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  #1  
Old 03-10-18, 10:42 AM
Arrogate Arrogate is offline
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Road to the Kentucky Derby

Well we are about 2 months away from the Derby. So far the preps have shown no real standout yet. Good Magic, Champion Juvenile, ran 3rd in the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream. He will most likely switch circuits to the Bluegrass or Wood Memorial. Speed favoring track that day and it doesn't really suit him. Decent effort off of a layoff but I have more knocks against him than most would.

As of right now I think the winner of the Derby will be a California based horse. Not impressed with anything in Florida, Arkansas, Louisiana, and New York. McKinzie is probably the top choice for me right now. Lightly raced, proven around two turns.

Bolt D'Oro the 2 year old freak returns to the track today at Santa Anita in the San Felipe. He and McKinzie will square off for top billing in the 3 year old class. Edge to McKinzie just because he has more foundation at this point. Bolt D'Oro is probably the more talented horse but he hasn't raced since the Breeders Cup and has been derailed in training. I look for a huge performance out of him in the Santa Anita Derby. But for this race I will get against him in the win column. Another logical contender in the San Felipe is Kanthaka, who is my pick for some contests I am playing.

Tampa Bay Derby also runs today and I am not overly impressed with any of them in the field, maybe some improve and vault themselves into consideration. Logical Contenders are Flameaway, Vino Rosso and World of Trouble. For my contest picks I chose World of Trouble. Hoping he can get a speed advantage and take down the likely two favorites.

Gotham: Free Drop Billy looks to be the best, decent amount of pace and Romans has been on fire. Firenze Fire will be the main competition. For my contest picks I took Dial Operator, big price and hoping he can improve and get a good pace setup and trip.


One horse to look out for who is a later blooming Baffert horse is Justify. He might be the real deal and dominant horse of the class. They apparently have switched plans and will run in the Sunland Derby, he originally was thought to skip the Derby. We shall see what he does.

My top horses for the Derby at this moment are

McKinzie
Bolt D'Oro
Good Magic
Solomini
Catholic Boy
Free Drop Billy


I didn't include Pletcher's best horse Audible, emphatic winner of the Holy Bull. Left him off because of breeding concerns, he is by Into Mischief and doesn't have a classic distance pedigree. Most Into Mischief horses run best at around 1 mile. He is a great horse, might win the Florida Derby but is a huge bet against in the Derby for me
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  #2  
Old 03-10-18, 10:48 AM
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I am sure this will be a one person blog but has anyone watched any preps? Like any horses, don't like a certain one? Will you be betting on the Derby? Planning on going? Taco you still playing with Lexington big shots?
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Old 03-10-18, 11:30 AM
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havent been watching until today ill give you my picks soon
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  #4  
Old 03-10-18, 05:32 PM
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Definetily won't be using any of the Tampa horses for win considerations in the Derby.

Ended up using Flameaway and World of Trouble on my p4.
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Old 03-10-18, 05:47 PM
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Quip wins Tampa Bay Derby
Enticed wins Gotham.

Neither looked great doing it, both speed figures look to come up light. The Gotham is kind of a joke being a derby prep and only being one turn
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Old 03-10-18, 06:00 PM
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What a race between McKinzie and Bolt D'Oro. McKinzie wins by about a head, if that. The rematch will be well hyped. These are the two best so far.
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  #7  
Old 03-10-18, 06:02 PM
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Hoping this plays out to a great rivalry between the two.
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Old 03-10-18, 06:19 PM
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Wow they took McKinzie down. Didn't notice until I got home and checked the results to see what the pick 3 paid. Wow.

Just rewatched the race. No consistency from stewards. It was conclusive but took forever to make the decision. The foul occurred in deep stretch, not at the top of the stretch

Last edited by Arrogate; 03-10-18 at 06:29 PM.
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  #9  
Old 03-11-18, 12:52 PM
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Bolt D'Oro and McKinzie both ran a 101 Beyer Speed a figure
Quip 94
Enticed 95

Rewatched the Tampa Derby, Flameaway ran the best race and put in a huge effort. He is one to look at moving forward. Slammed at the start, speed favoring track, nobody was making a "closing move" all day except for him. He is the only one that interests from Tampa.

Enticed ran wide but the time came up slow and light on the speed figure. No interest in him for the Derby
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  #10  
Old 03-11-18, 03:19 PM
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Probably won't get to see much of a race but today the much anticipated 2nd start of Justify is about to happen at Santa Anita. Still needs to do more than this before i buy into "the freak" hype. They claim he is the best but we have seen that before.
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Old 03-11-18, 03:52 PM
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Hard not to buy into the hype machine. Probably the most talented but will he be ready in time for the Derby?

One stat in racing that has held true for a long long time is that an unraced 2 year old can't win the Derby. Only horse has done it, Apollo in 1882.
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  #12  
Old 03-11-18, 03:58 PM
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So I bet into the futures pool. Got Bolt D'Oro and Justify on win bets, 8-1 and 12-1. They will be much lower than that on Derby day. Also did an exacta with those two over a few other horses.
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  #13  
Old 03-11-18, 04:07 PM
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Still think Justify has some knocks against him, talent not being one of them. Unraced 2 year old is the biggest by far. He hasn't had much dirt in his face, hasn't been challenged, and hasn't had any traffic issues yet. I'm not sure he will even get that challenge in the Sunland Derby but I hope he does to see if he can handle it
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  #14  
Old 03-11-18, 04:14 PM
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Question is where does Baffert send him? To Sunland? Not a fan of that, weaker field, odd track, spacing between the derby may be a concern. Arkansas may be a nice fit but he sounds like he may send McKinzie there and I doubt he sends two horses for that race. He certainly won't send him to Florida or New York and very doubtful for Louisiana and Keeneland. He certainly won't put him up against Bolt in the Santa Anita Derby. Baffert has some management decisions now.
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Old 03-11-18, 07:03 PM
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These are Timeform speed figures for races over the weekend. Of note there are 4 Derby horses on the list. Winners of the 3 stakes races and McKinzie who was DQ'ed. I prefer Timeform figures over Beyer Speed Figures. They are the best IMO. Noticeable difference between the San Felipe runners and the Gotham/Tampa Winners. Interested to see what speed figure Justify will earn.
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  #16  
Old 03-11-18, 08:47 PM
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Going to explain my reasoning for betting Justify. I will most likely use him defensively on Derby Day because he is an unraced 2 year old, won't have many races under his belt, will be a low price if he wins a Derby prep race, and I typically try to beat favorites, especially in the Derby. Hasn't panned out too well the past few years because favorites have come in every year. I blame that on the new points system. History tells a story and while some unraced 2 year olds have ran well, they still haven't won. Bodemeister being the most recent one who almost won and lost to I'll Have Another. I once said if Curlin couldn't break the streak no one will.

However in getting him at 12-1 in win futures and generous payouts on exactas I think the value was there to bet him, in hopes he breaks the streak. For example he opened in the last Derby Futures pool at 10-1. He ended up being the favorite when it closed after his race today. So if he wins his prep race he will probably be around 4 or 5 to 1 at best. My cheapest exacta payout is 188 for two dollars and that is him and Bolt D'Oro. If any of the other horses come in it is even more. The payoff justifies the risk in gambling on him in futures.

Time will tell and we have a long way to go and my opinions may change on him and other horses, but for now I think I gambled on him at the right time. This last futures pool is betting him down a ton.
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  #17  
Old 03-12-18, 07:43 AM
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Appreciate the intel.
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  #18  
Old 03-12-18, 02:13 PM
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Justify ran a 125 Timeform figure FWIW

Been thinking about him and his connections. He is Baffert trained but the ownership group is China Horse Club. They also are the owners of Quip I believe, who won the Tampa Bay Derby this past weekend. Reason why I bring them up is because if you want to train their horses you take orders and don't give them. Even Baffert.

This horse somewhat reminds me of West Coast and Arrogate, not necessarilly physically, but that they arrived later on the scene and Baffert was patient with them. However the owners of those two are patient owners, Gary and Mary West owning West Coast and Juddmonte owning Arrogate. (Juddmonte is owned by a Saudi prince) these two ownership groups do whats best for the horse and take Baffert's advice. I tend to think Baffert doesnt want to rush him along and probably wanted to gun for the Preakness or other big summer races like the Travers. However with this ownership group they may be forcing Baffert to get him in the Derby whether he is ready or not. Something to think about
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Old 03-12-18, 02:16 PM
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One example of China Horse Club giving orders....

Baffert was going to have Drayden Van Dyke be the rider for his last race but demanded Baffert get Mike Smith to ride. Just shows the clout they have if they tell Baffert what to do.
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  #20  
Old 03-12-18, 02:49 PM
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Way off topic but wanted to get some takes on cloned horses. 60 minutes did an extended look at cloned horses and how they have affected the sport of polo. I understand they are banned in thoroughbred racing but there are a few that want this lifted. I think it is not right for any type of sport (racing, polo, eventing, etc...) to have a cloned horse but if looking for a certain traits for purposes like mounted police, farming, or entertainment it might be a good thing. Other thoughts?
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Old 03-12-18, 03:11 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Auggie View Post
Way off topic but wanted to get some takes on cloned horses. 60 minutes did an extended look at cloned horses and how they have affected the sport of polo. I understand they are banned in thoroughbred racing but there are a few that want this lifted. I think it is not right for any type of sport (racing, polo, eventing, etc...) to have a cloned horse but if looking for a certain traits for purposes like mounted police, farming, or entertainment it might be a good thing. Other thoughts?
Not a chance rhe Jockey Club ever approves it for thoroughbred racing. Remember they dont allow artificial insemination or any embryo transfers to be registered. Meaning they csn't breed, they cant race, and future offspring cant race.

There are already so many horses that I dont think there is a need for cloning. But if they want to do it i dont reallt care. Keep it out of racing.

I dont the the AQHA (American Quarter Horse Association) would be wanting to allow it. Yappi may knkw better about the USTA and if they would be more interested in doing it. I dont know if they would be open to it for racing but i doubt it as well.

But i get back to how many horses are out there and how many arent in ideal conditions and think cloning isnt necessary because the AQHA, which is the largest in terms of registered horses, has a huge problem with horses having a second career. Plenty of good horses out there so I dont really see the need.
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Old 03-12-18, 06:04 PM
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This weekend we will see Solomini run at Oaklawn in the Rebel Stakes . This is the final prep for the Arkansas Derby. Baffert sends Flavien Prat to ride Solomini who doesnt have the hype behind him as Mckinzie and Justify do out of Baffert's barn but he is a solid grinder who has the potential to surprise come Derby Day. He beat McKinzie but was disqualified and ran 2nd in the Breeders Cup Juvenile. I like him and as of now I see him as a horse that may work out a good trip and get first run at the leader. Which is a strong move in the Derby, he is a logical candidate as of now to use for underneath in exotics and potentially in multi race wagers. He hits the board and tries hard every race. He is consistent.
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Old 03-13-18, 03:38 PM
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This is a pedigree angle that pertains to Justify and other horses on the Derby Trail.

Justify is by Scat Daddy out of a Ghostzapper mare.

The Storm Cat (Scat Daddy) sire line is 0/51 in the Kentucky Derby.

The Vice Regent (Ghostzapper) sire line is 0/24 as a broodmare sire in the Kentucky Derby


Pretty wild to think about considering Storm Cat was one of the most influential sires ever.
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Old 03-17-18, 11:54 AM
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Today we have the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn, prep for the Arkansas Derby. Baffert sends out the favorite Solomini who hasnt raced this year yet. I dont expect him to win today bc he hasnt looked great training, although he haa never been a work horse, Baffert's numbers in this spot arent the best, and the layoff is a concern. If he runs to his two year old level he will win but i think it is wise to play against in the win spot for exotics and bet him next race

I like Title Ready at a nice price in the Rebel as well as Combatant. Both trained by Asmussen.

Also the Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway is being run today. Really strong card at Turfway today. This race used to be the Spiral and Jim Beam Stakes. Some outcry iver the name because of the word "Steaks" is included. Havent made up my mind and there is no overwhelming favorite here. Wide open. Looking for a price. Horse that catches my eye the most is Pony Up. He ran well against Flameaway (derby contender) and Speed Franco, a top turf horse. Form should convert to the polytrack at Turfway
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Old 03-17-18, 05:31 PM
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Blended Citizen wins the Jeff Ruby Steaks in a photo over Pony Up
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Old 03-17-18, 06:40 PM
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Magnum Moon wins the Rebel over Solomini Combatant and Title Ready.
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Old 03-17-18, 06:44 PM
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Baffert says he will send Justify to thr Arkansas Derby, Mckinzie in thr Santa Anita Derby, Restoring Hope and Ax Man expected for Sunland. No word on Solomini and Nero.
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Old 03-23-18, 07:14 AM
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Got the Sunland Derby Sunday and the Louisiana Derby Saturday.
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Old 03-24-18, 09:41 PM
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Noble Indy, trained by Todd Pletcher wins the Louisiana Derby. My Boy Jack, was charging late and hung a bit and finished a close third. Long shot Lone Sailor was 2nd in a photo with Noble Indy. I was reslly pulling for Lone Sailor because I keyed him in exotics because a handicapper I respect, David Aragona, pointed out a few things about him that i liked.

Noble Indy ran a pretty good race, pressed the pace, it was a fast pace too. He rerallied in the stretch and the addition of blinkers seemed to help. Not sure he is a win contender for the Derby but should be potentially considered for exotics

Last edited by Arrogate; 03-25-18 at 07:37 AM.
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Old 03-25-18, 09:51 AM
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After watching that race over and over I am going to look at My Boy Jack moving forward. I dont think winning here was the goal after watching how they raced him. First off he had a troubled trip. He was like 15 wide on the turn after making up a TON of ground. That move he made from the 3/8th pole to the 1/8th pole is a move that WINS the Derby. That was all planned to make him ready for the Derby. The turn of foot he showed was impressive and if he is maybe 5th-10th in the Derby and makes that move he will be in contention. This is how Desormeaux prepares his horses, eerily similar to the way he has prepped Texas Red, Sonneteer, and Preakness winner Exaggerator. He hung a bit at the end but i think the plan was to make that "derby move" to set him up going forward.

Still have a ways away but he will at minimum be in my exotics plays and might be my "stinger" who i hope hits the board at a really nice price. I dont think he is likely to win it but hitting the board at a monster price is definitely within his capabilities
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