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  #181  
Old 11-16-18, 12:18 PM
14Red 14Red is offline
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Off the Reds for just a moment, anyone surprised that Jacob DeGrom won the Cy Young award, with only a 10-9 record but a fantastic 1.70 ERA. Max Scherzer was 18-7, ERA of 2.53, let the majors in innings pitched and strikeouts, let the NL in WHIP.

Now I'm certainly not saying one had that much better of a season than the other, but DeGrom won the Cy Young voting in a landslide. He got 29 of 30 first place votes. I'm surprised it wasn't closer.

I understand that DeGrom's ERA was 1.70 and he gave up very few runs. But a 10-9 record doesn't tell me Cy Young. Are we de-emphasising winning today?
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  #182  
Old 11-16-18, 12:51 PM
14Red 14Red is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thavoice View Post
Indiandad is the George Costanza of Yappi with his wild proposed trades.
I understand the thought process, you basically take Bruce back at $28 mill for 2 years, plop him in right field and hope he's better than Bailey for 1 year, you save $14 mill for next season.

My point is I don't see an upside with taking Bruce for 2 years, heck, I'd keep Schebler out there, who's much cheaper and gives you about the same.
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  #183  
Old 11-16-18, 04:41 PM
HSFB Fan HSFB Fan is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 14Red View Post
I understand the thought process, you basically take Bruce back at $28 mill for 2 years, plop him in right field and hope he's better than Bailey for 1 year, you save $14 mill for next season.

My point is I don't see an upside with taking Bruce for 2 years, heck, I'd keep Schebler out there, who's much cheaper and gives you about the same.
No real upside for the REDS...The METS can go out and buy what they need. The REDS no so much... Sad they are looked at as a farm team for the big clubs...
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  #184  
Old 11-16-18, 06:24 PM
Indiandad Indiandad is online now
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Originally Posted by HSFB Fan View Post
No real upside for the REDS...The METS can go out and buy what they need. The REDS no so much... Sad they are looked at as a farm team for the big clubs...
The Mets have projected payroll of $126M for 2019 without addressing any of their needs in FA. Their highest opening day payroll was $150M I believe. The Wilpons aren't really looking to match that number much less exceed it. Their offense has huge holes and the bullpen is terrible. $24M is not making them a contender. The Mets would rather not part with their Aces in order to fill those holes. What are their options?

Trading Bruce for Bailey would put their payroll near their limit for 2019. 2020 however would look very good for the Mets. Their starting rotation will still be intact and $62.5M will be off the books. That gives them ~$75M to put a team around their rotation for a run in 2020 and 2021.

Ask yourself if the Mets have a shot this year with the current roster or next year with the rotation in tact and $75M to spend.

As for the Reds, Swapping Bailey for Bruce would free up $14M this season. Add to it the reportedly $30M they have to spend and remove Billy from the equation and the Reds are looking at $50M to "get the pitching".

Senzel, Schebler and Winker in the OF with Votto, Gennett, Peraza, Suarez and Barnhart in the IF. Blandino, Casali, Bruce and Ervin on the bench.
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  #185  
Old 11-16-18, 06:56 PM
Indiandad Indiandad is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 14Red View Post
Off the Reds for just a moment, anyone surprised that Jacob DeGrom won the Cy Young award, with only a 10-9 record but a fantastic 1.70 ERA. Max Scherzer was 18-7, ERA of 2.53, let the majors in innings pitched and strikeouts, let the NL in WHIP.

Now I'm certainly not saying one had that much better of a season than the other, but DeGrom won the Cy Young voting in a landslide. He got 29 of 30 first place votes. I'm surprised it wasn't closer.

I understand that DeGrom's ERA was 1.70 and he gave up very few runs. But a 10-9 record doesn't tell me Cy Young. Are we de-emphasising winning today?
If the Mets had scored 2 runs in each of Degrom's starts he would have had 18 wins. 3 runs per game would have given him 30 wins.
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  #186  
Old 11-17-18, 06:21 AM
Indiandad Indiandad is online now
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Reds reportedly are involved heavily in trade discussions for Paxton and Gray.

Paxton has 2 years control left, Gray has one.

Mariners reportedly want a organizational top 5, a mid tier prospect and a MLB player.

Yankees want an organization top 10 for Gray.

Gray should not cost more than a fringe prospect IMO.
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  #187  
Old 11-19-18, 07:05 AM
Taco MacArthur Taco MacArthur is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 14Red View Post
Off the Reds for just a moment, anyone surprised that Jacob DeGrom won the Cy Young award, with only a 10-9 record but a fantastic 1.70 ERA. Max Scherzer was 18-7, ERA of 2.53, let the majors in innings pitched and strikeouts, let the NL in WHIP.

Now I'm certainly not saying one had that much better of a season than the other, but DeGrom won the Cy Young voting in a landslide. He got 29 of 30 first place votes. I'm surprised it wasn't closer.

I understand that DeGrom's ERA was 1.70 and he gave up very few runs. But a 10-9 record doesn't tell me Cy Young. Are we de-emphasising winning today?
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  #188  
Old 11-19-18, 12:12 PM
wolves82 wolves82 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 14Red View Post
Off the Reds for just a moment, anyone surprised that Jacob DeGrom won the Cy Young award, with only a 10-9 record but a fantastic 1.70 ERA. Max Scherzer was 18-7, ERA of 2.53, let the majors in innings pitched and strikeouts, let the NL in WHIP.

Now I'm certainly not saying one had that much better of a season than the other, but DeGrom won the Cy Young voting in a landslide. He got 29 of 30 first place votes. I'm surprised it wasn't closer.

I understand that DeGrom's ERA was 1.70 and he gave up very few runs. But a 10-9 record doesn't tell me Cy Young. Are we de-emphasising winning today?
LOL. Cy Young is for the best pitcher, not the best pitcher on a winning team. I realize advnaced metrics aren't your thing, but check out baseball-reference.com, screen shot below. DeGrom was the right choice. With even average run support he wins 20+ games, easy.



Click image for larger version

Name:	SampleSNAG1.jpg
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Size:	103.3 KB
ID:	2618
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  #189  
Old 11-19-18, 12:18 PM
wolves82 wolves82 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Indiandad View Post
Reds reportedly are involved heavily in trade discussions for Paxton and Gray.

Paxton has 2 years control left, Gray has one.

Mariners reportedly want a organizational top 5, a mid tier prospect and a MLB player.

Yankees want an organization top 10 for Gray.

Gray should not cost more than a fringe prospect IMO.
I heard that also. Paxton has wicked stuff but his numbers are helped by pitching in Safeco. But he would be the Reds #1 right away.

Gray was so impressive with Oakland but turned into hot garbage as a Yankee somehow. Seemed mental - I followed him closely since I had him on a fantasy team for the first half of the year, until is it was clear he was awful. Maybe he doesn't handle NYC pressure and would revert back to his younger form in Cincy? Not sure, but I would agree with you that a fringe prospect is as high as I would go for him.
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  #190  
Old 11-19-18, 08:53 PM
Indiandad Indiandad is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wolves82 View Post
I heard that also. Paxton has wicked stuff but his numbers are helped by pitching in Safeco. But he would be the Reds #1 right away.

Gray was so impressive with Oakland but turned into hot garbage as a Yankee somehow. Seemed mental - I followed him closely since I had him on a fantasy team for the first half of the year, until is it was clear he was awful. Maybe he doesn't handle NYC pressure and would revert back to his younger form in Cincy? Not sure, but I would agree with you that a fringe prospect is as high as I would go for him.
Paxton to the Yankees for Justus Sheffield and 2 others.
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  #191  
Old 11-20-18, 02:50 PM
14Red 14Red is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Indiandad View Post
If the Mets had scored 2 runs in each of Degrom's starts he would have had 18 wins. 3 runs per game would have given him 30 wins.
You did qualify this statement by saying...if...

I understand that DeGrom didn't get run support. That said, he was 10-9, period. Wins and losses are not the only metric for pitcher, but it is one of the top 3 or 4 I would say. I remember Mario Soto was 14-13 one year with Reds, he didn't win a Cy Young.

And I'm not necessarily saying he shouldn't have won, but by a landslide?? What if he's 9-9 instead of 10-9? Is it because he did win double digit wins it looks better?
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  #192  
Old 11-20-18, 03:53 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 14Red View Post
You did qualify this statement by saying...if...

I understand that DeGrom didn't get run support. That said, he was 10-9, period. Wins and losses are not the only metric for pitcher, but it is one of the top 3 or 4 I would say. I remember Mario Soto was 14-13 one year with Reds, he didn't win a Cy Young.

And I'm not necessarily saying he shouldn't have won, but by a landslide?? What if he's 9-9 instead of 10-9? Is it because he did win double digit wins it looks better?
Such an uneducated moron.
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  #193  
Old 11-20-18, 10:22 PM
brianwr112 brianwr112 is offline
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14Red failed to point out that as an NL pitcher, deGrom had the opportunity to bat. If he really wanted to win the Cy Young he would've had 60-70 RBIs and earned more victories.
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  #194  
Old 11-21-18, 12:19 PM
wolves82 wolves82 is offline
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Originally Posted by 14Red View Post
I understand that DeGrom didn't get run support. That said, he was 10-9, period. Wins and losses are not the only metric for pitcher, but it is one of the top 3 or 4 I would say. I remember Mario Soto was 14-13 one year with Reds, he didn't win a Cy Young.

And I'm not necessarily saying he shouldn't have won, but by a landslide?? What if he's 9-9 instead of 10-9? Is it because he did win double digit wins it looks better?
So dense, and terrible at comparisons too. The year Mario was 14-13 (1982) he finished 7th in ERA (2.79), and was 2nd in the league in K's. A decent year, but no where near what DeGrom just did. He finished 9th in the Cy voting. Oh by the way, Steve Carlton won, was something like 23-10 with 20ish complete games. Really no debate here.

I gave you a screen shot of a whole raft of stats showing why DeGrom had the best year of any MLB pitcher, period. Put your little mouse-thingy over that image, click to enlarge it, and read it. He was the best pitcher by far. His team did not score for him. Probably because the Mets lineup is loaded with guys who play great defense. Maybe they are dumb enough to trade for Billy.
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  #195  
Old 11-21-18, 01:58 PM
thavoice thavoice is offline
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Soto finished 9th in the Cy Young balloting the year he was 14-13 and he had an ERA Of 2.79.

The winner that year had an ERA of 3.10.

Interesting to note that Soto has the best WHIP of the 8 pitchers ahead of him. His was 1.06 and the CY winner had 1.147.

Don't remember hearing WHIP being a factor back in the day but that is a matrix I follow as it directly relates to how effective a pitcher is.

MS had 14 less Ks than the CY winner....in 38 LESS innings.

3 RELIEVERS finished ahead of Soto that season.

CY winner had 19 CGs that year to Soto's 13. Do TEAMS even get that many CGs nowadays?


IN looking back on it....about the only stat that the CY winner had in that year over Mario Soto is he was 23-11, they focused HEAVILY on wins that season.

The CY winner had the second WORST ERA of the top 9, yet finished with 20 of the 24 first place votes.

Reds were 61-101 that yaer and the CY winning pitcher's team was 89-73.


WHo knows...maybe if this was 1982 DeGrom would not have won it.
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  #196  
Old 11-22-18, 09:36 AM
Indiandad Indiandad is online now
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The Mets are "seriously considering" trading Syndergaard according John Heyman. Reportedly there are at least 6 teams with serious interest.
According to Heyman the Mets are looking to "fill multiple holes with real impact".
The Mets are looking for controlled players at Catcher, Second base and Centerfield. They are really not interested in low level, high ceiling prospects (Hunter Greene, Jonathan India) as they expect to win now.

What would it take to land Syndergaard?
Could the Reds put a deal together that lands Syndergaard without including Senzel?

I'd offer Barnhart, Shed Long, Nick Longhi and Jose Siri for starters. They'll no doubt want Trammel in place of Siri. I'd upgrade to Trammel and Bailey for Bruce and Syndergaard.

That's a gold glove catcher with 4 years control, a long term high ceiling second basemen, a first basemen who is controlled and a top Centerfield prospect who is controlled.


This would be a revenue neutral type deal that trades from positions of depth.

An addition of Syndergaard could help attract other FA pitchers. Swapping Bailey and Bruce would add a power bench bat and free up additional payroll.
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  #197  
Old 11-22-18, 10:42 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thavoice View Post
Soto finished 9th in the Cy Young balloting the year he was 14-13 and he had an ERA Of 2.79.

The winner that year had an ERA of 3.10.

Interesting to note that Soto has the best WHIP of the 8 pitchers ahead of him. His was 1.06 and the CY winner had 1.147.

Don't remember hearing WHIP being a factor back in the day but that is a matrix I follow as it directly relates to how effective a pitcher is.

MS had 14 less Ks than the CY winner....in 38 LESS innings.

3 RELIEVERS finished ahead of Soto that season.

CY winner had 19 CGs that year to Soto's 13. Do TEAMS even get that many CGs nowadays?


IN looking back on it....about the only stat that the CY winner had in that year over Mario Soto is he was 23-11, they focused HEAVILY on wins that season.

The CY winner had the second WORST ERA of the top 9, yet finished with 20 of the 24 first place votes.

Reds were 61-101 that yaer and the CY winning pitcher's team was 89-73.


WHo knows...maybe if this was 1982 DeGrom would not have won it.
It makes sense 14red is stuck in 1982, pretty sure that was the year of his last raise.
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  #198  
Old 11-22-18, 10:48 AM
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Originally Posted by wolves82 View Post
So dense, and terrible at comparisons too. The year Mario was 14-13 (1982) he finished 7th in ERA (2.79), and was 2nd in the league in K's. A decent year, but no where near what DeGrom just did. He finished 9th in the Cy voting. Oh by the way, Steve Carlton won, was something like 23-10 with 20ish complete games. Really no debate here.

I gave you a screen shot of a whole raft of stats showing why DeGrom had the best year of any MLB pitcher, period. Put your little mouse-thingy over that image, click to enlarge it, and read it. He was the best pitcher by far. His team did not score for him. Probably because the Mets lineup is loaded with guys who play great defense. Maybe they are dumb enough to trade for Billy.
Imo, Soto probably was the best pitcher in the NL that year. Back then, pitching wins was a much more valued stat. We now know how ridiculous it is to value a team statistic over actual individual advanced pitching statistics, which Soto had an advantage over his peer group.
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  #199  
Old 11-23-18, 02:25 PM
TroyTrojan05 TroyTrojan05 is offline
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  #200  
Old 11-26-18, 11:17 AM
14Red 14Red is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thavoice View Post
Soto finished 9th in the Cy Young balloting the year he was 14-13 and he had an ERA Of 2.79.

The winner that year had an ERA of 3.10.

Interesting to note that Soto has the best WHIP of the 8 pitchers ahead of him. His was 1.06 and the CY winner had 1.147.

Don't remember hearing WHIP being a factor back in the day but that is a matrix I follow as it directly relates to how effective a pitcher is.

MS had 14 less Ks than the CY winner....in 38 LESS innings.

3 RELIEVERS finished ahead of Soto that season.

CY winner had 19 CGs that year to Soto's 13. Do TEAMS even get that many CGs nowadays?


IN looking back on it....about the only stat that the CY winner had in that year over Mario Soto is he was 23-11, they focused HEAVILY on wins that season.

The CY winner had the second WORST ERA of the top 9, yet finished with 20 of the 24 first place votes.

Reds were 61-101 that yaer and the CY winning pitcher's team was 89-73.


WHo knows...maybe if this was 1982 DeGrom would not have won it.
I'll guarantee that. They took into account winning back then. After all, baseball is a team game.
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  #201  
Old 11-26-18, 11:21 AM
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Originally Posted by Indiandad View Post
The Mets are "seriously considering" trading Syndergaard according John Heyman. Reportedly there are at least 6 teams with serious interest.
According to Heyman the Mets are looking to "fill multiple holes with real impact".
The Mets are looking for controlled players at Catcher, Second base and Centerfield. They are really not interested in low level, high ceiling prospects (Hunter Greene, Jonathan India) as they expect to win now.

What would it take to land Syndergaard?
Could the Reds put a deal together that lands Syndergaard without including Senzel?

I'd offer Barnhart, Shed Long, Nick Longhi and Jose Siri for starters. They'll no doubt want Trammel in place of Siri. I'd upgrade to Trammel and Bailey for Bruce and Syndergaard.

That's a gold glove catcher with 4 years control, a long term high ceiling second basemen, a first basemen who is controlled and a top Centerfield prospect who is controlled.


This would be a revenue neutral type deal that trades from positions of depth.

An addition of Syndergaard could help attract other FA pitchers. Swapping Bailey and Bruce would add a power bench bat and free up additional payroll.
I would be very, very leery of Syndergaard unless we can sign him to an incentive laden contract. We are just coming off of Bailey's contract, the last thing we need is another injury prone pitcher who we pay alot of money to. My guess is there is some other sucker team who'll pony up the money for him that can afford him to flame out. Yu Darvish and the Cubs come to mind.
I'd rather the Reds get solid #2/#3 type starters who have more upside. We can't afford to swing and miss.
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  #202  
Old 11-26-18, 02:12 PM
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Originally Posted by 14Red View Post
I would be very, very leery of Syndergaard unless we can sign him to an incentive laden contract. We are just coming off of Bailey's contract, the last thing we need is another injury prone pitcher who we pay alot of money to. My guess is there is some other sucker team who'll pony up the money for him that can afford him to flame out. Yu Darvish and the Cubs come to mind.
I'd rather the Reds get solid #2/#3 type starters who have more upside. We can't afford to swing and miss.
Syndergaard has 3 years of arbitration left including ~$5.9M in 2019. There is literally no financial risk trading for him. The only questions are "what are the Reds willing to give up" and "what do the Mets want". You just have to make those two answers jive up.

For reference.... $5.9M is also the estimated arbitration salary for Billy Hamilton. I'd take Syndergaard over Billy everyday.
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  #203  
Old 11-26-18, 09:22 PM
Indiandad Indiandad is online now
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Does Riggleman signing on as Mets bench coach help facilitate a trade with the Reds or does it not matter?
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  #204  
Old 11-27-18, 06:04 AM
Monclova Steve Monclova Steve is offline
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I suppose he might be asked for his input on various players if the Mets were considering a trade with the Reds. That would be the extent of it, though.
The fact that he's now the bench coach is not a significant factor when it comes to helping to facilitate a trade.
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  #205  
Old 11-27-18, 07:19 AM
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I suppose he might be asked for his input on various players if the Mets were considering a trade with the Reds. That would be the extent of it, though.
The fact that he's now the bench coach is not a significant factor when it comes to helping to facilitate a trade.
I would agree. He would bring additional insight into the Reds organization. Things such as player attitudes/work ethic, the intangibles.
We all can look at stats of players but we don't know things like "coachability", a player's commitment to the game, is he guy who is willing to study film to get an edge or is it all just raw talent. We don't know his clubhouse demeanor, or his leadership (or lack of) ability.

These insights are important but only matter if there is already a consideration of a trade by both sides. It might help push a trade over the finish line or put the brakes on it.
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  #206  
Old 11-27-18, 11:04 AM
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Originally Posted by Indiandad View Post
Syndergaard has 3 years of arbitration left including ~$5.9M in 2019. There is literally no financial risk trading for him. The only questions are "what are the Reds willing to give up" and "what do the Mets want". You just have to make those two answers jive up.

For reference.... $5.9M is also the estimated arbitration salary for Billy Hamilton. I'd take Syndergaard over Billy everyday.
Why do the Mets want to unload him? In a time when starting pitching is so valued, why would a team not keep him? That's what would worry me.
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  #207  
Old 11-27-18, 12:45 PM
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Originally Posted by 14Red View Post
Why do the Mets want to unload him? In a time when starting pitching is so valued, why would a team not keep him? That's what would worry me.
Was there ever a time when starting pitching was not valued? you could argue the value is diminishing just in the last couple years, as teams have 13-14 pitchers on the roster and they change pitchers at the drop of a hat.

Not sure why the Mets would want to trade Thor. I surely would not. Maybe because he is young, handsome and blonde he gets all the best girls and his teammates hate him. But if he is available, any team would be silly not to make an offer.

Riggleman liked Billy - maybe this works itself out...
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  #208  
Old 11-27-18, 01:18 PM
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Why do the Mets want to unload him? In a time when starting pitching is so valued, why would a team not keep him? That's what would worry me.
Because their farm system sucks even more than their big league roster. The Mets are rightly trying to turn a great pitcher into several big league players to improve both the current team and the farm system.

No one else can do that for them.
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  #209  
Old 11-28-18, 10:29 AM
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Originally Posted by eastside_purple View Post
It makes sense 14red is stuck in 1982, pretty sure that was the year of his last raise.
Nay, Taco Bell gives yearly raises.
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  #210  
Old 11-28-18, 11:00 AM
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Go figure....Reds actually sign someone, Iglesias, and all we talk about it George Costanza trades.


3 years, 24 million.

NOt bad, but I cannot get excited for BP signings
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