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  #1  
Old 10-30-17, 01:11 PM
The Dock The Dock is offline
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MSL Cardinal 2017-18

Thoughts??
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  #2  
Old 10-31-17, 08:44 AM
Snowman8 Snowman8 is offline
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I didn't follow the conference as close last year as I have in the past, but based on who is returning and the new teams coming into the conference, here's my best prediction. I'll try to hide my frustration with recruiting schools, but it's just hard for the Berne Union's of the conference to compete with schools that routinely get 3 or 4 super transfers every year. Admittedly, I know very little about several teams and am using the D4 tournament program that I dug up as a reference.

I think the conference goes in 3 tiers. Other than Rosecrans, which I know nothing about, I think it'll be unlikely that any team defeats an opponent from a higher tier. Here's my guess:

Tier 1
1) Harvest Prep
2) Wellington

Tier 2
3) Bishop Rosecrans
4) Grove City Christian
5) Fairfield Christian

Tier 3
6) Fisher Catholic
7) Millersport
8) Berne Union

1) Harvest Prep
Only lost 3 players from a team that got the #1 seed in D4 last year. They had so many transfers that with the new competitive balance rules they almost were in Division 2 (although the rule states that you can't jump 2 divisions in 1 year). Lost a couple key players but return lots of guys with experience and will gain their usual abundance of transfers. They also have 5 guys on 270hoops.com that are ranked in their class, including a commit to Taylor University. Hard to compete with that recruiting machine year after year.

2) Wellington
A team that went from .500 to back-to-back State appearances within a few years thanks largely to a bevy of transfers that mysteriously started showing up at the same time as their new coach, they will also be D3 for the foreseeable future. 6 players ranked on 270hoops.com.

Wellington and Harvest Prep are pretty even from the looks of it. Not sure which new transfers they will each have, but Wellington returns Air Force commit Solomon Pierre-Louis, the Faller twins (one committed to Concordia), and another regular from their back-to-back State appearances. Losing their posts will hurt, but having several 6'5" wings should help make up for that.

3) Bishop Rosecrans
Since they aren't in the Central District, I know nothing about them other than their record from last year (18-7 on MaxPreps), MaxPreps had them as the 16th best Division 4 team in the state, they beat some tough competition, and that they are traditionally strong. They might be much better or worse than where I put them, so if someone knows better then take their opinion over mine.

4) Grove City Christian
I could be totally wrong on this one too, but they lost 8 of their top 10 players from last year's Regional team. They do return two posts and have a bunch of senior guards who played JV last year, so it might be a slower start than usual until they gain that experience. That being said, their guard depth was so deep last year that these could be talented kids who just couldn't get on the court because of the superstars ahead of them. I think GCC will be good, just not as elite as last year, which means that they'll lose at least 4 conference games to Harvest Prep and Wellington. Right now it looks like Fairfield Christian and Bishop Rosecrans could be tossups. I still see GCC as a top team in Division 4 now that Wellington, Harvest Prep, Newark Catholic, and Africentric are up to Division 3.

5) Fairfield Christian
OHSAA website says that their 2018 enrollment is 41 boys. Several years ago I believe they had around 80 boys (for comparison, Grove City Christian is up to 93 boys). Making things tougher, based on the program from last season they will lose 8 seniors. Only 1 starter returns and if I remember correctly their JV team wasn't as strong as in years past. However, coach Hooper knows this conference very well and their active defense usually keeps games close, so it wouldn't surprise me if they won some games despite being less talented than their opponents.

6) Fisher Catholic
They return their best player, only lost 2 seniors, finished last season strong, and perhaps most importantly actually have the same coach (hopefully he stays so they can have some continuity for once). I recall seeing somewhere that they had a strong summer showing, so it wouldn't surprise me if they greatly improved. I'll need to see it first, but it might be possible that they are able to compete with GCC and FCA depending on how things go (based on my uneducated opinion).

7) Millersport
I believe their coach retired again. They struggled last year but only lose 2 seniors and have some decent height (last year's tournament program says they have a 6'6" freshman, two 6'3" guys, and several others over 6'). Admittedly I don't know much about them either, but I'd have to think they'll be better than last year.

8) Berne Union
Maxpreps says they went 6-14 last year and 6-17 the season before, although most of their games last season were relatively close (not including losses to powerhouses). They lose 6 seniors and I believe they only return 1 starter, so this might be a rebuilding year, which says something from a team that only won 6 games in each of the last two years.
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  #3  
Old 11-06-17, 10:15 AM
The Dock The Dock is offline
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Good assessment.

I have it as

HP
WS
BR

FC/GCC
FCA

MP
BU
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  #4  
Old 12-04-17, 07:50 PM
jeberry60 jeberry60 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Snowman8 View Post
I didn't follow the conference as close last year as I have in the past, but based on who is returning and the new teams coming into the conference, here's my best prediction. I'll try to hide my frustration with recruiting schools, but it's just hard for the Berne Union's of the conference to compete with schools that routinely get 3 or 4 super transfers every year. Admittedly, I know very little about several teams and am using the D4 tournament program that I dug up as a reference.

I think the conference goes in 3 tiers. Other than Rosecrans, which I know nothing about, I think it'll be unlikely that any team defeats an opponent from a higher tier. Here's my guess:

Tier 1
1) Harvest Prep
2) Wellington

Tier 2
3) Bishop Rosecrans
4) Grove City Christian
5) Fairfield Christian

Tier 3
6) Fisher Catholic
7) Millersport
8) Berne Union

1) Harvest Prep
Only lost 3 players from a team that got the #1 seed in D4 last year. They had so many transfers that with the new competitive balance rules they almost were in Division 2 (although the rule states that you can't jump 2 divisions in 1 year). Lost a couple key players but return lots of guys with experience and will gain their usual abundance of transfers. They also have 5 guys on 270hoops.com that are ranked in their class, including a commit to Taylor University. Hard to compete with that recruiting machine year after year.

2) Wellington
A team that went from .500 to back-to-back State appearances within a few years thanks largely to a bevy of transfers that mysteriously started showing up at the same time as their new coach, they will also be D3 for the foreseeable future. 6 players ranked on 270hoops.com.

Wellington and Harvest Prep are pretty even from the looks of it. Not sure which new transfers they will each have, but Wellington returns Air Force commit Solomon Pierre-Louis, the Faller twins (one committed to Concordia), and another regular from their back-to-back State appearances. Losing their posts will hurt, but having several 6'5" wings should help make up for that.

3) Bishop Rosecrans
Since they aren't in the Central District, I know nothing about them other than their record from last year (18-7 on MaxPreps), MaxPreps had them as the 16th best Division 4 team in the state, they beat some tough competition, and that they are traditionally strong. They might be much better or worse than where I put them, so if someone knows better then take their opinion over mine.

4) Grove City Christian
I could be totally wrong on this one too, but they lost 8 of their top 10 players from last year's Regional team. They do return two posts and have a bunch of senior guards who played JV last year, so it might be a slower start than usual until they gain that experience. That being said, their guard depth was so deep last year that these could be talented kids who just couldn't get on the court because of the superstars ahead of them. I think GCC will be good, just not as elite as last year, which means that they'll lose at least 4 conference games to Harvest Prep and Wellington. Right now it looks like Fairfield Christian and Bishop Rosecrans could be tossups. I still see GCC as a top team in Division 4 now that Wellington, Harvest Prep, Newark Catholic, and Africentric are up to Division 3.

5) Fairfield Christian
OHSAA website says that their 2018 enrollment is 41 boys. Several years ago I believe they had around 80 boys (for comparison, Grove City Christian is up to 93 boys). Making things tougher, based on the program from last season they will lose 8 seniors. Only 1 starter returns and if I remember correctly their JV team wasn't as strong as in years past. However, coach Hooper knows this conference very well and their active defense usually keeps games close, so it wouldn't surprise me if they won some games despite being less talented than their opponents.

6) Fisher Catholic
They return their best player, only lost 2 seniors, finished last season strong, and perhaps most importantly actually have the same coach (hopefully he stays so they can have some continuity for once). I recall seeing somewhere that they had a strong summer showing, so it wouldn't surprise me if they greatly improved. I'll need to see it first, but it might be possible that they are able to compete with GCC and FCA depending on how things go (based on my uneducated opinion).

7) Millersport
I believe their coach retired again. They struggled last year but only lose 2 seniors and have some decent height (last year's tournament program says they have a 6'6" freshman, two 6'3" guys, and several others over 6'). Admittedly I don't know much about them either, but I'd have to think they'll be better than last year.

8) Berne Union
Maxpreps says they went 6-14 last year and 6-17 the season before, although most of their games last season were relatively close (not including losses to powerhouses). They lose 6 seniors and I believe they only return 1 starter, so this might be a rebuilding year, which says something from a team that only won 6 games in each of the last two years.
Snowman8 I am new to this forum and interested with what is said about the Cardinal Division. I think like your insight/opinion on where teams may fall. The only area of concern I have is where you commented that Wellington "back-to-back State appearances within a few years thanks largely to a bevy of transfers". Yes, I am a Wellington parent whose son plays there. I can tell you that in the 4 years that we have been playing there we have had only 3 transfers to attend that wanted to play ball. I am probably being over sensitive but the wording leads one to believe that we get a lot of transfers each year and that is just not the case. I look forward to this years forum conversations and I truly wish each and every team, above all else a safe injury free season.
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  #5  
Old 12-05-17, 10:14 AM
Snowman8 Snowman8 is offline
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jeberry that is totally fair. Admittedly, I am an outsider in this situation so you would certainly know better than me on this. I'm relatively new to the Columbus area and have a friend whose son plays at a MOCAL school, so I guess I sympathize a little extra toward the small schools who don't really have much of a chance, which probably biased my tone a bit.

Thank you for pointing that out. I get my information through message boards and what I can find online, so I'm willing to admit that I may have been off base. In 2013-14, Wellington was 7-17 and losing to schools like International, Madison Christian, Delaware Christian. Then they get a new coach and all of a sudden start getting top-level athletes including transfers that will play at D1 schools in college (6 active players on recruiting radars). Undoubtedly Taylor is a terrific coach who knows his stuff and Wellington is a top-level education, but from that outsider perspective I guess it just sticks out as a little fishy, especially when looking at the competitive balance numbers added in.

Best of luck this year to your team and the Cardinal conference!
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  #6  
Old 12-06-17, 02:49 PM
smashmouth56 smashmouth56 is offline
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Snowman, i do agree with your projections for the most part.

The question will be can Rosecrans/FC/GCC beat either Prep or Wellington in the first part of the year before any transfers are eligible to play.

No disrespect to either Prep or Wellington, saw them play last year and they are good programs.
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  #7  
Old 12-11-17, 11:14 AM
The Dock The Dock is offline
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Harvest d. Wellington, 69-56
Fisher d. FCA, 58-41
BU d. MP, 74-51
GCC d. Rosecrans, 58-45
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