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  #61  
Old 04-15-18, 05:38 PM
Arrogate Arrogate is offline
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Why are there so many this year that are good?

Can't speak for all of them but it sounds like a few of them weren't ready. It is asking a lot for horses to race at 2 years old. Most horses wont debut until they are 3 years old. Usually they go through a good growth spurt as 2 year olds and it can be hard for them to be ready to race. We have seen the past two years that the best 3 year old didnt race in the triple crown (west coast arrogate). Im not so sure Baffert wanted to train Justify for the Derby. I mentioned his owners and how they give orders, not take them.


Some may have been injured and some of it may be a training strategy. None of them had major injuries as far as I know. However you typically dont race your horse less than 100% and a small problem can set you back a while, like a hoof abscess. Sickness is a big issue as well. Just a minor cough screws everything up. As a general rule every day of a fever you lose a week of training/fitness to get back to where you were. Similar time frame depending on the injury. When you factor in races not filling up with enough horses or finding one with the distance you want, you can set yourself back easily.

It is tough to get a horse to the track, rushing them does nobody any good. Asking a 2 year old to get to the track is a tougher thing to do.


It is becoming more common and that is bc of the points systems. It used to be based on graded stakes earnings. Now it is based on points and the only races to give points need to be routes. (Usually two turns with the exception of the Gotham this year bc of track changes) we are now seeing horses start later because they dont need to get a ton of graded stakes earnings to have more than the sprinters. It has changed the dynamics of the race from many perspectives including the pace. Part of the reason we have had favorites win every year since the points system. Foundation isnt as important as recent form now. It certainly is beneficial to have foundation and races under your belt as a 2 year old but it is becoming less important.



Not sure if any of this makes sense.

Unraced 2 year olds have come close. Bodemeister ran the best race with crazy fast fractions but was passed by I'll Have Another. Freaky performance.

Also Curlin came in third as the favorite but had some excuses.
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  #62  
Old 04-17-18, 01:21 PM
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Did some research and saw Magnum Moon had a small filling in his ankle as a 2 year old and was cleared by vets but Pletcher decided to give him more time off
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  #63  
Old 04-23-18, 08:46 AM
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Looks like Japan will not be sending a horse from their qualifier, good deal, waste of a spot.

Can't wait to laugh at what Gronkowski goes off at. He may not beat more than 5 horses and will be bet down be of name recognition. There are always a couple horses who get bet down for dumb reasons....wiseguy horse from key race, wiseguy horse who is training well, and the 2 dollar bets on name or backstory. Last year we had the one eyed horse Patch get bet down way below what he should have been along with the wiseguy horse Hence.

If Catholic Boy was in he would have taken money on name alone.

I think horses that will be bet down below their morning line are My Boy Jack, Hofburg, and Gronkowski.
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  #64  
Old 04-23-18, 01:50 PM
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Quip will skip the Derby and gun for the Preakness.

Gronkowski suffered a setback and may not race either
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  #65  
Old 04-23-18, 04:02 PM
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Gronkowski out. Had an infection. Combatant took Quip's spot.
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  #66  
Old 04-23-18, 07:07 PM
clarkgriswold clarkgriswold is online now
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With the money these owners have in their horses, I guess it is smart to be better safe than sorry.
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  #67  
Old 04-23-18, 08:14 PM
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Instilled Regard gets in for Jerry Hollendorfer. He win th LeComte and was 4th in the Santa Anita Derby
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  #68  
Old 04-23-18, 08:19 PM
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Originally Posted by clarkgriswold View Post
With the money these owners have in their horses, I guess it is smart to be better safe than sorry.
Gronkowski had no shot anyway but when you have an infection they lose fitness fast. Just not worth the risk considering how much it sets them back when you need a horse firing his best. Really wish he would have ran. Gronkowski would be blacked out by the third race.

Quip isn't injured or sick. Trainer just doesn't think he is 120% fit after that big race in Arkansas. Said it took a little bit out of him. Preakness will suit him perfectly with his running style. Not too many races under his belt and this is probably the smart move imo
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  #69  
Old 04-28-18, 09:25 AM
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Taco will you be going to the Derby or gambling?
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  #70  
Old 04-28-18, 03:18 PM
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Latest Kentucky Derby odds from William Hill US:

Justify (2-1)
Magnum Moon (4-1)
Mendelssohn (9-2)
Bolt d'Oro (5-1)
Good Magic (7-1)
Audible (10-1)
Vino Rosso (12-1)
Enticed (18-1)
My Boy Jack (20-1)
Solomini (20-1)
Instilled Regard (20-1)
Noble Indy (24-1)
Hofburg (30-1)
Lone Sailor (40-1)
Flameaway (40-1)
Combatant (40-1)
Promises Fulfilled (50-1)
Bravazo (50-1)
Free Drop Billy (50-1)
Strike Power (50-1)
Restoring Hope (50-1)
Firenze Fire (60-1)
Snapper Sinclair (75-1)
Dream Baby Dream (100-1)
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  #71  
Old 04-28-18, 03:30 PM
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Ironically Dream Baby Dream is last at 100-1.
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  #72  
Old 04-28-18, 03:46 PM
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My top 3 longshots as of today (to hit the board) (notnin order) My Boy Jack, Combatant, and Hofburg

Will change with post position

Horses who I think have the best shot as of today (not in order) and if all were given ideal posts I would most likely use all of them on some tickets for multi race wagers

Justify, Mendelssohn, Bolt D'Oro, Good Magic, Vino Rosso


I was down on Vino and I still dont think he beat anything of merit and had such an ideal pace set up in doing so that it looked better than it was. However he is bred for the distance and I like the way he is working. I will be all over him in the Belmont. There is also a chance the speed could get hot and at that would benefit him greatly. John Velazquez chooses him over other Pletcher runners like Audible and Magnum Moon. The blinkers looked to really help him and he looks to be on the improve. He is around 15-1 by most oddsmakers/morning line. Will change with post. He isnt my top choice but I think he should be used as of now and offers great value.

I will probably use Hofburg on top as well on a couple tickets. Horse is intriguing to say the least.
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  #73  
Old 04-28-18, 03:49 PM
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Yappi is there a way I could embed the major prep races for the Derby? I forget how to do it.

I would like to embed the Santa Anita Derby, Arkansas Derby, UAE Derby, Bluegrass Derby, Louisiana Derby, Florida Derby, and the Wood Memorial. Just in case someone wants to watch a couple of them.

I reccomend watching Mendelssohn's UAE Derby win. Fastest Beyer Speed Figure

Regardless of what he does in the Derby he will be worth an insane amount when he goes to breed. Half brother is Into Mischief and half sister is Beholder. If he were to win he would be the most sought after Stallion prospect in a while. Ashford/Coolmore (Irish) just got richer.
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  #74  
Old 04-28-18, 05:25 PM
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  #75  
Old 04-28-18, 05:27 PM
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  #76  
Old 04-28-18, 05:27 PM
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  #77  
Old 04-28-18, 05:28 PM
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  #78  
Old 04-28-18, 05:29 PM
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  #79  
Old 04-28-18, 05:30 PM
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  #80  
Old 04-28-18, 05:31 PM
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  #81  
Old 05-01-18, 10:20 AM
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Draw is right now.

Every contender has a decent post. Speed signed up inside
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  #82  
Old 05-01-18, 10:50 AM
Taco MacArthur Taco MacArthur is offline
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Taco will you be going to the Derby or gambling?
I'll be going. Might only place a few bets though as I'll be in the infield this year. Unless there's a spot in the infield to place bets.
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  #83  
Old 05-01-18, 11:11 AM
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Originally Posted by Taco MacArthur View Post
I'll be going. Might only place a few bets though as I'll be in the infield this year. Unless there's a spot in the infield to place bets.
There are. Make bets for like two or three races ahead. Take a piss and get a beer before you go
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  #84  
Old 05-01-18, 11:18 AM
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Here is the draw
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  #85  
Old 05-01-18, 11:23 AM
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Good Magic at 12-1 morning line
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  #86  
Old 05-01-18, 11:31 AM
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  #87  
Old 05-01-18, 11:34 AM
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To anyone else betting the Derby undercard watch this race. The 4, National Flag will be in the Pat Day Mile. He will be the favorite but man is he good. That turn of foot is incredible. He got bumped at the gate and took back. However he usually races near the front and just showed some versatility. He wont offer much value but he is a single for any multirace wager like a p3, p4, or double. Allows you to make your tickets cheaper and to spread out in a different race and hope to catch a price horse.

You just need to win on Derby day because they will pay better than usual.
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  #88  
Old 05-01-18, 12:51 PM
clarkgriswold clarkgriswold is online now
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Hard to argue with that Mendelssohn performance.
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  #89  
Old 05-01-18, 12:54 PM
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Hard to argue with that Mendelssohn performance.
Freaky good.

I will say it was speed favoring and favoring the rail. Not many horses passed anyone that whole day. Like a merry go round

However even with the bias that performance will put him in contention. I will be interested to see how he handles dirt in the face.
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  #90  
Old 05-02-18, 01:21 AM
brianwr112 brianwr112 is online now
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Arrogate,
being that I went to school in Kentucky and spent many of days at Keeneland I appreciate your coverage. I don't get the chance to follow as much as I'd like so look for someone with a bit more knowledge than I going into this weekend. My problem with the undercards is I know even less about them now. I'll probably put together a few P3s and P4s to make the whole day interesting. Of course I put the most money on the Derby and but don't look at it as a big return race. More for fun with friends and if I end up ahead I'm happy.

Taco,
There are places all over the infield to place bets. The problem is you might not actually get to watch the race either live or on TV. That is unless you use your phone to do so. It's not the party it used to be and that's a real shame. The days of jean shorts, cutoff shirts and their very strict rules of NOT finding alcohol being smuggled in is missed. 9/11 and social media put an end to those days though. It looks to be 80 degrees with a decent amount of humidity on Saturday (rain Friday) I'd scrap the suit and forbid any lady friends from wearing heals if I were you.
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