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  #91  
Old 06-02-15, 03:45 PM
Crusaders Crusaders is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Oil Filter View Post
One year, 10 years, 25 years. Is the math too much for you?

It's a simple question: how much annual revenue should Canton expect to see for a $250 million investment?


It's unlikely that the HOF will close its doors in 25 years, so why not give them 50 years to pay it off? Why not 100?
The timeline matters whether you want to believe it or not. And what would be acceptable depends on the manner the money was put together. If it was all funded from a tax, then it will be paid for over the time of the tax. If there's loans involved, that changes things. If it's partially one and the other, then that changes things. Just because I cannot offer you up a solid figure doesn't change the fact that Canton paying $250million for billions in economic impact is an easy decision. You seem hellbent on seeing nothing but failure. That's your problem.

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Last edited by Crusaders; 06-02-15 at 04:05 PM.
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  #92  
Old 06-02-15, 04:19 PM
Oil Filter Oil Filter is offline
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Originally Posted by Crusaders View Post
The timeline matters whether you want to believe it or not. And what would be acceptable depends on the manner the money was put together. If it was all funded from a tax, then it will be paid for over the time of the tax. If there's loans involved, that changes things. If it's partially one and the other, then that changes things.
There is no polite way to put this: you have no idea what you're talking about. The rudiments of investment and return completely elude you.

Example: The ticket surcharge tax has no expiration. Should we then accept a potential break-even point in 2000 years as being acceptable?

Rhetorical question: do you understand the concept of opportunity cost? What other investments might be foregone to make this one? Is this the best possible use of the tax dollars?

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Originally Posted by Crusaders View Post
Just because I cannot offer you up a solid figure doesn't change the fact that Canton paying $250million for billions in economic impact is an easy decision.
An investment with no firm payback forecast is an easy decision. But not the decision that you would make. However, it is the decision that any responsible investor would make.
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  #93  
Old 06-02-15, 05:09 PM
Sykotyk Sykotyk is offline
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Originally Posted by Crusaders View Post
I like how you want to limit it to annual instead of over time, because these things certainly aren't paid for after a single year. The projection is over 25 years. If brings in billions over that span, the project will be paid for well before the end of that time.

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You don't know what Annual means?

The state, county, city, etc shouldn't care how much revenue the NFL brings it, they should care how much tax money THEY bring in to cover the expenditure of the government.

Sure, the NFL thinks it's a great deal and is completely happy with it. For instance, if I give you $100 to do something, and you turn around and make $1000 on it and I get $10 back on the deal... do you think I'd be happy? Sure, YOU'D be happy, but I wouldn't be.
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  #94  
Old 06-02-15, 07:08 PM
unclebob unclebob is offline
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where is the 70 mill coming from....
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  #95  
Old 06-02-15, 07:25 PM
Crusaders Crusaders is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Oil Filter View Post
There is no polite way to put this: you have no idea what you're talking about. The rudiments of investment and return completely elude you.

Example: The ticket surcharge tax has no expiration. Should we then accept a potential break-even point in 2000 years as being acceptable?

Rhetorical question: do you understand the concept of opportunity cost? What other investments might be foregone to make this one? Is this the best possible use of the tax dollars?


An investment with no firm payback forecast is an easy decision. But not the decision that you would make. However, it is the decision that any responsible investor would make.
I absolutely know how investment works. I'm afraid that your paranoia and pessimism are not shared here.

Ignoring the projections just because you don't feel like public money should be spent is, well, ignorant. The projections exist for a reason and they don't pull them out of thin air. Even if works out to be half a lucrative, it would be worth it for the city.

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  #96  
Old 06-02-15, 07:29 PM
Crusaders Crusaders is offline
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Originally Posted by Sykotyk View Post
You don't know what Annual means?

The state, county, city, etc shouldn't care how much revenue the NFL brings it, they should care how much tax money THEY bring in to cover the expenditure of the government.

Sure, the NFL thinks it's a great deal and is completely happy with it. For instance, if I give you $100 to do something, and you turn around and make $1000 on it and I get $10 back on the deal... do you think I'd be happy? Sure, YOU'D be happy, but I wouldn't be.
Of course I do, I'm afraid my point escapes you.

If the economy sees $7.5 billion over 25 years instead of the projected $15billion, so what? That's still $7.5 billion that would not have been there before, and it cost the city a fraction of that to get moving. So if people want to harp on one the annual return, I say who the hell cares? As long as the economy is benefiting as predicted, the money will come.



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  #97  
Old 06-02-15, 07:32 PM
Oil Filter Oil Filter is offline
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Originally Posted by Crusaders View Post
Ignoring the projections just because you don't feel like public money should be spent is, well, ignorant.
There are no objections to public money being spent. There is much objection to public money being wasted. As in almost every large public/private "partnership" involving professional sports, it is doubtful that the promised public benefit will ever materialize.

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Originally Posted by Crusaders View Post
The projections exist for a reason and they don't pull them out of thin air.
That reason is to sell to the gullible. It seems to be working.

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Originally Posted by Crusaders View Post
Even if works out to be half a lucrative, it would be worth it for the city.
Again, define lucrative. What does the city need to get to make this worthwhile? You want the city to spend $250 million. What should they expect to see in return?
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  #98  
Old 06-02-15, 07:39 PM
Crusaders Crusaders is offline
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Originally Posted by Oil Filter View Post
There are no objections to public money being spent. There is much objection to public money being wasted. As in almost every large public/private "partnership" involving professional sports, it is doubtful that the promised public benefit will ever materialize.


That reason is to sell to the gullible. It seems to be working.


Again, define lucrative. What does the city need to get to make this worthwhile? You want the city to spend $250 million. What should they expect to see in return?
You're talking about stadium developments. There are many reasons why those tend to not work, and they don't have much to do with this project.

Again, your paranoia and pessimism are not shared here.

Billions being created in the local economy isn't lucrative? Oh, wait, right. That's a lie. They're just making it up. It's easy to simply ignore information when you don't like it.

This area has been doing it your way for decades and it's brought nothing but depression. Let people with actual ideas handle things.

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  #99  
Old 06-02-15, 08:20 PM
Oil Filter Oil Filter is offline
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Originally Posted by Crusaders View Post
You're talking about stadium developments. There are many reasons why those tend to not work, and they don't have much to do with this project.
Except for the Tom Benson Stadium. Which you seem to think is not a stadium.

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Billions being created in the local economy isn't lucrative? Oh, wait, right. That's a lie. They're just making it up.
History would suggest that they are.

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This area has been doing it your way for decades and it's brought nothing but depression.
It appears that your knowledge of history is no better than your understanding of economics.
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  #100  
Old 06-02-15, 08:58 PM
Mikefln Mikefln is offline
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Crusader, I think we all agree that this is a fantastic opportunity for Canton. With that said we are asking an small economically depressed city to front 250 million. Well then questions must be asked. I would want to know how those projections came to be. What data did they use, what surveys did they take, etc.
I am not speaking for oil, but the question is " how much of the 15 billion (I.e. The % in taxes of the gross of the 15 billion) over 25 years is Canton going to get? You also better believe that the annual revenue to the city matters. Canton is going to barrow that money. Canton as an A1 rating according to Moody's which is considered "investment grade" so that is good, but they still are going to pay interest. The first few years when construction is happening the money will not be coming in yet. will Canton have the money to pay that interest? This is not as simple as you make it out to be. This is a great opportunity, but due delligence still needs to be taken.
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  #101  
Old 06-02-15, 10:14 PM
arizonawildcat arizonawildcat is offline
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Anyone who uses the word "billions" in any way in connection with this project should be certified as an idiot.
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  #102  
Old 06-03-15, 06:00 AM
Egret Egret is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by arizonawildcat View Post
Anyone who uses the word "billions" in any way in connection with this project should be certified as an idiot.
Well finally someone has addressed the white elephant in the room. It's absolutely ludicrous to be throwing that word around and I said it many posts ago.

Mikefln that was a great post and really nets it out. Perhaps Crusaders will comprehend it since it's not coming from Oil Filter. And yes, I think they have absolutely pulled those numbers from thin air. Not one pertinent data point to confirm their numbers. Not one. BUT. Good luck with the project. I hope it works for the area.
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  #103  
Old 06-03-15, 07:33 AM
Mikefln Mikefln is offline
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Well said Arizona and Egret. I didn't want to be mean and say those numbers sounded way too optimistic to me, so I beat it around the bush. Listen I am from Pittsburgh born and raised. I have been to a few Massillon Canton games, but I never been to the HOF. The closest I've been to going there was when Marino was inducted.

That is still the only main draw, the actual ceremonies. Other than that I do not see why people from Pittsburgh or farther would travel to Canton for everything else that this project is purposing. Hell if I wasn't a football nut and follow hs football from both PA and Ohio, I would have not heard about this project. The only place and I mean the only place this is talked about is Stark County and this board.

Guys follow the money, if this project was the financial coup (15 billion) the NFL is making it out to be, the only thing they would want from Canton is help with zoning, building permits, etc. They would finance the whole thing without backing an eye and would be working fast. The NFL seems to be acting slow on this. That is the first clue.
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  #104  
Old 06-03-15, 07:53 AM
Egret Egret is offline
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Two words: Class dismissed.
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  #105  
Old 06-03-15, 09:00 AM
Mackinbiner Mackinbiner is offline
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Originally Posted by Egret View Post
Two words: Class dismissed.
So, it's official. Yappi's resident experts have decreed this project has no chance of succeeding and should not go forward. Who will volunteer to call the NFL and let them know?
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  #106  
Old 06-03-15, 09:28 AM
serpico serpico is offline
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The last time I saw this many people tell everyone who they weren't friends with was in 7th grade
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  #107  
Old 06-03-15, 09:35 AM
Egret Egret is offline
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You're right. I deleted it.
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  #108  
Old 06-03-15, 09:39 AM
12346 12346 is offline
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The last time I saw this many people tell everyone who they weren't friends with was in 7th grade
It's funny about the Massillon posters who post just to say they have you on ignore, they have their little site they flock to but there's no issue in them bashing this site and bad mouthing posters on here. They're the perfect examples of being able to dish it out, but their skin isn't thick enough to receive it back. I'm more shocked the amount of Massillon posters who have gone through multiple screen names...Egret has three different screen names on this site...loser

It's ok, they threw in their white towel and gave up.
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  #109  
Old 06-03-15, 09:55 AM
Mikefln Mikefln is offline
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Originally Posted by Mackinbiner View Post
So, it's official. Yappi's resident experts have decreed this project has no chance of succeeding and should not go forward. Who will volunteer to call the NFL and let them know?
Never said it had no chance, never said they shouldn't go through with it. In fact I said this sounds like a good thing but I find those numbers optimistic. I said Canton needs to do their own due diligence, and not take the NFLs word with those numbers. Those numbers sound too good to be true and we know what happens more time than not when it sounds too good. Right now though we have numbers that are way optimistic, and the NFL still wants Canton to put money in. If those numbers were even half correct the NFL would be busting its to make this project a go. From what I see the NFL is moving slow.

That makes me wonder what the real projections are and what would be Canton ROI (return on investment)? This is business 101 folks. Crusader stated that the NFL wants Canton (a small city that is economically depressed) to front more than half the cost (250 million) of a 475 million dollar project. Is Canton going to get half the revenue? All I am saying is that Canton is not New York, Chicago, he'll it is not even Pittsburgh or Cleveland when taking a financial hit. They need to leave no stone unturned when trying to figure out their ROI, or they will be worse than Detriot.
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  #110  
Old 06-03-15, 09:58 AM
Crusaders Crusaders is offline
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Originally Posted by Oil Filter View Post
Except for the Tom Benson Stadium. Which you seem to think is not a stadium.


History would suggest that they are.


It appears that your knowledge of history is no better than your understanding of economics.
A stadium development, meaning the stadium bit is the focal point of the project, which it is, of course, not.

Many projects have succeeded, so no, history does not.

It appears you are part of the problem in the area and why nothing interesting ever happens.

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  #111  
Old 06-03-15, 10:07 AM
Crusaders Crusaders is offline
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Originally Posted by Mikefln View Post
Crusader, I think we all agree that this is a fantastic opportunity for Canton. With that said we are asking an small economically depressed city to front 250 million. Well then questions must be asked. I would want to know how those projections came to be. What data did they use, what surveys did they take, etc.
I am not speaking for oil, but the question is " how much of the 15 billion (I.e. The % in taxes of the gross of the 15 billion) over 25 years is Canton going to get? You also better believe that the annual revenue to the city matters. Canton is going to barrow that money. Canton as an A1 rating according to Moody's which is considered "investment grade" so that is good, but they still are going to pay interest. The first few years when construction is happening the money will not be coming in yet. will Canton have the money to pay that interest? This is not as simple as you make it out to be. This is a great opportunity, but due delligence still needs to be taken.
My point about annual revenue "not mattering" was that it will be there regardless with the expected economic impact coming to fruition; it's an assumed result of a successful project. And we really do not know which methods would be used or if the city would even be asked for that much money. All of it is conjecture.

My point was, if the projection of $15billion over 25 years is only successful in bringing in half that much, the city paying $250million would be well worth it. Obviously, being able to see where the projections came from and how much will be asked for from Canton, or even the state, would make this all less conjecture.

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  #112  
Old 06-03-15, 10:17 AM
Crusaders Crusaders is offline
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Well said Arizona and Egret. I didn't want to be mean and say those numbers sounded way too optimistic to me, so I beat it around the bush. Listen I am from Pittsburgh born and raised. I have been to a few Massillon Canton games, but I never been to the HOF. The closest I've been to going there was when Marino was inducted.

That is still the only main draw, the actual ceremonies. Other than that I do not see why people from Pittsburgh or farther would travel to Canton for everything else that this project is purposing. Hell if I wasn't a football nut and follow hs football from both PA and Ohio, I would have not heard about this project. The only place and I mean the only place this is talked about is Stark County and this board.

Guys follow the money, if this project was the financial coup (15 billion) the NFL is making it out to be, the only thing they would want from Canton is help with zoning, building permits, etc. They would finance the whole thing without backing an eye and would be working fast. The NFL seems to be acting slow on this. That is the first clue.
The NFL really isn't that involved with it, honestly, they really do not ever do much with the HOF outside of the enshrinement and the game. I think I remember hearing about them being "annoyed" about having to pay to install lights to make the HOF Game a night game. To say the NFL is behind this is just not correct. This is the HOF itself trying to make a better attraction out of a very underutilized asset.

As far as awareness goes, advertising will have to come into play when the project is finished. I've actually never even seen a billboard for the HOF anywhere outside of the Canton area, much less a commercial of some kind. And I'm sure the improvements will be talked about during the HOF weekend on national TV when they're happening and/or when they're completed. This is all a few years off. The place doesn't even have a final design yet.

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  #113  
Old 06-03-15, 10:21 AM
Egret Egret is offline
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Originally Posted by Mikefln View Post
Never said it had no chance, never said they shouldn't go through with it. In fact I said this sounds like a good thing but I find those numbers optimistic. I said Canton needs to do their own due diligence, and not take the NFLs word with those numbers. Those numbers sound too good to be true and we know what happens more time than not when it sounds too good. Right now though we have numbers that are way optimistic, and the NFL still wants Canton to put money in. If those numbers were even half correct the NFL would be busting its to make this project a go. From what I see the NFL is moving slow.

That makes me wonder what the real projections are and what would be Canton ROI (return on investment)? This is business 101 folks. Crusader stated that the NFL wants Canton (a small city that is economically depressed) to front more than half the cost (250 million) of a 475 million dollar project. Is Canton going to get half the revenue? All I am saying is that Canton is not New York, Chicago, he'll it is not even Pittsburgh or Cleveland when taking a financial hit. They need to leave no stone unturned when trying to figure out their ROI, or they will be worse than Detriot.
Nobody EVER said it didn't have a chance. All we're questioning are where they got the data points for the projections. Mikefln, don't try to discuss anything logical with these guys. They have their own agendas. Facts do not play into said agenda.
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  #114  
Old 06-03-15, 10:24 AM
Mikefln Mikefln is offline
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Crusader You pulled the 250 million out of thin air like I beleive the 15 billion was also. Let's do some math with the numbers from the article. 15 billion divided 25 years is 600 million a year. The projected cost is 475 million so a ROI of over 100% on 1st year. Now you say let's assume they are wrong by 50%, ok that would be 300 million and still over 50% ROI. If those numbers were good projections then the NFL would be on a rampage to get this done. That is not the case though, instead other than a sound bite here and there the NFL is silent. When all is said and done the cost to complete will be much higher and the ROI will be drastically lower. You know what, that is fine. Just as long as the real numbers provide a 10-15% ROI to the city, it is a good deal.
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  #115  
Old 06-03-15, 10:33 AM
Crusaders Crusaders is offline
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Phase 1 of the project is slated to be $200-$250million. It wasn't pulled out of thin air. The $15billion is the projection that came from a study. Its reliability is being called into question, and I've acknowledged that the whole time. Does anyone really feel like that HOF with improvements cannot be a bigger draw? That the stadium cannot be better utilized for entertainment? That a retail and restaurant area would fall flat on its face? THAT is what I don't buy. Even if the project only brings in half the economic benefit, it would be well worth it. Hell, 1/4 would be great.

By your logic, the NFL would be on a rampage to fully fund and build a new stadium in LA. They don't behave this way and really never have.

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  #116  
Old 06-03-15, 10:35 AM
arizonawildcat arizonawildcat is offline
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In many ways this whole project and its income projections remind me of a very old Simpsons episode where some sharpie convinces the good citizens of Springfield that the key to the economic development of their fair city is the construction of a monorail. The monorail is built and comedy, along with economic collapse, ensues.
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  #117  
Old 06-03-15, 11:10 AM
Mikefln Mikefln is offline
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Originally Posted by Crusaders View Post
Phase 1 of the project is slated to be $200-$250million. It wasn't pulled out of thin air. The $15billion is the projection that came from a study. Its reliability is being called into question, and I've acknowledged that the whole time. Does anyone really feel like that HOF with improvements cannot be a bigger draw? That the stadium cannot be better utilized for entertainment? That a retail and restaurant area would fall flat on its face? THAT is what I don't buy. Even. If the project only brings in half the economic benefit, it would be well worth it. Hell, 1/4 would be great.

By your logic, the NFL would be on a rampage to fully fund and build a new stadium in LA. They don't behave this way and really never had.

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Crusader, I never said the cost were pulled from thin air, but experience tells me that stuff happens that make the cost go up. Plus the whole project not phases is currently estimated at 475 million.

I did question the 15 billion that this project is supposed to bring in. I have stated many times that this sound like a good idea and it will draw better, but for any public money to fund this private enity there better be due delligence beforehand from the government itself. They cannot just take the other parties word.

I will tell you what, I will put my money where my mouth is. I did the math in a previous post for you with the numbers stated in the article. If those numbers are correct or half correct like you always bring up, if the NFL won't fund it I will as I am sure others maybe even yourself would want to also. I will sell my home,take out wife and my retirement,drain savings,drain kids college fund, barrow as much money as I can (I'm a Dave Ramsey kind of guy I don't barrow money so this is a huge statement for me to make) etc. I will take any government penalty for touching tax deferred money and pull it all and buy shares in this. I will live dirt poor for the 4 years to get this built then I will laugh at the world in 2020 when I am making top 1% type money.

Let me ask you, you think the NFL owners would give me this chance if this was so profitable? They would change how they act if those numbers are even half accurate like you always state. Yet their response is yawn! Again if the city can get 10-15% ROI on what they invest whatever that number is, it is a good deal.

Not sure what you point about LA is, never saw the numbers from that nor do I know the verocity of said study.
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  #118  
Old 06-03-15, 11:12 AM
Mikefln Mikefln is offline
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Originally Posted by arizonawildcat View Post
In many ways this whole project and its income projections remind me of a very old Simpsons episode where some sharpie convinces the good citizens of Springfield that the key to the economic development of their fair city is the construction of a monorail. The monorail is built and comedy, along with economic collapse, ensues.
Classic! LOL! Every time I go to Disney I drive my wife nuts because I always sing that song when I see the monorail. I literally mean every time it passes! LOL!
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  #119  
Old 06-03-15, 11:28 AM
Crusaders Crusaders is offline
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Crusader, I never said the cost were pulled from thin air, but experience tells me that stuff happens that make the cost go up. Plus the whole project not phases is currently estimated at 475 million.
I know how much the whole thing is said to cost, all phases included. All that's been talked about so far, from what I've read, is the first phase.

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I did question the 15 billion that this project is supposed to bring in. I have stated many times that this sound like a good idea and it will draw better, but for any public money to fund this private enity there better be due delligence beforehand from the government itself. They cannot just take the other parties word.
I don't disagree with that. What I disagree with is completely dismissing the project.

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Originally Posted by Mikefln View Post
I will tell you what, I will put my money where my mouth is. I did the math in a previous post for you with the numbers stated in the article. If those numbers are correct or half correct like you always bring up, if the NFL won't fund it I will as I am sure others maybe even yourself would want to also. I will sell my home,take out wife and my retirement,drain savings,drain kids college fund, barrow as much money as I can (I'm a Dave Ramsey kind of guy I don't barrow money so this is a huge statement for me to make) etc. I will take any government penalty for touching tax deferred money and pull it all and buy shares in this. I will live dirt poor for the 4 years to get this built then I will laugh at the world in 2020 when I am making top 1% type money.
No, you won't.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mikefln View Post
Let me ask you, you think the NFL owners would give me this chance if this was so profitable? They would change how they act if those numbers are even half accurate like you always state. Yet their response is yawn! Again if the city can get 10-15% ROI on what they invest whatever that number is, it is a good deal.
That is an extremely simple conclusion. You act like investors are always right. Good investors miss all the time. Bad investors hit sometimes. People pass on things that turn out to be huge and they go all-in on things that fail. There is very little to concluded based on who has and who hasn't invested.

There is always a certain amount of risk when you're dealing with the future, however in this case, I think the risks are pretty low.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mikefln View Post
Not sure what you point about LA is, never saw the numbers from that nor do I know the verocity of said study.
It's the same logic as the HOF. Why isn't the NFL on a rampage to build and fund a stadium for LA with all the potential in the second largest market in the country? Because they NEVER pay for anything. Has he NFL ever paid for a new stadium? How much did Jerry Jones get for his new stadium? How much did Cleveland get after Modell suckerpunched the city? How much did New Orleans get to rebuild the Superdome? The NFL DOES NOT pony up for anything, whether it be for their franchises or their Hall of Fame. So, acting as if it means anything that they're not throwing cash at this is just foolish.
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  #120  
Old 06-03-15, 11:35 AM
Striker300 Striker300 is offline
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Join Date: 06-14-09
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Is this an example of how you have 26k posts? Droning on and on with the same drivel? Could you please stop? Most of your logic is so off-base its pathetic, please stop.
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