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  #1  
Old 09-17-18, 01:21 PM
Over The Hills Over The Hills is offline
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D5 Region 17

Week 5 is not to early to start discussion on how the region is shaping up!

Who is who and what is what?....let's hear it.

..........

1 4-0 818 Leavittsburg LaBrae 6.8250 17.5 24.5 100
2 3-1 936 Akron Manchester 6.3750 13.5 30.0 100
3 4-0 642 Gates Mills Gilmour Academy 6.2677 18.0 17.5 99
4 4-0 170 Beachwood Beachwood 6.2250 20.5 11.0 100
5 4-0 1706 Wickliffe Wickliffe 6.0606 20.0 10.5 99
6 3-1 1210 Orrville Orrville 5.6000 16.0 16.0 100
7 3-1 1396 Magnolia Sandy Valley 5.1000 14.0 16.0 100
8 3-1 630 Garrettsville Garfield 4.4750 12.5 13.5 100
9 3-1 662 Orwell Grand Valley 4.3250 13.5 9.5 100
10 2-2 436 Columbiana Crestview 4.0250 8.5 19.0 100
11 2-2 912 Cleveland Heights Lutheran East 3.9500 10.0 14.5 100
12 2-2 1460 Canfield South Range 3.9000 10.0 14.0 100
13 3-1 440 Mantua Crestwood 3.8321 12.5 7.0 99
14 2-2 1560 Massillon Tuslaw 3.2000 8.0 12.0 100
15 2-2 560 Navarre Fairless 3.1500 8.0 11.5 100
16 2-2 340 Canton Canton Central Catholic 3.0750 8.5 9.5 100
17 2-2 366 Doylestown Chippewa 2.9750 8.5 8.5 100
18 2-2 1548 Wooster Triway 2.4750 8.5 3.5 100
19 2-2 226 Sullivan Black River 2.2500 9.0 0.0 100
20 1-3 1170 West Salem Northwestern 2.0250 4.5 9.0 100
21 1-3 1620 Warrensville Heights Warrensville Heights 1.8250 5.5 4.5 100
22 1-3 202 Burton Berkshire 1.3750 5.5 0.0 100
23 1-3 504 East Palestine East Palestine 1.0000 4.0 0.0 100
24t 0-4 354 Warren Champion 0.0000 0.0 0.0 100
24t 0-4 702 Gates Mills Hawken 0.0000 0.0 0.0 100
24t 0-4 1364 Cleveland Villa Angela-St Joseph 0.0000 0.0 0.0 100
24t 0-4 1640 Apple Creek Waynedale 0.0000 0.0 0.0 100
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  #2  
Old 09-17-18, 01:24 PM
Over The Hills Over The Hills is offline
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Currently 19 teams are 2-2 record or better.

Only 8 teams with losing record in the region.
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  #3  
Old 09-17-18, 02:04 PM
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I'm going out on a very low limb and say it should take more points to make the top 8 this year compared to last year. Not sure the #8 seed in the region ever had fewer points than last year.

It's too early for me to think about dusting off the abacus and throwing any calculations out there, but I think the 4 teams that are currently 0-4 are out of the hunt. I'm not seeing much from their past game scores to make me believe they can turn it around and get enough wins and points to qualify. That list will likely grow after this weekend.

Rumor has it Youngstown East could get reclassified into this region when the official computer polls are released tomorrow. With Chaney as an OHSAA member offering athletics again, East's enrollment numbers might be adjusted to reflect the fact that they are no longer serving all HS students in the Youngstown City School District. Stay tuned...
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  #4  
Old 09-17-18, 07:15 PM
Raider#23 Raider#23 is offline
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The last I heard on a local (Youngstown) radio station was that East is bigger than Chaney, and Chaney would be on the D5 - D4 border. I think East is going to find itself as a smaller D4 and Chaney as a large D5 or very small D4.

As far as the top 8 in the region. It sure looks like whoever can put together a solid run in the second half of the season will get the nod. A number of 2-2 teams with still a good chance to push their way in. A lot of computer points out there to be had.
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  #5  
Old 09-17-18, 07:57 PM
Buckeye Elite Buckeye Elite is offline
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I would not be happy if East snuck into the playoffs in D5, the team speed they have is ridiculous, but it’s not the kids fault if they get put into D5, it’s supposed to be what’s best for the kids, and even so they are very beatable by top teams, I would have had a bigger problem having to play those loaded Ursuline teams when they were D5
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  #6  
Old 09-17-18, 08:02 PM
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Canton Central Catholic walks through this region if they get in.
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  #7  
Old 09-17-18, 08:03 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Raider#23 View Post
The last I heard on a local (Youngstown) radio station was that East is bigger than Chaney, and Chaney would be on the D5 - D4 border. I think East is going to find itself as a smaller D4 and Chaney as a large D5 or very small D4.

As far as the top 8 in the region. It sure looks like whoever can put together a solid run in the second half of the season will get the nod. A number of 2-2 teams with still a good chance to push their way in. A lot of computer points out there to be had.
It depends which numbers the OHSAA uses. If it's treated the same as when a new school opens in a district, East will be assigned based on their grade 10-12 enrollment which I imagine is a much lower number then their grade 9-11 enrollment.

Yes, lots of football still to be played, and East still has many tough games still to be played.
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  #8  
Old 09-17-18, 08:14 PM
FirestoneFan FirestoneFan is online now
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CCC
Manchester
LaBrae
Gilmour
S Range
Sandy Valley
Orrville
Wickliffe
Beachwood
Tuslaw
also Tuslaw, Garrettsville, Northwestern
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  #9  
Old 09-17-18, 08:15 PM
Spread All Day Spread All Day is offline
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Guy on the news mark porter said east is a state title type team in D5...........


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  #10  
Old 09-17-18, 08:30 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Spread All Day View Post
Guy on the news mark porter said east is a state title type team in D5...........


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If that's accurate, they should be able to win 2 of their last 4 games because that might be what it takes for them to make the playoffs.

It might be a miracle if Ursuline avoids going 0-10.
I see Lakeside winning 3 games at best.
Niles might get 4 wins.
Howland might win 2 (which means Niles is winning 3).

If East doesn't beat Fitch, I think they have to win at least 2 of their last 4 games, maybe 3 out of 4.
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  #11  
Old 09-17-18, 08:40 PM
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If East goes to this region I would probably put them between Sandy Valley and Orrville right now. Their schedule will kill any playoff chances in any division IMO.
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  #12  
Old 09-19-18, 01:46 PM
Stark Born & Bred Stark Born & Bred is offline
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Is this decision final yet?
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  #13  
Old 09-19-18, 01:49 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Stark Born & Bred View Post
Is this decision final yet?
They're still working on it.

Division II
Region 5
- 1. Akron Archbishop Hoban (4-0) 9.2, 2. Maple Hts. (4-0) 8.25, 3. Boardman (3-1) 7.45, 4. Garfield Hts. (4-0) 6.775, 5. Macedonia Nordonia (3-1) 6.1, 6. Warren G. Harding (2-2) 5.15, 7. Painesville Riverside (3-1) 4.75, 8. Youngstown East* (3-1) 4.625, 9. Akron Ellet (3-1) 4.6, 10. Kent Roosevelt (2-2) 4.475, 11. Twinsburg (2-2) 4.2, tie-12. Mayfield (2-2) 4.15, tie-12. Willoughby South (2-2) 4.15
*Enrollment for Youngstown East has not been confirmed as of Sept. 18. Youngstown East will be listed in the appropriate division and region in the rankings posted following enrollment confirmation.


https://ohsaa.org/news-media/article...mputer-Ratings
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  #14  
Old 09-19-18, 03:29 PM
kingpin2010 kingpin2010 is offline
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I don’t think East is a state title contender in D5, however I do think they could win this region, their DL is pretty nasty. The reality is however there’s no way they are making it to the dance. At the very best they’re going 5-5. I’ll gladly eat my words if they do better but I can’t see them going 2-3 against the slate of Hubbard, Canfield, Fitch, Harding, and Poland.

CCC is defintely the top dog and if they get in should be a solid favorite. Labrae looks good so far but the competition hasn’t been great, we’ll see when they play Girard and Liberty.
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  #15  
Old 09-25-18, 07:10 AM
Over The Hills Over The Hills is offline
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Halfway through the season....

1 4-1 936 Akron Manchester 8.2500 18.0 46.5 100
2 5-0 642 Gates Mills Gilmour Academy 8.0859 22.5 35.5 99
3 5-0 1706 Wickliffe Wickliffe 7.1232 24.0 23.0 99
4 5-0 818 Leavittsburg LaBrae 6.8500 22.0 24.5 100
5 4-1 1210 Orrville Orrville 6.5000 20.5 24.0 100
6 4-1 630 Garrettsville Garfield 5.9500 16.0 27.5 100
7 4-1 170 Beachwood Beachwood 5.6500 20.5 15.5 100
8 3-2 436 Columbiana Crestview 5.6000 14.0 28.0 100
9t 4-1 1396 Magnolia Sandy Valley 5.4000 19.0 16.0 100
9t 4-1 662 Orwell Grand Valley 5.4000 17.0 20.0 100
11 3-2 1460 Canfield South Range 5.1000 14.0 23.0 100
12 4-1 440 Mantua Crestwood 4.8162 16.0 16.0 99
13 3-2 226 Sullivan Black River 4.4000 13.0 18.0 100
14 3-2 366 Doylestown Chippewa 4.0500 12.0 16.5 100
15 2-3 912 Cleveland Heights Lutheran East 3.4646 10.0 14.5 99
16 2-3 340 Canton Canton Central Catholic 3.3000 8.5 16.0 100
17 2-3 1560 Massillon Tuslaw 3.1500 8.0 15.5 100
18 2-3 1170 West Salem Northwestern 3.1000 9.0 13.0 100
19 2-3 1620 Warrensville Heights Warrensville Heights 3.0000 10.0 10.0 100
20 2-3 560 Navarre Fairless 2.7500 8.0 11.5 100
21 2-3 504 East Palestine East Palestine 2.2000 7.5 7.0 100
22 2-3 1548 Wooster Triway 2.0500 8.5 3.5 100
23 1-4 202 Burton Berkshire 1.1000 5.5 0.0 100
24t 0-5 354 Warren Champion 0.0000 0.0 0.0 100
24t 0-5 702 Gates Mills Hawken 0.0000 0.0 0.0 100
24t 0-5 1364 Cleveland Villa Angela-St Joseph 0.0000 0.0 0.0 100
24t 0-5 1640 Apple Creek Waynedale 0.0000 0.0 0.0 100
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  #16  
Old 09-25-18, 07:20 AM
Over The Hills Over The Hills is offline
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Some of you guys please tell us about your teams.

You are not giving away secrets.

The coaches all know about each other trust me.
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  #17  
Old 09-25-18, 07:48 AM
Buckeye Elite Buckeye Elite is offline
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Any word on Youngstown east? When with that decision be made
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  #18  
Old 09-25-18, 08:41 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Buckeye Elite View Post
Any word on Youngstown east? When with that decision be made
No word yet. Eitel still has them in DII, and he keeps the official rankings on the OHSAA's behalf. We'll see if anything changes in the OHSAA's official press release later today.

My gut says East will not end up in DV when it all gets settled, and I'm not sure East would make the R17 playoffs anyway. Ursuline might have 2 wins in them, but 0-10 is looking very possible for them, Lakeside is headed for 1-9, Niles can get 4 wins, and Howland is looking like 1-9 or 0-10 material, and that 1 win might come from a DVI equivalent.

East has plenty of points left on the schedule, but they would probably have to beat 2 out of Warren Harding, Poland Seminary, Hubbard, and Canfield.
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Old 09-25-18, 11:57 AM
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I spoke too soon. East has been reclassified into DIV R13.

I'll let things play out this weekend before I think about dusting off my solar-powered Casio 4-function calculator, but I would say the bottom 6 teams in the computer poll are out of the hunt. The first cut appears to have been made. The next 2 weeks will be the 2nd round of cuts. There are plenty of 2-3 teams fighting to stay in contention. The next 2 weeks are critical for them to create more sources for L2 points.

Big games to watch:
South Range vs. Canton CC, matchup of the last 2 R17 champions. Neither team would be eliminated with a loss, but both teams could use a win here with difficult schedules remaining.
Fairless at Manchester, possibly the Falcon's last chance to stay in playoff contention.
East Palestine at Southern, have a hard time seeing EP making the playoffs at 6-4 if this win isn't 1 of the 6.
Tuslaw at Loudonville, the Mustangs need to keep pace with the teams ahead of them and look to upset CVCA next week.
Lutheran East vs. Akron Ellet, biggest points game left for the Falcons.
Crestwood at Mogadore, Crestwood's first 4 wins have come against some poor competition.
Garrettsville Garfield at Valley Christian, Garfield is in game 2 of a stretch against opponents that are a combined 21-4.
Orrville at CVCA, the Red Riders begin their toughest 3-game stretch of the season.
LaBrae at Liberty, a step up in competition for the Vikings with valuable points on the line.
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  #20  
Old 09-25-18, 08:01 PM
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I think the CCC - South Range matchup is a playoff game for these two schools. The loser will have a hard time making it with the tough schedules ahead. But then again, if they can pull an upset or two then maybe their situation changes.

East Palestine's playoff chances are on life support. Flat-lining right now. A loss and they are done. There just aren't enough computer points with the remaining schedule in a very weak EOAC.
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  #21  
Old 09-25-18, 08:17 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Raider#23 View Post
I think the CCC - South Range matchup is a playoff game for these two schools. The loser will have a hard time making it with the tough schedules ahead. But then again, if they can pull an upset or two then maybe their situation changes.

East Palestine's playoff chances are on life support. Flat-lining right now. A loss and they are done. There just aren't enough computer points with the remaining schedule in a very weak EOAC.
I disagree only because the winner is still going to have a hard time making it, and the loser can still get in due to what's left on both teams' schedules. The path is definitely harder for the loser, but this win alone isn't going to get either team into the playoffs. Both still have Louisville. CCC still has Jackson, and they better not look past Carrollton because the Warriors' defense is playing really well right now. Team Canada isn't going to be worth much. South Range still has 2 unbeatens left on the schedule in St. Clairsville and Garfield Hts. West Geauga is the worst of all worlds, not a horrible team but also a team that's not winning but can still beat you.

East Palestine's chances are long at this moment, but I can't write them off just yet. Southern is the biggest points game left on their schedule. They can't let that one get away after having already dropped 3 games. Incidentally, the rest of the EOAC went 12-9 in their nonleague games, so they did their part to help EP.

Last edited by Mr. Slippery; 09-26-18 at 10:51 AM.
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  #22  
Old 09-26-18, 04:35 AM
bulldog1974 bulldog1974 is offline
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Exclamation

Quote:
Originally Posted by Raider#23 View Post
East Palestine's playoff chances are on life support. Flat-lining right now. A loss and they are done. There just aren't enough computer points with the remaining schedule in a very weak EOAC.
You are absolutely right, Raider. Zilch is our chances, Dogs had to beat Salem and Reserve to even have a chance with the low points this weak league has. Besides, the Dogs are not playing good ball at all.
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  #23  
Old 09-26-18, 05:19 AM
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Not a playoff probability list but how I see the teams as far as strenght right now.

Manchester
LaBrae
Orrville
Gilmour
S Range
CCC
Wickliffe
Sandy Valley
Crestview
Beachwood
also Garfield, Chippewa, Black River, Crestwood, E Palestine
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Old 09-26-18, 05:45 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FirestoneFan View Post
Not a playoff probability list but how I see the teams as far as strenght right now.

Manchester
LaBrae
Orrville
Gilmour
S Range
CCC
Wickliffe
Sandy Valley
Crestview
Beachwood
also Garfield, Chippewa, Black River, Crestwood, E Palestine
CCC might not get in to the playoffs but I wouldn’t rate them anywhere but atop this list.
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Old 09-26-18, 06:52 AM
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I guess we will see a little this week when they play S Range. I'm taking the Raiders in a close one.
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  #26  
Old 09-26-18, 07:18 AM
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Yup, I don't have any skin in the game. Ican be wrong and it won't bother me to say I am.
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  #27  
Old 10-01-18, 07:52 AM
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After week 6...

1 6-0 818 Leavittsburg LaBrae 10.1833 26.0 58.5 100
2 5-1 936 Akron Manchester 10.0500 22.5 63.0 100
3 6-0 642 Gates Mills Gilmour Academy 9.8759 26.5 53.5 98
4 5-1 1210 Orrville Orrville 9.5500 25.5 53.0 100
5 6-0 1706 Wickliffe Wickliffe 8.8258 27.5 42.0 99
6 3-2 436 Columbiana Crestview 6.8556 14.0 36.5 90
7 4-2 1460 Canfield South Range 6.8207 18.5 37.0 99
8 5-1 662 Orwell Grand Valley 6.6000 21.0 31.0 100
9 5-1 1396 Magnolia Sandy Valley 6.5000 22.5 27.5 100
10 4-2 630 Garrettsville Garfield 6.1167 16.0 34.5 100
11 4-2 170 Beachwood Beachwood 6.0667 20.5 26.5 100
12 3-3 1620 Warrensville Heights Warrensville Heights 5.4833 15.5 29.0 100
13 4-2 366 Doylestown Chippewa 5.4667 16.0 28.0 100
14 3-3 226 Sullivan Black River 4.7167 13.0 25.5 100
15 4-2 440 Mantua Crestwood 4.2828 16.0 16.0 99
16 2-4 912 Cleveland Heights Lutheran East 3.7075 10.0 20.0 98
17 2-4 1560 Massillon Tuslaw 3.2833 8.0 19.5 100
18 2-4 1170 West Salem Northwestern 3.1500 9.0 16.5 100
19 2-4 340 Canton Canton Central Catholic 3.0167 8.5 16.0 100
20 2-4 560 Navarre Fairless 2.8833 8.0 15.5 100
21 1-5 354 Warren Champion 2.1667 4.0 15.0 100
22 2-4 1548 Wooster Triway 2.1167 8.5 7.0 100
23 2-4 504 East Palestine East Palestine 1.9500 7.5 7.0 100
24 1-5 1640 Apple Creek Waynedale 0.9333 3.5 3.5 100
25t 1-5 202 Burton Berkshire 0.9167 5.5 0.0 100
25t 1-5 1364 Cleveland Villa Angela-St Joseph 0.9167 5.5 0.0 100
27 0-5 702 Gates Mills Hawken 0.0000 0.0 0.0 90
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Old 10-01-18, 07:59 AM
Over The Hills Over The Hills is offline
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Region is starting to take shape with serious contenders vs those that are not.

There are some fun potential matchups for first round games but way to early to get too excited.

Some great RB's in this region.
Hoping for some shootouts down the line.
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  #29  
Old 10-01-18, 05:04 PM
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I've played around with the calculator a little bit, but I'm not ready to make any projections with 4 more weeks left to play. That's a few more games than I want to have to predict in order to figure out L2 points. I will put some calculations up after this weekend of play.

Having said that, I agree with Drew Pasteur's projections for the region as far as which teams are likely to qualify. http://www.fantastic50.net/r17pct.html

The teams that helped themselves the most last weekend were: LaBrae, Orrville, and South Range,. The teams that hurt themselves the most last weekend were: Garfield, Beachwood, Black River, and Canton CC.
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  #30  
Old 10-01-18, 05:13 PM
kingpin2010 kingpin2010 is offline
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Given the schedule they’ve played/still got left and being reigning champs, I don’t think any one is going to want to host South Range in week 11.

This region is weird in that there is a bunch of teams that look really good, but haven’t played much competition yet so it’s hard to say how good
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