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  #1  
Old 10-09-17, 03:28 PM
Sevens Sevens is offline
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Division IV Region 16

Ran through the numbers and this is what I have Region 16 playoffs. A wildcard here is Taft. Taft has two wins against two out of state opponents who play opponents I know little (Scott, Ky.) to nothing (Mergenthaler, Md.) about. For every Scott win, Taft gets 0.6061 total points. For every Mergenthaler win, Taft gets 0.6566 total points. So Taft's total points could fluctuate plus or minus 3.7878 total points. I calculated with both Scott and Mergenthaler winning out, so there is no room to move up, but if Scott and/or Mergenthaler lose games they could drop below Indian Hill and possibly even Waverly, but no lower than 8th.

1. Valley View (10-0) 30.9000
2. Clinton-Massie (10-0) 30.3000
3. Wyoming (10-0) 26.4182
4. London (10-0) 24.1000
5. Jon Alder (8-2) 23.8000
6. Taft (7-3) 21.5263
7. Indian Hill (8-2) 20.3157
8. Waverly (7-3) 18.2500
9. Fenwick (6-4) 15.8778
10. Aiken (8-2) 14.1041
11. Shawnee (5-5) 14.1000

Fenwick's in a tough spot. I just don't see how they can get to Waverly. I've got CHCA winning out, so there are no additional points there. Everything else is basically a wash. Basically they need Badin and McNick to BOTH beat Alter AND CJ. Waverly could lose some points. I've got Fairland beating both Portsmouth and Chesapeake. They lose 0.8000 if Fairland loses both. Still Fenwick would have to pick up almost 2.0 points. They would get there with two Fairland losses and Badin and McNick combine to go 3-1 against Alter and CJ. That just seems really unlikely.

Aiken's got a better chance. But still highly unlikely. They need Shroder to win out. Shroder's got 7-0 Belmont and 7-0 Portsmouth West.

Shawnee could be a factor, but beating either Bellefontaine or Jon Alder seems unlikely.

It appears the top 8 teams are pretty set, just some questions about seeding.
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  #2  
Old 10-13-17, 12:43 PM
tonka tonka is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sevens View Post
Ran through the numbers and this is what I have Region 16 playoffs. A wildcard here is Taft. Taft has two wins against two out of state opponents who play opponents I know little (Scott, Ky.) to nothing (Mergenthaler, Md.) about. For every Scott win, Taft gets 0.6061 total points. For every Mergenthaler win, Taft gets 0.6566 total points. So Taft's total points could fluctuate plus or minus 3.7878 total points. I calculated with both Scott and Mergenthaler winning out, so there is no room to move up, but if Scott and/or Mergenthaler lose games they could drop below Indian Hill and possibly even Waverly, but no lower than 8th.

1. Valley View (10-0) 30.9000
2. Clinton-Massie (10-0) 30.3000
3. Wyoming (10-0) 26.4182
4. London (10-0) 24.1000
5. Jon Alder (8-2) 23.8000
6. Taft (7-3) 21.5263
7. Indian Hill (8-2) 20.3157
8. Waverly (7-3) 18.2500
9. Fenwick (6-4) 15.8778
10. Aiken (8-2) 14.1041
11. Shawnee (5-5) 14.1000

Fenwick's in a tough spot. I just don't see how they can get to Waverly. I've got CHCA winning out, so there are no additional points there. Everything else is basically a wash. Basically they need Badin and McNick to BOTH beat Alter AND CJ. Waverly could lose some points. I've got Fairland beating both Portsmouth and Chesapeake. They lose 0.8000 if Fairland loses both. Still Fenwick would have to pick up almost 2.0 points. They would get there with two Fairland losses and Badin and McNick combine to go 3-1 against Alter and CJ. That just seems really unlikely.

Aiken's got a better chance. But still highly unlikely. They need Shroder to win out. Shroder's got 7-0 Belmont and 7-0 Portsmouth West.

Shawnee could be a factor, but beating either Bellefontaine or Jon Alder seems unlikely.

It appears the top 8 teams are pretty set, just some questions about seeding.
This is exactly the way I see it too. Fenwick can't get there. Which is probably fair because they had no business beating CHCA in week 1.

The interesting matchup is week 10 with Wyoming and IH. That could shake up the seeding but I ultimately predict it will breakdown just the way you have it. I think Massie is probably the team to beat in this region.
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Old 10-13-17, 01:16 PM
OHFball10 OHFball10 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sevens View Post
Shawnee could be a factor, but beating either Bellefontaine or Jon Alder seems unlikely.
Beating Bellefontaine seems unlikely for Shawnee, but I don't see why they can't compete with Alder. Just looking at the two common opponents they have reveals this:

Indian Lake:
Alder won 35-34 in OT
Shawnee won 41-7

Kenton Ridge:
Alder won 28-21
Shawnee won 21-3

Looking at those scores would lead you to believe that Alder/Shawnee will be a close game.
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Old 10-13-17, 02:27 PM
AHS2007 AHS2007 is offline
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I believe Fenwick would make noise in this region if they got in but Massie vs VV is the finals


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  #5  
Old 10-13-17, 02:57 PM
UnTouchableVoL33 UnTouchableVoL33 is offline
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I like Wyoming in this region.
Wyoming vs Clinton Massie regional championship
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  #6  
Old 10-13-17, 03:34 PM
IRLMN1999 IRLMN1999 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by UnTouchableVoL33 View Post
I like Wyoming in this region.
Wyoming vs Clinton Massie regional championship
VV, Massie, and Wyoming will most likely win out meaning
1. VV
2. CM
3. Wyoming

So Massie-Wyoming regional final wouldn’t be possible
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