arrogate View Post
Duke, Pitt, Buffalo, and Army are all in the top 15. Might want to look at tweaking it in the off season.
I've considered basing some points on the win% of teams above .500. That may reduce the likelihood of these sorts of (seemingly) inappropriately ranked teams.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Arrogate View Post
Does LSU still get top 10 points for beating a now unranked Miami? What about them getting top 10 points for beating Auburn? It appears they do.
No, it is not a system where rank is frozen once a game has been played.

LSU is receiving 10 points for their win over Miami and 16 points for Auburn. A Top 10 victory would earn them 25 points.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Arrogate View Post
You weight your wins/losses based on opponents rankings and where they are ranked. Do you use your rankings to determine the weight or do you use AP/Coaches/CFP Committee rankings? For example would you get a top 15 weight for beating Buffalo bc they are ranked in your formula but not the AP?
My rankings do not begin until after Week 7. Up to that point, I simply collect the wins and losses.

I think you're wondering how I arrive at my rankings without a pre-season ranking. What I do is rank with the "raw numbers" first, which is simply points for wins and losses without any modifiers. Then I input the rankings based on that, and they automatically update throughout the entire spreadsheet from the "Teams" page. As you probably guess, this creates a lot of chaos with teams moving all over the place, and you're right. I continue to the process of sorting them ranking and inputting until it "settles" - I eventually reach a point where there is no more movement. This probably takes about 15 minutes.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Arrogate View Post
If you use your rankings how do you start the year with determining weights for top 25 wins? Do you use the AP at first and then switch to yours later at a different week? If that is the case the lack of consistency creates a problem throughout the season.
I do not use any outside rankings.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Arrogate View Post
I would look into trying to reevaluate wins and losses each week, so the point total is a dynamic number where it can change week to week based on improvements from your prior opponents and vice versa. For LSU to still get top 10 points for beating Auburn and Miami is one design flaw. Same thing goes for if a team lost/beat a team like UK who wasnt ranked until like week 4. Does Florida get hit the same with losing to an unranked team at the time they played, when UK is now top 15?

Not criticizing but trying to offer suggestions bc I like your idea of the tiered relegation system, weighted wins/losses etc.
This is exactly that happens, and why there is so much fluctuation week to week and how a team can jump from NR to Top 15 and back down again.

No, criticism is good! I am always looking to make this better.
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  #36  
Old 11-08-18, 02:03 PM
Arrogate Arrogate is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Max Grumbleman View Post
I've considered basing some points on the win% of teams above .500. That may reduce the likelihood of these sorts of (seemingly) inappropriately ranked teams.



No, it is not a system where rank is frozen once a game has been played.

LSU is receiving 10 points for their win over Miami and 16 points for Auburn. A Top 10 victory would earn them 25 points.



My rankings do not begin until after Week 8. Up to that point, I simply collect the wins and losses.

I think you're wondering how I arrive at my rankings without a pre-season ranking. What I do is rank with the "raw numbers" first, which is simply points for wins and losses without any modifiers. Then I input the rankings based on that, and they automatically update throughout the entire spreadsheet from the "Teams" page. As you probably guess, this creates a lot of chaos with teams moving all over the place, and you're right. I continue to the process of sorting them ranking and inputting until it "settles" - I eventually reach a point where there is no more movement. This probably takes about 15 minutes.



I do not use any outside rankings.



This is exactly that happens, and why there is so much fluctuation week to week and how a team can jump from NR to Top 15 and back down again.

No, criticism is good! I am always looking to make this better.
Appreciate the responses. As i said not trying to tear you down, but curios/would like to help.
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  #37  
Old 11-08-18, 02:16 PM
Max Grumbleman Max Grumbleman is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Arrogate View Post
I also see you get points for a win over an unranked p5 team with a record better than .500. Do you go back to check if those teams end up with a +.500 record and do you adjust the points? And vice versa for those that maybe had a +.500 record at the time but end the season with a losing record.
The points automatically adjust within the spreadsheet. The only things I have to do manually are input the scores and sort the rankings.

BTW, if there are any Excel wizards here who would know how to get the spreadsheet to complete the rankings on its own, that would great!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Arrogate View Post
I would maybe look at trying to find a way to weight games against teams that are not in the top 25. You start out weighing teams by groups of 5 spots in the polls but 25+ and up it is all the same weight essentially. A team you beat who is lets say ranked 30 counts the same as a team who is ranked 60th (assuming both have winning records)
Wins over P5 =>.500 teams earn 10 points, wins over similar G5 earn 7. But, I'll admit this may need tweaking. As I said before, I have been considering modifying points based on opponents' win%.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Arrogate View Post
There are other "improvements"/things to look at if you have an open mind to it. If not I will quit rambling. Again this shouldnt be read as demeaning or condescending towards you, just suggestions/questions to help improve your system.
I am open to any suggestions!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Arrogate View Post
Doing a system like this would take up a lot of time and I assume this is a hobby and you have time constraints. Going back to check and readjust point totals would involve a lot more work. Taking into account the time constraints, this being a hobby, and trying to find a quick and easy formula, you did OK IMO.
The most time consuming part of it was developing the spreadsheet itself. Getting the formulas right and making sure they work properly can be a real pain in the . Plus, a page for every FBS team. But spread out over the long off-season makes it not bad at all. Every once in a while I get the time and energy to plow through a bunch of it. During the season, I can input all the scores and sort the rankings in about 2 hours, which are typically spread out Sun-Wed. I like to have it done before the Thursday games.
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  #38  
Old 11-08-18, 02:24 PM
Max Grumbleman Max Grumbleman is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Taco MacArthur View Post
Your explanation doesn't make your ranking system any less trash. It's awful. Significantly worse than what the BCS, CFP committee, AP or coaches put out. My suggestion is stop relying so heavily on SOS while discounting head to head matchups. Also, don't quit your day job.
Head to head simply cannot matter that much in a points-based system. In all such systems, it is a tiebreaker.
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  #39  
Old 11-08-18, 03:14 PM
Gview Gview is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Arrogate View Post
To be fair you cant compare the BCS system to this.

Knowing what I know about "computer gamblers" in horse racing, to discount all models is probably a bad move.
Not comparing this to anything, but to place a 5-4 team at #12 after being not ranked, again WTF?

No way I can it take it seriously.
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  #40  
Old 11-09-18, 08:30 AM
Zezzo! Zezzo! is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Max Grumbleman View Post
Hey I did this stuff with my marbles when I was kid in my imaginary world!
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  #41  
Old 11-09-18, 01:03 PM
nutsnbolts nutsnbolts is offline
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I like some of your thoughts. Looks to me like more wieght for wins would help. It is EXTREMELY hard to go undefeated. Only four teams listed with zeros in the L column.
Subtract 5 points for every loss?
Multiply win percentage times published points to come up with 'final' points?
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  #42  
Old 11-13-18, 09:12 PM
Crusaders Crusaders is offline
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1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Notre Dame
4. Michigan
5. Georgia
6. Oklahoma
7. LSU
8. Washington State
9. West Virginia
10. Ohio State
11. UCF
12. Syracuse
13. Florida
14. Penn State
15. Texas
16. Iowa State
17. Kentucky
18. Washington
19. Utah
20. Boston College
21. Mississippi State
22. Northwestern
23. Utah State
24. Cincinnati
25. Boise State
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  #43  
Old 11-14-18, 06:00 PM
Neopolitan Neopolitan is offline
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Clemson loses in the ACC title game
Alabama loses to Georgia in the SEC title game
Georgia wins out
Notre Dame loses once to Syracuse
Michigan wins out
Oklahoma wins out
Wash State wins out

What 4 teams get in?
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  #44  
Old 11-14-18, 06:38 PM
Crusaders Crusaders is offline
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Michigan, Georgia, Oklahoma, Alabama
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  #45  
Old 11-14-18, 06:53 PM
Neopolitan Neopolitan is offline
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You think 1 loss Michigan would get in over 1 loss Notre Dame?(not disagreeing, that was the one I was debating between)
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  #46  
Old 11-14-18, 07:00 PM
FirestoneFan FirestoneFan is online now
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Ohio State wins out
Clemson loses the ACC Title game
Alabama loses to Auburn or the SEC title game
Notre Dame loses to Syracuse
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  #47  
Old 11-14-18, 07:07 PM
ronnie mund ronnie mund is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Neopolitan View Post
You think 1 loss Michigan would get in over 1 loss Notre Dame?(not disagreeing, that was the one I was debating between)
It'd be a tough call. Notre Dame has the head-to-head, but Michigan has the tougher schedule and would have more quality wins, arguably(and according to Sagarin, for whatever that is worth), and a conference championship.

Personally I would keep ND out just because they refuse to join a conference.
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  #48  
Old 11-14-18, 09:58 PM
adselder09 adselder09 is offline
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For those that want the playoffs expanded, the best case scenario is Georgia beats Bama in the SEC Title game, Clemson wins out and Notre Dame wins out. In the scenario, I would guess the committee takes those four: #1 Clemson, #2 Notre Dame, #3 Georgia, #4 Bama - which would leave out the B1G (1-loss Michigan or Ohio State) Big XII (1-loss Oklahoma or 1-loss WVU) and Pac 12 (1-loss Wazzu), plus a likely undefeated UCF again. Obviously no one wants to see two SEC teams in again, but when 3 Power conferences get their 1-loss champions left out, that's when changes will be brought to the table.
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  #49  
Old 11-14-18, 10:06 PM
Michael Bluth Michael Bluth is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Neopolitan View Post
You think 1 loss Michigan would get in over 1 loss Notre Dame?(not disagreeing, that was the one I was debating between)
People would hate it but I think they probably would, especially if the loss comes to Syracuse (thus, not getting that extra ďtop 25Ē win)
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  #50  
Old 11-14-18, 11:31 PM
darbydavidsonfan darbydavidsonfan is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by adselder09 View Post
For those that want the playoffs expanded, the best case scenario is Georgia beats Bama in the SEC Title game, Clemson wins out and Notre Dame wins out. In the scenario, I would guess the committee takes those four: #1 Clemson, #2 Notre Dame, #3 Georgia, #4 Bama - which would leave out the B1G (1-loss Michigan or Ohio State) Big XII (1-loss Oklahoma or 1-loss WVU) and Pac 12 (1-loss Wazzu), plus a likely undefeated UCF again. Obviously no one wants to see two SEC teams in again, but when 3 Power conferences get their 1-loss champions left out, that's when changes will be brought to the table.
I completely agree. This is the exact scenario Iím rooting for. Chaos baby!
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  #51  
Old 11-15-18, 01:35 PM
Omar Omar is offline
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Originally Posted by Neopolitan View Post
You think 1 loss Michigan would get in over 1 loss Notre Dame?(not disagreeing, that was the one I was debating between)
Yes. I’m not sure if that’s entirely fair, but the media has been hyping Michigan more than any team other than Bama. As a ND fan, I’m a bit annoyed how the talking heads conveniently leave out ND won that game w/o Book as the starter and their best RB, Williams, suspended.
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  #52  
Old 11-17-18, 01:59 PM
Max Grumbleman Max Grumbleman is offline
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Max's Point System Rankings Week 12

Better late than never!



Full file: https://www.dropbox.com/s/0lxck05o66...2018.xlsx?dl=0
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  #53  
Old 11-17-18, 02:18 PM
eastisbest eastisbest is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Omar View Post
Yes. Iím not sure if thatís entirely fair, but the media has been hyping Michigan more than any team other than Bama. As a ND fan, Iím a bit annoyed how the talking heads conveniently leave out ND won that game w/o Book as the starter and their best RB, Williams, suspended.

Harbough factor. He's quotable. Hard to believe anyone can get media hyped quicker for less than ND but since Harbaugh has been at UM, I'd say they qualify. Both could be legit though this year.
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  #54  
Old 11-17-18, 09:41 PM
Omar Omar is offline
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Originally Posted by eastisbest View Post
Harbough factor. He's quotable. Hard to believe anyone can get media hyped quicker for less than ND but since Harbaugh has been at UM, I'd say they qualify. Both could be legit though this year.
ND is a legit playoff team, but theyíre not a threat to win it all. They might be able to give Clemson a game but their DL will be a nightmare matchup vs NDís OL. NDís Defense can make it a game, theyíve got 3 NFL quality edge rushers, 2 stud LBs who are great vs the run and capable in cvg, and a lockdown Corner.
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  #55  
Old 11-19-18, 12:30 PM
cabezadecaballo cabezadecaballo is offline
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This would be a great year for UCF to get in there, get waxed, and then end the nonsense of non-power five schools getting into the CFP.
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  #56  
Old 11-19-18, 12:50 PM
Omar Omar is offline
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Originally Posted by cabezadecaballo View Post
This would be a great year for UCF to get in there, get waxed, and then end the nonsense of non-power five schools getting into the CFP.
If the Committee is smart, they’ll match them up with UGA. Unlike Auburn, they won’t be crushed mentally by a loss in the SEC Title game and they’ll come ready to play.

Last edited by Omar; 11-19-18 at 01:19 PM..
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  #57  
Old 11-19-18, 12:52 PM
14Red 14Red is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Max Grumbleman View Post

- Ohio State's schedule is hurting them badly; to this point, Penn State has played a tougher schedule.

Ohio State's play on the field is hurting them badly. In college football, and win isn't just a win. You have to judge each game accordingly. Saturday for Ohio State had to be a dagger for the season for them from a playoff standpoint. Even if they beat Michigan and Northwestern, there is no way you can put them in the playoff. They have sleptwalked through most of the last 3 games, hungover from the Purdue game.
The Buckeyes best win is Penn State, who has 3 losses, and TCU, who has 6 losses!!
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  #58  
Old 11-20-18, 04:17 PM
Max Grumbleman Max Grumbleman is offline
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Originally Posted by 14Red View Post
Ohio State's play on the field is hurting them badly. In college football, and win isn't just a win. You have to judge each game accordingly. Saturday for Ohio State had to be a dagger for the season for them from a playoff standpoint. Even if they beat Michigan and Northwestern, there is no way you can put them in the playoff. They have sleptwalked through most of the last 3 games, hungover from the Purdue game.
The Buckeyes best win is Penn State, who has 3 losses, and TCU, who has 6 losses!!
I agree! Ohio State has been less than impressive this season! But I'm also confused. Why did you post this as a response to my post explaining my rankings??!
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  #59  
Old 11-20-18, 07:15 PM
Crusaders Crusaders is offline
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1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Notre Dame
4. Michigan
5. Georgia
6. Oklahoma
7. LSU
8. Washington State
9. UCF
10. Ohio State
11. Florida
12. Penn State
13. West Virginia
14. Texas
15. Kentucky
16. Washington
17. Utah
18. Mississippi State
19. Northwestern
20. Syracuse
21. Utah State
22. Texas A&M
23. Boise State
24. Pittsburgh
25. Iowa State
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  #60  
Old 11-20-18, 10:57 PM
brianwr112 brianwr112 is offline
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I think this weeks rankings have officially shut the door on Ohio States Playoff chances. I really don't see an avenue where they can jump into the top 4. A win vs Michigan would move them up maybe a few spots but beating Northwestern wouldn't move the needle enough to get them in.
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