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  #31  
Old 03-31-18, 08:09 AM
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UAE Derby and Florida Derby today.

Havent looked much at the UAE Derby but Mendelssohn and Gold Town look to be the favorites. Of the American based horses I would look at Reride. Mendelssohn was the impressive 2 yr old BC Juvenile Turf Champion and he was bred in Kentucky by Scat Daddy.

Will post my opinions on the Florida Derby later. I may end up looking like an idiot in that race but i might be taking a shot on some longshots.
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  #32  
Old 03-31-18, 08:45 AM
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Need to see what the figure is, but i have never ever thought a horse coming from Dubai could win the Derby. Mendelssohn has a shot. What a performance. He won by 18 lengths!

Little back story on him. He was bred in Kentucky but has primarily raced on turf and in Europe. However he is has some dirt pedigree. He is a half brother to the champion Beholder and also a half brother to one of the top sires, Into Mischief.
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  #33  
Old 03-31-18, 08:56 AM
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Figure will be huge. He ran that 3 seconds faster than Mubtaahij did a few years ago
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  #34  
Old 03-31-18, 09:04 AM
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Track record by 1.31 seconds
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  #35  
Old 03-31-18, 11:54 AM
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Pretty big speed bias as always at Meydan. Now the question how much did it help and did he beat anyone of note? I will say if he brings that race in Kentucky he will be in the mix.
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  #36  
Old 03-31-18, 11:58 AM
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Thunder Snow won the Dubai World Cup. He beat West Coast, he was on the lead the whole race. You may remember him as the horse in thr Derby last year who just bucked and rearing up at the start.

The Sheikh of Dubai and his brother the Sheikh of Abu Dhabi had a huge day
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  #37  
Old 03-31-18, 04:27 PM
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Audible looks like the most likely winner of this race. However i am not sold on his derby prospects bc of his pedigree. Also of note the Fountain of Youth came up kind of weak as well as the Holy Bull.

Audible hasnt been training well but they say he never does and for some horses that is true. However i doubt Pletcher is too optimistic after his last work where he got neat by Vino Rossi, an allowance low level stakes horse. I could see a long shot winning this race like Hofburg or maybe even Storm Runner. I am against Strike Ppwer bc of pedigree issues. If Promises Fulfilled gets an easy lead he could spring the mild upset.

If the Audible performs at his Holy Bull level he wins. Pletcher is good at the Derby preps and even though he looks bad training, it may not matter in the end.
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  #38  
Old 03-31-18, 05:52 PM
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Audible wins the Florida Derby giving Todd Pletcher 5 Florida Derby wins. 2nd came to Hofburg who put in a nice effort. Might want to watch him later on. He has only raced three times now. I like him
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  #39  
Old 03-31-18, 06:35 PM
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Been doing a good job of keying on horses who are eligible to improve and with good odds. Have hit a lot of tris and exactas this derby prep season with a horse with odds finishing in the money
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  #40  
Old 03-31-18, 08:48 PM
clarkgriswold clarkgriswold is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Arrogate View Post
Need to see what the figure is, but i have never ever thought a horse coming from Dubai could win the Derby. Mendelssohn has a shot. What a performance. He won by 18 lengths!

Little back story on him. He was bred in Kentucky but has primarily raced on turf and in Europe. However he is has some dirt pedigree. He is a half brother to the champion Beholder and also a half brother to one of the top sires, Into Mischief.
18 lengths? Holy smokes. My limited math skills tell me that's 144 feet.
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  #41  
Old 03-31-18, 10:07 PM
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Originally Posted by clarkgriswold View Post
18 lengths? Holy smokes. My limited math skills tell me that's 144 feet.
Impressive even when considering the huge inside speed bias of the track. As i stated earlier this isnt your normal Derby hopeful based in europe. His pedigree shows he can win on dirt..i will probably be including him on my multi race wagers
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  #42  
Old 03-31-18, 10:08 PM
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McKinzie out of the Santa Anita Derby. Baffert said he easnt sure if it was an injury or not but he is being careful. Potentially off of the Derby trail.
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  #43  
Old 03-31-18, 10:21 PM
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I am in a contest with over 5000 people and payoffs are for top 10. All derby preps and you get a fictitious $2 Win Place Show bet and you add up your bankroll with the last race being the Derby. My bankroll is $131.60. The person in 10th has 178.60. Need to make up +47 bucks in the last few races. I have the Derby, Wood Memorial, Bluegrass, Arkansas, Lexington, and Santa Anita Derby left.
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  #44  
Old 04-01-18, 12:15 PM
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How can I embed a youtube video to here? I would like to put up some of the key prep races for those that may want to watch before the Derby. I would like to first upload Mendelssohn's race bc it is spectacular.

He ran a 106 Beyer Speed Figure, havent seen other products figure yet. That is the highest of any 3 year old this year
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  #45  
Old 04-02-18, 11:45 AM
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Bluegrass Derby and Santa Anita Derby this weekend.

McKinzie seems to be off the derby trail bc of an injury. Justify and Bolt D'Oro will go head to head in the Santa Anita Derby. Whoever wins will be the Derby favorite

Good Magic looks to return to form and needs to put on a good showing this weekend at Keeneland if he wants any action in May

As i said before the winner will most likely have California connections.
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  #46  
Old 04-07-18, 01:40 PM
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Wood Memorial, Santa Anita Derby and Bluegrass Derby all today. All will most likely be run on a wet track.

Santa Anita is a 2 horse race between Bolt D'Oro and Justofy. Whoever wins will be the derby favorite.

Wood Memorial looks pretty weak and Enticed is the main player in there. However he has already qualified and may not fire his best bc he doesnt need the "win". I think Baffert's horse, Restoring Hope, looks like a major player today. Has only won one race but has every possible reason to improve.

Bluegrass will see the second race of 2018 for champion 2 y/o Good Magic. He seems to be training well and needs to perform here to show he is the same horse as he was a 2 y/o. Often times we see horses change for the worse from racing season to racing season. The Bluegrass seems like a good place to take a stand againt Good Magic if you dont like him/think he isnt the same horse. I thought Sporting Chance would have ran better last out for Lukas. He may be a price horse some will look at. Tampa Bay Derby winner Quip is also in, making his 2nd start of the year. Flameaway seems like he is sitting on go and i will try to get him in the exacta.
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  #47  
Old 04-07-18, 01:49 PM
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If the price is right I think Kanthaka could be a solid play however i am concerned about his pedigree for this race. He seems like a sprinter. His last race was against Bolt D'Oro and McKinzie, he ran huge for 3rd. Had a terrible break and went to his knees but was still able to run huge. I am looking for value in this race.

Dont really like playing favorites bc you wont make any money in the long run. However i don't see any single opportunities for me except for Monomoy Girl in the Ashland. She is an impressive horse, maybe the 2jd best filly right now on the Oaks trail. I still may try to beat her with eskimo kisses but unsure as of right now
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  #48  
Old 04-07-18, 04:41 PM
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Old time revival in the wood is 24-1. Hopefully can get him in the tri
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  #49  
Old 04-07-18, 04:58 PM
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Vino rosso wins the wood. What a bad group of horses. If anyone takes a horse from the Wood in the Derby all i have to say is good luck
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  #50  
Old 04-07-18, 05:40 PM
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Good Magic wins, Flameaway ran 2nd and Free Drop Billy ran 3rd after Sporting Chance was DQed for interference in the stretch. Sporting Chance was on the wrong lead and drifted way out, exactly the same as the Hopeful last summer where he drifted out and interfered with Free Drop Billy. Deja vu.


Good Magic didn't look too good winning IMO.
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  #51  
Old 04-07-18, 05:55 PM
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We are about 20 minutes away from watching the biggest race of the year (so far).
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  #52  
Old 04-07-18, 06:23 PM
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Justify just toyed with him
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  #53  
Old 04-07-18, 06:41 PM
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What a Derby this will be! Deepest field we have seen in a while. This crop is full of really good horses.


Mendelssohn
Audible
Justify
Bolt D'Oro
Magnum Moon


One of those is your winner
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  #54  
Old 04-07-18, 07:58 PM
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If anyone is planning on betting the Kentucky Oaks. Go watch the Santa Anita Oaks. Midnight Bisou ran a huge race. She closed from far back into a rather slow pace. She is the best 3 year old filly in the country. As of right now the only horse near her level is Monomoy Girl.
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  #55  
Old 04-14-18, 06:46 PM
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Magnum Moon is really good. Wins the Arkansas Derby inpressively.

My Boy Jack qualifies as well with a win in the Lexington stakes at Keeneland
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  #56  
Old 04-14-18, 06:53 PM
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He did drift out twice in the stretch. Not many races under his belt. I am sure he was feeling it
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  #57  
Old 04-15-18, 12:39 PM
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Magnum Moon only ran a 116 Timeform figure. Not sure on Brisnet or Beyer number. That is considerably lower than the other top contenders. Super talented horse unraced 2 year old. Probably will leave him off of Derby win tickets. I have him in a couple of exactas in futures and tbh that is all I want on him. May use him for 2nd and 3rd.
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  #58  
Old 04-15-18, 12:53 PM
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Sounds like it is shaping up for a fun wide open Derby.
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  #59  
Old 04-15-18, 03:49 PM
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It really is. Wouldnt be surprised if 7 different horses were to win it.

Out of the Arkansas Derby I think Combatant ran a huge race and should be looked at for underneath.

Solomini still hasnt switched leads. Imagine if he ever figured out how to do it lol.

My top horses

Justify
Mendelssohn
Bolt D'Oro
Good Magic
Magnun Moon
Vino Rosso
Audible


This are some opinions for the TOP spot. 2nd, 3rd, 4th may be a different story.


I dont think I will play Audible, Magnum Moon, or Vino Rosso. Audible is a great horse, can win it, but pedigree is up against him. I also dont think he beat much in Florida. The horses that got to the lead, Promises Fulfilled and Strike Power, both put up crazy fractions and did no running at the end losing by a country mile. With the main threat Catholic Boy bleeding, he really only put away one horse, Hofburg. How good is Hofburg? Not sure, he has only raced a few times and that was his first race against winners and stakes company.

Magnum Moon's number came up short and he drifted out twice in the stretch. Not many races under his belt and he was an unraced 2 year old.

Vino Rosso won the Wood but that was a weak field and his number was a little light compared to the top 3. The pace up front fell apart and he looked good doing it but how much was it the pace breakdown making him look good/not a great group of horses. One positive for him is that he wants more ground. This horse will be live in the Belmont and I will probably use him there. But for the Derby he is a toss on top

Justify is an unraced 2 year old and usually i like betting against these. Eventually we will see the curse of Apollo broken and the point system has a lot to do with that. However he has put up crazy big numbers and looked good doing it so I cant leave him off. He hasnt raced in a full field, hasnt had horses to his outside, hasnt had dirt in jis face, and has had good setups in every win. But I am not sure that will matter much because he is a freak. He won the Santa Anita Derby in his 3rd start and is putting up speed figures that are eye popping considering how green he is.

Mendelssohn is a freak. Usually i say no to euro or Dubai horses coming over but he is a KY bred. Regally bred, siblings to Beholder and Into Mischief, enough said. The joke when he won the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf is that he was your Derby winner. He just might be. Watch his UAE race. He runs like that and he wins for fun. He has travelled all across the world and it hasnt taken a toll on him. One knock is that his trainer hasnt prepped a Derby horse. Too talented to leave off
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  #60  
Old 04-15-18, 04:01 PM
clarkgriswold clarkgriswold is offline
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What's up with the horses unraced as 2 year olds? Were they injured or was a it different training strategy?
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