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  #1  
Old 10-30-18, 12:09 PM
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Breeders Cup

Back at Churchill. Anyone going or watching/betting

The structure of the races has changed with Friday featuring all juvenile BC races with a new addition, the BC Juvenile Turf Sprint kicking off the first of five BC races for Friday. The Dirt Mile and Distaff have been moved to Saturday

I probably wont sink much into the Friday races mainly bc my main horses I want to key in on are on the Saturday card and also bc the Juvenile races are tough to handicap with limited starts. The substantial improvements these 2 yr olds make is tough to forecast so I may make a few plays.

I will probably lean on Soldiers Call in the Juvenile turf Sprint. In the Juvenile Filly Turf I will probably use that race as a single with Newspaperofrecord. She will be the favorite and will offer little value but I have a hard time finding a better option to single on the Friday card.

In the Juvenile Dirt for Colts it is hard to play against Baffert and his star colt Game Winner but I think there are some alternatives like Code of Honor who ran greenly and hit the gate at the start. He lost a ton of ground in the Champagne. Gunmetal Gray is another alternative who should like more distance and is 10-1 but drew a tough post. If the pace is hot (which it should be) he will have a punchers chance. I am not that interested in Complexity at 5/2 bc of the pace scenario. Last race he had it all his way and I dont see him getting loose this time around. Certainly can win but I am playing against him.


In the Juvenile Turf for Colts the Euro horse Anthony Van Dyck looks to be the horse to beat but he drew the 14 hole which is a tough post. Of the American runners Forty Under looks to be solid. Havent looked too much at this race yet so i am not sure where I will go.

The Juvenile Filly on dirt the favorite Bellafina got a tough post drawing outside. She has the best figures but I think there are other horses to consider as well. Serengeti Empress won by 19 1/2 lengths last time at Churchill and the race before she won by over 13. Hasnt faced much competition but she is interesting and i will use her as well.
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  #2  
Old 10-30-18, 12:41 PM
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I will be watching.

I like seeing the juvenile races live, the paddock area is buzzing as folks check out the new blood; the races can be chaotic affairs as many of these horses have never been around a crowd the size and you never know how they will react.
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Old 10-30-18, 12:51 PM
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Good time to find prices, especially on the turf. Those 2 yr old races on the turf at Keeneland and Saratoga were chaotic to say the least.
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Old 10-31-18, 09:13 AM
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Kind of weird having very little superstar horses in these races, especially on dirt. The biggest horse racing this weekend is obviously Enable. This filly won the Arc in back to back years, only the 8th horse to do so. Fun fact about the race is that geldings arent allowed to compete in the Arc. She won it this year in only her 2nd start of the year. In the Breeders Cup Arc winners are I think 0 for 7 in the Turf Classic. Many horses finishing behind the Arc winner have won though. Will Enable break that streak? She doesnt have the same long campaigns many Arc winners have had and those horses pointed for that race. So it is understandable why they would have a "dull" effort in the BC bc this isnt seen as big of a deal to them. More like icing on the cake

Another Euro star is Roaring Lion who will be entering the Classic trying dirt for the first time. He is a son of leading American turf stallion Kitten's Joy out of Street Sense mare. I will be against him even at his morning line of 20-1. Facing kickback for the first time will be a struggle for him

The older male American turf runners are pretty bad so I am sure the Euros will dominate their races. Filly and mare American runners stand a better shot to beat the euros.
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Old 10-31-18, 09:27 AM
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Quick question Arrogate, I heard a horseman mention that the Breeders Cup should be moved up because some of these horses have started to grow their winter coats and they are not in prime racing condition. Any thoughts?
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Old 10-31-18, 09:33 AM
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I think they are foolish. Winter coats arent grown bc of the cold. It has everything to do with less light. If you want a horse to not grow its winter coat you keep lights on, similar to how we use lights to get them to cycle. No amount of blankets or warm temps will keep their coat thin.

Horses generally prefer cooler weather, in fact horses struggle with heat more so than the cold. The temps right now is the time of year horses are most active and comfortable imo. I see it with the horses I work with, in the summer they are more lethargic. In the 50s is like prime temp for a horse.

Another thing is with the use of Lasix horses become more dehydrated. It is easier to manage their fluid loss in the winter/fall/spring than in the summer.

Right now is the perfect time for it because if we moved it earlier less Europeans would come bc they are all pointing and entering the premier races over there. Their race schedule coincides well with the Breeders Cup. I value the euros coming over bc i like the international appeal to it and i like turf racing better. We would get far less quality euro horses if we moved it up. Not to mention making changes to the graded stakes schedules for all the horses.

You would essentially ruin some of the Keeneland meet, fall and late summer races that are used as preps for the BC races. A lot of moving parts that go into the BC that these horesemen dont take into account. What i find funny is if their horse has a winter coat right now it is their own dang fault.
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  #7  
Old 10-31-18, 09:44 AM
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If anyone wants past performances send me a PM with your email and I can send you DRF and/or Timeform past performances.
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Old 11-03-18, 10:40 AM
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Had a good day but it could have been better had Somelikeithotbrown or Uncle Benny held on to win the Juv Turf. I used the winner, Line of Duty but those two had prices on them.

I think Bob wins the classic today with either West Coast or McKinzie. As of now those are the only two i will use for multi race wagers. I am going to try and beat the favorite Accelerate. Been hearing good things about Yoshida but I think he is just too slow.

Hoping World of Trouble runs big in the Turf Sprint. If I can get either Catalina Cruiser and/or Imperial Hint to lose in their races I will be happy.i think Catalina wins but on my tickets against him I like c
City of Light and firenze fire. To beat Imperial Hint I will use Promises Fulfilled and Roy H, maybe Whitmore and Limousine Liberal to a smaller extent.

Both look like standouts so it is expected for them to win but if they do the payouts will be solid. I may take a small stab against the huge fav Enable with Waldgeist and Channel Maker.

Yesterday that Newspaperofrecord horse is the beat 2 year old filly on the turf in some time. Wow she is good
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Old 11-03-18, 10:42 AM
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The distaff looks like a two horse race between Abel Tasman and Monomoy Girl. I will use both but i kind of like Blue Prize.

Turf mile is wide open. I figure the euros will win it. I think Oscar Performance represents the best shot the Americans have at winning this race
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Old 11-03-18, 11:13 AM
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Starting the day right in the Filly/Mare Sprint with a 25-1 in the first leg of my pick 3.

Dont like my chances in the turf sprint, expecting a crazy result. I used 5,9,11 in that race and in the dirt mile ending the p3 i used 1,7,10. Maybe i get lucky
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Old 11-03-18, 11:49 AM
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Comes back 9-11-5 in a photo between the top 2. Had both. World of Trouble ran huge to finish 2nd. Lets get this pick 3 home. Need 1,7,10
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Old 11-03-18, 12:28 PM
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City of Light!!!!!

Solid start to the day.

Need 1,3,6,10 in the next
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Old 11-03-18, 02:25 PM
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Pick 4s start here. Spreading here.
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Old 11-03-18, 04:05 PM
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Really wanted enable to lose.

Need 6,7,10 for my multi race wagers. Payoffs wont be good
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Old 11-03-18, 04:10 PM
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Impressive win for Enable.
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Old 11-03-18, 08:16 PM
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I thought she was toast on the turn getting floated so wide.

I was way off on the Classic. Couldnt bet John Sadler with his 0 for 40 something record in BC races outside of Cali. Has terrible numbers shipping in general. Was way off on thinking Bob would take it.
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Old 11-04-18, 01:05 PM
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I had a nice day played a 1$ exacta box with 4 horses from each race yesterday 12$ bet ended up with 260.00 , took top 4 M/L favorites in each race also hit the exacta in 7th race friday 10x
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Old 11-04-18, 01:45 PM
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That newspaperofrecord is some horse.

Glad those bets worked out for you. If heavy favorites come in three races in a row, like they did the last 3 races, I wont be making any money with the way I bet. Probably why I did really well in the earlier BC races on the Saturday card. One horse made my day in the Filly and Mare Sprint.
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Old 11-05-18, 11:40 AM
clarkgriswold clarkgriswold is offline
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Was this one of your horses Arrogate?

https://www.si.com/horse-racing/2018...s-breeders-cup
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