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  #1021  
Old 03-12-18, 04:16 PM
14Red 14Red is offline
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Originally Posted by wolves82 View Post
Well the injuries certainly stink. Much like 14turd's spelling. For the record it is: DeSclafani and Finnegan not "Disclafani and Finnigan".

Unfortunate for those guys, but IMO those guys are only marginally better than any of the young guys mentioned. My win prediction is unchanged, I wasn't counting on anything special from "Disclafani and Finnigan".

I'm rooting for Lorenzen. He, Garrett, Mahle and Stephenson all have higher ceilings than the 2 that got hurt. Hopefully at least 2 of the 4 figure it out.
How about Disco and Finney, is that better? I don't think Lorenzen can be a starter, he struggles going more than a few innings, and he, like Iglesias, tends to break down when they start. Anthony DeSclafani was a pretty darn good pitcher in '16. Any of the above duplicates his '16, we'll be tickled to death. I'd agree with Finny, he's not done anything significant in the majors.
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  #1022  
Old 03-12-18, 06:14 PM
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Obviously losing those two is a hit and makes a terrible rotation even worse. When healthy, Disco is legitamently the best starter on the team.
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  #1023  
Old 03-13-18, 11:30 AM
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DeSclafani was good in 2016, certainly. Before that, meh. Made it to the MLB at age 25, so he is not a "set the world on fire" type of prospect with a high ceiling.

Given the lost year in 2017, I don't think he is head and shoulders above some of the young guys who actually played baseball in 2017. He doesn't have 3-5 years of experience and track record to say that we know what he is yet.

Am I disappointed we won't have him for a few months? Absolutely. Does his absence make the Reds 5 games worse in the standings? Nope, not IMO.

Castillo (25) has a much higher ceiling, as do Romano (24), Stephenson (25), Lorenzen (26), Mahle (23), and even Garrett (25). I'd love to see 2 or 3 of them figure out how to harness their stuff and become MLB pitchers. Castillo is well on the way.
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  #1024  
Old 03-13-18, 11:34 AM
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No doubt it makes an already weak rotation, even weaker.
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  #1025  
Old 03-13-18, 12:40 PM
Indiandad Indiandad is offline
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Originally Posted by wolves82 View Post
DeSclafani was good in 2016, certainly. Before that, meh. Made it to the MLB at age 25, so he is not a "set the world on fire" type of prospect with a high ceiling.

Given the lost year in 2017, I don't think he is head and shoulders above some of the young guys who actually played baseball in 2017. He doesn't have 3-5 years of experience and track record to say that we know what he is yet.

Am I disappointed we won't have him for a few months? Absolutely. Does his absence make the Reds 5 games worse in the standings? Nope, not IMO.

Castillo (25) has a much higher ceiling, as do Romano (24), Stephenson (25), Lorenzen (26), Mahle (23), and even Garrett (25). I'd love to see 2 or 3 of them figure out how to harness their stuff and become MLB pitchers. Castillo is well on the way.
If it is only 2 months then no it probably won't make the Reds 5 games worse. If it is the whole season then probably keeps this teams win totals in the 60's.
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  #1026  
Old 03-13-18, 03:17 PM
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I agree it makes the rotation weaker, but only marginally, and only if you are concerned with W-L results this year. I don't care if they win 75 or 72 or 68 games. I do care that 2-3 of the other young pitchers with high potential start to look like Castillo looked last summer/fall. That is the key to the season.
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  #1027  
Old 03-13-18, 04:02 PM
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I don't think any of us can be shocked that Disco and Finny are hurt, even if we hear Bailey has problems we can't be shocked. We were just hopeful they could stay healthy and perform at a minimum level at least. Disco worries me, he seems to break down with any extended throwing now, covering 18 months now. Finnigan is too young to even know what we have. He may return, just days for him, not weeks.
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  #1028  
Old 03-13-18, 07:18 PM
Indiandad Indiandad is offline
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Originally Posted by wolves82 View Post
I agree it makes the rotation weaker, but only marginally, and only if you are concerned with W-L results this year. I don't care if they win 75 or 72 or 68 games. I do care that 2-3 of the other young pitchers with high potential start to look like Castillo looked last summer/fall. That is the key to the season.
If they get 3 young pitchers to pitch like Castillo did last year as well as Castillo and they do it all year long then wins and losses will matter. This team would be in the hunt.
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  #1029  
Old 03-14-18, 10:49 AM
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Originally Posted by Indiandad View Post
If they get 3 young pitchers to pitch like Castillo did last year as well as Castillo and they do it all year long then wins and losses will matter. This team would be in the hunt.
Let's be reasonable. Castillo had 15 starts and was good. Approx. 3.2 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 98 K in 89 IP. However, he averaged under 6 IP per start, walked 32, and was only 3-7. I would say the sky is the limit for the kid. 99 MPH and some wicked off-speed. but he isn't quite there yet.

But if we extrapolate that to a full season (approx. 30 starts) Castillo goes 6-14. Some instances of poor bullpen, some poor run support, and a few where he just lost it himself.

Are you saying if we get 3 others to go 6-14 the Reds will be in the hunt? Or are you saying the rest of the team has improved so much that the W-L will be better with similar pitching lines to Castillo in 2017?

Please clarify.
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  #1030  
Old 03-14-18, 10:57 AM
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Originally Posted by Indiandad View Post
WI let should get 650+ plate appearances at the lead off spot. He had an OBP of .375 that equates to 240 times on base ahead of Suarez, Votto, Gennett, Duvall etc. I'd say 100 runs scored is not unreasonable.
Pinch running Billy 162 times compared to his 188 times on base this year (he scored 85 runs). He would be on base late in games against relievers who in general are easier to steal on and therefore in scoring position more often. 80 steals and 100 runs is not out of the question.
For those interested, this convo starts on page 6 of this thread and is a fun read. Winker batting lead off and Billy pinch running 162 games insures the Reds will score 100 more runs this year and average 5.27 runs per game, the highest in the NL since 2008.

My bad, they will be in the hunt.
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  #1031  
Old 03-14-18, 12:57 PM
Monclova Steve Monclova Steve is offline
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Yep......and frogs will fly out of my butt!

I'm assuming, wolves82, that you're being extremely sarcastic.

Last edited by Monclova Steve; 03-14-18 at 04:03 PM..
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  #1032  
Old 03-14-18, 03:50 PM
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Originally Posted by 14Red View Post
I don't think any of us can be shocked that Disco and Finny are hurt, even if we hear Bailey has problems we can't be shocked. We were just hopeful they could stay healthy and perform at a minimum level at least. Disco worries me, he seems to break down with any extended throwing now, covering 18 months now. Finnigan is too young to even know what we have. He may return, just days for him, not weeks.
Absolutely no one expressed suprise, much less shock. But thatís a good post for you.
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  #1033  
Old 03-14-18, 04:06 PM
Monclova Steve Monclova Steve is offline
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Originally Posted by eastside_purple View Post
Absolutely no one expressed suprise, much less shock. But thatís a good post for you.
Agreed. That is a good post from 14Red.

He is STILL telling the rest of us what he assumes we were thinking, though. Why he seems to feel that's necessary, I have no idea.
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  #1034  
Old 03-14-18, 05:24 PM
Indiandad Indiandad is offline
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Originally Posted by wolves82 View Post
For those interested, this convo starts on page 6 of this thread and is a fun read. Winker batting lead off and Billy pinch running 162 games insures the Reds will score 100 more runs this year and average 5.27 runs per game, the highest in the NL since 2008.

My bad, they will be in the hunt.
This is very disingenuous of you. I expect this crap from a troll like EP but not you. You're better than that.
If you want to bring up things that I stated at least tell the WHOLE story. I laid a very detailed path to get to that level of production. You are choosing now as others did then to ignore parts of that path.
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  #1035  
Old 03-14-18, 05:28 PM
Indiandad Indiandad is offline
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Originally Posted by wolves82 View Post
Let's be reasonable. Castillo had 15 starts and was good. Approx. 3.2 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 98 K in 89 IP. However, he averaged under 6 IP per start, walked 32, and was only 3-7. I would say the sky is the limit for the kid. 99 MPH and some wicked off-speed. but he isn't quite there yet.

But if we extrapolate that to a full season (approx. 30 starts) Castillo goes 6-14. Some instances of poor bullpen, some poor run support, and a few where he just lost it himself.

Are you saying if we get 3 others to go 6-14 the Reds will be in the hunt? Or are you saying the rest of the team has improved so much that the W-L will be better with similar pitching lines to Castillo in 2017?

Please clarify.
4 starters with a WHIP of 1.05 and ERA of 3.2 each getting 30 starts. Yep, I'd say that would put them in the hunt. Even if each one throws 6 innings a start.
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  #1036  
Old 03-14-18, 05:44 PM
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Lol, fantasyland.
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  #1037  
Old 03-14-18, 07:10 PM
Indiandad Indiandad is offline
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Originally Posted by eastside_purple View Post
Lol, fantasyland.
Really? So you're saying that 4 starters throwing 196 innings in 30 starts with a 3.2 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP won't be enough to put this team in contention?

You are living in fantasyland.
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  #1038  
Old 03-14-18, 07:26 PM
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Originally Posted by Indiandad View Post
Really? So you're saying that 4 starters throwing 196 innings in 30 starts with a 3.2 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP won't be enough to put this team in contention?

You are living in fantasyland.
Iím saying it wonít come close to happening.
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  #1039  
Old 03-14-18, 07:36 PM
Indiandad Indiandad is offline
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Originally Posted by eastside_purple View Post
Iím saying it wonít come close to happening.
Who said it would?
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  #1040  
Old 03-14-18, 07:53 PM
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Originally Posted by Indiandad View Post
This is very disingenuous of you. I expect this crap from a troll like EP but not you. You're better than that.
If you want to bring up things that I stated at least tell the WHOLE story. I laid a very detailed path to get to that level of production. You are choosing now as others did then to ignore parts of that path.
You were being idiotic, I think he captured it pretty well.
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  #1041  
Old 03-14-18, 08:43 PM
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Originally Posted by eastside_purple View Post
You were being idiotic, I think he captured it pretty well.
Really? It was idiotic to point out just how good the rotation would be if they had 4 guys pitch as well as Castillo?

Stop trolling.


I'll gladly take rotation of that quality.
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  #1042  
Old 03-14-18, 09:27 PM
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Originally Posted by Indiandad View Post
Really? It was idiotic to point out just how good the rotation would be if they had 4 guys pitch as well as Castillo?

Stop trolling.


I'll gladly take rotation of that quality.
No, extrapolating the run production using made up Winker and Hamilton stats was idiotic. The rotation featuring extrapolated Castillo stats is just pure fantasy.
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  #1043  
Old 03-15-18, 06:34 AM
Indiandad Indiandad is offline
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Originally Posted by eastside_purple View Post
No, extrapolating the run production using made up Winker and Hamilton stats was idiotic. The rotation featuring extrapolated Castillo stats is just pure fantasy.
Then take it up with Wolves. He is the one who extrapolated them.
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  #1044  
Old 03-15-18, 07:12 AM
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Originally Posted by Indiandad View Post
Then take it up with Wolves. He is the one who extrapolated them.
I generally posted ďfantasylandĒ towards your (the two of you) discussion. Apparently youíre so butthurt, you assumed I was only addressing you.
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  #1045  
Old 03-15-18, 07:28 AM
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Allow me to summarize for the reading comprehension challenged.

I have no illusions about the Reds being in the hunt. I expressed my goal for the season to have 2-3 of the young SPs start to look like Castillo looked last summer/fall. That is pretty much my direct quote. And that would be a huge step forward in the rebuild.

Indiandad took that quote and said the Reds would be in the hunt if that happened. I merely pointed to Castillo's numbers, and said the Reds would not be in the hunt if 2-3 pitchers replicated his W-L percentage. because even with Castillo's decent pitching numbers, the team (bullpen, offense, etc.) wasn't good enough to win.
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  #1046  
Old 03-15-18, 07:38 AM
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Right, the whole process of extrapolating castillo’s 15 starts last season to 4 Reds pitchers was fantasyland. I’m not sure what the issue is with that.

And I get it, starting to look like Castillo did last year, doesn’t mean pitching that way all year. It was just a moronic exercise, but indiandad does that on here. He continuously cherry picks stats and extrapolates them to make an argument the Reds and their players are better than they actually are. The moronic projection of season scoring and his valuation of Cozart bear that out.
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  #1047  
Old 03-15-18, 08:18 AM
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Originally Posted by eastside_purple View Post
Right, the whole process of extrapolating castilloís 15 starts last season to 4 Reds pitchers was fantasyland. Iím not sure what the issue is with that.

And I get it, starting to look like Castillo did last year, doesnít mean pitching that way all year. It was just a moronic exercise, but indiandad does that on here. He continuously cherry picks stats and extrapolates them to make an argument the Reds and their players are better than they actually are. The moronic projection of season scoring and his valuation of Cozart bear that out.
Except Wolves said if they pitched that way all year (30 starts, 180 innings each). 4 pitchers, any 4 pitchers on the same staff having 180 innings and 30 starts with a WHIP of 1.05 and an ERA of 3.2 will keep their team in the hunt. Of course it is ridiculous to think the Reds will get that this year. Name any team that got that last year.

As for Cozart, I said he would get a $40M contract. I overvalued it by $2M so technically you're right about him. Of course I also said last around early July year that if Gennett played everyday he would hit 25 HR with 85 RBI and bat .300. I pretty much nailed that although I was light on the HR and RBI total.

I also said the Reds would have been better off with Phillips on the team since they were paying him to play elsewhere than they were with Alcantara. Since the Reds cut Alcantara mid season I'd say I was right about that as well. At least Phillips managed to stay in the league for the entire season.

You on the other hand said I was wrong in each occassion. You cherry picked half sentences and phrases to twist around and totally ignored other statements entirely to try and prove me wrong. That's your MO. You are incapable or unwilling to have an honest debate.
Case in point: your above statement about the Reds offense this season. You still haven't acknowledge my ENTIRE argument. You continually pick out only one part of it as if that is all that was said. You are a troll. Nothing more.

You are the reason there are only a handful of posters on any Reds thread. Your trolling drives them off.
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  #1048  
Old 03-15-18, 08:26 AM
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How is the search going on the Choo thing btw?

What part of the reds offense discussion did I ignore?
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  #1049  
Old 03-15-18, 08:37 AM
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Originally Posted by Indiandad View Post
Except Wolves said if they pitched that way all year (30 starts, 180 innings each). 4 pitchers, any 4 pitchers on the same staff having 180 innings and 30 starts with a WHIP of 1.05 and an ERA of 3.2 will keep their team in the hunt. Of course it is ridiculous to think the Reds will get that this year. Name any team that got that last year.

As for Cozart, I said he would get a $40M contract. I overvalued it by $2M so technically you're right about him. Of course I also said last around early July year that if Gennett played everyday he would hit 25 HR with 85 RBI and bat .300. I pretty much nailed that although I was light on the HR and RBI total.

I also said the Reds would have been better off with Phillips on the team since they were paying him to play elsewhere than they were with Alcantara. Since the Reds cut Alcantara mid season I'd say I was right about that as well. At least Phillips managed to stay in the league for the entire season.

You on the other hand said I was wrong in each occassion. You cherry picked half sentences and phrases to twist around and totally ignored other statements entirely to try and prove me wrong. That's your MO. You are incapable or unwilling to have an honest debate.
Case in point: your above statement about the Reds offense this season. You still haven't acknowledge my ENTIRE argument. You continually pick out only one part of it as if that is all that was said. You are a troll. Nothing more.

You are the reason there are only a handful of posters on any Reds thread. Your trolling drives them off.
Well said...

It's time for this tread to get back to on the field items. Nitpicking opinions is just silly and a waste of time. We all have opinions and this is a message board, right?

I assume we are all Reds fans on here and want to see the team win. The opinions and ideas on how to get there widely vary. I'm a Reds fan because I like baseball and I've always followed the Reds, win or lose. I'll follow the team for 162 games regardless of the record. I'd love to see Castillo become the staff ace and one of the best young pitchers in baseball, but it's way early and we just don't know for sure yet. High end for Homer is that he's a 175-200 inning pitcher, wins 10+ games and gives us a chance, low end is he continues to struggle getting major league hitters out and the club is forced to cut their losses and move him out of the rotation. I have no idea how this is going to pan out. I tend to be an optimistic person and hope this team can somehow piece enough together to hang around for awhile. As I've said before in baseball you don't have to be great, you just have to be average to above average to stay in contention. We've started mostly single and double A pitchers the last few seasons. That's been the largest issue with this team.
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  #1050  
Old 03-15-18, 12:33 PM
Indiandad Indiandad is offline
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Originally Posted by wolves82 View Post
Allow me to summarize for the reading comprehension challenged.

I have no illusions about the Reds being in the hunt. I expressed my goal for the season to have 2-3 of the young SPs start to look like Castillo looked last summer/fall. That is pretty much my direct quote. And that would be a huge step forward in the rebuild.

Indiandad took that quote and said the Reds would be in the hunt if that happened. I merely pointed to Castillo's numbers, and said the Reds would not be in the hunt if 2-3 pitchers replicated his W-L percentage. because even with Castillo's decent pitching numbers, the team (bullpen, offense, etc.) wasn't good enough to win.
Do you honestly think that 4 starters who have 30 starts and 180 innings with a 3.2 ERA and 1.05 WHIP would only win a combined total of 24 games?
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