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  #1  
Old 10-25-14, 07:01 PM
teach1coach2 teach1coach2 is offline
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Join Date: 10-22-07
Location: Muskingum County
Posts: 428
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Region 9 after week 9 (extreme analysis)

Most of this post is the MATH used to determine the Harbin points average. If you disagree with a “pick” I made as to who would win, I put how that affects the average and you can add or subtract as needed to see how it affects things overall [set up to be easy for non-Math people to use ] Normally, I have the better record winning unless common opponents or recent results led me to believe otherwise.

Below is an extreme mathematical analysis of the 10 teams with the best chance to make the playoffs in Region 9. Based on what has happened weeks 1-9 and what will likely happen week 10 with “favorites” winning, here would be the rankings:

FYI: I believe Dover beats New Philadelphia, Licking Valley beats Granville, and Hamilton Township beats Logan Elm.

1) Tri-Valley 28.95 – win (10-0)
2) Dover 28.44040 – win (8-2)
Granville 27.45 – win (9-1)
3) Jackson 26.48571 – win (10-0)
4) Athens 26.25 – win (10-0)
Logan Elm 25.55 – win (8-2)
5) Granville 23.35 – lose to Licking Valley (8-2)
Dover 22.95101 – lose to New Philadephia (7-3)
New Philadelphia 22.4 – win (8-2)
6) Logan Elm 21.95 – lose to Hamilton Township (7-3)
7) DeSales 20.90412 – win (8-2)
8 ) Chillicothe 18.1 – win (7-3)
9) New Philadelphia 18 – lose to Dover (7-3)
10)Big Walnut 17.88636 – win (7-3)


Prediction as of 10/25/14
#1 Tri-Valley hosts #8 Chillicothe (could easily be New Philly or Big Walnut)
#2 Dover hosts #7 DeSales
#3 Jackson hosts #6 Logan Elm
#4 Athens hosts #5 Granville


ORDER if all R9 teams listed win (except New Philly losing to Dover)
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#1 Tri-Valley (Projected 10-0) L1/10 + L2/10= 50/10 + 239.5/10=28.95

Week 1-9 L1= 45, L2= 195.5
Week 10 L1=5 beat Philo (4-5) & gained L2= 18.5 Minus 1.85 from ave. if Philo wins

New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 25.5
Granville over Licking Valley (0), if LV wins (5.5); Add .55 to ave. if LV wins
Zanesville over Marietta (5.5), if Mar wins (0); Minus .55 from ave. if Mar wins
West Muskingum over Morgan; TV beat both (5), if Mor wins (4.5) Minus .05 from ave. if Mor wins
Maysville over Claymont (5), if CL wins (0) Minus .5 from ave. if CL wins
Crooksville over John Glenn; TV beat both (5), if JG wins (4) Minus .1 from ave. if JG wins
Sheridan over New Lex; TV beat both (5), if NL wins (5.5) Add .05 to ave. if NL wins

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#2 Dover (Projected 8-2) L1/10 + L2/9.9= 44/10 + 238/9.9=28.44040 Projected Average (Approx. 22.95101 if New Philadelphia beats Dover in week 10)

Week 1-9 L1=38.5 , L2=172
Week 10 L1=5.5 beat New Philadelphia (7-2) & gained L2= 39 Minus 4.48939 from ave. if NP wins

New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 27
Lorne Park over St. Joan of Arc (who knows?)(6), if JoA wins (0) Minus .60606 to ave. if JoA wins
Poland over Canfield (0),if Canfield wins (5.5) Add .55556 to ave. if Canfield wins
Waite over Woodward (5.5), if Woodard wins (0) Minus .55556 from ave. if Woodard wins
Zanesville over Marietta; Dover beat both (5.5), if Mar wins (6) Add .05556 to ave. if Mar wins
Coshocton over River View (5), if RV wins (0) Minus .5155 from ave. if RV wins
Cambridge over Meadowbrook (5), if Mead wins (0) Minus .50505 from ave. if Mead wins

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#3 Granville (Projected 9-1) L1/10 + L2/10= 47/10 + 227.5/10=27.45 Projected Average (Approx. 23.35 if Licking Valley beats Granville in week 10)

Week 1-9 L1=42, L2=166.5
Week 10 L1=5 beat Licking Valley (7-2) gained L2=36 Minus 4.1 if LV wins

New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 25
River Valley over Upper Sandusky (5); if UA wins (0), Minus .5 if UA wins
Heath over Northridge (4.5), if Northridge wins (0) Minus .45 from ave. if Northridge wins
Cambridge over Meadowbrook (5), if Meadowbrook wins (0) Minus .5 from ave. if Meadowbrook wins
Newark Catholic over Utica (5), if Utica wins (4) Minus .4 from ave. if Utica wins
Watkins Memorial over Lakewood (5.5); Granville beat both, if Lak wins (6) Add .05 to ave. if Lak wins
Johnstown Monroe over Licking Heights (0), if LH wins (5) Add .5 to ave. if LH wins

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#4 Jackson (Projected 10-0) L1/10 + L2/9.8= 47/10 + 213.5/9.8=26.48571 Projected Average

Week 1-9 L1= 42, L2= 171
Week 10 L1=5 beat Gallia Academy (4-5) & gained L2= 18.5 Minus 2.38776 from ave. if GA wins

New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 24
Wellston over Vinton County (5.5); if VC wins (0), Minus .56122 from ave. if VC wins
Chesapeake over Waverly (0); if Ches wins (4.5), Add .45918 to ave. if Ches wins
West Jefferson over Londan (5), if Lon wins (0), Add .51020 to ave. if Lon wins
Hartley over Ready (0); if Ready wins (4.5), Add .45918 to ave. if Ready wins
Wheelersburg over P. West (4.5); if PT wins (0), Minus .45918 from ave. if PT wins
Logan over Warren Local (5); if WL wins (6), Add .10204 to ave. if WL wins
Hughes over Portsmouth (0); if Ports wins (5.5), Add .56122 to ave. if Ports wins
Ironton over Raceland (4); if Race wins (0), Minus .40816 from ave. if Race wins

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#5 Athens (Projected 10-0) L1/10 + L2/10=49/10 + 213.5/10 =26.25 Projected Average

Week 1-9 L1=45 , L2=157.5
Week 10 L1=4 beat NelsonvilleYork (7-2) & gained L2=32 (through 8 weeks) Minus 3.6 from ave. if NY wins

New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 24
Jackson over Gallia Academy (0); If GA wins (5.5), if GA wins (5.5) Add .55 ave. if GA wins
Zanesville over Marietta (5.5); if Mar wins (0), Minus .55 from ave. if Mar wins
Logan over Warren Local (0); if WL wins (6),Add .6 to ave. if WL wins
Steubenville over Canada Prep (3.5); if CP wins (0), Minus .35 from ave. if CP wins
Alexander over Meigs; Athens beat both (5), Minus .05 from ave. if Meigs wins
Wellston over Vinton County; Athens beat both (5.5), Minus .1 from ave. if VC wins
River Valley over Northwest (4.5); If NW wins (0), Miinus .45 from ave. if NW wins

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#6 Logan Elm (Projected 8-2) L1/10 + L2/10= 41/10 + 214.5/10=25.55 Projected Average (Approx. 21.95 if Ham Twnsp beats LE in week 10)

Week 1-9 L1=35, L2=169.5
Week 10 L1=6 beat Hamilton Township (6-3) & gained L2=30 Minus 3.6 from ave. if HT wins

New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 15
Unioto over Zane Trace (0), if ZT wins (5) Add .5 to ave. if ZT wins
Westfall over Adena (4.5), if Adena wins (0) Minus .45 from ave. if Adena wins
Miami Trace over Washington CH (5.5); if Wash wins (0), Minus .55 from (.55) if Wash wins
Teays Valley over Bloom Carroll; LE beat both (5), if BC wins (6) Add .1 to ave. if BC wins
Liberty Union over Fairfield Union (0), if FU wins (4.5), Add .45 from ave. if FU wins
Amanda Clearcreek over Circleville (0), if Cir wins (5), Add .5 to ave. if Cir wins

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#7 DeSales (Projected 9-1) L1/10 + L2/9.7= 41/10 +163 /9.7=20.90412 Projected Average

Week 1-9 L1= 37, L2= 126 (assuming Buchtel over North on 10/25/14)
Week 10 L1=4 beat Linsly (4-3) & gained L2= 16 Minus 2.04948 from ave. if Linsly wins

New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 21
Bishop Fenwick over Chaminade Julienne (0); if CJ wins (5), Add .51546 to ave. if CJ wins
Mount Vernon over New Albany (0); if NA wins (6), Add .61856 to ave. if NA wins
Buchtel over Kenmore (5.5); if Kenmore wins (0) Minus .567010 from ave. if Kenmore wins
Warrensville Heights over Lutheran East (3.5); if LE wins (0) Minus .36082 from ave. if LE wins
St. Charles over Marion Harding (6); if MH wins (0) Minus .61856 from ave. if MH wins
Centennel over Whetstone (6); if Whet wins (0) Minus .61856 from ave. if Whet wins
Winton Woods over Watterson (0), if Watterson wins (6) Add .61856 to ave. if Watterson wins

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#8 Chillicothe (Projected 7-3) L1/10 + L2/10= 36.5/10 + 144.5/10=18.1 Projected Average (Approx. 15.4 if Wooster beats WH in week 9)

Week 1-9 L1=31 , L2=90
Week 10 L1=5.5 beat Wilmington (7-2) & gained L2= 38.5 Minus 4.4 from ave. if Wilmington wins

New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 16
Walnut Ridge over Independence (5.5), if Ind wins (0), Minus .55 from ave. if Ind wins
Miami Trace over Washington (5.5); Chilli beat both, if Wash wins (5), Minus .05 from ave. if Wash wins
Hillsboro over McClain (5); Chilli beat both, if McC wins (5.5), Add .05 to ave. if McC wins
Massie over East Clinton (0); if EC wins (5), Add .5 to ave. if EC wins

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#9 New Philadelphia (Projected 7-3) L1/10 + L2/10= 39/10 + 141/10=18 Projected Average (Approx. 22.4 if NP beats Dover in week 10)

Week 1-9 L1=39, L2=119.5
Week 10 L1=0 Lose to Dover (6-2). Dover has L2=38.5 Add 4.4 to ave. if NP wins

New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 21.5
West Holmes over Clearfork (5), if CF wins (0) Minus .5 from ave. if CF wins
Niles McKinley over Youngstown East (0), if YE wins (5.5) Add .55 to ave. if YE wins
Northwest over Barberton (6), if Bar wins (0) Minus .6 from ave. if Bar wins
Maysville over Claymont (0), if CL wins (5) Add .5 to ave. if CL wins
Zanesville over Marietta; NP beat both (5.5), if Marietta wins (6) Add .5 to ave. if Marietta wins
Cambridge over Meadowbrook (5), if Meadowbrook wins (0) Minus .5 from ave. if Meadowbrook wins

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#10 Big Walnut (Projected 7-3) L1/10 + L2/9.9= 42.5/10 + 135/9.9=17.88636 Projected Average

Week 1-9 L1= 36.5, L2= 123.5
Week 10 L1=6 beat Franklin Heights (1-8 ) & gained L2= 5.5 Minus 1.15556 from ave. if FH wins

New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 6
Madison Comprehensive over Mansfield (0), if Man wins (5.5), Add .55556 to ave. if Man wins
Dublin Scioto over Canal Winchester (0), if CW wins (6), Add .60606 to ave. if CW wins
Olentangy over Hayes (0); if Hayes wins (6), Add .60606 to ave. if Hayes wins
Mount Vernon vs. New Albany (6); Big Walnut beat both
Kilbourne over Orange (0); if Orange wins (6), Add .60606 to ave. if Orange wins
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  #2  
Old 10-27-14, 08:06 PM
teach1coach2 teach1coach2 is offline
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Join Date: 10-22-07
Location: Muskingum County
Posts: 428
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A couple FYIs or warnings about DeSales harbin numbers.

DeSales current L2 divisor is 99, because 8 of their opponents so far are playing 10 game regular season schedules and 1 is playing 9. Their week 10 opponent is Linsly who has 8 games that count toward harbin L2 points (played a club team and play a WV game the week after week 10 in OH). When the OHSAA releases numbers, DeSales will likely be 16.4273 (8th) because OHSAA is using 99 as the divisor since DeSales has not yet played Linsly. Joe Eitel uses the divisor of 97 now, which makes his numbers more accurate and realistic (barring the cancellation of the game against Linsly). Joe has DeSales at 16.8384 (7th) which is more correct than OHSAA in my opinion.

DeSales will likely show up in 8th or 9th place early, early Saturday morning when Joe Eitel has all the Friday games in. Add 2.0495 since DeSales will beat Linsly (WV). That will tell you where they will finish and accurately show the teams playing in the #1-#8 game and the #2-#7 game.
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  #3  
Old 10-28-14, 07:26 PM
teach1coach2 teach1coach2 is offline
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Join Date: 10-22-07
Location: Muskingum County
Posts: 428
teach1coach2 is on a distinguished road
Region 9 L1 and L2 games that are not on Friday night.

Canada: St. Joan of Arc (D2) at Lorne Park on Wednesday. Dover beat Lorne Park and Dover's harbin average would increase .60606 if Lorne Park wins. Dover could move into 2nd in the region by Thursday morning.

Granville at Licking Valley on Thurs. A win might jump Granville to #1 or #2 in region temporarily. You can watch the game online at http://www.cwcolumbus.com/newsroom/sports/tnl/
Click on TNL Live.

Saturday:
L1 Games for Region 9
DeSales at Linsly WV (D6 with 4 wins). A win increases DeSales harbin average by 2.0495

L2 Games for Region 9
Hughes (D3) at Portsmouth. Jackson beat Portsmouth so a Portsmouth win increases Jackson's harbin average .56122

Utica (D4) at Newark Catholic (D6). Granville beat both. Utica win increases harbin average by .4 and Newark Catholic win increases Granville's average by .5

Buchtel at Kenmore (D3). DeSales beat Buchtel. Buchtel win increases average for DeSales by .56701

Warrensville Heights at Lutheran East (D7). DeSales beat Warrenville Heights. Warrensville win increases average for DeSales by .36082

So after all the Friday night games are in Joe Eitel dot com, you have to consider if the Saturday games move Jackson and Granville up, ..obviously DeSales is going to move up after their Saturday night win.
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