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  #1  
Old 01-03-17, 09:42 AM
bdhof bdhof is offline
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A Closer Look at Iowa, PSU, OkS and OSU in the NCAA Team Race

Note: This post was edited to reflect 1/5/2017 ratings.

With the start of the new year, I'll take a close look at the four teams competing for the NCAA team title, Iowa, PSU, OkS and OSU. I know, I know, MyMar is pathetic and Pletcher is too small, and the Buckeyes don't have a chance. To those that spout such garbage I say, "Wait til Hunter gets back!" Oh, never mind, he's not coming back. How about, "It's early January and not mid March." Regardless, they're included because, in spite of MyMar and Pletcher's performance in the Midlands, OSU still is a pretty good team, although this week's rankings will show them slipping behind the other three. I don't know how much computer time I have in me today (I'm retired and therefore can't spend all day on Yappi like those of you at work), but my thought was to do a team a day for the next four days, and I'll start today with the team everyone is forgetting about, Iowa.

But wait! There's more! In addition to Iowa I'll throw in three bonus teams, The Cinderellas for free - just pay extra shipping and handling.

The Cinderellas
Three teams that looked pretty good going into this season were Mich, Mizz and VT. I think each of them had lineups that could challenge Iowa, PSU, OkS or OSU. Without too much detail, here's the problem with each:

Michigan
Their hopes ended when the season just began as AAs Coon and Pantaleo RS due to injuries, quickly followed by highly ranked Abounader. Along with freshmen Micic, #8 @ 133, Massa, #2 @ 165, and Amine, #9 @ 174, they had #10 Murphy at 157. OK, that's not a team that'll challenge the top four, but it's another B10 team that's pretty darn good. Maybe next year they'll bump into the top four. Sorry, Michigan, you're not Cinderlla, your foot is too fat.

Mizz
Here's their last week IM rankings:
125 14
133 15
141 11
149 4
157 7
165 8
174 NR
184 NR
197 1
285 NR
They have a really nice lineup, but they've been banged up a lot. If healthy, they're a dangerous dual meet team (just ask VT), but only have one hammer (1-3) and too many bubble guys (7-12) to really be a threat to break into the top four at the NCAAs. Sorry, Mizz, you're not Cinderlla, your foot is too fat.

VT
Here's their last week IM rankings:
125 2
133 NR
141 NR
149 7
157 15
165 NR
174 2
184 4
197 3
285 3
Now, this is a very good NCAA lineup with 4 hammers (1-3), a mid level AA (4-6), a bubble (7-12) and one other ranked (13-20). Last year they edged out Iowa for 4th by a point, and fell just 4 points behind 3rd place OSU. Their problem is that I don't think they have very much upside, and are chasing four very good teams. One or two of these top four could under perform and be passed by VT, but not all four. So, top four or even three is possible, but no championship here. Sorry, VT, you're not Cinderlla, your foot is too fat.

After I rest my fingers, we're on to the final four, starting with Iowa.

Last edited by bdhof; 01-05-17 at 06:53 PM.
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  #2  
Old 01-03-17, 11:11 AM
bdhof bdhof is offline
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Iowa

Note:This post was edited to reflect 1/5/17 rankings.

I enjoyed reading some of the discussion on the Southern Scuffle thread about whether or not PSU needs Mark Hall in the lineup, and comparing PSU to OkS in making that decision.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Divided42 View Post
I don't think he does, they don't need him.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Yankeefan33 View Post
Breaking down rosters (PSU and OkS), it doesn't seem like Penn State needs Hall:
I know my two Yappi friends quoted above follow the college results, but they must have missed the Midlands, where Iowa just crushed the field. And, BTW, 285 Stoll is back, making his 2016-17 debut, and he looked really good. And, in a post tournament interview, Brands said Clark, out for a month with an injury, will be back in the lineup next week. The only way I see Iowa not competing for the title is if Stoll and/or Clark can't compete. And, BTW, Marinelli looked very solid and likely will be pulling his RS after a 4th place finish.

Here's their Lineup:
125 Gilman Rank Consensus #1
I believe Gilman is in a group of top ranked guys that likely won't be challenged now that Nate is up a weight and Mega is gone. I put him in that group with the likes of Zain, Nolf, IMar, Dean, Cox and Snyder. Now, some of these guys, including Gilman, could have close matches or even lose a match, but they'll win when it counts.
133 Clark Rank 1, 1, 1, NR, NR
Clark was dropped from the rankings by TOM and AWN this week because of his 6 week hiatus. He's listed as a "probable" for this weekend"s matches, and Brands said he was a go in an interview last week. If healthy, I don't see him falling more than a spot or two in the NCAAs, but he's not in that group of elite top tier guys like those mentioned above. If his injury effects his performance, lingers on, or is re-aggravated, that would be a near deadly blow to Iowa's chances.
141 Carton Rank 15, 19, NR, NR, NR
Carton is started to get a little attention in a weight that is fluid, but pretty solid near the podium. Not a likely placer, but a decent wrestler who will likely be a NQ.
149 Sorenson Rank Consensus #2
While he's done nothing to make anyone think he doesn't deserve this ranking, I'll be real interested in seeing Micah go up against him. He doesn't beat Zain, and could drop maybe a spot, but he's very good, as proven by his past performances.
157 Kemerer Rank 2, 2, 2, 3, 4
This is the freshman that only those in Iowa are talking about. His rankings were on the rise this week after winning the Midlands, beating NCAA champ TShirt by MD and #5 Berger. And I know, TShirt didn't look like the TShirt of old, but this freshman still beat a NCAA champ. He'll meet later this month with #3 Jo Smith and #1 Nolf. Stay tuned.
165 Marinelli Unranked
I'm assuming that his RS is pulled this week, because Iowa needs to go all in this year as they have 4 ranked seniors in their lineup - Gilman, Clark, Meyer and Brooks. He had a solid week placing 4th in the Midlands, and will show up in the rankings, mid teens or so, when the RS comes off.
174 Meyer Ranked 11, 11, 12, 13, 13
A returning AA, he lost to 2 lower ranked opponents at the Midlands placing 4th, and slipped from a mid level AA/bubble to a low bubble. He could still AA this year, but would have to be better than he has been thus far in the season.
184 Brooks Ranked 5, 5, 5, 6, 6
A returning AA, he lost to a lower ranked opponent placing 3rd, but improved in the rankings somehow. This weight is very unsettled and fluid beyond Dean at #1, so I see him anywhere from a 3 to off the podium.
197 Wilcke Unranked
This is a hole in the lineup. Enough said.
285 Stoll Rank 6, 7, 7, 9, NR
He looked healthy and good at Midlands and every ounce of 285 lbs, wrestling 6 matches in his season debut losing only to #4 Hall 2-1. Someone forgot to tell TOM that Stoll was back in the lineup, as they still have him NR. And, after a solid performance at the Midlands, he somehow dropped slightly. This is bad news for PSU as they have a 285 challenging for that mid level AA range as well.

I'll let this weeks rankings speak for themselves, but this Iowa lineup (per IM rankings) features 4 hammers (1-3), 2 mid level AAs (4-6), 1 other ranked (13-20), and 2 holes. Kemmerer has given them a potential finalist that they didn't think they had. The biggest questions are the health of Clark and how much Marinelli will contribute. This is a solid lineup that will compete with anyone for an NCAA title.

Tomorrow I'll give you my take on PSU or OkS (haven't decided which one yet). And the weekly rankings should be out, which will help my analysis. I'll save OSU for last because I'm still contemplating my strategy to make them champs again.

Last edited by bdhof; 01-06-17 at 12:26 PM.
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Old 01-04-17, 10:51 AM
bdhof bdhof is offline
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OkS

Note: This post was edited to reflect 1/5/17 rankings.

I went with OkS today over PSU just because it seems like there's a lot of Bromance here for PSU, so I'll save them for day three and round things up on Friday with OSU (also a lot of Bromance including me).

In my previous post I accused my good Yappi friends, Divided42 and Yankeefan33, of missing the Midlands, as they disregarded Iowa in their assumption that Mark Hall will keep his RS since they don't need him, ignoring the dominant performance that Iowa put on at that tournament. Come to think of it, they must have missed the Southern Scuffle as well, with the exception of Mark Hall, because OkS crushed the field there. A conclusion that PSU doesn't need Mark Hall in the lineup because they can still beat OkS may be true, but at this point in the season, OkS AND Iowa are just as loaded as PSU and an NCAA held today could have any of those three teams emerge as champs. And OSU isn't far behind, but is trailing the pack right now. Now, on to OkS.

Here's their lineup:
125 Piccininni Rank 11, 12, 12, 13, 14
He's a bubble guy and the Scuffle didn't really help him or hurt him. His upside and downside is right in that bubble range, could place low or be a R12 or R16 guy.
133 Brock Rank 3, 5, 5, 6, 6
As with Piccininni, I think his rankings are pretty solid. The top tier is better than him, Nate, Clark and Richards, and he is better than the end of the podium. So, he's a solid mid level AA.
141 Heil Rank Consensus #1
The defending NCAA champ does nothing but win, but he doesn't win big. He can't go up in the rankings, but could go down, but not far. I can't imagine him losing in the NCAAs to anyone other than McKenna, and he beats McKenna more often than not. BTW, he's up on McKenna 2-0 on a SV and TB, both last year. And I do know that Dicamillo gave him all he wanted in the SS and Ward was close to him as well, but No one is better than Heil at winning the close ones. And, btw, there's some pretty good Ohio boys at 141.
149 Collica Rank Consensus #3
I think the top spot is pretty settled in this weight, but I think 2-5 is up for grabs. Sorenson is 2-0 on Collica, and should be a solid #2, but I think being a bridesmaid and not the bride can wear on you so I view Sorenson as beatable. But Collica, an AA, can't forget about Mayes and Jordan behind him.
157 Smith Rank 3, 5, 5, 5, 6
I think AA Smith, after an upset loss in the SS finals, could still go as high as 2 and no worse than 6. Iowa's Kemmerer is the the wild card here, and they will meet later this month. The top seems set with Nolf, unless Kemmerer keeps winning, but Smith is a solid 2-6.
165 Rogers Rank 4, 4, 6, 7, 11
Rogers has been inconsistent, losing to some lower ranked guys, but won the SS, pinning #4 ranked Lewis. The rankings are all over the place, which matches his inconsistency. In spite of his win over Lewis, I think 1-4 are solid at this weight and 5-10 are fluid.
174 Crutchmer Rank Consensus #5
He's a 2015 AA, so you know he's good. I think he's a solid mid level AA and could go up a few notches from his current rank to about 4.
184 Boyd Rank 4, 4, 4, 5, 5
I think this is one of those weights where you can take 2-8 and put them in a hat, shake them up, and see who places where. Dean is the class of this field, and everyone else is right in the mix. It all depends on who is healthy and hot in mid March. So, Boyd, another OkS AA, has some upside as well as some downside.
197 Weigel Rank Consensus #4
It is just me, or does it seem like the entire OkS team has the same 4-6 rankings? This weight is settled at the top 2. Then 3-6 is better than the rest, but unsettled. Weigel is a solid mid level AA.
285 Schafer Rank 7, 7, 8, 9, 9
Schafer, a rookie senior, has been a pleasant surprise for OkS. This looked like a hole in a very solid OkS lineup, but he has won consistently and finished 3rd at the SS. Personally, I don't see him beating the top seven 285s, and see him challenging for the 8th and final spot on the podium. But others see him as high as 7. 285s tend to have a lot of 2-1 type matches, but I look at the field and see plenty of scorers this year. The top 3 are set, and the rest will battle for the other podium spots. Like Stoll at Iowa, this crowds the field at 285 in the team title race with Nevills in the mix as well.

That's about as solid of a lineup as you get going into March. They can absorb an upset or two and still win it all. The only thing they lack is 3 or 4 sure thing top 3, like some of their competitors have. This lineup (per IM) has 2 hammers (1-3), 5 mid level AAs (4-6), and 3 bubbles (7-12). That's solid, especially looking at the top 7 in their lineup. The B12 is relatively weak, but they do have a dual with Iowa later this month, and then will likely square off with either PSU or OSU in the NWCA Dual Series.

Tomorrow I'll look at PSU's lineup and OSU's on Friday.

Last edited by bdhof; 01-06-17 at 12:02 PM.
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Old 01-04-17, 10:51 PM
Pope Francis 1 Pope Francis 1 is offline
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As "VegasInsider.com" Handicapper of the Year for 2016, I look forward to revealing my shocking picks for the NCAA wrestling team race later this season. I'm still gathering inside information which is not available to many of you deplorables out in Yappiville.

I hate to toot my own horn, but I'll make an exception this one time.
Recent handicapping highlights for 2016: (all certified and documented)
NFL- my picks were 19-1 (includes preseason) as I picked the Browns to lose every week.
NCAA- accurately predicted Clemson would blow out OSU by 20+
HS FB- shocked the world by picking St X over Iggys a month after Iggys had just hammered St. X late in the regular season
NCAA 2016 wrestling- nailed the top 5 teams in order
B10 2016 bdhof wrestling pick em contest - I was in first place after round 1 when the Russians hacked into the system and caused chaos....
So stay tuned for your 2017 NCAA wrestling championship team....you'll be shocked

Last edited by Pope Francis 1; 01-04-17 at 11:01 PM. Reason: Typo
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Old 01-04-17, 11:09 PM
Pope Francis 1 Pope Francis 1 is offline
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Just in case you doubt me.........here's 2016 B10 pick 'em....round 1 results

I think this is correct, but whenever I mess with this spreadsheet, which I do once a year, I have to reacquaint myself with everything so I may have screwed up. I did check a few teams the old fashion way and they look correct. What concerns me the most about the accuracy of my spreadsheet is that it is showing Pope Francis 1 as the leader, which makes me believe that this is really screwed up. If anyone sees any discrepancies with your score, let me know and I'll try to figure out if I have glitches in the system.

Session I

1 Pope Francis 1 71
2 Yankeefan33 70
3 nkawtg135 69
4 Boro Fan 68
5 kklotz 68
6 MAT FAN 67.5
7 galewrestling 65
8 CincyWrestler 64.5
9 Veto 64.5
10 said_aouita 63
11 brutusthebarber 62
12 Projectile 62
13 Olympian888 59.5
14 avnspc 58.5
15 Spectator13 58.5
16 gumby 56.5
17 Coachthemup 55.5
18 3timer 55
19 Bear73 54.5
20 salto 54.5
21 wrestlingnut 54.5
22 CoachTim 53.5
23 Growler 53.5
24 TakedownFor2 53
25 Warrior152 52.5
26 wjjsj 52
27 beaverfan 51
28 ChiefPriest 51
29 bdhof 49.5
30 brianwr112 49.5
31 FirestoneFan 47
32 topwrestler 46
33 OrrvilleWrestling 45.5
34 WrestlingChief 45.5
35 republic 45
36 NEohiowrestler 43.5
37 Wrassle 43.5
38 Cramer 43
39 jmog 43
40 the flash 40
41 Standing Granby 39
42 king82 37.5
43 Sunnyred 37
44 Jason L. Jackson 36.5
45 Pile Driver 35
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Old 01-04-17, 11:32 PM
Yankeefan33 Yankeefan33 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bdhof View Post
I went with OkS today over PSU just because it seems like there's a lot of Bromance here for PSU
...
In my previous post I accused my good Yappi friends, Divided42 and Yankeefan33,
Thanks for acknowledging our friendship. And the bromance for PSU is me, but mostly just for Zain Retherford.

Really like the breakdowns. I think there are two weights here that mess things up: 197 and heavyweight. 197 is a total mess after J'Den and Brett Pfarr. Weigel is good, but the only ranked guy he's beat this year is Tom Sleigh. I also think guys 3-9 are all together, and that doesn't include Beazley, Harner, Robertson, and maybe Mattiace who all have looked decent so far. Draws are going to factor in here big time

Heavyweight is also a mess. Snyder is the clear #1. 2 and 3 are Medbery/Walz. 4/5 are Hall and Kroells. Except Kroells lost to Schafer. Who lost to Kasper. Who got pinned by someone named Ben Stone. We haven't seen Nevills wrestle anybody either. And Sam Stoll is good, right? Schafer could finish 6th. Or he could lose R12. I think Stoll and Nevills outplace him, though, or else the draws prevent that result.

Still think Penn State is the #1 because of Retherford, Nolf, and Nickal. Those three guys will put up bonus at NCAAs, and it's like having another wrestler out there with the bonus points they put up.
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Old 01-05-17, 11:04 AM
bdhof bdhof is offline
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Psu

My NCAA Rankings 1/5/17 should come out later today, but it will look similar to last week, with OkS leading in the Rankings only model and PSU leading in the Rankings plus bonus points. Iowa and OSU will both be falling back, Iowa, because Clark is absent from 2 polls and Stoll absent from 1, and OSU because MyMar has fallen from grace. While January 1 is usually the national "Pull the Red Shirt" day, neither Iowa, with Marinelli, nor PSU, with Mark Hall have undressed their stars. We do know this about PSU, they are really good and might win with or without Hall. They have, IMO, the best coach in the nation and have won 5 of the last 6 NCAA titles. The year they didn't win it, they redshirted Zain, Nolf, Nickal and Mega, perhaps sitting enough points to beat OSU in 2015.

And as good as they have been with Cael, a few of their titles have come by extremely slim margins, besting OkS by 4 points in 2013 and Minn by 5.5 in 2014. To put that in perspective, an 8th place finisher scores 5.5 points. That's tight. And the biggest question I have about PSU is that they've wrestled perhaps the weakest schedule of any D1 program in the nation. The only dual meet of note was their match with #10 Lehigh. While probably every top 25 team wrestled in either the CKLV, Midlands or SS (some teams entered two of the three), PSU chose to go to Reno, where OkS's reserve team took the title after PSU canceled due to weather. But they did host the Keystone Classic, where unranked Pitt finished 2nd.

OK, enough trashing them. And we know that some of them are really good, like Zain, Nolf, Nickal and Suriano. After that there's a lot of questions.

On to the lineup:
125 Suriano Rank 3, 3, 3, 3, 4
There was speculation that he would be very good, and that has played out as he has beaten two ranked guys. I think Gilman is the best at 125, but Suriano can probably go with #2 Dance. However, I wouldn't be shocked to see him drop somewhat. He has wrestled one top 8 opponent, #8 Cruz, so maybe he's not a title threat and is a mid level AA. time will tell.
133 Cortez Rank 12, 13, 15, NR, NR
His claim to fame was that he beat teammate AA Conway last year, so he must be really good. I think when you wrestle someone in the practice room every day, things can be closer than they would be for a non familiar opponent. His only two ranked opponents this year are losses to #9 Parker and #11 Devoy. He looks closer to a R16 than a bubble.
141 Gulibon Rank 10, 12, NR, NR, NR
This 2015 AA never seemed to put it together last year after bumping up a weight. He did have a few good matches, like beating Micah at the B10s, but pretty much under performed other than that. This year has been much the same, minus any good wins. He has losses to #10 Cruz, UR Springer, UR Enriquez and #3 McKenna. I'm struggling to find justification for his 10 & 12 ranks above.
149 Retherford Rank Consensus #1
Enough said.
157 Nolf Rank Consensus #1
He's not Zain, but pretty close. Although some Iowa folks will mention that they have an undefeated freshman named Kemmerer who's lighting it up this year. That could pose a challenge to Nolf. We'll see in a few weeks.
165 Joseph Rank 4, 5, 7, 7, 8
Joseph is having a good year, beating #6 Walsh, #13 Campbell and #20 Womack. I think this is a weight where 1-3 is better than 4-9, and that group could be fluid. Mlthough Joseph looks to be the best of that bunch right now.
174 Rasheed/Morelli Rank 12, 14, 14, 14, 14
Raheed has lost to #6 Preisch and Morelli has beaten #16 Wilson. Oh, and Rasheed beat Morelli in a TB. Clearly a bubble here at best, and maybe a R16 instead. Wouldn't it be nice to have a solid 3 or 4 instead?
184 Nickal Rank Consensus #2
The only problem I have here is that He's at a new weight and has wrestled one quality opponent, a MD over #12 Schneider. Some guys have trouble with new weights, take Martin for example. I don't think anyone beats Dean here. And I would think Nickal might be 2nd best, but until he wrestles some of the other top guys, I don't really know. It would have been nice to see him compete at the SS.
197 McCutcheon Rank 5, 7, 10, 11, 12
In other words, who knows? The lack of a quality holiday tourny leaves you wondering if he's a 5 or a 12 or somewhere in between. He showed some promise a couple of years ago, and then I think he's been battling injuries. He's beaten #15 Mattice this year, so that kind of puts him as a bubble or better, right in line with his rankings.
285 Nevills Rank 4, 4, 4, 5, 6
He has scraped together a decent resume, considering the schedule that PSU has wrestled, having beaten #18 Vollaro, #13 Dejournette and #10 Butler. But I think his rankings are high given that he hasn't wrestled or beaten any of the top guys. I see 285 as a clear #1, then 2 & 3 better than the rest, and then 4-9 unsettled. He fits into that group, but I don't know if he's at the top of that group or the bottom of that group. Once again, it would have been nice to see PSU compete in a quality tourny.

As the B10 schedule moves thru the month, some of the questions about this team will be answered. Clearly they're very good, and probably the best or second best team right now. Cael must have some really good vibes about some of the unknowns that I have, and feel really good about all the bubbles.

This team (per IM) has 4 hammers (1-3), 2 mid level AAs (4-6), 2 bubbles (7-12) and 2 other ranked (13-20).

Tomorrow I'll take a look at OSU, and, hopefully, devise a path to B10 and NCAA titles. Wish me luck.

Last edited by bdhof; 01-05-17 at 11:20 AM.
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Old 01-06-17, 11:02 AM
bdhof bdhof is offline
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Osu

The big question moving forward is whether or not OSU can stay with OkS, PSU and Iowa and challenge for a national title. Before we get to that question, let's look at their lineup.

125 Rodriquez Rank 7, 9, 9, 10, 11
Jose has had an incredibly impressive season so far, losing only to #2 Dance on a td with 6 seconds left in the match and #8 Cruz 2-1. He is clearly in that bubble range, as his rankings suggest, but it wouldn't be hard to imagine him going as high as 4th. He'll be tested mightily in the coming weeks as he'll face #1 Gilman, #3 Suriano, #5 Lambert and #6 Lizak. It would be nice to see him win the last two of these match-ups, and keep the first two reasonably close.
133 Tomasello Rank 1, 1, 2, 2, 2
Iowa's Clark will likely replace Nate at the top of the board when he returns to the lineup, rumored to be this weekend. Tomasello has only one ranked win, a close 3-2 victory in the CKLV finals over #8 Micic. He'll have plenty of opportunities to prove whether or not he can be as successful at 133 as he was at 125, as he'll face #4 Richards, #1 Clark, #13 Cortez and #3 Montoya prior to the B10 tourny. Bumping a weight can be an adjustment. Your opponents are stronger and taller. But your can counter by being quicker. There is no doubt in my mind that Tomasello can and will make the adjustments necessary. The only question is, will those adjustments translate into a NCAA championship or a slot down or two on the podium. A healthy Clark is a tossup vs Nate. And the other top contenders aren't far behind.
141 Pletcher Rank 16, 17, NR, NR, NR
I thought Luke would fall from the rankings after not placing at the Midlands. He stayed in the two where he was previously ranked. A true 133 and small 141, he doesn't look like a placer at the NCAAs, but could add value at the B10s, where his competitors are ranked 6, 9, 12, 13, 14 and 16. He can compete with that group for a decent podium spot at the B10s. He'll face 14 and 6 this weekend, then 12, 13 and 9 as a warm-up to the B10s. He has a quality win over #19 Smith.
149 Jordan Rank 4, 5, 5, 5, 5
We all know that Zain will win this, but I think Sorenson at #2 is beatable. Micah, along with Collica and Mayes, represent the next group at this weight. I see Micah as better than Collica and Mayes, and a real challenge to Sorenson. He'll get an opportunity later this month, and again in the B10 semis to beat Sorenson and bump his rankings. And, while I don't see him beating Zain, I think he can give him a decent match. His quality wins this year are over #6 Oliver, twice, #9 Lugo and #10 Gardner, and none have been close.
157 Ryan Rank NR
Jake, last year, rose to about a #10 before losing important matches in the B10s and NCAAs. I think last year's high rankings were, in part, due to a soft schedule early on. He wasn't really mowing down quality opponents, although he did have some good wins. This year, he's faced tougher competition thus far, IMO. I don't think it would take a lot to get him back to where he was last year, which is a R12 type of guy. He'll face #19 Brill this weekend, which would be a good start for him to get back to where I think he should be.
165 Burcher Rank NR
Cody is a guy that you have to really like. He was not a high profile recruit, and probably never projected as a starter. He doesn't have AA written on his chest, but he gives you a great match consistently. He was a 149 when OSU needed a 149, and performed admirably. This year, while no quality wins, he has a nice collection of quality losses - 4-3 and 5-3 to #9 Valencia, SV to #20 Womack and 6-1 to #8 Lewis. I think he can end up 5-8 in the B10s and be a NQ.
174 Jordan Rank 1, 1, 1, 2, 3
There are questions about Bo, since he hasn't wrestled a lot this year, and he's at a new weight. And there's some answers too, since he's a 2x AA, placing 3rd and 3rd, and hasn't lost to anyone not named Jordan or Deringer. And on the new weight, many would argue that 174 is his ideal weight, not 165 which he wrestled the last two years. The B10 is rather weak at this weight, featuring only #9 Amine, #12 Brunson, #13 Meyer, and #14 Rasheed/Morelli. The competition would increase dramatically, however, if Mark Hall is added to the scene. In spite of his lack of mat time and performing at a new weight, I think he's the best at this weight, even if Hall enters the fray.
184 Martin Rank 8, 9, 10, 10, 11
Did MyMar just win the lottery last year, or is he struggling at his new weight, or is he just doing fine, thank you and will perform when the chips are down. Who knows? It is pretty remarkable that he ran the table as a #11 seed last year. That set the stage for great expectations this year, something that he hasn't able to match thus far. One thing he had going for him last year was 174 was very balanced other than Nickal being the favorite at #1. It was a weight where you could put everyone in a hat and shake them up and pull out the placers. As evidence, on his way to a title last year, he beat unseeded Wanzek in rd 1, #6 Hammond in rd 2, unseeded Reed in rd 3 (who beat the #3 seed) and unseeded Weatherspoon in rd 4 (who beat the #2 seed). So everybody beat everybody, he knocks off a #6 on his way to the finals, and wrestlers the match of his life and wins a title. Now, in his defense, you have to be very good to win a NCAA title, and he had one close match with Nickal prior to the finals, so he knew he could stay with him. Can he pull the magic again? I wouldn't count him out, but I don't see anyone beating Dean. The rest of the field kind of looks like what he navigated last year. But right now, he looks like a bubble, with an NCAA title in his pocket. He has a quality win over #12 Schneider and losses to #8 Dechow, #4 Zavesky and RS AA Renda. So, he's not exactly loosing to a bunch of chumps. Still, we hope for more from a national champ.
197 Moore Rank 5, 5, 5, 6, 6
What a great year so far for this young man. In spite of his close match with Cox, I think both Cox and Pfarr are the two best at this weight. Then I think Moore can compete with anyone, and I don't see him falling below his current ranking of mid level AA. He has quality wins over #13 Robertson, who he will face again this weekend, and #20 Greigo.
285 Snyder Rank Consensus #1
Let's see, 2nd in NCAA as true freshman, then World Champ, then NCAA champ beating 2x champ Gwiazdowski, then Olympic champ. I don't think there's anyone that can give Snyder a reasonably close match. The problem with the other top guy, like Medbery and Waltz, is that they aren't real big. They're smaller, mobile wrestlers like Snyder. I think a giant like Coon could pose more of a threat, and he's out this year. And I know Snyder beat Coon, but that's the kind of guy that I think could pull an upset, if anyone can, and probably no one can.

This is a team that has four top level guys in Tomasello, both Jordans and Snyder, a returning NCAA champ in Martin, and Moore, who can place as high as 3rd. Then they have 3 guys that should be NQs and may score a few points. That team can and will stay in the picture as a strong contender, although they're chasing the field right now. With the B10 schedule going into high gear, this season is just beginning.

Last edited by bdhof; 01-06-17 at 11:53 AM.
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  #9  
Old 01-06-17, 11:57 AM
Yankeefan33 Yankeefan33 is offline
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Originally Posted by bdhof View Post
149 Jordan Rank 4, 5, 5, 5, 5
We all know that Zain will win this, but I think Sorenson at #2 is beatable. Micah, along with Collica and Mayes, represent the next group at this weight. I see Micah as better than Collica and Mayes, and a real challenge to Sorenson. He'll get an opportunity later this month, and again in the B10 semis to beat Sorenson and bump his rankings. And, while I don't see him beating Zain, I think he can give him a decent match. His quality wins this year are over #6 Oliver, twice, #9 Lugo and #10 Gardner, and none have been close.
Man this is a bold claim, seeing as Sorensen hasn't lost to anyone not named Zain Retherford the last two years. Micah didn't even place last year- I'm pretty high on him as well, but I think you're selling Sorensen a little short.
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Old 01-06-17, 12:16 PM
bdhof bdhof is offline
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Originally Posted by Yankeefan33 View Post
Man this is a bold claim, seeing as Sorensen hasn't lost to anyone not named Zain Retherford the last two years. Micah didn't even place last year- I'm pretty high on him as well, but I think you're selling Sorensen a little short.
Smart money would be with you on this one. However, I think Micah is on a tear, and undervalued right now. And I wonder if Sorenson will suffer from the bridesmaid effect, always the bridesmaid and never the bride. It has to wear on him that he isn't close to Zain. And I don't think the separation between Sorenson and the next few in line, including Micah, is that great. He had 5 victories last year within 2 points, including one with Collica. He's not Zain, just a very good #2 who is beatable.
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Old 01-06-17, 01:21 PM
eucwrestler eucwrestler is offline
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bdhof, do you think Nebraska has an outside shot at challenging for a top 4 spot? Yes, they have 2 holes at 149 and 165, but Iowa seems to have 2 holes as well at 165 (as of now) and 197. They have potential finalists at 133, 157, 184 and ill throw in 197 because I really like Studebaker. Lambert looks like a high placer, and Jensen looks like a real AA contender. One other flaw is Colton McCrystal. He did pin Mike Longo at the Midlands (Returning NQ), beat Jared Prince, Bryce Meredith, and Javier Gasca. However he lost to Kanen Storr, Henry Pohlymer, and his own teammate Collin Purinton. So when I look at the lineup I see 6 AA's, and 3 other NQs. That seems to be on the same track as OSU, OkSt, Iowa, and PSU.

And yes, I am still upset abiut the Berger vs Kermerer result from the Midlands. The refs missed two TDs by Berger
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Old 01-06-17, 01:39 PM
bdhof bdhof is offline
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A Closer Look at Iowa, PSU, OkS and OSU in the NCAA Team Race

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Originally Posted by eucwrestler View Post
bdhof, do you think Nebraska has an outside shot at challenging for a top 4 spot? Yes, they have 2 holes at 149 and 165, but Iowa seems to have 2 holes as well at 165 (as of now) and 197. They have potential finalists at 133, 157, 184 and ill throw in 197 because I really like Studebaker. Lambert looks like a high placer, and Jensen looks like a real AA contender. One other flaw is Colton McCrystal. He did pin Mike Longo at the Midlands (Returning NQ), beat Jared Prince, Bryce Meredith, and Javier Gasca. However he lost to Kanen Storr, Henry Pohlymer, and his own teammate Collin Purinton. So when I look at the lineup I see 6 AA's, and 3 other NQs. That seems to be on the same track as OSU, OkSt, Iowa, and PSU.

And yes, I am still upset abiut the Berger vs Kermerer result from the Midlands. The refs missed two TDs by Berger
Here's IM
125 5
133 3
141 13
149
157 3
165
174
184 3
197 7
285 15

Their strength is at 133, 157, and 184, but I don't see any titles and some of them could slip a notch, but not far. 125 could go anywhere from 4-R12. I think 197 could improve on his ranking, but 141 and 285 probably get left off the podium. So, that's 5 AAs. Running their points (without bonus points) from IM, they have 60 compared to OSU at 80 and the others at 90 or above. I think if OSU under performed and they had a great tourny, they could catch them. I don't think they could catch the others unless Iowa's Clark doesn't come back from his injury. And VT will be in the mix for a top 4 spot as well. I see them right on OSU's tail at this time.

I do, however, think they could go with any of the top programs in a dual meet. They probably lose to all without an upset but win 4 or 5 matches.

Last edited by bdhof; 01-06-17 at 05:21 PM.
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