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  #61  
Old 09-22-18, 02:46 PM
kingpin2010 kingpin2010 is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by beaker View Post
Lol...my questions are rhetorical. At times in the past had multiple teams from this area go deep in the playoffs. In recent past it's only been Mooney, Ursuline, Warren JFK. Those schools are shadows of what they were just a few years ago. They may never get it back and public schools from this area. South Range last year, Poland used to be great...Warren Harding...not anymore..oh the glory days. Just memories now
It is what it is. I used to get wrapped up about this and wonder why, but at this point I just enjoy the seasons for what they are. Last night was an awesome game between McDonald and Springfield, even if they are both only the 10th and 11th best D6 teams. We still got a big game against Reserve to finally get payback against them hopefully. Then if the blue devils are still standing week 11 then let the chips fall as they may in November, whether they lose week 11, 13 or make a magical run deeper.
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  #62  
Old 09-22-18, 03:39 PM
beaker beaker is offline
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Yep...it will be fun to see what happens. It's a little anti climatic though, if I used the phrase correctly, when year after year the same 3 teams have a legit shot. Kirtland, Coldwater, Marion Local. Championship game has gotten boring. That said, I can't wait to see what happens in the regional championship between McDonald and Kirtland. Bring on the Hornets!
BOOM!!!
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  #63  
Old 09-22-18, 04:31 PM
kingpin2010 kingpin2010 is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FirestoneFan View Post
Lots of tough games next week.

Crestwood @ Mogadore (I'll probably be at this one).
Cuyahoga Hts @ Kirtland
Norwayne @ Hillsdale
Lutheran W @ Columbia
LaBrae @ Liberty
As you said, big games this week. The most dire of them is for Liberty, who absolutely needs a win to have a legit shot to make it, even if they beat Girard next week.

The others are mainly for seeding purposes:
Norwayne-Beat Hillsdale and likely hosting. A loss and they’re going to be on the road week 11.

Columbia- Same situation as Norwayne, though with a tough Clearview team coming up next week a Raiders loss this week and they’ll be playing for their playoff lives next week.

Southern- If they beat EP they should be punching their playoff ticket as I don’t see them going worse than 8-2. 9-1 and they’ll have a great shot at hosting

I think both Kirtland and Mogadore are strong favorites to win their games, but even with a loss both will still be solidly in position to grab a top 4 seed.

A lot that will be determined is whether a 9-1 Rootstown or a 10-0 McDonald/WR will have a shot at hosting.
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  #64  
Old 09-22-18, 05:15 PM
pcbuck pcbuck is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kingpin2010 View Post
As you said, big games this week. The most dire of them is for Liberty, who absolutely needs a win to have a legit shot to make it, even if they beat Girard next week.

The others are mainly for seeding purposes:
Norwayne-Beat Hillsdale and likely hosting. A loss and they’re going to be on the road week 11.

Columbia- Same situation as Norwayne, though with a tough Clearview team coming up next week a Raiders loss this week and they’ll be playing for their playoff lives next week.

Southern- If they beat EP they should be punching their playoff ticket as I don’t see them going worse than 8-2. 9-1 and they’ll have a great shot at hosting

I think both Kirtland and Mogadore are strong favorites to win their games, but even with a loss both will still be solidly in position to grab a top 4 seed.

A lot that will be determined is whether a 9-1 Rootstown or a 10-0 McDonald/WR will have a shot at hosting.

I don't think McDonald or WR will host if they go 10-0. Too many upsets have to occur for that to happen.

My feeling is that Rootstown will host, but if they go 9-1 they won't host unless they lose to someone other than Mogadore.
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  #65  
Old 09-23-18, 03:06 PM
FirestoneFan FirestoneFan is offline
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Kirtland
Mogadore
McDonald
Norwayne
Springfield
Rootstown
Southern
Columbia
Western Reserve
Garaway
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  #66  
Old 09-23-18, 05:14 PM
kingpin2010 kingpin2010 is online now
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Projection after week 5:

1. Mogadore- 9-1, 27.5 (23.5 with L to Rootstown and still hosting)
2. Kirtland- 10-0, 24.6
3. Southern- 9-1, 20.3 loss to Columbiana (22.7 at 10-0, 17.6 at 8-2)
4. Norwayne- 9-1, 20.2 (16.9 with L this week)

5. Rootstown- 9-1, 19.3 (23.2 and hosting with W over Moggy)
6. McDonald- 10-0, 18.9 (15.1 with L to WR and likely out)
7. Springfield- 9-1, 17.3 (out at 8-2)
8. Columbia Station- 7-3, 16.5 loss to Clearview (20.3 and bubble hosting at 8-2)

9. Steubenville Catholic Central- 7-3, 15.6 losses to WCC and Fort Frye (18.7 and in at 8-2)
10. Garaway- 8-2, 13.4 losses to Ridgewood and IV (17.3 and likely in at 9-1)
11. Western Reserve- 8-2, 11.5 losses to Springfield and McDonald (15.1 at 9-1, 19.0 at 10-0)
12. Liberty- 7-3, 10.8 losses to Labrae and Girard (need 9-1 to get in which gets them 18.5)

Those are right now the 12 teams in contention, and could be trimmed to 11 with a liberty loss this week.

Note: If Columbiana were to run the table to get to 7-3 they’ll finish at 15.3 and have an outside shot of getting in. As of now I don’t think they’re in contention, but they could be added later

Last edited by kingpin2010; 09-23-18 at 05:27 PM.
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  #67  
Old 09-23-18, 05:26 PM
kingpin2010 kingpin2010 is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pcbuck View Post
I don't think McDonald or WR will host if they go 10-0. Too many upsets have to occur for that to happen.

My feeling is that Rootstown will host, but if they go 9-1 they won't host unless they lose to someone other than Mogadore.
They don’t really need upsets to happen, just a good amount of toss-up games to go their way. F50 says about 22% chance to host at 10-0 and that seems about right. Columbiana beating Southern would be a huge thing they’d need to go their way.
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  #68  
Old 09-23-18, 06:24 PM
wildcat71 wildcat71 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kingpin2010 View Post
Projection after week 5:

1. Mogadore- 9-1, 27.5 (23.5 with L to Rootstown and still hosting)
2. Kirtland- 10-0, 24.6
3. Southern- 9-1, 20.3 loss to Columbiana (22.7 at 10-0, 17.6 at 8-2)
4. Norwayne- 9-1, 20.2 (16.9 with L this week)

5. Rootstown- 9-1, 19.3 (23.2 and hosting with W over Moggy)
6. McDonald- 10-0, 18.9 (15.1 with L to WR and likely out)
7. Springfield- 9-1, 17.3 (out at 8-2)
8. Columbia Station- 7-3, 16.5 loss to Clearview (20.3 and bubble hosting at 8-2)

9. Steubenville Catholic Central- 7-3, 15.6 losses to WCC and Fort Frye (18.7 and in at 8-2)
10. Garaway- 8-2, 13.4 losses to Ridgewood and IV (17.3 and likely in at 9-1)
11. Western Reserve- 8-2, 11.5 losses to Springfield and McDonald (15.1 at 9-1, 19.0 at 10-0)
12. Liberty- 7-3, 10.8 losses to Labrae and Girard (need 9-1 to get in which gets them 18.5)

Those are right now the 12 teams in contention, and could be trimmed to 11 with a liberty loss this week.

Note: If Columbiana were to run the table to get to 7-3 they’ll finish at 15.3 and have an outside shot of getting in. As of now I don’t think they’re in contention, but they could be added later
Remember Mogadore already has 1 loss. They can only finish 9-1 if they win out. They lost week 3 to Linsly WVa..
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  #69  
Old 09-23-18, 06:43 PM
kingpin2010 kingpin2010 is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wildcat71 View Post
Remember Mogadore already has 1 loss. They can only finish 9-1 if they win out. They lost week 3 to Linsly WVa..
I do know this, I think the Cats win out.
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  #70  
Old 09-23-18, 08:04 PM
pcbuck pcbuck is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kingpin2010 View Post
They don’t really need upsets to happen, just a good amount of toss-up games to go their way. F50 says about 22% chance to host at 10-0 and that seems about right. Columbiana beating Southern would be a huge thing they’d need to go their way.
I think it would take an upset for an undefeated MVAC team to host. Here’s why:
Assuming Kirtland and Mogadore don’t lose 2 games, there’s only 2 more home spots left. According to F50 Norwayne is a big favorite in all their games (>80%). A loss by them would be an upset. That’s the 3rd spot.
That leaves Rootstown. I personally think they beat Mogadore but even if they don’t, according to F50 they are 80% to win each of their games except Crestwood (70%). Seeing both teams play, a win by Crestwood would be a big upset. That’s the 4th spot.
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  #71  
Old 09-23-18, 08:20 PM
kingpin2010 kingpin2010 is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pcbuck View Post
I think it would take an upset for an undefeated MVAC team to host. Here’s why:
Assuming Kirtland and Mogadore don’t lose 2 games, there’s only 2 more home spots left. According to F50 Norwayne is a big favorite in all their games (>80%). A loss by them would be an upset. That’s the 3rd spot.
That leaves Rootstown. I personally think they beat Mogadore but even if they don’t, according to F50 they are 80% to win each of their games except Crestwood (70%). Seeing both teams play, a win by Crestwood would be a big upset. That’s the 4th spot.
I agree the first 3 spots are likely those 3 you mentioned, as long as Norwayne wins this week.

It’s the 4th spot that is up for grabs. Right now a 9-1 Rootstown with a loss to Moggy is projected .4 higher than a 10-0 McDonald, that is a difference of only 1 L2 game. I agree that Rootstown finishes 9-1, but a 10-0 McDonald or Reserve could easily be higher than them with just a tiny L2 help (like Columbiana beating Southern). Which brings up Southern, as they need to probably drop 2 games for either a 10-0 MVAC or 9-1 Rootstown to get the 4 seed. I think them vs united and Columbiana are toss-ups and EP could upset them.

Also teams like Columbia, Garaway, and SCC could spoil the party also by winning out, though I don’t think any will (Columbia has the best shot of the 3).

So basically, a quick check list for a 10-0 MVAC to host would be:
-Columbia, Garaway, SCC all losing at least 1 game
-Southern losing to Columbiana and either United or EP
-Rootstown losing to Mogadore
-A bonus would be Hillsdale beating Norwayne but I don’t see that happening.

So no real upsets need to happen, or at least big upsets. Just a lot of close calls that would need to go their way.
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  #72  
Old 09-23-18, 08:55 PM
pcbuck pcbuck is offline
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KP, you make some great points but 22% to host at 10-0 doesn’t seem too high.
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  #73  
Old 09-23-18, 09:09 PM
pirateflash07 pirateflash07 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kingpin2010 View Post
i agree the first 3 spots are likely those 3 you mentioned, as long as norwayne wins this week.

It’s the 4th spot that is up for grabs. Right now a 9-1 rootstown with a loss to moggy is projected .4 higher than a 10-0 mcdonald, that is a difference of only 1 l2 game. I agree that rootstown finishes 9-1, but a 10-0 mcdonald or reserve could easily be higher than them with just a tiny l2 help (like columbiana beating southern). Which brings up southern, as they need to probably drop 2 games for either a 10-0 mvac or 9-1 rootstown to get the 4 seed. I think them vs united and columbiana are toss-ups and ep could upset them.

Also teams like columbia, garaway, and scc could spoil the party also by winning out, though i don’t think any will (columbia has the best shot of the 3).

So basically, a quick check list for a 10-0 mvac to host would be:
-columbia, garaway, scc all losing at least 1 game
-southern losing to columbiana and either united or ep
-rootstown losing to mogadore
-a bonus would be hillsdale beating norwayne but i don’t see that happening.

So no real upsets need to happen, or at least big upsets. Just a lot of close calls that would need to go their way.
i think garaway has a good shot at winning out, should beat ridgewood, remember last years 5-5 team almost beat i.v 13-7 i think was the score we shall see.
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  #74  
Old 09-23-18, 09:25 PM
m14brian m14brian is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by beaker View Post
Oh I remember the days when McDonald could compete with MAC schools. Playing very competitive state championship games. Of course lost both, but you went away knowing you had a chance...what happened? Now in the small divisions you have Kirtland and top MAC schools and the gap between them and everyone else is huge.

It wasn't such a huge gap years ago.

It's more than they just work harder..that could be true, but that completely over simplifies things...

MVAC league has McDonald, Berlin Center, Springfield all good teams, but close to Kirtlands level, no. The rest of the league...winless. they will only beat each other. Those schools will not get better in foreseeable future and it's not that they dont work hard..what is it? Bad coaching?...families leaving this area? ..No enthusiasm to play football? All of the above or even more factors maybe?

MAC schools have XBOX too....or do they????

McD had a massive talent pool between the years 1986 - 1995.
2 State runner-up and 3 regional champs.
It maybe my “old” attitude but I say we put way more work into football then. Weightlifting was year round and dam near the whole football team was on the track and field team to both lift weights and work on gettin faster. Who knows?
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  #75  
Old 09-24-18, 11:22 AM
beaker beaker is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by m14brian View Post
McD had a massive talent pool between the years 1986 - 1995.
2 State runner-up and 3 regional champs.
It maybe my “old” attitude but I say we put way more work into football then. Weightlifting was year round and dam near the whole football team was on the track and field team to both lift weights and work on gettin faster. Who knows?
That was a great run for the Devils..the 1988 team may have been the best but didn't make the playoffs even though they were undefeated. Only 4 teams from region made playoffs back then. Some big boys on that team.
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  #76  
Old 09-28-18, 09:12 PM
kingpin2010 kingpin2010 is online now
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Tonight was looking like it was going to really shake up the region with Mogadore and Norwayne down. The cats stormed back to win 27-10 and Norwayne was able to win on overtime 34-28.

Liberty was trounced by Labrae and we can cross them off the playoff hopeful list bringing it down to 11.

Everything else held to form mostly with Kirtland and Columbia getting nice wins
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  #77  
Old 09-28-18, 10:06 PM
Buckeye Elite Buckeye Elite is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kingpin2010 View Post
Tonight was looking like it was going to really shake up the region with Mogadore and Norwayne down. The cats stormed back to win 27-10 and Norwayne was able to win on overtime 34-28.

Liberty was trounced by Labrae and we can cross them off the playoff hopeful list bringing it down to 11.

Everything else held to form mostly with Kirtland and Columbia getting nice wins
Even if liberty beats Girard they can’t get in?
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  #78  
Old 09-28-18, 10:09 PM
kingpin2010 kingpin2010 is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Buckeye Elite View Post
Even if liberty beats Girard they can’t get in?
Extremely extremely unlikely. Girard would be their only win over a team with a winning record and their harbin will be below 15, in a region as stacked as this it would require a ton of upsets.
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  #79  
Old 09-29-18, 07:39 AM
jmog jmog is offline
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Two games in a row that Mogadore was down at least 2 scores early and had to come back to win.

That won’t work in week 10 or if they make it to Kirtland in the playoffs.
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  #80  
Old 09-29-18, 11:19 AM
kingpin2010 kingpin2010 is online now
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After being the biggest winner last week, McDonald is one of the biggest losers this week with a very realistic chance to be traveling to Kirtland week 11 at 10-0, and a possible scenario to be the 2nd team ever to not be playing week 11 after going 10-0 since the expansion to 8

Projections after week 6:

1: Mogadore 9-1, 28.3 (24.2 with L to Rootstown)
2: Kirtland 10-0, 25.9
3: Norwayne 9-1, 20.8
4: Southern 9-1, 19.7 L to Columbiana (22.2 if 10-0 and likely hosting)
5: Rootstown 9-1, 19.6 L to Mogadore (23.5 if 10-0 and 3 seed)
6: McDonald 10-0, 19.1 (15 and likely out at 9-1)
7: Columbia 7-3, 17.3 L to Clearview (21.2 if 8-2 and good chance at hosting)
8: Springfield 9-1, 16.8 (out with loss this week)

9: Steubenville Catholic Central 7-3, 16.3 L to WCC and Fort Frye (19’s and in at 8-2, 22.5 and likely hosting at 9-1)
10: Garaway 8-2, 13.65 L to Ridgewood and IV (17.8 at 9-1, 22.1 at 10-0)
11: Western Reserve 8-2, 11.95 L to Springfield and McDonald (15.5 at 9-1, 19.3 at 10-0)

Last edited by kingpin2010; 10-03-18 at 04:19 PM.
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  #81  
Old 09-29-18, 11:36 AM
kingpin2010 kingpin2010 is online now
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We have some monster games coming up in week 7:

Springfield at Western Reserve: Springfield is out of contention with a loss here, Western Reserve would have only a slim chance remaining with a loss. Essentially an elimination game.

Columbia at Clearview: A lot of eyes will be on this one, the end result will have a big effect on a bunch of the teams and seedings.

Ridgewood at Garaway: Garaway needs to win one of the next 2 to get in, but it won’t be easy. Ridgewood is coming off a huge win over Indian Valley. A loss for the Pirates would put them in an absolute must win position next week at IV.

Southern at United: Will be Southerns 2nd toughest league game and should be a tough battle for them.

Wheeling Central Catholic at Steubenville Catholic Central: WCC has been impressive so far so it’ll be a tough game for a SCC that struggled with Barnesville on Friday. A lot of teams will be looking for this score as well, a SCC win essentially puts them in the playoff field.

Last edited by kingpin2010; 09-29-18 at 01:56 PM.
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  #82  
Old 09-29-18, 12:55 PM
bulldog1974 bulldog1974 is offline
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Exclamation

Quote:
Originally Posted by kingpin2010 View Post
We have some monster games coming up in week 7:



Southern at United: Will be Southerns 2nd toughest league game and should be a tough battle for them.
Southern will run the EOAC table, but they are not at the level to go more than two games into the playoffs. They have many inconsistencies that showed last evening. That big line is not quick, they are good, but did not get the offensive "push" a line that size should get, in the trenches they were equal to EP's big line. Sloan is quick, but was sacked several times by EP, one was a fumble, but ruled an incomplete pass. He can run like crazy if in an open field.
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  #83  
Old 10-01-18, 07:48 AM
guyinahoodie guyinahoodie is offline
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Drew Pasteur has McDonald finishing at 10-0, and both Springfield and Western Reserve finishing 9-1 on the projections page. All 3 of these things can't happen in the MVAC.

McDonald has already beaten Springfield.
If they also beat Reserve, they finish at 10-0.
This means Reserve has to beat Springfield to finish 9-1.
If so, Springfield finishes 8-2.
If Springfield beats WR, they finish 9-1, and WR finishes 8-2 if McDonald goes 10-0.

No realistic scenario allows McDonald to go 10-0, and both WR and Springfield to be 9-1.
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  #84  
Old 10-01-18, 09:36 AM
pcbuck pcbuck is offline
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Kirtland is still the favorite but there are many solid contenders in this region.
After week 6 this region has the most undefeated teams (6) out of all the 28 regions. It sad that McDonald likely won’t get a home game even if they run the table.
From a computer points standpoint this is more like a Division 4 region.
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  #85  
Old 10-01-18, 10:49 AM
kingpin2010 kingpin2010 is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by guyinahoodie View Post
Drew Pasteur has McDonald finishing at 10-0, and both Springfield and Western Reserve finishing 9-1 on the projections page. All 3 of these things can't happen in the MVAC.

McDonald has already beaten Springfield.
If they also beat Reserve, they finish at 10-0.
This means Reserve has to beat Springfield to finish 9-1.
If so, Springfield finishes 8-2.
If Springfield beats WR, they finish 9-1, and WR finishes 8-2 if McDonald goes 10-0.

No realistic scenario allows McDonald to go 10-0, and both WR and Springfield to be 9-1.
That’s just a quirk to his system that will be worked out after this week with the result of the Springfield/Reserve game. It just takes the most likely scenario for each individual team in the projections. So since McDonald and Springfield are both rated higher than WR they are projected to win out. But for WR even though they are slight underdogs in both games their most likely scenario is winning 1 of them.

Last edited by kingpin2010; 10-01-18 at 11:17 AM.
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  #86  
Old 10-01-18, 10:53 AM
kingpin2010 kingpin2010 is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pcbuck View Post
Kirtland is still the favorite but there are many solid contenders in this region.
After week 6 this region has the most undefeated teams (6) out of all the 28 regions. It sad that McDonald likely won’t get a home game even if they run the table.
From a computer points standpoint this is more like a Division 4 region.
McDonald has just gotten extremely unlucky. It’s just like 2014 when they went 10-0 and had to play on the road since the region had 5 undefeated teams. That year they had a harbin total that would’ve got them a home game in 3/4 of the D2 regions but were on the road in D6.
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  #87  
Old 10-01-18, 11:15 AM
guyinahoodie guyinahoodie is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kingpin2010 View Post
That’s just a quirk to his system that will be worked out after this week with the result of the Springfield/Reserve game. It just takes the most likely scenario for each individual team in the projections. So since McDonald and Springfield are both rated higher than WR they are projected to win out. But for WR even though they are slight underdogs in both games they’re most likely scenario is winning 1 of them.
Makes sense. I'm new to this Harbin thing, so I'm learning!
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  #88  
Old 10-01-18, 11:45 AM
FirestoneFan FirestoneFan is offline
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Kirtland
Mogadore
Norwayne
Rootstown
McDonald
Springfield
Columbia
Southern
Garaway
Steubenville CC
also Western Reserve, Liberty, Columbiana

Not a playoff list but where I see the team right now. Mogadore and Rootstown have to play tough Valley Christian and Garrettsville before week 10 when they will meet!!
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  #89  
Old 10-05-18, 12:37 PM
kingpin2010 kingpin2010 is online now
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Huge night in the region, and I’d say possibly the biggest single week as it pertains to shaping the playoff picture all season. Good luck to all and it’ll be fun to sort through the results late tonight/early tomorrow.
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  #90  
Old 10-05-18, 07:00 PM
kingpin2010 kingpin2010 is online now
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Scores of the big games so far:
Springfield 10
Western Reserve 7

Columbia 15
Clearview 12

Garaway 13
Ridgewood 0

Wheeling CC 17
Steubenville CC 0
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