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  #481  
Old 11-01-18, 02:52 PM
Harrycrane Harrycrane is offline
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Week 11 cont.


# 6 Orange at # 3 Whitmer - LP Line Whitmer - 8


Close call here no doubt , Orange is playing well with much more confidence that they were early on and not having Zach Harrison was a huge part of that . Orange offense is the question mark to me. I think they do well enough on defense but Whitmer is very capable with their stud Jr. QB leading the charge so they will score some points . The question is can Orange score some of their own?



Whitmer is a good solid team but as we saw last year not better than OCC teams. They had a miracle win vs Olentangy in the last 3 minutes down two scores, I think Coffman who lost in similar fashion to Olentangy the week before was as good as Whitmer was and Liberty handled them pretty well also.


Orange doesn't have as many impact players as last years team but I think Whitmer lost some skill kids as well . I think this one stays within one score so I am grabbing the 8 points here .



Whitmer 24 Orange 20 -




I have R-4 left to go .


Randoms


I think Olentangy has a shot on offense of being somewhat successful against powerful Winton Woods, but their defense may have trouble stopping the great running back and game overall of Winton Woods .


An interesting snippet to Coffman coaches and fans is the fact that Olentangy gained over 500 yards vs Westy C last week . That says more about Tangy's energy and desire to win the league title and make the play-offs I believe than it does WC playing poorly on defense . Tangy has as good an offensive coaching staff as anyone and is a biotich to play against .


WC DE/LB Hunter is legit, he is a tremendous player and makes plays all over the field . The Purdue commit needs to be planned for no doubt. I think sometimes it's easier to run at a kid like that instead of trying to run away from him .

Wayne fans are hoping that some of their key guys get back to the line-up , I am not as familiar with their depth but that makes my 10 point Davidson win seem shakier if that's the case and they are difference makers and or they come back this week .


UA has excellent JV and Frosh teams so I look for them to be very good going forward . I realize that powerful Frosh teams don't always translate to Dominance all the way through their careers but Jerome and UA seem to have some really nice younger players .

I saw Jerome feeder Grizzell's 10 minute season montage on Coach Geciwich's twitter feed a couple weeks back. Very impressive , at times they looked like men out their playing little kids , just shoving them away or shooing them away when they tried to tackle them as if they were just a nuisance . QB looked poised and a talented arm, a couple fast skill kids who just outran folks . Frosh team was good and 7TH grade was good too, so Jerome ahs a possible bright future with a good coaching staff .



Scioto was snakebitten in their loss to Darby which cost them a play-off spot and gained Darby one . Pannell got hammered under the chin and was out for quite some time on the field . Kicker Crosa doinked a short 22 Yd. FG after nailing a 46 yarder earlier . Brutal loss for the Irish .
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  #482  
Old 11-02-18, 06:08 AM
Harrycrane Harrycrane is offline
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Week 11 cont.

D-1 R- 4

# 8 St X At # 1 Colerain- LP Line C- rain - 16

Bloated line although Colerain is capable of cruising here. X is always dangerous as we saw them win a title with a similar team record wise anyway. Two point win for Colerain in week 2 has some feeling this is a game between equals . It’s not. The line is tough and what makes it tough is that it is accurate . I think the game falls close to this number ( 14-17 pts) . Flip a coin three times and twice it came up as a 17 pt Colerain victory.

Colerain 34 St X 17
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  #483  
Old 11-02-18, 07:47 AM
LSpartans LSpartans is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Harrycrane View Post
Coffman is capable of beating R-Burg dude. The Burg luckily beat a Pick North team late that Coffman was more in control of for the 48, beat Gahanna pretty easily being up 38- 12 before giving up some late points { Blocked punt , turnover} who held R-Burg to 7 points . Coffman defense is better than Gahanna's by a nice margin .

NO huge gap at all really , Burg has more D-1 kids no doubt but you don't really know what you are talking about if you think Coffman suks and that opinion isn't because I an a fan at all. Missing three key guys against Davidson that would have made a difference and giving them short fields made the margin larger , so if it's the Davidson game you are basing your Coffman opinion , { Yardage even } not real smart . Look at the scope of the season for all teams, ups downs and so so periods.


I like R-Burg as well and they are the favorite in R-2 and deservedly so but not shocking if they lose in the next few weeks.
Coffman is capable of beating Reynoldsburg...I did not say that Coffman "suks" I said they are not good. I have seen some good Coffman teams...this is one of the worst in the past years. Saw them play twice Marysville in that surprise we have no lights on Friday you have to play us Saturday morning game. They should have lost to Marysville...the same Marysville that UA shelled with a JV QB....then I saw them play UA that out gained them and played better than them...if it wasnt for 2 plays, a very strong run by the QB transfer from Marysville and a completion from the UA QB to the Defensive lineman for a TD. Yes it was messy and the Coffman Coach knew that UA could not move the ball and sat on the lead like a good coach would do. Like I mentioned before I think that this Coffman team tends to drop to the level of their competition...hopefully for the OCC central the team that beat and controlled the whole Pickerington North game shows up in the playoffs. By the way I am rooting for them!
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  #484  
Old 11-02-18, 08:29 AM
Harrycrane Harrycrane is offline
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I think my point is there is a lot of parity this year. I think if you catch even Pick C on a subpar night this year they arenít all that . M-Ville game they had 400 yards offense and shut them down the second half until a long heave was completed in the last minute . UA had 30 more yards and the weather was atrocious . UA has good size up front on both sides and does a nice job limiting the run ( held Davidson to 10 offensive points ) and Coffman shut them out .

I think if they suk , just who is solid ? PC has been underwhelming at times as has R-Burg ( lost and scored 7 points vs Gahanna a team Coffman controlled throughout scoring 38 ) so if you take a few things here and there over 10 games you could make a case that most teams suck or are very good depending on the pieces of evidence you choose to look at .

Appreciate the support .
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  #485  
Old 11-02-18, 08:51 AM
Harrycrane Harrycrane is offline
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Week 11 cont.

# 5 Fairfield at # 4 Milford - LP Line FF - 9

Track meet? A lot of scoring us almost guaranteed . FF hasnít won a playoff game since 2000. It isnít because they havenít had some good teams but rather they have run into Cincy Catholics in round one . Milford coach used to coach at Fairfield , he was the head guy . He flat says we canít stop these guys. McClain is outstanding and will have a Big night . Laying 9 isnít scary when you know the team you are laying it with can score at any moment .

FF 42 Milford 27
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  #486  
Old 11-02-18, 02:05 PM
Harrycrane Harrycrane is offline
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Week 11 cont.


# 7 Lakota East at # 2 Mason -LP Line Mason - 6


Mason beat Fairfield, , very impressive, but FF was off of the Colerain war , unfortunate scheduling dynamics . I think Lakota can hang here ina game that can go either way.


Mason 27 LE 24



# 6 Moeller at # 3 Elder- LP line Elder - 1


Rematch where Moeller won the first one . that wasn't last week though . I think Big Moe pulls this one out again in an instant classic.



Moe 24 Elder 21



That's it for predictions this week , 32 games in all . A few I really like a few are mere coin flips , but the majority I have some reasons and handicapping fundamentals that steer the opinion.




Game times approaching.
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  #487  
Old 11-03-18, 04:29 AM
Harrycrane Harrycrane is offline
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A few guys still not playing, , not sure they go much further without a few guys I didn't see out there tonight to be honest . I see a kid one week playing lights out then he isn't t out there . More thana handful of sweatpants wearing kids and one or two I didn't see anywhere on the sidelines.


It definitely helped Hyuets turn the corner as he did about 36 times during the game , no edge set at all , IT WAS LIKE THERE WAS NO EDGE just pitch it and he gains 7 before anyone comes near and then drags people as if he was Earl Campbell for another 4 . Bend not break defense was good I suppose.


Coffman players should take a play from that kid's book , HE HAS HEART , played every play and I mean EVERY PLAY safety , RB , special teams he never came off the field . WC played harder tonight . The same team plays next week vs Whitmer? Not that they are a great team , but they lose and they can hang out next weekend with the rest of the Coffman faithful who were no where to be seen last night .


The smallest crowd of the year showed up for the occasion .It was incredible, the Central Crossing game drew more fans. the smallest crowd of the year for a play-off game? WOW
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  #488  
Old 11-03-18, 05:26 PM
Harrycrane Harrycrane is offline
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Ok , it's on to week 12 which is a nice thing no matter the dynamics and the fact is Coffman did play hard , I just thought that Westy C's energy level their effort, their schemes and execution at times was impressive.

It wasn't enough because Coffman wouldn't allow it to be and West C made a few too many mistakes. The crowd was very disappointing because overall the attendance throughout the year was pretty good . We all know that for a variety of reasons the attendance has been dwindling everywhere with some exceptions , so to drive into the Administration building parking lot and see what I saw ? Shocking to be frank which I usually am as most know.


Anyway , Rocks took care of business and won which is the most important thing at this time of year . They committed no turnovers , they didn't give up huge plays . They took care of the field position game well making them drive to score . WC punter was outstanding , reminded me of Davidson's punter who had a career night vs Coffman . Kid almost had a couple blocked and crushed every punt .


QB Brown is a warrior. The kid makes plays when you need them . Runs into the end zone , first down runs , that pass ton Hostetler that led to the game sealing TD was a great play . Rolling right avoiding pressure throws with a guy in his face he threw it perfectly to Hostetler in front of one guy and behind another for a big first down . This transfer crap that he isn't one of the guys is just that . He came THREE years ago , this isn't a One and Done transfer . He is their leader and is a true competitor who is tough and has made big necessary plays all year.


He isn't the gifted pure passer that some other kids who have gone through the program have been as coach pointed out in the post game show interview, BUT he is a gamer and a talented and willing runner . I think as he has shown that he has a few great throws left in him this year that as they have been so far difference making plays .


A couple guys on the edge in the front 7 didn't play last night. The edge was not set and Hyatt who was the best player on the field made them pay . That kid COMPETED , played every play . QB Davis was really good at times , he escaped pressure , he made some good throws and had command of the offense. I do think if Coffman was at full strength in the front seven he would have bene sacked more than the 4 or so times he was .


WC was 5-5 , but had 3 losses to play-off teams by a total of 7 points . They have a handful of talented and or tough kids. Healy was all over the place on offense and defense. I think one of the differences was Coffman 's depth as more Warhawks played two ways { Coffman had zero that did last night as usual } .


AJ Kirk was back on the field and was his productive self and I think he will be even better next week and his contributions are crucial. Ethan Simpson who came in to start due to injury is making a lot stops . Now because he plays in the secondary that isn't always a positive thing . As anyone who has played in the defensive secondary as I have knows your highest totals in tackles are often in games where the opponent gained more yards or you may be lost the game .

Best sign was after kind of stagnating and bringing back memories of last years excruciating loss to Tangy in round one which saw a 14-0 early lead dissolve into a 14-10 halftime lead { Big crossing route gain in the last seconds set up a field goal to end the half } was coming out in the second half and basically just running down WC's throat . Diallo now back for the third week has shown everyone what was missing . That bigger back who move a pile and allow Drenna to roam in other areas making the team more dangerous . Drenna n of course because he is such a good football palyer was excellent carrying the rock and the offensive burden while Moussa was out with a broken arm , BUT we did get to see Moussa pick up the slack without Mike last night for a period and eh and the O-line along with QB Brown just take charge on the ground when it was needed taking back control of the game .

Of course a part of that was Mike Drennan going out with a lower body malady early second quarter and not coming back until the clinching drive , never carrying the ball or catching another pass . I think if he is out there like he has been all year and playing like the MVP he has been all year the game is not in doubt earlier . I am guessing he will be just fine next week . This is the type of game that big time players LOVE.


Offense needs to work on the usual things this week . QB accuracy , receivers had a couple drops , but have to have more shake in their routes , double moves head turns right plant foot go left type routes to get that quick three yard separation . Timing needs to be a bit better.


Great having Diallo and Kirk back , hopefully a few more can come back this week because the competition gets stronger this week. Good night vs the Louie Line as I went 20- 12 . A good night for Central Ohio underdogs in D-1 and D-2 as well even in losing efforts. White hall winning was awesome for that community , Olentangy gave Winton Woods all it could handle in an epic track meet , Orange came within a few whiskers of upending favored and higher seeded Whitmer . Davidson took care of business vs. Wayne evening that play-off series at 2-2 now. Walnut Ridge impressed everyone with their skill and toughness vs Massillon as the were competitive as a huge underdog losing by 12 points . Darby lost by 20+ but played better than most thought they would .


On to week 12 , and the sweet 16
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  #489  
Old 11-07-18, 09:21 AM
Harrycrane Harrycrane is offline
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Week 12


Weather turns colder, hopefully the rain stops by early afternoon Friday because we can't go a full Friday without rain can we? The temps will be very cool on Friday night as is usual for this time of year as last year at the round two stage it was exactly like this .


Looking at the teams that advanced in D-1 and D-2 that I am following here in this space , like most years some teams had to play in rematches of games either the week before, or a few weeks before and earlier in the season . I don't prefer rematches early on in the play-offs , hard to beat a team twice especially in a short turnaround unless you are just vastly superior as we also saw in a couple cases.

In SIX of the NINE rematch games I round one the winner of the regular season match-up is turning in their gear this this week .


2 weeks ago Little Miami got shot out by Edgewood 20-0 , last week ? Little M wins 10-7 . The reward for getting revenge on Edgewood ? A date with Miyan Williams and Winton Woods, whose defense has to be really angry after that Olentangy ego bruise last week . OUCH !! UGLY !!!


About 7 weeks ago Kings handled Anderson comfortably 35-14 . Last week ? Kings once again scored 35 on Anderson but gave up 42 POINTS!! and is home this week !.


Springfield lost to Fairmont in week 10 , 14-7 , the very next week they again gave up 14 to Fairmont but in this match-up scored 19 to get the win .

Also in a back to back weeks rematch scenario St Ignatius a team some thought had a real arguable anyway shot to win a title beat St Ed's 21-7 in week 10 , a week later ? They lose a razor thin decision 21-19 and is home this week. You think they would want to flip those results ?


A month ago Moeller edged Elder 24-21. Last week Elder hammered Moeller in what was to me may be the most surprising score of the week in D-1 and D-2. Not surprised at al that Elder got the W, but FIVE TD's ?


2 weeks ago Avon Lake lost a close 34-31 decision to Olmstead Falls . But when it mattered more ? Avon stepped it up and scored a 44-28 win to advance to this weekend to face GULP ------- Toledo CC.


In two of the three games where the team swept the two game series, Mentor and Colerain two heavyweights and possible final game entries crushed their opponents in the rematch. The difference of course was Colerain only beat St X 14-12 in week 2 , last week they hammered X 35-9 as I thought and many others thought as well . Mentor a team that is seeking their first title after being in the hunt for a long time now with some very close calls handled Strongsville in week 4, 45-20 and cruised last week in the rematch 38-7 and is now clicking on all cylinders with their talented Soph. QB back and playing well.

Wadsworth the third seed in R-7 swept the Season series vs Wooster , but both games were tight . Week 2 Waddy won 37-31 week 10 they held on 42-38 . They play in a what to me is a very interesting match-up with last years little engine that could Dresden Tri- Valley who went all the way to the D-3 final before losing to Heavyweight Trotty Madison 27-19 in a game they had a real shot in . it shows you how important getting on a roll and gaining momentum is. In round 2 TV won in overtime vs Bellefontaine 36-30 before toppling two Catholics Hartley 13-9 and Akron SVSM 24-6 , before their tou9gh loss to Trotty.


Tri- Valley has that experience , they have those extra weeks of practice that benefits the kids back this year and they have CONFIDENCE which is of course so important at this time of year . They are like the toughest kid in school who is afraid of NO ONE even though he isn't the biggest strongest kid by any means. Wadsworth is very good I have been told as their undefeated ledger kind of suggests , but TV may be a live 10 point underdog?


This week there are NO REMATCHES In D-1 and D-2 . Coaches don't have the luxury of having that information to make adjustments and I really like that dynamic . More interesting to me .


We do have a rematch of a play-off game from 2017 with Pick Central the defending D-1 champ taking on Clayton Northmont who they beat last year in round 1 41-21 in poor conditions at the " Ditch" . This game will surely be closer as the Louie Line sits at PC - 1 Cal Preps also has PC as a one Pt. choice .


Two games offer nice contrasts of style and attitudes . Reynoldsburg the large athletic team with fast D-1 athletes in multiple areas on the field takes on the more staid business like Olentangy Liberty club that ahs a wealth of play-off experience the last two years . Liberty has some nice athletes, but not in that same realm as the Burg. Experience and very disciplined, vs less experience coming off a scrimmage last week that did nothing to prepare Burg really but with more explosive athletes who are capable of returning a kick an interception or getting behind the secondary on offense at any time ?


Davidson who doesn't pass and is as disciplined as any team in the state who gives up big plays as often as often as Dane Cook is legitimately funny vs. a very athletic team Springfield who like the Burg hasathletes in various places on the field , but often isn't as disciplined as they should be ? R-Burg has gotten better eliminating those crushing mistakes that have cost them games in the past . Can Springfield be more mistake free and disciplined on Friday? If so they have a really good shot at victory . Teams did paly in 2010 with Davidson scoring a 9-0 win . I see more points in this one .


Coffman and Whitmer are both on 10 consecutive years making the play-offs run in a game I of course will be talking about later . I will say this though now, Whitmer has a really nice following and will show up in Marion on Friday in the frigid conditions . Coffman needs to step up and get some buses rolling north. 50 minute drive ? Come on Coffman fans get your azzes up there.



In the higher Louie line spread games , I see a few really likely blowouts . Little Miami would be better served if their Cousin 'Big" Miami was playing Winton Woods on Friday . Garfield Heights ahs some dudes on their team but lets face it , Hoban is just ridiculous at this point .


Colerain is a train running downhill and Milford won their Super Bowl last week in an epic comeback win or collapse depending on your perspective over Fairfield who the head coach at Milford used to coach a while back . Fairfield has had some bad draws in a tough region to be sure but to have some of the talent they have had and to not have won a play-off game since 2000 ? No excuse for last weeks collapse .


Massillon should have too much for Whitehall, although I kind of like what Whitehall does scheme wise with some talented kids and they are well coached . Louie P has the Tigers a 21 Pt. favorite over the Rams .



Time for some handicapping . We sit at 20-12 for the play-offs vs the Louie Line after completing the regular season at 51-38-1 . Nearing the coveted 60 percent range combined .
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  #490  
Old 11-07-18, 09:38 AM
Harrycrane Harrycrane is offline
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As for the home attendance last Week at Coffman and other places were available for viewing on Spectrum . Again Coffman fans , family , friends and students , the Rocks have worked very hard since last winter preparing for this moment , a lot of sweat , a lot of aches, recovering from injury , bruises and a lot of effort and they deserve to be supported on Friday . I get the wanting to stay warm and dry at home and watching the game from there, but this is the play-offs and the season could end this week . Busses need to be rolling on Friday .
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  #491  
Old 11-08-18, 08:32 AM
Harrycrane Harrycrane is offline
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Week 12 Cont.


D-2 Region 8

# 5 Little Miami vs. # 1 Winton Woods - LP Line WW - 22

As I said previously , Little Miami probably needs his older brother 'Large " Miami to take it's place, or his Cousin 'big" would give them a better shot here. The most famous graduate of Little Miami which is a very solid academic school and it's players would win an ACT score battle here handily, is the biggest corporate Whistle blower in US History. Mark Whitacre was an executive at Archer Daniels Midland in Illinois and worked for 3 years plus with the FBI who was looking into illegal price fixing. Whitacre was later disgraced and lost his FBI immunity when he was still profiting from the illegal stuff and did an 8 year plus stretch in the federal Pen .


The most famous Little Miami grad Ohio State grad I noticed has no buildings with his name on it down there . Most famous Winton Woods alum? I think that is easy . It is Miyan Williams who has NFL RB written all over him. He actually could pass for a 4 year NFL vet RIGHT NOW , full beard that would put any attempt by me to shame , and at more man like 5-10 215 pounds he looks like a HS football imposter . Kind of like an actor who is really 28 years old finally going into his Senior year as the starting RB[ Tim Riggins } . Drew Pasteur has Little Miami as the 12th best team in the region out of 27 teams . Not really a play-off team in other words by his numbers

WW 50 LM 16 - Easy cover here as Miyan carries the ball 11 times for 246 yards and 4 Td's . I hear that next year teams may forfeit instead of having to try to tackle the future NFL all pro.





# 7 Anderson vs. # 3 Troy - LP Line Troy - 5

Troy the home of former Ohio Mr. Football Ryan Brewer { South Carolina recruit 1998 } and former Miami O and Northwestern coach Randy Walker . Troy has some solid history , Anderson has had some good teams , some down years and now is pretty good again . Anderson would win the ACT battle as well , a Blue Ribbon school . But that doesn't count here and Anderson it seems has been up and down this year. Not much of a consistent pattern of performance . Troy is probably a higher favorite in Vegas than the LP Line of 5 . There I am guessing the Pro's have this one at about 9 . That's good enough for me .


Troy 34 Anderson 20 -
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Old 11-08-18, 09:17 AM
Harrycrane Harrycrane is offline
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Week 12 cont.


D-2 Region 7



# 1 Massillon vs. # 5 Whitehall - Yearling - LP Line Mass - 21


What can you say about Massillon's history ? Too many famous alums to mention really. Some of the more interesting to me might not be what immediately comes to mind to many . Dennis Franklin was the first black QB to ever start for Michigan in the early 70's. Harry Stuhldreher was one of the 'Four Horseman " made famous by the great sportswriter Grantland Rice . Harry was the QB. Justin Zwick played a bit for Ohio State and was the victim of may be the most blatant dropped pass for a TD that cost the Buckeyes a game that I witnessed in person { Ryan Hamby was the buttered fingered receiver} . Zwick was playing because Troy Smith was suspended. Texas Heisman winner Vince Young threw a TD pass to Limas Sweed { I bet you forgot that name} to win it for the Longhorns late. Paul Brown was a minor figure in football you may have heard of and you might have also heard of a guy named Speilman who was a Wheaties box model ? Rumor had it but it may be a myth out of Greek mythology that he once made 25 tackles in a game vs Michigan? May be it's more like Reno Hightower{ Best of Times} throwing 4 TD'S vs Porterville and it became 7 years later ?


Whitehall is new to this dance and may be happy to be here ? I can't speak for them . Keiwan Ratliff is an alum a former Florida CB and 7 year NFL guy. Domenik Hixon is a two time SB Winner with the Giants beating my patriots twice . Monica Day a former Miss teen Ohio { 2000} and a morning anchor for NBS affiliate in Columbus is a Whitehall grad herself .


Whitehall is a good story and I hope they do well here, . I thin Massillon simply has too much here though with more depth and a few more playmakers. I think the damn break somewhere in the third quarter.


MW 38 WH 13



# 3 Wadsworth vs. # 7 Tri- Valley - LP Line Waddy - 10


I have this one at Waddy - 17 , all due respect to TV who was a Cinderella team last year going all the way to the final losing a tough close game to Trotwood. TV dispatched Barberton who wins games in a league they dominate . Doesn't always prepare them for games like this though. TV grinded out a 10-0 win vs Barberton but this team is at a different level and I see them may be getting the same 10 points this week but giving up 21+ .


Cal Preps and at sports books in the Cayman Islands this line is more like 18-21 points . Weather should be not raining but cold and may be a flurry or two? NO worries, I usually don't like playing too many favorites but the Louie Line is a bit light it seems in this weeks games. Tri -Valley is made up of about 46 individual small villages each with their own Stoplight . This is a model of school consolidation as there were once 13 one room school houses that now make up Tri- V- High . Famous Waddy alums? How about Andy Sonnanstine a pitcher with the TB Rays? He pitched for " Can't read " " Cant write" Can't err Kent State. Rolling admissions up there and great cafeteria food I am told . Scott Fletcher a 1976 grad was such a journeyman Jack of all infielder trades his picture actually appears in the dictionary under that term . Played for 8 teams from the early 80's to the mid 90's .


Waddy 33 TV- Consolidated - 14 -

Last edited by Harrycrane; 11-08-18 at 10:09 AM.
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  #493  
Old 11-08-18, 11:02 AM
Harrycrane Harrycrane is offline
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Week 12 cont.

Just lost region 6 write -up , not doing it again except for predictions . Inadvertently deleted it . oops . I will say that Playboy Playmate Carmela DeCesare is an Avon Lake grad and married to former NFL QB Jeff Garcia and met him when he was playing for the Browns . 4 kids later I believe they are still together . 4 very good to great academic school in this region and the publics have little diversity and aren't as athletic as this powerhouse TCC .



So without further adieu , I will pick the winners in the Toledo Central Catholic region invitational .



# 1 TCC - 16 vs. # 4 Avon Lake - LP Line TCC - 16

TCC 41 AL 20



# 3 Avon vs. # 2 Anthony Wayne - LP Line Avon - 4


Will take an underdog finally Avon 20 AW 18
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  #494  
Old 11-08-18, 12:37 PM
Harrycrane Harrycrane is offline
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Week 12 cont.



Hoban Invitational



# 1 Hoban vs. # 5 Garfield Heights- LP Line Hoban - 21


GH has talent as I have said, a few really talented kids. Hoban has a truckload of guys. They are a well oiled machine of a program, they work hard , are well coached of course and a lot of kids in that general area want to go there . GH played everyone on their schedule and handled them easily including last weeks play-off game.


What the schedule hasn't done is prepare them for what's coming for them this week though . In this scenario I think a team is probably better off losing a couple and playing a reasonable facsimile of this All Star travel team . Close for a while? May be. Even if it is within 7-10 after three I like my chances to cover this sucker. Cal Preps ahs it a 28 point margin . ?


Hoban 38 GH 14 -



# 2 Maple Heights vs. # 6 Painsville Riverside - LP Line MH - 7


These two teams are happy that Hoban invited them . They are kind of like Sheep being led to slaughter of course, but Hoban's kids do offer their autographs and the teams upon leaving get Hoban Towels and water bottles on their way out. Hoban coach also promises to compliment the fallen teams no matter what . He promises to say things like , " They competed their butts off". " They had us a little scared those first few plays " " That # { Insert a number } was as tough a kid as we have faced " and " That team will be heard from again ". { Yes they will . The next year when Hoban beats the again by 5 scores}



Maple Heights is talented as well , some nice teams over the years. Painsville R-Side ? Wouldn't Pleasureville be a better moniker? I won'[t pretend to know what may happen here , but glancing at the scores and schedules, ? I see Maple winning and may be the difference is larger than this ?



MH 31 PR - 14
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Old 11-08-18, 02:16 PM
Harrycrane Harrycrane is offline
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Week 12 cont.



D-1 R-2


# 2 Coffman vs # 3 Whitmer - LP Line DC - 4


Rocks and Panthers have made the play-offs 10 straight years . Proud programs that are solid every year. Rocks a slight favorite but it is a game that to me is one that is one of those, who plays better on that night wins type of match-up. As good as Whitmer has been as a program over the years I don't know a lot about them as I do some other out of region programs.


I have known they have a great following and tradition . A real community that sticks together and follows the program. Real pride . Kids grow up wanting to play for the Panthers.


Columbus suburban schools with all their split communities and multiple High schools within the same district don't have the history of a school like Whitmer . Coffman is the original school that was just called Dublin . There is pride and a community but it is a large district and a community that is close but in a different way as there are three different distinct high schools .


Coffman has a rich sports history and is good in multiple sports both girls and boys. I don't know to much about Whitmers athletic program overall. I know their football programs has great tradition and they draw on it. Coffman kids do as well , they work hard and want to live up to what others have done before them and are reminded of it . Both program have high expectations .



Interesting match-up that has never happened before . Always great to play someone new , Coffman hasn't played West Central in a while and hadn't at all since they got pretty good , but ahs scrimmaged them the last 2 years so there was some familiarity before last weeks paly-off game.



Whitmer had a tougher time vs Orange than Coffman did with WC. WC was better than their record and did test Coffman I believe and prepared them for this match-up with a talented QB { Not as polished as Keller or as highly touted but athletic probably a bit ore than Keller and a good arm, { Not as accurate as Keller} and a horse in Ricky Hyatt who prepared the Rocks defense for the good backs the Panthers have.


I have seen a nice amount of Whitmer VIDEO to have a good idea what they look like and what they like to do which is similar to many teams who run variations of the spread. Coffman and Whitmer look similar themselves. Coffman does kind of what Orange does only a bit better . Whitmer is similar to what Westerville C does and how they want to move the ball . Only with a better QB and a larger O-line .



I think the difference here will be a few things combined that will add up to a wining or losing effort. Both offensive lines are solid , Whitmer's is bigger , Coffman's moves a little better. How the defenses deal with the offensive lines and can they get pressure on the QB's or take away or limit the run better?


Both have good receivers who run good routes and can catch the rock . Keller slings it better , Brown runs it better. I thin the Rocks strength is with Diallo back is a three running back stable with Drennan the faster shifty guy with good acceleration and the 205 pound Diallo and 225 pound Brown the bigger move the pile guys with good feet as well .


Whitmer has two 200 pond backs and the QB is mobile as well presenting problems . A lot if similarities and not much to separate the teams. Whitmer two losses were to great teams, they won't be intimidated certainly at all as they are bigger than Coffman I think but Toledo Central Catholic and Detroit CC ARE DIFFERENT, REALLY BIG AND FAST .


Rocks need to do what they have been doing the last month and that is making the opponent earn everything they get , don't lose the field position battle , paly disciplined defense , tackle well and establish some things up front on offense . Grind on offense , and on defense stay in your lane , do your job and this week it is especially important to take away some time and space for Keller to operate . Get off the line of scrimmage quickly to try to negate Whitmers size and get some pressure on Keller when he goes back to pass.


Whitmer it looks like will be focusing on trying to pound the ball if they can and then have their stud QB throw it with more time after the run game slows down the rush?



Special teams ahs bene good for Coffman as the punts have been really solid over the year overall with many kills inside the 15 and Mitchell is a threat from 45 in terms of distance . Rocks need to be especially mindful of kick coverage as the Panthers have some dangerous guys back there .


On film there are things I am sure both teams see that they are worried about and or can be successful against . It is who makes the quick adjustments , half tie adjustments aren't Quick enough the best teams constantly make that adjustment on the fly before they get hurt.

Both coaching staffs are good. Going to be cold and I am looking forward to this one as it looks like a competitive interesting match-up .




Coffman 24 Whitmer -17 - I think Rocks make a enough plays and continue their later season , make the opponent earn their points by finishing long drives. The one game they lost the field position battle badly was their loss to Davidson . Rocks need to play with their late season discipline and soundness , and have their playmakers make a few key plays and at least be close in the Turnover and field position battle and I believe they win . GO ROCKS
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Old 11-08-18, 06:17 PM
Harrycrane Harrycrane is offline
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Week 12 cont.


D-1 R-2

#1 R-Burg vs. # 4 Olentangy Liberty - LP Line Burg - 12



Contrast of cultures and style. Burg has their best team in a long time . Liberty was better last year and the year before. Similar style but not as many difference makers. Good line , solid QB and a team that has payed a lot of football the last two years with a wealth of experience. Burg has done a great job of taking care of the smaller details that have cost them in the past. Won close games vs North and Central , and the Lancaster game was very close until mid 4th quarter and they started returning Interceptions for Td's.


Liberty will make them earn what they get on offense if they play good field position and take care of the ball which is their strength . Laid an egg vs Orange but other than that played to their potential . had injury/sickness bug but may be healthier now than some teams who were healthy early and now are banged up .


A model game for the Patriots may be the Gahanna game where Burg suffered their only loss 10-7. Low scoring, no big plays , conservative offense and run some clock shortening the game to keep the ball away from the Burg athletes . That also means not throwing picks that can be returned for Six which Burg has patented this year.


Okuely is a very smart and talented athlete, look for him to make a few plays to keep Liberty in the game, BUT Burg is so big and physical up front they should stop the run possibly making the Pats one dimensional which is where the problem comes in when playing Burg.

Cal preps has this one at Burg - 17? A little heavy? Well if the Liberty that shows up for the Orange game appears ? Rout. But if the team that usually shows up at play-off time like last week vs Gahanna ? This one should be closer .


Burg 20 Liberty 10 - Grinder , but Burg has too much speed and size here over 48 , Liberty will have a nice plan that will keep them in it, but in the end they have to make plays and they won't make enough of them . Pats cover but lose
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Old 11-08-18, 06:47 PM
KramericaIndustries KramericaIndustries is offline
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Harry, you got off easy. All the Liberty and Tangy games against these clowns we had to drive all the way up to Tiffin. You guys are getting like 30 miles off the trip!

Whitmer is one of the dirtiest teams I've seen play in the last 5 years. Their O-Line holds on at least 50% of the plays. If you get an officiating crew that "let's em play", it is an extremely frustrating game to watch.

That said, if Coffman takes care of business they should have no trouble at all beating this team by multiple TDs. problem is, as you well know, this can be a jeckyl/hyde program and sometimes they come out sleepwalking and under acheiving. Not underachieving to the Orange level, but not playing up to their full potential.

When the smoke clears, expect we will get the game we have all been waiting for, Coffman/burg for a regional title.
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Old 11-08-18, 07:16 PM
Harrycrane Harrycrane is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KramericaIndustries View Post
Harry, you got off easy. All the Liberty and Tangy games against these clowns we had to drive all the way up to Tiffin. You guys are getting like 30 miles off the trip!

Whitmer is one of the dirtiest teams I've seen play in the last 5 years. Their O-Line holds on at least 50% of the plays. If you get an officiating crew that "let's em play", it is an extremely frustrating game to watch.

That said, if Coffman takes care of business they should have no trouble at all beating this team by multiple TDs. problem is, as you well know, this can be a jeckyl/hyde program and sometimes they come out sleepwalking and under acheiving. Not underachieving to the Orange level, but not playing up to their full potential.

When the smoke clears, expect we will get the game we have all been waiting for, Coffman/burg for a regional title.
Yes Kramer I was expecting Tiffin , was pumped up to see Marion . I respect your opinions Kramer you know what's up . I saw the tape the last couple days and they do hold a lot . Is that providing bulletin board material ? it shouldn't but it's true. It is one of the reasons I think Coffman needs to play good Field position and make them work to score. The NFL Patriots don't have the best defensive personnel but their coaches know if you make teams drive a ways they are bound to make some mistakes including possible holding calls .

Coffman has some quick kids up front and they have gotten some key holding calls that stalled drives that were 40 yards long . Bend don't break and give up field goal attempts ? Coffman O-Line has been flagged for holding very little this year , it's a good fundamental group .


I agree Coffman has come up short I a few games in the play-offs they should have won , like last year vs Olentangy where they played not to lose , blew two chances to break the game open and lost in the last seconds .

I think they will play well tomorrow and force Whitmer to beat them . If they do that I think they are in decent shape . Liberty took them apart last year , I think it was OL 430 to Whitmer 180 in yardage ? Liberty was good last year but not that good . Rocks need to be focused and make plays , don't lose the field position battle and turnover margin and they should be OK.
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Old 11-09-18, 10:39 AM
Harrycrane Harrycrane is offline
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Week 12 cont.


When you look at these match-ups at this stage between teams that haven't played each other you look for parallels to try to figure out what may happen and why. Styles make fights they say ion boxing , but in football this is also true. Team A and Team B re going to play each other in the play-offs . When you look at the teams it is apparent that when the teams play others one has done better . But in the individual match-up the team that hasn't been as good overall against 'OTHERS" but matches up well with that team and has the advantage .

Styles make fights. The other recurring theme when looking at these games is 'How prepared is a team to face what is coming at them tonight or tomorrow ? How have they matched up when going against similar foes? Have they faced similar foes? Many teams are simply not as prepared to do battle at a higher level because they haven't had to do it much if at al , whereas other teams have may be lost a game or two more but has tested itself and is prepared to go to a higher level.


It's why you have tough sparring partners who mirror the upcoming opponent as much as possible in boxing training camps. Tune-up fights as well. I look for how teams have done against like teams , so many teams run variations of the spread . You have ton look closely to see the differences . Some team run it better and more often , some teams take more shots down field but don'[t get first downs as often and lose the field position battle more.


Looking at the handful of games that are left to predict, some interesting dynamics are becoming apparent . The aforementioned dynamics will play a part in how I think the games will turn out .


In a game I already predicted Coffman -Whitmer I see that Whitmer challenges themselves playing Toledo and Detroit Central Catholics who are top shelf teams obviously . Those games were a while ago . There is a common foe that I basically didn't pay any attention to for a couple reasons. Coffman had a lot of new starters playing in week 1 vs Perrysburg . P-Burg had most if not almost all of their guys back with revenge after getting beat 45-0 the year before. Three year starting QB Sims was good in this game and P-Burg competed well eventually losing 42-21 because Coffman had a few more good players and more talent .


Whitmer beat P-Burg more handily than that but that was also a long time ago AND P-Burg wasn't the same team as their three starter Sims got hurt the week after the Coffman game and was out for the year, so a different team and game .


So it came down to for me that Orange operates a lot like Coffman scheme wise and did some good things that Coffman also does. Coffman is better than Orange though , more guys to go to and stronger up front .


Whitmer has played three Olentangy teams in the play-offs the last two years . They won two on their last drive and were behind late in each game. Against Olentangy they scored basically with no time left . Against Orange in a game that was dead even they scored with a few minutes left and Orange fumbled at mid field to basically end the game . Liberty won easily in dominant fashion last year running the ball at will. 34-7 was the final and the yardage was very lopsided.


Coffman is better than Orange and Orange played them snap for snap EVEN . I have to think if Coffman plays their game they win in a close one ?

Coffman I believe is prepared for playing this game in two ways . Last week WC has some similar traits to Whitmer . Scheme on offense with a good QB{ Whitmer's is better } a real nice running back { I believe WC'S is a bit better} and some good receivers{ Whitmer's # 1 may be better , but WC has a couple others better than Whitmers 2 and 3 guys} . Whitmer is bigger up front , not sure that means much better though .


Whitmer has the edge on defense, which to me makes this game closer than the WC game ? We will see of course . Week 10 prepared the Rocks well because Upper Arlington who missed the play-offs after losing to Coffman played a tough schedule and lost their QB a month ago. They became more a power running team with a large O-Line and two quality running backs that I think are as good as Whitmer's guys . UA O-line is big not Enormous like Whitmer's but they move better. Coffman won the field position battle overall and made UA drive the length of the field and they couldn't do it as Coffman shut them out in a driving rain. So I thin the last two game give Coffman confidence and has prepared them well to play well tonight . Whitmer is prepared scheme wise having played Orange but must elevate their level of play to have a similar result tonight . Speaking of being prepared for what's coming?


D-1 Region 3


# 1 Davidson vs. # Springfield - LP Line HD - 8


Interestingly Cal Preps who usually has larger spreads than Louie P has this one at HD - 3 . That sticks out like a sore thumb . I also think it is more accurate . I made this line 4.5 , of course there aren't half points here . In other words If I was taking bets I make this one 4.5 .


The reason I am taking the 8 points here is because of the fact that Springfield is playing their sixth game vs. a similar offense to Davidson's . That doesn't happen much and it NEVER happens in Central Ohio as part of Davidson's edge is they face teams that basically never see what they do except for when they play them . You9 get into a rhythm facing spread like teams for a month or more and then BOOM you face Davidson and it is HARD both mentally and physically .



Springfield is a novice compared to Davidson in terms of play-off experience as a program , BUT in terms of the kids playing against each other tonight? No advantage at all . Both teams were one and done in 2016 , with Springfield losing to Pick Central 35-14 , and Davidson lost to Coffman 24-3 .

Last year S-Field was 6-4 and missed the play-offs and Davidson was 5-5 and was home in week 11 . Springfield has Fairmont the last two weeks losing one and winning the play-off rematch last week. this ahs prepared them to play Davidson well I believe. I think Springfield is definitely better against the run than Wayne was . They are a more physical team which bodes better vs Davidson. Styles make fights.


Wayne was able to pass the ball on Davidson , but S-Field will run it more and this game may fly by quickly and stay close throughout . Many around here in Central Ohio just pencil in Davidson to advance because over the last 15-20 years that's what has happened a majority of the time. This is a different time though. Davidson didn't win a paly-off game vs. a team they hadn't already played in the regular season until they beat Wayne last week since 2013 { 2014 lost round one to Coffman, 2015 beat UA and Central Crossing who were league foes before losing to Wayne, lost to Coffman in round one 2016 and missed last year} ? I believe they will run into a team that will defend what they do better than Wayne did last week certainly and that S-Field will also attempt to run the ball and play more conservatively shortening the game and making those 8 points Louie is giving me very valuable . Springfield matches up better here and Wayne came within 7 , so I feel S-Field can as well .

Davidson 16 Springfield 14
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Old 11-09-18, 01:00 PM
Harrycrane Harrycrane is offline
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Week 12 cont.

D-1 R-3


# 5 Pickerington Central vs. # 2 Northmont - LP Line PC - 1


Basically a pick em ? PC is certainly not the same offense this year, more than enough evidence of that . They aren't coming out flat as much as some want to say, the fact is they are more vulnerable . Bradley is may be a better team this year than PC . I think that is a distinct possibility rather than PC was just flat in a play-off game.

Defense is still at a top level , but not every game. This isn't the same team playing at the same level getting the same margins. Northmont like Springfield compared to Davidson doesn't have the play-off pedigree . When did they win a play-off game last? Off the top of my head I can't remember . I know they don't make the play-offs like 2014-2016 , made it in 2013 and lost first round and lost to this club last year by 20 . I think the gap has lessened greatly from that margin but the team with a excellent defensive line that is more battle tested is the team I am comfortable going with here.


I Think it is a great match-up and that Northmont is capable of winning the ballgame , but doing it is a different story. PC has so much experience at this stage it is a difference maker.


PC has relied too much on their defense to score to set up scores and their special teams to make up for the offenses rebuild mode production. Eventually this bites them in the AZZ { Colerain?} but this week ? I think they skate by again by a small margin .


PC 20 Northmont 16
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  #501  
Old 11-09-18, 01:16 PM
WJ-OSU-STEELERS WJ-OSU-STEELERS is offline
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Harry - I agree with your philosophy/belief regarding 'styles make fights' but believing the UA game prepared Dublin Coffman for Toledo Whitmer and the playoffs might be a bit of a reach. UA had a dominant lineman in the kid going to Boston College but your talking about a team that has gone 5-5, 4-6 and 8-2 over the last three seasons. UA lost their starting qb in week 5 or so and their head coach was suspended in week 9. Yes, UA played Hilliard Davidson tough in week 6 losing 17-7 and played Dublin Coffman tough in week 10 losing 17-0 but it's also a Golden Bear team that could only beat Westland 21-0 in week 5.

The talent and more importantly the intensity ramp up in the playoffs each week. Week 11 one may have a talent advantage over an opponent but by week 12 and almost always by week 13 you are facing just as good of team as your are. Regardless if it's peewee, high school, college or the NFL - closely contested games come down to:
1) Eliminating turnovers or at least winning the turnover battle
2) Keeping penalties to a minimum
3) Do not give up the big plays - long returns, block punts/kicks, plays of 20+ yards
4) Don't beat yourself with mental mistakes

Also, you mention that the attendance/crowds were disappointing in week 11. I think the weather had something to do with it but I believe a bigger factor might be a bit of complacency by the fans. Dublin Coffman has made the playoffs for the 10th consecutive year and was playing a 5-5 Westerville Central team. There was little chance of WC beating them and although I think Dublin Coffman has a good chance of making to the State Semifinals I don't think too many people consider them a title contender/favorite - they are probable a year away from possibly being that.

Good luck to all teams in week 12.
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Old 11-09-18, 01:17 PM
Harrycrane Harrycrane is offline
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Week 12 cont.


D-1 R-4

# 3 Elder vs. # 7 Lakota East - LP line Elder - 9


This one doesn't require a lot of thought to me. Nor does the next game in R-4 I will make a prediction on . Cal Preps made it a 16 point spread . I had it at 14.5 if taking action . I think Elder is hot right now is really prepared and ready to play this team and be successful . Lakota is pretty good, but I see them losing to Fairfield by 14 and see them losing to this team by that similar margin . Narrow win vs. Mason has this team a bit more worn than Elder who ran over Moeller .

Elder 27 LE 13





# 1 Colerain vs. # 4 Milford- LP Line Cole train - 24


C-Preps has it at 31 ? OUCH , at this stage in D-1 you rarely see this type of margin or disparity . Fairfield had a 100 year flood version of a football collapse last week . Milford just stopped giving each other high fives and big back slaps an hour ago I think . Is there a chance that because they were expecting a rematch with Fairfield that they may be flat or overlook this club? YES no question. Will it really matter? NO .


Milford can be a little loose on defense , that's not good in the play-offs against a team like this . Colerain names the score on offense ? Milford has a nice offense though so they score some themselves . Just not enough



Cole Train 51 Milford 21 .
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Old 11-09-18, 01:21 PM
Harrycrane Harrycrane is offline
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I don't agree, UA has a good sized line like Whitmer has with good backs who are physical . I realize it doesn't prepare them for the passing game especially with the rain that night . My main point wasn't about records or anything other than what I wrote, Physical Larger O-line and the running aspect of Witmer's scheme . And Last week WC runs a similar scheme as many teams do of course and their QB is above average . Whitmer's is more polished and experienced albeit younger than WC'S Davis. it isn't handpicking sparring partners of course, but I think they should be ready to go tonight.
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Old 11-09-18, 01:27 PM
Harrycrane Harrycrane is offline
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Again with the attendance I thin weather and Spectrum streaming the games as well played a role, because there was better attendance for the Central Crossing game and just about every other game. it was more than but on par with the Westland game last year . You would have seen it other weeks if it was complacent . Last year vs Olentangy it was a good turnout for instance in round one .

I think playing clean is important and Coffman has played cleanly the last few weeks , not always great but are making teams beat them . Hopefully that continues tonight . Teams are close in terms of talent, my guess is if mistakes are close to even TO'S Penalties et al , what happens up front is what determines the winner as it often does.
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  #505  
Old 11-09-18, 01:43 PM
WJ-OSU-STEELERS WJ-OSU-STEELERS is offline
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Harry - We'll have to agree to disagree regarding the UA game. However, the UA lineman who is the Boston College recruit will give you great insight on how the Dublin Coffman lineman might fare against the Reynoldsburg D-Line - assuming both teams make it week 13.
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Old 11-09-18, 01:46 PM
Harrycrane Harrycrane is offline
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You are really infatuated with that kid Ness aren't you ? You've brought that up how many times ? Yes if Coffman fortunate enough to advance they get3 absolutely obliterated by R-Burg D-line I agree. Man vs Boys , me vs you handicapping games . Nolo contendere .
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  #507  
Old 11-09-18, 02:10 PM
WJ-OSU-STEELERS WJ-OSU-STEELERS is offline
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Dublin Coffman didn’t have a answer for him on either side of the ball in 2017, didn’t see the 2018 game. Just shocked he isn’t going to a bigger school, don’t know him at all but the tape doesn’t lie, he was the best player on the field in the 2017 Dublin-UA game. Also thought the Dublin TE in 2017 was impressive, don’t know if he graduated last year or not. Kind of funny having you tell someone they are infatuated with a player - you have written books on 1/2 of your beloved Shamrock players.
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  #508  
Old 11-09-18, 02:25 PM
Harrycrane Harrycrane is offline
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Lighten up I was being sarcastic that whole last post including R- Burg dominating a possible matchup although as I have respect and have mentioned how big and talented they are up front . Coffman TE is at Air Force.he had a nice game . Ness did a nice job last year but he didnít dominate the game that I remember anyway .

Ben Frye I thought is as good or better than he is and he didnít get major offers either ( BC he got and is doing well and he is at Duke) heís at a place he has a chance to play whuch is more important than a bigger name to
Me . Coffman did a nice job up front overall I thought agI st a good sized above average line . As a sparring partner I think they played physicL which they will have to do tonight against a very good sized line . That was my point notcwhatbtheircrecird wad and us and how they did against others . Pure run game sparring and size sparring .
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Old 11-09-18, 04:04 PM
Harrycrane Harrycrane is offline
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Wek 12 cont.

D-1 R-1


# Mentor vs # 5 McKinley - LP Line Mentor - 11


I think despite last weeks nice win vs Solon , a team that beat Mentor by a point{ Mentor QB was out} McKinley may have peaked a bit too soon? Not sure but i see this as a game that will be close for a while , but Mentor ahs some good size and talent up front and eventually i think it wins out . Kipp the Soph QB is back and has looked good from all accounts so I think Mentor a play-off veteran team who went to the final last year has enough here to pull away a bit in the second half . Made this line at 13.5 so close , but I like Mentor to cover the 11 here.

Mentor 31 CM 16



# 3 Euclid vs # 7 St Ed's - LP Line SE - 4


Euclid has some good talent a really 'Passionate " coach and has shown that when they step up to play the elite ? They fall short . I'm running out of time here, afternoon was busier than i thought , so I'm not going full analysis here , but it is hard to pick against Ed's even though they had a battle Royale last week. Will be competitive i believe but pedigree sometimes matters in these types of games .


Ed's 28 Euclid 20



getting ready top go to Marion and hopefully see the Rocks paly well , Good luck to all
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Old 11-09-18, 04:55 PM
Harrycrane Harrycrane is offline
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Going to be cold and crisp . Great night for football and to show your stuff . Big game neutral site vs. a quality new opponent trying to get your 11 th win , not something most teams do and get to a regional final . Big time players love these kind of nights and games . Fast focused and do your job with confidence . Go Rocks
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