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  #31  
Old 07-07-19, 05:33 PM
Harrycrane Harrycrane is offline
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www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2019-the-longest


About to break records for the longest expansion, the U.S. economy sure looks like an asset for a president gearing up to seek re-election.
“If voters went to the ballot box today, it would be the strongest economy in U.S. election history,” said Justin Waring, an investment strategist at UBS in New York.
Unemployment is close to a half-century low and inflation is so subdued that some have pronounced it dead. The two gauges added together are known as the “misery index.” Waring, who has crunched those numbers, says they show Americans are less miserable than they’ve ever been.
Which is exactly what President Donald Trump’s been telling them.


Trump is taking credit for the economy’s performance, and he’s getting strong approval ratings on the issue right now. That doesn’t mean it will automatically carry him to a second term. Other issues energize voters too, while the decade-long run of economic growth could come to an end before election day, still more than a year off.
And even if it doesn’t, there are reasons why this expansion may lack oomph at the ballot box—as the Democrats found out in 2016.
For starters, the rate of growth has been dismal.

n the decade through March 2019, output increased a total of 25%. Look at all the possible 10-year periods since World War II, even the ones that include recessions, and four-fifths of them posted better numbers.


Workers’ paychecks have also been growing slowly by past standards, and the portion of the national income that goes to wage-earners—known as the labor share—hasn’t recovered from the historic lows it reached after the financial crisis.
Trump likes to point out that the economy has accelerated on his watch. And economists
o credit the president’s policies—lower taxes, plus an increase in government spending agreed with Congress—for faster growth rates starting in 2018.

Temporary Boost’
The question is: Can it last? The administration predicts that the economy can keep expanding at 3 %. But at the Federal Reserve, for example, none of the 17 policy makers expect growth next year to be faster than 2.2 %.
Skeptics say Trump has engineered a government-led sugar rush—loosening the purse strings, and saddling America with bigger budget deficits, without delivering the promised surge in business investment that would translate into lasting gains.

Tax cuts “provided a temporary boost to growth that is already fading,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics Inc. “There’s been no increase in long-term trend growth.”
A number of economists disagree. Stephen Stanley at Amherst Pierpont Securities LLC says Trump’s tax breaks for business, plus his bonfire of red tape, have meaningfully increased the economy’s capacity to grow in the long run. He acknowledges, though, that the jury will still be out on that question when voters go to the polls next year.

Trump’s trade war with China, which most economists say is a near-term threat to U.S. growth, is another likely campaign issue in 2020. Joe Biden, vice president in the Obama administration and the early frontrunner among Democrats, has attacked Trump for hurting American business with his erratic use of tariffs.
Trump inherited a strong economy, Biden told a rally in Philadelphia last month, and “just like everything else he’s been given in his life, he’s in the process of squandering that.”

‘Major Push’
Still, many Democrats agree on the need for a tough approach to China. And Stanley says there’s plenty of time for Trump to resolve the dispute in a way that will give the economy—and his re-election prospects—a big boost.
“If the administration is able to deliver any kind of deal with China, that is going to be a major push for the campaign,” he said. Companies have put plans on hold amid the trade uncertainty so there is "a lot of pent up investment demand."


Another angle of attack for Trump’s challengers is inequality. Economic growth numbers are aggregates, and say nothing about who benefited. Democrats to Biden’s left, like Senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, are especially vocal in arguing that too many Americans have been left out of the recovery.

Most economists say Trump’s tax cuts were skewed toward the rich. But the uneven distribution of income was already a feature of the expansion when Obama was president.
That continuity is true for many of the more upbeat trends in the economy too—like the jobs numbers often celebrated by Trump. The decline in unemployment hardly seemed to alter with the change in president, though Trump supporters point out that it’s gone on for longer than many economists thought was possible.
n the end, some analysts say, the main reason why this expansion has lasted so long isn’t due to policies under either administration. It’s simply a function of the severity of the recession that hit the U.S. between 2007 and 2009.

In the end, some analysts say, the main reason why this expansion has lasted so long isn’t due to policies under either administration. It’s simply a function of the severity of the recession that hit the U.S. between 2007 and 2009.
That’s the view of Jeffrey Frankel. A Harvard professor, he’s also a member of the committee at the National Bureau of Economic Research that rules on when recessions began and ended—providing the official dating for American business cycles.
After the financial crisis, he said, “the economy had fallen so far below its potential that it took many years to climb it's way out of the hole.


.
  #32  
Old 07-07-19, 05:56 PM
winbypin winbypin is offline
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Tldr
  #33  
Old 07-07-19, 08:50 PM
y2h y2h is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Harrycrane View Post
Yes it CONTINUES to roll as it was doing BEFORE Trump got there was my point . Trump didn't inherit any mess at all he inherited a growing thriving economy and he is the first to cut corporate taxes with full employment and a growing economy EVER.

He now wants to LOWER intertest rates when the economy is the best in thw world and the best anyone has ever seen? Hmm funny , HE WAS WHINING that interest rates were TOO LOW , under the failing Obama economy ? He was begging the fed to RAISE THEM THEN? Yes he is a selfless public servant alright. Roger Stone next in line to do Prison time ? Same article? No this one is new and accurate.
The economy was stagnant under "1% is the new normal" "it'll take a magic wand to bring back jobs" Obama.

The economy expanded because it had nowhere to go but up, it wasnt due to Obama policy.
  #34  
Old 07-08-19, 01:23 AM
frecriss frecriss is offline
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Originally Posted by Harrycrane View Post
I do and it is abundantly clear that Trump has no idea .
No, I don't think you do.
  #35  
Old 07-08-19, 07:37 AM
Taco MacArthur Taco MacArthur is offline
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Originally Posted by Harrycrane View Post
I do and it is abundantly clear that Trump has no idea . But why don't you explain it for everyone else who might not know?
Finished your post, harry.
  #36  
Old 07-08-19, 08:24 AM
cabezadecaballo cabezadecaballo is offline
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Watching Sparky try and talk Econ rocks pretty hard.
lol
  #37  
Old 07-08-19, 08:25 AM
cabezadecaballo cabezadecaballo is offline
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tldr
+1
  #38  
Old 07-08-19, 08:25 AM
cabezadecaballo cabezadecaballo is offline
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The economy was stagnant under "1% is the new normal" "it'll take a magic wand to bring back jobs" Obama.

The economy expanded because it had nowhere to go but up, it wasnt due to Obama policy.
this
  #39  
Old 07-08-19, 09:31 AM
2manyBats 2manyBats is offline
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New York Times Article April 27, 2014

Recovery Has Created Far More Low-Wage Jobs Than Better-Paid Ones

The deep recession wiped out primarily high-wage and middle-wage jobs. Yet the strongest employment growth during the sluggish recovery has been in low-wage work, at places like strip malls and fast-food restaurants.

In essence, the poor economy has replaced good jobs with bad ones. That is the conclusion of a new report from the National Employment Law Project, a research and advocacy group, analyzing employment trends four years into the recovery.

“Fast food is driving the bulk of the job growth at the low end — the job gains there are absolutely phenomenal,”


But job losses and gains have been skewed. Higher-wage industries — like accounting and legal work — shed 3.6 million positions during the recession and have added only 2.6 million positions during the recovery. But lower-wage industries lost two million jobs, then added 3.8 million.

With 10.5 million Americans still looking for work — the unemployment rate is 6.7 percent — employers feel no pressure to raise wages for those who are working. As a result, the average household’s take-home pay has declined through the recession and the recovery to $51,017 in 2012 from $55,627 in 2007, after adjusting for inflation.

With joblessness high and job gains concentrated in low-wage industries, hundreds of thousands of Americans have accepted positions that pay less than they used to make, in some cases, sliding out of the middle class and into the ranks of the working poor.


Do the Research, Obama jobs are not Comparable to Current Ones
  #40  
Old 07-08-19, 11:03 AM
nwwarrior09 nwwarrior09 is offline
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I'm too lazy to read all of the articles that have been posted, but all I think anyone really needs to know about the economy since the recession is the rapid increase in wing nut politicians on the left (i.e. socialists/Democratic socialists) over the last decade. Middle and working class people don't embrace socialist economic ideals when the economy is going well for them IMO.

I think overall job opportunities have improved over the last few years, but unless wages/wealth start to dramatically improve for middle/working class Americans relative to inflation in housing/healthcare/higher education, a Bernie Bro candidate is going to follow Trump.

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk
  #41  
Old 07-08-19, 11:08 AM
lotr10 lotr10 is offline
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Well for those who don't like GDP & jobs as an indicator of economic health how about this:


https://www.foxbusiness.com/small-bu...-50-years-nfib


During the first 2020 debate, many Democrats argued that the U.S. economy isn’t working for small business. However the leader of a major small business group says “that’s simply not true.”

“The [National Federation of Independent Business] has been doing the small business economic trend report for 45 years—and the data is in—this is the best economy for small business in 50 years. And it’s been setting records for the last two and a half years,” said NFIB CEO Juanita Duggan to FOX Business’ David Asman on “Varney & Co.”
  #42  
Old 07-08-19, 12:19 PM
frecriss frecriss is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lotr10 View Post
Well for those who don't like GDP & jobs as an indicator of economic health how about this:


https://www.foxbusiness.com/small-bu...-50-years-nfib


During the first 2020 debate, many Democrats argued that the U.S. economy isn’t working for small business. However the leader of a major small business group says “that’s simply not true.”

“The [National Federation of Independent Business] has been doing the small business economic trend report for 45 years—and the data is in—this is the best economy for small business in 50 years. And it’s been setting records for the last two and a half years,” said NFIB CEO Juanita Duggan to FOX Business’ David Asman on “Varney & Co.”
Everything Democrats say is "Simply Not True"
  #43  
Old 07-08-19, 01:48 PM
chs1971 chs1971 is offline
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Originally Posted by frecriss View Post
Everything Democrats say is "Simply Not True"
A wise person should always assume that Democrats are lying or simply do no know what they are talking about. The assumption will almost never be incorrect, and the wise person will save themselves a lot of time and aggravation.

I read that in "The Old Farmer's Almanac," which for you youngsters is kind of a beta version of the Interweb, so it must be true.

Or maybe is was Kwai Chang Caine.

Last edited by chs1971; 07-08-19 at 03:56 PM.
  #44  
Old 07-08-19, 02:01 PM
2manyBats 2manyBats is offline
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Originally Posted by y2h View Post
The economy was stagnant under "1% is the new normal" "it'll take a magic wand to bring back jobs" Obama.

The economy expanded because it had nowhere to go but up, it wasn't due to Obama policy.
True .... and then there is more

In his First Two years in Office, President Barry Obammy Increased annual federal welfare spending by One - Third going from $522 Billion to $697 Billion.

If he had such good Job Numbers, Where were these Jobs when Americans Needed them most ?
  #45  
Old 07-08-19, 02:23 PM
Harrycrane Harrycrane is offline
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Originally Posted by winbypin View Post
Tldr
I believe it’s spelled “ Twitter “
  #46  
Old 07-08-19, 02:40 PM
winbypin winbypin is offline
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Originally Posted by Harrycrane View Post
I believe it’s spelled “ Twitter “
Nope.
  #47  
Old 07-08-19, 03:44 PM
irish_buffalo irish_buffalo is offline
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Originally Posted by chs1971 View Post
Or maybe is was Kwai Chang Caine.
Remind me how he died again?
  #48  
Old 07-08-19, 04:33 PM
chs1971 chs1971 is offline
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Remind me how he died again?
An accidental death while in Bangkok filming the movie, Stretch.

Oh the irony.
  #49  
Old 07-08-19, 04:34 PM
chs1971 chs1971 is offline
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Originally Posted by Harrycrane View Post
I believe it’s spelled “ Twitter “
Of course you do.
  #50  
Old 07-08-19, 05:16 PM
Harrycrane Harrycrane is offline
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Originally Posted by chs1971 View Post
An accidental death while in Bangkok filming the movie, Stretch.

Oh the irony.
You are the biggest bore on earth. Do you have any friends?
  #51  
Old 07-08-19, 05:17 PM
Harrycrane Harrycrane is offline
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TLDR means what?
  #52  
Old 07-08-19, 05:41 PM
zeeman zeeman is offline
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TLDR means what?
Total losers Dublin residents
  #53  
Old 07-08-19, 06:08 PM
chs1971 chs1971 is offline
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Originally Posted by Harrycrane View Post
You are the biggest bore on earth. Do you have any friends?
Oh the irony.

i_b asked me a humorous rhetorical question.

I responded with an attempt at humor.

Sorry if you didn't get it.
  #54  
Old 07-08-19, 06:35 PM
winbypin winbypin is offline
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Originally Posted by Harrycrane View Post
TLDR means what?
Try Google or a similar product. Ask your kids, they can help. Or any of the Coffman football players as you creep on them during their summer workouts.
  #55  
Old 07-08-19, 08:35 PM
irish_buffalo irish_buffalo is offline
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Originally Posted by chs1971 View Post
An accidental death while in Bangkok filming the movie, Stretch.

Oh the irony.
Yes it is. Too each his own. Gotta believe he went out with a smile.

With that said the guy was a great actor. Loved him in Kill Bill(s). He got type cast and could never get away from the Kung-Fu shtick.
  #56  
Old 07-08-19, 09:44 PM
Zunardo Zunardo is offline
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Lol - or is it tldr? I keep getting them mixed up - back in the day I remember seeing ABC's ads for the TV movie pilot, and thinking the character's name was Kung Fu. Definitely a cooler name than Caine. Grasshopper was good also.
  #57  
Old 07-09-19, 03:19 PM
winbypin winbypin is offline
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TLDR means what?
figure it out yet, sparky?
  #58  
Old 07-09-19, 03:22 PM
cabezadecaballo cabezadecaballo is offline
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Total losers Dublin residents
well done
  #59  
Old 07-09-19, 03:28 PM
jmog jmog is offline
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It was originally tl;dr that way you get the proper punctuation in there, but apparently that was 1 character too long so people started dropping the ";" and just made it TLDR.

Because if you type out the whole sentence, to be properly punctuated the ";" needs to be between "L" and "D".
  #60  
Old 07-09-19, 05:38 PM
Indiandad Indiandad is offline
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Originally Posted by jmog View Post
It was originally tl;dr that way you get the proper punctuation in there, but apparently that was 1 character too long so people started dropping the ";" and just made it TLDR.

Because if you type out the whole sentence, to be properly punctuated the ";" needs to be between "L" and "D".
Nerd

 

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