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Old 10-21-17, 09:16 PM
teach1coach2 teach1coach2 is offline
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Region 11 Extreme Analysis

Most of this post is the MATH used to determine the Harbin points average. If you disagree with a “pick” I made as to who would win, I put how that affects the average and you can add or subtract as needed to see how it affects things overall [set up to be easy for non-Math people to use ]. Normally, I have the better record winning unless common opponents or recent results led me to believe otherwise.

Below is an extreme mathematical analysis of the 11 teams with the best chance to make the playoffs in Region 11. Based on what has happened weeks 1-9 and what will likely happen week 10 with “favorites” in my mind winning, here would be the rankings:

I numbered 1-8 what I think will happen.

1. Bellefontaine 29.35 (wins week 10)
Independence 26.85 (wins week 10)
Bellefontaine 25.75 (loses week 10)
2. Hartley 24.4 (wins week 10)
3. Marion Franklin 23.979 (wins week 10)
4. Tri-Valley 23.9 (wins week 10)
5. Jackson 23.25 (wins week 10)
New Philadelphia 23.15 (wins week 10)
6. Independence 21.307 (loses week 10)
Tri-Valley 20.05 (loses week 10)
7. Dover 19.8 (wins week 10)
8. New Philadelphia 19.25 (loses week 10)
Athens 19.15 (wins week 10)
Granville 19.148 (wins week 10)
Jackson 18.75 (loses week 10)
Maysville 17.75 (wins week 10)



Prediction as of 10/21/17
#1 Bellefontaine hosts #8 New Philadelphia
#2 Hartley hosts #7 Dover
#3 Marion Franklin hosts #6 Independence
#4 Tri-Valley hosts #5 Jackson
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

#1 Bellefontaine (Projected 9-1) L1/10 + L2/10= 47/10 + 246.5/10= 29.35 Projected Average (Approx. 25.75 if Kenton Ridge beats them in week 10)

Week 1-9 L1=42, L2=194
Week 10 L1=5 beat Kenton Ridge (6-3) & gained L2=31 Minus 3.6 from ave. if KR wins

New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 21.5
D4 St. Marys over D3 Wapakoneta (0), if Wa wins (5) Add .5 to ave. if Wa wins
D2 Troy over D3 Piqua (5.5), if Pi wins (0) Minus .55 from ave. if Pi wins
D4 Graham/D4 Jonathan Alder. They beat both (5).
D5 Indian Lake over D4 Ben Logan. They beat both (5). Minus .05 if BL wins
D4 Shawnee over D2 Tecumseh. They beat both (6). Minus .1 if Te wins
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

#2 Independence (Projected 8-1) L1/9 + L2/8.8= 43.5/10 + 198/8.8 = 26.85 Projected Average (Approx. 21.307 if Walnut Ridge beats them in week 10)

Week 1-9 L1= 37.5, L2= 138.5
Week 10 L1=6 beat Walnut Ridge (8-0) & gained L2= 43.5 Minus 5.543 from ave. if FH wins

New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 16
D5 Johnstown over D5 Heath (4.5), if Hea wins (4.5), Minus .511 from ave. if Hea wins
D3 Hartley over D3 St. Charles (0), if StC wins (5.5), Add .625 to ave. if StC wins
D2 Briggs/D2 West (6). They beat both.
D3 Eastmoor over D6 Africentric (0); if Af wins (4), Add .455 to ave if Af wins
D3 Marion Franklin over D3 South (5.5); if So wins (0), Minus .625 from ave if So wins
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

#3 Hartley (Projected 9-1) L1/10 + L2/10= 51.5/10 +192.5/10 = 24.4 Projected Average

Week 1-9 L1= 45.5, L2= 176.5
Week 10 L1=6 beat St. Charles (1-8) & gained L2= 5.5

New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 10.5
D1 Marysville over D1 Central Crossing (0); if CC wins (6.5), Add .65 to ave. if CC wins
D1 Lorain over D3 Shaw (0); if Shaw wins (6.5), Add .65 to ave. if Shaw wins
D3 Jackson over D2 Chillicothe (0); if Chilli wins (5.5), Add .55 to ave. if Chilli wins
D1 Jerome over D2 Kilbourne (0); if Kil wins (6.5), Add .65 to ave. if Kil wins
D3 DeSales/D3 Watterson (5.5). They beat both.
D5 Ready over D4 Bexley (5); if Bex wins (0), Minus .5 from aver if Bex wins
D1 Jackson over D2 Hoover (0); if Hoo wins (6.5), Add .65 to ave. if Hoo wins
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

#4 Marion Franklin (Projected 8-2) L1/10 + L2/9.6= 45/10 + 187/9.6 = 23.979 Projected Average

Week 1-9 L1=39.5 , L2=159
Week 10 L1=5.5 beat South (3-5) & gained L2= 12.5

New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 15.5
D1 Marysville over D1 Central Crossing (0); if CC wins (6.5), Add .677 to ave. if CC wins
D3 Beechcroft over D2 Northland (5.5); if Nor wins (0), Minus .573 to ave. if Nor wins
D3 Jackson over D2 Chillicothe (0); if Chilli wins (5.5), Add .573 to ave. if Chilli wins
D3 Eastmoor over D6 Africentric (4). They beat both. Add .156 if Af wins
D2 Briggs/D2 West (6). They beat both.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

#5 Tri-Valley (Projected 9-1) L1/10 + L2/10= 45/10 + 194/10=23.9 Projected Ave. (Approx. 20.05 if Maysville beats them in week 10)

Week 1-9 L1= 39.5, L2= 142.5
Week 10 L1=5.5 beat Maysville (7-2) & gained L2= 32 Minus 3.75 from ave. if Ma wins

New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 19.5
D3 Zanesville over D3 Marietta (5.5), if Mar wins (0); Minus .55 from ave. if Mar wins
D3 Sheridan over D4 Morgan; TV beat both (5), if Mo wins (5.5) Add .05 to ave. if Mo wins
D4 John Glenn over D6 Crooksville; TV beat both (4), if Cr wins (5) Add .1 to ave. if Cr wins
D4 Philo/D4 New Lex. They beat both (5).
D7 Monroe Central over D5 West M (0); if WM wins (3.5) Add .35 to ave. if WM wins

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

#6 Jackson (Projected 9-1) L1/10 + L2/10= 47.5/10 + 185/10 = 23.25 Projected Average (Approx. 18.75 if Chillicothe beats them in week 10)

Week 1-9 L1= 41.5, L2= 126
Week 10 L1=6 beat Chillicothe (7-2) & gained L2= 39 Minus 4.5 from ave. if Chilli wins

New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 24
D5 Wellston over D4 Vinton County (5); if VC wins (0), Minus .5 from ave. if VC wins
D5 Liberty Union over D4 Fairfield Union (0); if FU wins (4.5), Add .45 to ave. if FU wins
D4 Gallia Academy over D5 South Point (4.5), if SP wins (0), Minus .45 from ave. if SP wins
D4 Batavia over D2 Western Brown (0); if WB wins (5), Add .5 to ave. if WB wins
D4 Washington over D3 Miami Trace (5.5); They beat both. Minus .5 if MT wins
D3 Hillsboro over D4 McClain (5); They beat both. Add .5 if Mc wins
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

#7 Dover (Projected 7-3) L1/10 + L2/10= 39/10 + 159/10 = 19.8 Projected Average

Week 1-9 L1=33.5 , L2=94
Week 10 L1=5.5 beat New Philadelphia (8-1) & gained L2= 42 Minus 4.75 from ave. if NP wins

New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 23
D3 JFK over D1 John Marshall (6.5); if JM wins (0), Minus .65 from ave. if JM wins
D2 Lake over D2 Green (6); if Gr wins (0), Minus .6 from ave. if Gr wins
D3 Zanesville/ D3 Marietta (5.5). They beat both.
D4 Cambridge over D4 Meadowbrook (5), if Mea wins (0) Minus .5 from ave. if Mea wins
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

#8 New Philadelphia (Projected 8-2) L1/10 + L2/10= 42/10 + 150.5/10 = 19.25 Projected Average (Approx. 23.15 if NP beats Dover in week 10)

Week 1-9 L1=42, L2=132.5
Week 10 L1=0 Lose to Dover (6-3). Dover has L2=33.5 Add 3.9 to ave. if NP wins

New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 18
D4 Indian Valley over D4 Claymont (0), if Cl wins (5) Add .5 to ave. if CF wins
D2 Mount Vernon over D3 West Holmes (0); if WH wins (6), Add .6 to ave. if WH wins
D4 Northwest over D6 Loudenville (4); if Lou wins (0), Minus .4 from ave. if Lou wins
D3 Hartley over D2 St. Charles (0); if StC wins (5.5), Add .55 to ave. if StC wins
D5 CCC over D7 Farrell PA (3.5); if Far wins (0), Minus .35 from ave. if Far wins
D3 Zanesville/ D3 Marietta (5.5). They beat both.
D4 Cambridge over D4 Meadowbrook (5), if Mea wins (0) Minus .5 from ave. if Mea wins

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

#9 Granville (Projected 8-1) L1/10 + L2/9.9= 43.5/10 + 146.5/9.9=19.148 Projected Average
Week 1-9 L1=37.5, L2=120.5
Week 10 L1=6 Watkins Memorial beat (2-7) gained L2=11 Minus 1.711 if WM wins

New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 15.5
D3 Hamilton Township over D4 Circleville (5); if Cir wins (0), Minus .505 if Cir wins
D3 Zanesville over D3 Marietta (5.5), if Mar wins (0); Minus .556 from ave. if Mar wins
D3 Beechcroft over D2 Northland (0), if Nor wins (5.5); Add .556 to ave. if Nor wins
D4 Lakewood/D4 Utica (5). They beat both.
D6 Newark Catholic over D5 Northridge (0), if Northridge wins (4); Add .404 to ave. if Northridge wins
D4 Licking Valley over D2 Licking Heights (0), if LH wins (5) Add .505 to ave. if LH wins
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

#10 Athens (Projected 9-1) L1/10 + L2/10=45/10 + 146.5/10 = 19.15 Projected Average

Week 1-9 L1=41 , L2=91
Week 10 L1=4 beat NelsonvilleYork (9-0) & gained L2=40.5

New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 15

D2 Logan over D3 Warren Local (5.5); if WL wins (6),Add ..05 to ave. if WL wins. Athens beat both.
D3 Granville over D3 Watkins Memorial (0); if WM wins (5.5), Add .55 if WM wins.
D4 Meigs over D5 Alexander (4.5); if Al wins (5), Minus .05 from ave. if Meigs wins. Athens beat both.
D5 Wellston over D4 Vinton County (5); if VC wins (4.5), Minus .05 from ave. if VC wins. Athens beat both.
D4 Waverly over D5 River Valley (0) ; If RV wins (5), Add .5 to ave. if RV wins
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

#11 Maysville (Projected 8-2) L1/10 + L2/10= 37.5/10 + 139.5/10 = 17.7 Projected Ave. (Beats Tri-Valley)

Week 1-9 L1= 32, L2= 85.5
Week 10 L1=5.5 beat Tri-Valley (8-1) & gained L2= 39.5

New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 14.5
D5 Coshocton over D4 RiverView (5), if RV wins (0), Minus ,5 if RV wins
D6 Newark Catholic over D5 Northridge (4.5), if Nor wins (0); Minus .45 from ave. if Nor wins
D3 Sheridan over D4 Morgan (0), if Mo wins (5.5) Add .55 to ave. if Mo wins
D4 John Glenn over D6 Crooksville (0), if Cr wins (5) Add .5 to ave. if Cr wins
D4 Philo/D4 New Lex. They beat both (5).
D7 Monroe Central over D5 West M (0); if WM wins (3.5) Add .35 to ave. if WM wins

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

According to Joe Eitel, Max win out for the following is:
Beechcroft 17.2687
Buckeye Valley 17.6399
DeSales 17.6944
Eastmoor 18.0423
They may not be mathematically eliminated, but they aren’t going to make the top 8.

Last edited by teach1coach2; 10-22-17 at 02:34 PM.
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  #2  
Old 10-22-17, 07:26 AM
doverbuck doverbuck is offline
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Thanks,I think-going to Hartley might make for a short playoff run or maybe a great victory!
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Old 10-22-17, 11:14 PM
teach1coach2 teach1coach2 is offline
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ttt
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  #4  
Old 10-23-17, 05:37 AM
Journey Journey is offline
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Awesome work!
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Old 10-23-17, 08:01 AM
TriangleMan TriangleMan is offline
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Canton CC is not playing their scheduled week 10 game against Farrell (PA), who cancelled for the second consecutive year. Canton CC has picked up a week 10 game vs. Oil City (PA), but if it was not scheduled prior to 10/1 (likely) it would not count toward any computer points. Sorry for no possible additional L2 points from CC, but NP’s final L2 divisor should eventually be 99.

Last edited by TriangleMan; 10-23-17 at 02:05 PM.
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  #6  
Old 10-23-17, 08:20 AM
AHM AHM is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by doverbuck View Post
Thanks,I think-going to Hartley might make for a short playoff run or maybe a great victory!
I dont think Dover gets in with a win, it will be awful close. If they get in, I think they are at 8.
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Old 10-23-17, 09:36 AM
FootballFan1795 FootballFan1795 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TriangleMan View Post
Canton CC is not playing their scheduled week 10 game against Farrell (PA), who cancelled for the second consecutive year. Canton CC has picked up a week 10 game vs. Oil City (PA), but it was not scheduled prior to the 10/1 deadline to count toward computer points. Sorry for no possible additional L2 points from CC, but NP’s final L2 divisor should eventually be 99.
If you're saying that Phila's Projected Avg. should be 19.05, then, Phila wouldn't even get in to the top 8.
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Old 10-23-17, 09:44 AM
FootballFan1795 FootballFan1795 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AHM View Post
I dont think Dover gets in with a win, it will be awful close. If they get in, I think they are at 8.
Are you thinking that Lake will lose? Because, even if Lake loses (and assuming Dover wins), Dover could still get in to the top 8, with a 19.2 Projected Avg.
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Old 10-23-17, 01:19 PM
Hammerdrill Hammerdrill is offline
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I think Jackson loses to a solid Chillicothe team, so they would drop out, which would allow Dover in.
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Old 10-23-17, 02:23 PM
Central OH Football Central OH Football is offline
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A lot of scenarios are on the table for this Friday.. crazy to think the type of implications so many different teams will have on this region
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Old 10-23-17, 03:31 PM
Raider6309 Raider6309 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Central OH Football View Post
A lot of scenarios are on the table for this Friday.. crazy to think the type of implications so many different teams will have on this region
Yeah, the really crazy situation is Jackson losing to Chillicothe, Dover beating New Philia, and Athens beating Nelsonville-York. 5 teams all around 19 points battling for 3 spots
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Old 10-23-17, 03:39 PM
teach1coach2 teach1coach2 is offline
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Here is the revised projection if it is true that Canton CC will not have a game that counts week 10 and NP drops to L2 divisor of 99. If New Philly loses, that cancellation may drop them to 9 and out.



Most of this post is the MATH used to determine the Harbin points average. If you disagree with a “pick” I made as to who would win, I put how that affects the average and you can add or subtract as needed to see how it affects things overall [set up to be easy for non-Math people to use ]. Normally, I have the better record winning unless common opponents or recent results led me to believe otherwise.

Below is an extreme mathematical analysis of the 11 teams with the best chance to make the playoffs in Region 11. Based on what has happened weeks 1-9 and what will likely happen week 10 with “favorites” in my mind winning, here would be the rankings:

I numbered 1-8 what I think will happen.

1. Bellefontaine 29.35 (wins week 10)
Independence 26.85 (wins week 10)
Bellefontaine 25.75 (loses week 10)
2. Hartley 24.4 (wins week 10)
3. Marion Franklin 23.979 (wins week 10)
4. Tri-Valley 23.9 (wins week 10)
5. Jackson 23.25 (wins week 10)
New Philadelphia 22.982 (wins week 10)
6. Independence 21.307 (loses week 10)
Tri-Valley 20.05 (loses week 10)
7. Dover 19.8 (wins week 10)
Athens 19.15 (wins week 10)
8. Granville 19.148 (wins week 10)
New Philadelphia 19.048 (loses week 10)
Jackson 18.75 (loses week 10)
Maysville 17.75 (wins week 10)

Prediction as of 10/21/17
#1 Bellefontaine hosts #8 Granville
#2 Hartley hosts #7 Dover
#3 Marion Franklin hosts #6 Independence
#4 Tri-Valley hosts #5 Jackson
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

#1 Bellefontaine (Projected 9-1) L1/10 + L2/10= 47/10 + 246.5/10= 29.35 Projected Average (Approx. 25.75 if Kenton Ridge beats them in week 10)

Week 1-9 L1=42, L2=194
Week 10 L1=5 beat Kenton Ridge (6-3) & gained L2=31 Minus 3.6 from ave. if KR wins

New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 21.5
D4 St. Marys over D3 Wapakoneta (0), if Wa wins (5) Add .5 to ave. if Wa wins
D2 Troy over D3 Piqua (5.5), if Pi wins (0) Minus .55 from ave. if Pi wins
D4 Graham/D4 Jonathan Alder. They beat both (5).
D5 Indian Lake over D4 Ben Logan. They beat both (5). Minus .05 if BL wins
D4 Shawnee over D2 Tecumseh. They beat both (6). Minus .1 if Te wins
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

#2 Independence (Projected 8-1) L1/9 + L2/8.8= 43.5/10 + 198/8.8 = 26.85 Projected Average (Approx. 21.307 if Walnut Ridge beats them in week 10)

Week 1-9 L1= 37.5, L2= 138.5
Week 10 L1=6 beat Walnut Ridge (8-0) & gained L2= 43.5 Minus 5.543 from ave. if FH wins

New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 16
D5 Johnstown over D5 Heath (4.5), if Hea wins (4.5), Minus .511 from ave. if Hea wins
D3 Hartley over D3 St. Charles (0), if StC wins (5.5), Add .625 to ave. if StC wins
D2 Briggs/D2 West (6). They beat both.
D3 Eastmoor over D6 Africentric (0); if Af wins (4), Add .455 to ave if Af wins
D3 Marion Franklin over D3 South (5.5); if So wins (0), Minus .625 from ave if So wins
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

#3 Hartley (Projected 9-1) L1/10 + L2/10= 51.5/10 +192.5/10 = 24.4 Projected Average

Week 1-9 L1= 45.5, L2= 176.5
Week 10 L1=6 beat St. Charles (1-8) & gained L2= 5.5

New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 10.5
D1 Marysville over D1 Central Crossing (0); if CC wins (6.5), Add .65 to ave. if CC wins
D1 Lorain over D3 Shaw (0); if Shaw wins (6.5), Add .65 to ave. if Shaw wins
D3 Jackson over D2 Chillicothe (0); if Chilli wins (5.5), Add .55 to ave. if Chilli wins
D1 Jerome over D2 Kilbourne (0); if Kil wins (6.5), Add .65 to ave. if Kil wins
D3 DeSales/D3 Watterson (5.5). They beat both.
D5 Ready over D4 Bexley (5); if Bex wins (0), Minus .5 from aver if Bex wins
D1 Jackson over D2 Hoover (0); if Hoo wins (6.5), Add .65 to ave. if Hoo wins
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

#4 Marion Franklin (Projected 8-2) L1/10 + L2/9.6= 45/10 + 187/9.6 = 23.979 Projected Average

Week 1-9 L1=39.5 , L2=159
Week 10 L1=5.5 beat South (3-5) & gained L2= 12.5

New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 15.5
D1 Marysville over D1 Central Crossing (0); if CC wins (6.5), Add .677 to ave. if CC wins
D3 Beechcroft over D2 Northland (5.5); if Nor wins (0), Minus .573 to ave. if Nor wins
D3 Jackson over D2 Chillicothe (0); if Chilli wins (5.5), Add .573 to ave. if Chilli wins
D3 Eastmoor over D6 Africentric (4). They beat both. Add .156 if Af wins
D2 Briggs/D2 West (6). They beat both.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

#5 Tri-Valley (Projected 9-1) L1/10 + L2/10= 45/10 + 194/10=23.9 Projected Ave. (Approx. 20.05 if Maysville beats them in week 10)

Week 1-9 L1= 39.5, L2= 142.5
Week 10 L1=5.5 beat Maysville (7-2) & gained L2= 32 Minus 3.75 from ave. if Ma wins

New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 19.5
D3 Zanesville over D3 Marietta (5.5), if Mar wins (0); Minus .55 from ave. if Mar wins
D3 Sheridan over D4 Morgan; TV beat both (5), if Mo wins (5.5) Add .05 to ave. if Mo wins
D4 John Glenn over D6 Crooksville; TV beat both (4), if Cr wins (5) Add .1 to ave. if Cr wins
D4 Philo/D4 New Lex. They beat both (5).
D7 Monroe Central over D5 West M (0); if WM wins (3.5) Add .35 to ave. if WM wins

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

#6 Jackson (Projected 9-1) L1/10 + L2/10= 47.5/10 + 185/10 = 23.25 Projected Average (Approx. 18.75 if Chillicothe beats them in week 10)

Week 1-9 L1= 41.5, L2= 126
Week 10 L1=6 beat Chillicothe (7-2) & gained L2= 39 Minus 4.5 from ave. if Chilli wins

New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 20
D5 Wellston over D4 Vinton County (5); if VC wins (0), Minus .5 from ave. if VC wins
D5 Liberty Union over D4 Fairfield Union (0); if FU wins (4.5), Add .45 to ave. if FU wins
D4 Gallia Academy over D5 South Point (4.5), if SP wins (0), Minus .45 from ave. if SP wins
D4 Batavia over D2 Western Brown (0); if WB wins (5), Add .5 to ave. if WB wins
D4 Washington over D3 Miami Trace (5.5); They beat both. Minus .5 if MT wins
D3 Hillsboro over D4 McClain (5); They beat both. Add .5 if Mc wins
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
#7 Dover (Projected 7-3) L1/10 + L2/10= 39/10 + 159/10 = 19.8 Projected Average

Week 1-9 L1=33.5 , L2=94
Week 10 L1=5.5 beat New Philadelphia (8-1) & gained L2= 42 Minus 4.75 from ave. if NP wins

New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 23
D3 JFK over D1 John Marshall (6.5); if JM wins (0), Minus .65 from ave. if JM wins
D2 Lake over D2 Green (6); if Gr wins (0), Minus .6 from ave. if Gr wins
D3 Zanesville/ D3 Marietta (5.5). They beat both.
D4 Cambridge over D4 Meadowbrook (5), if Mea wins (0) Minus .5 from ave. if Mea wins
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

#8 New Philadelphia (Projected 8-2) L1/10 + L2/10= 42/10 + 147/9.9 = 19.048 Projected Average (Approx. 22.982 if NP beats Dover in week 10)

Week 1-9 L1=42, L2=132.5
Week 10 L1=0 Lose to Dover (6-3). Dover has L2=33.5 Add 3.934 to ave. if NP wins

New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 14.5
D4 Indian Valley over D4 Claymont (0), if Cl wins (5) Add .5 to ave. if CF wins
D2 Mount Vernon over D3 West Holmes (0); if WH wins (6), Add .6 to ave. if WH wins
D4 Northwest over D6 Loudenville (4); if Lou wins (0), Minus .4 from ave. if Lou wins
D3 Hartley over D2 St. Charles (0); if StC wins (5.5), Add .55 to ave. if StC wins
D5 CCC over D7 Farrell PA (cancelled game). Changes NP L2 divisor.
D3 Zanesville/ D3 Marietta (5.5). They beat both.
D4 Cambridge over D4 Meadowbrook (5), if Mea wins (0) Minus .5 from ave. if Mea wins

-----------------------------------------------------------------------
#9 Granville (Projected 8-1) L1/10 + L2/9.9= 43.5/10 + 146.5/9.9=19.148 Projected Average
Week 1-9 L1=37.5, L2=120.5
Week 10 L1=6 Watkins Memorial beat (2-7) gained L2=11 Minus 1.711 if WM wins

New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 15.5
D3 Hamilton Township over D4 Circleville (5); if Cir wins (0), Minus .505 if Cir wins
D3 Zanesville over D3 Marietta (5.5), if Mar wins (0); Minus .556 from ave. if Mar wins
D3 Beechcroft over D2 Northland (0), if Nor wins (5.5); Add .556 to ave. if Nor wins
D4 Lakewood/D4 Utica (5). They beat both.
D6 Newark Catholic over D5 Northridge (0), if Northridge wins (4); Add .404 to ave. if Northridge wins
D4 Licking Valley over D2 Licking Heights (0), if LH wins (5) Add .505 to ave. if LH wins
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
#10 Athens (Projected 9-1) L1/10 + L2/10=45/10 + 146.5/10 = 19.15 Projected Average

Week 1-9 L1=41 , L2=91
Week 10 L1=4 beat NelsonvilleYork (9-0) & gained L2=40.5

New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 15

D2 Logan over D3 Warren Local (5.5); if WL wins (6),Add ..05 to ave. if WL wins. Athens beat both.
D3 Granville over D3 Watkins Memorial (0); if WM wins (5.5), Add .55 if WM wins.
D4 Meigs over D5 Alexander (4.5); if Al wins (5), Minus .05 from ave. if Meigs wins. Athens beat both.
D5 Wellston over D4 Vinton County (5); if VC wins (4.5), Minus .05 from ave. if VC wins. Athens beat both.
D4 Waverly over D5 River Valley (0) ; If RV wins (5), Add .5 to ave. if RV wins
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
#11 Maysville (Projected 8-2) L1/10 + L2/10= 37.5/10 + 139.5/10 = 17.7 Projected Ave. (Beats Tri-Valley)

Week 1-9 L1= 32, L2= 85.5
Week 10 L1=5.5 beat Tri-Valley (8-1) & gained L2= 39.5

New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 14.5
D5 Coshocton over D4 RiverView (5), if RV wins (0), Minus ,5 if RV wins
D6 Newark Catholic over D5 Northridge (4.5), if Nor wins (0); Minus .45 from ave. if Nor wins
D3 Sheridan over D4 Morgan (0), if Mo wins (5.5) Add .55 to ave. if Mo wins
D4 John Glenn over D6 Crooksville (0), if Cr wins (5) Add .5 to ave. if Cr wins
D4 Philo/D4 New Lex. They beat both (5).
D7 Monroe Central over D5 West M (0); if WM wins (3.5) Add .35 to ave. if WM wins

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

According to Joe Eitel, Max win out for the following is:
Beechcroft 17.2687
Buckeye Valley 17.6399
DeSales 17.6944
Eastmoor 18.0423
They may not be mathematically eliminated, but they aren’t going to make the top 8.

Last edited by teach1coach2; 10-24-17 at 02:07 PM.
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  #13  
Old 10-23-17, 05:15 PM
AHM AHM is offline
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The Jackson Chillicothe game plays a huge role in seeds 5-9 and that game is going to be way to close to call
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  #14  
Old 10-23-17, 10:54 PM
teach1coach2 teach1coach2 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TriangleMan View Post
Canton CC is not playing their scheduled week 10 game against Farrell (PA), who cancelled for the second consecutive year. Canton CC has picked up a week 10 game vs. Oil City (PA), but if it was not scheduled prior to 10/1 (likely) it would not count toward any computer points. Sorry for no possible additional L2 points from CC, but NPs final L2 divisor should eventually be 99.
I emailed Joe Eitel and he confirmed that TriangleMan is correct. CCC's game in week 10 against Oil City will not count toward the Harbin points system.
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  #15  
Old 10-24-17, 05:02 AM
Hammerdrill Hammerdrill is offline
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So then New Philly with a loss, drops to #10. Why is Athens listed behind Granville, but has a higher "guesstimate"? 19.5 vs 19.48?
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Old 10-24-17, 05:26 AM
TMEW TMEW is offline
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Is there anyway that Dover finish higher then the 7th seed? Drew pastur listed Dover as not making it even with a win
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Old 10-24-17, 05:50 AM
Hammerdrill Hammerdrill is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TMEW View Post
Is there anyway that Dover finish higher then the 7th seed? Drew pastur listed Dover as not making it even with a win
They have a 2% chance to be a 6th seed, 5% to be a 7, and 9% to be an 8th.
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Old 10-24-17, 08:37 AM
tb81 tb81 is offline
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Dover will beat New Philly by a couple of scores but it won't be enough to move ahead of Philly in the final rankings unless there are some upsets. Cleveland JFK should win but Lake and Wooster will both lose on the road. Philly should get victories from both West Holmes and Northwest.

Dover will finish with 39 first level and 148 second level points/100
New Philly will finish with 42 first level and 148 second level points/99

That said finishing 8th in the region works out much better because both Philly and Dover will lose badly at Columbus Hartley who is locked in at number 2.
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Old 10-24-17, 08:47 AM
FootballFan1795 FootballFan1795 is offline
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Originally Posted by Hammerdrill View Post
So then New Philly with a loss, drops to #10. Why is Athens listed behind Granville, but has a higher "guesstimate"? 19.5 vs 19.48?
The original analysis contained a calculation error. Athens' Week 10 L1 points (4) were not added to their Weeks 1-9 L1 points (41), but the issue has since been corrected.
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Old 10-24-17, 08:52 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TMEW View Post
Is there anyway that Dover finish higher then the 7th seed? Drew pastur listed Dover as not making it even with a win
Drew Pasteur hasn't updated since Saturday night.
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Old 10-24-17, 11:19 AM
Hammerdrill Hammerdrill is offline
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Originally Posted by FootballFan1795 View Post
The original analysis contained a calculation error. Athens' Week 10 L1 points (4) were not added to their Weeks 1-9 L1 points (41), but the issue has since been corrected.
I am referring to the updated version he posted.
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  #22  
Old 10-24-17, 11:32 AM
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At the end of the weekend, I see these 8 teams getting in:
Bellefontaine
Bishop Hartley
Marion-Franklin
Independence
Tri-Valley
Granville
New Philadelphia (even with a loss to Dover)
Jackson (even with a loss to Chillicothe)

The 8th spot will be very close. Athens could get in by beating NY, or Dover could snag it with extra L2 help (such as a win from Lake, Wooster, or Cambridge. A Cambridge win would also give New Philadelphia extra breathing room.)
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Old 10-24-17, 12:06 PM
FootballFan1795 FootballFan1795 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hammerdrill View Post
I am referring to the updated version he posted.
Yes, the updated version should show Athens at #8.
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Old 10-24-17, 01:17 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr. Slippery View Post
At the end of the weekend, I see these 8 teams getting in:
Bellefontaine
Bishop Hartley
Marion-Franklin
Independence
Tri-Valley
Granville
New Philadelphia (even with a loss to Dover)
Jackson (even with a loss to Chillicothe)

The 8th spot will be very close. Athens could get in by beating NY, or Dover could snag it with extra L2 help (such as a win from Lake, Wooster, or Cambridge. A Cambridge win would also give New Philadelphia extra breathing room.)
On the Dover-Phila thread, someone mentioned that he thought Meadowbrook would probably win. So, I worked out the following scenario:

If Meadowbrook and Dover win (and Jackson loses), and Lake or Wooster wins, Dover could sneak in at #8:

1. 29.8500 Bellefontaine wins
2. 28.5833 Independence wins (If loses, moves to #5 and Tri-Valley moves to #4)
3. 27.5500 Bishop Hartley wins
4. 25.4375 Marion-Franklin wins
5. 24.4000 Tri-Valley wins
6. 20.6631 Granville wins
7. 20.3000 Athens wins
8. 19.3000 Dover wins (and Lake or Wooster wins)
9. 19.1495 Phila loses (West Holmes and Northwest win)
10. 18.7500 Jackson loses
11. 18.0423 Eastmoor Academy wins
12. 17.6944 St. Francis DeSales wins

Jackson loses: L1/10 + L2/10 = 41.5/10 + 146/10 = 18.75 Projected Average.
Week 1-9 L1 = 41.5, L2 = 126
Jackson's new Week 10 L2 from previous wins should = 20, not 24.
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Old 10-24-17, 01:37 PM
Raider6309 Raider6309 is offline
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That 6-10 is all close. All around 19.
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Old 10-24-17, 01:53 PM
Hammerdrill Hammerdrill is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FootballFan1795 View Post
On the Dover-Phila thread, someone mentioned that he thought Meadowbrook would probably win. So, I worked out the following scenario:

If Meadowbrook and Dover win (and Jackson loses), and Lake or Wooster wins, Dover could sneak in at #8:

1. 29.8500 Bellefontaine wins
2. 28.5833 Independence wins (If loses, moves to #5 and Tri-Valley moves to #4)
3. 27.5500 Bishop Hartley wins
4. 25.4375 Marion-Franklin wins
5. 24.4000 Tri-Valley wins
6. 20.6631 Granville wins
7. 20.3000 Athens wins
8. 19.3000 Dover wins (and Lake or Wooster wins)
9. 19.1495 Phila loses (West Holmes and Northwest win)
10. 18.7500 Jackson loses
11. 18.0423 Eastmoor Academy wins
12. 17.6944 St. Francis DeSales wins

Jackson loses: L1/10 + L2/10 = 41.5/10 + 146/10 = 18.75 Projected Average.
Week 1-9 L1 = 41.5, L2 = 126
Jackson's new Week 10 L2 from previous wins should = 20, not 24.
It looks like you are using some "max win out" numbers. A team typically cannot get to their max due to the fact that some of the teams they beat, will play each other. So if you play in a league probably more than half of your schedule will play each other.
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  #27  
Old 10-24-17, 02:03 PM
teach1coach2 teach1coach2 is offline
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Hammerdrill,
I do not expect Athens to win in week 10 over Nelsonville. That "guessimation" is with a win for Athens (Raider6309 still has hope for that to happen.)

I posted all the info so folks who think I am wrong about a pick can see how it affects the overall ordered list. Also gives people a chance to check my math.
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  #28  
Old 10-24-17, 02:06 PM
teach1coach2 teach1coach2 is offline
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Footballfan,
yes that should be 20 instead of 24. Must just be a typo because when I add it up with 20, it comes out the total L2 I already have listed there.
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  #29  
Old 10-24-17, 02:15 PM
FootballFan1795 FootballFan1795 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hammerdrill View Post
It looks like you are using some "max win out" numbers. A team typically cannot get to their max due to the fact that some of the teams they beat, will play each other. So if you play in a league probably more than half of your schedule will play each other.
Yes, for ease of calculation, I used some 'max win out' numbers, particularly for the 1-5 positions. Regardless of the numbers I used, IMO, the positioning will stay about the same as the 'max win out' numbers would indicate.

Maybe I could go back and not use the 'max win out' numbers for Granville and Athens. At the time, I was more interested in looking at the scenario involving Dover, Lake or Wooster, Phila, Jackson, and Meadowbrook because of a comment made in another thread.
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Old 10-24-17, 02:17 PM
FootballFan1795 FootballFan1795 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by teach1coach2 View Post
Footballfan,
yes that should be 20 instead of 24. Must just be a typo because when I add it up with 20, it comes out the total L2 I already have listed there.
Yes, I had noticed that the total was correct.
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