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  #1  
Old 10-28-18, 04:42 AM
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Lancermania Lancermania is offline
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State Meet DI Boys Predictions

I'm calling for the upset here. I believe Mason pulls it off and beats the defending champs Hudson who return five of their top seven by a mere two points in the high 60s to low 70s. I see St. Xavier third and Davidson fourth. I just don't think that Xavier or Davidson will make the podium. I see Hudson and Mason near locks for the top two spots with single digits separating the two.
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  #2  
Old 10-28-18, 09:01 AM
EuclidandViren EuclidandViren is offline
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Lancermania I like your predictions.

Mason and St. X performed and executed very well at the regional meet, as usual.

Mason #4 was 16:14 and #5 was 16:20= 24th place overall.

St. Xavier #4 was 16:17 and #5 was 16:30=29 place overall.

Very close which can be many, many points at the state meet. About 1 point per second at the state meet and sometimes more than a point per second.

Davidson #5 was well over 17:00 at the regional.
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  #3  
Old 10-28-18, 09:27 AM
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I remember some coaches from Cincinnati saying years ago that around 100 points usually puts you in contention at state, not this year. Two teams being that close with those low scores would be highly unusual. Hudson and Mason will dominate this meet. I don't see any other team under 100 points.
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  #4  
Old 10-28-18, 10:31 AM
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My dark horse in this race is St. Xavier. Early in the year Joe Dogan was their top runner. He was 7th at Tiffin Carnival as X's first man, yet he was not a scorer at the regional meet at Troy last Saturday. He barely broke 17:00 where early in the season he was low 16s. Go Joe! This is your senior year and last race. Leave your legacy to tell your kids about. Get up there and run with Joe Hoak like you did early in the year and St. Xavier could beat Mason's best team like they did at the Moeller Prime Time meet.
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Old 10-28-18, 12:17 PM
Qualifer17 Qualifer17 is offline
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I agree. I’ve had Mason ahead of Hudson for a lot of the season. I expected more from Beuchler and he disappointed. Manley and Russo have stepped up but I still think Mason will pull it out.

Individually, Conant Smith should be the favorite. Vincent Mauri will for sure be in the arguement. If Conant runs like he usually does and makes it close the entire time, I could see an upset. Perhaps an upset by Elliott Cook.

I love this field. I’m taking Conant, but I believe Cook, Duvall, Harr, Mauri, and Coppoloe are way to good to descredit. Burkett, Harris, Schroff, Bronson, Hill, Johanssen. I love this field and there will be some incredibly good runners who are left out of the podium. Should be a great one.
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  #6  
Old 10-28-18, 12:59 PM
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At first I thought that history was against Hudson because it was hard to go back to back. When I checked I was amazed how many DI program have gone back to back. Here is the list since the state increased the distance to 5k back in 1982.

Elder 1988, 1989
Southview 1991, 1992
St. Ignatius 1993, 1994
Northmont 1995, 1996
La Salle 2005, 2006
St. Xavier 2012. 2013
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  #7  
Old 10-28-18, 02:25 PM
CC Track Fan CC Track Fan is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Qualifer17 View Post

I love this field. Im taking Conant, but I believe Cook, Duvall, Harr, Mauri, and Coppoloe are way to good to descredit. Burkett, Harris, Schroff, Bronson, Hill, Johanssen. I love this field and there will be some incredibly good runners who are left out of the podium. Should be a great one.
He did not show up at the start line in Tiffin. w/o him the team finished last. Tried to find someone from Defiance to ask why but didn't find anyone.
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  #8  
Old 10-28-18, 02:46 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Qualifer17 View Post
I agree. I’ve had Mason ahead of Hudson for a lot of the season. I expected more from Beuchler and he disappointed. Manley and Russo have stepped up but I still think Mason will pull it out.

Individually, Conant Smith should be the favorite. Vincent Mauri will for sure be in the arguement. If Conant runs like he usually does and makes it close the entire time, I could see an upset. Perhaps an upset by Elliott Cook.

I love this field. I’m taking Conant, but I believe Cook, Duvall, Harr, Mauri, and Coppoloe are way to good to descredit. Burkett, Harris, Schroff, Bronson, Hill, Johanssen. I love this field and there will be some incredibly good runners who are left out of the podium. Should be a great one.
End of the day, Smith and Mauri are the class of the boys DI individual field.

I'll add Moore to your list. He was visibly ill yesterday during the race at Boardman. As a point of reference, Moore is 1-2 vs. Copploe and Manley this year (won at Boardman but was beaten at Strongsville and yesterday) and was 5-10 seconds ahead of Harr both times they raced (Ashland and Boardman).
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  #9  
Old 10-28-18, 03:00 PM
Qualifer17 Qualifer17 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CC Track Fan View Post
He did not show up at the start line in Tiffin. w/o him the team finished last. Tried to find someone from Defiance to ask why but didn't find anyone.
It took me a second go around through the results to catch it. Wow. Surprised I missed something as big as that.
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  #10  
Old 10-28-18, 03:01 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr. Slippery View Post
End of the day, Smith and Mauri are the class of the boys DI individual field.

I'll add Moore to your list. He was visibly ill yesterday during the race at Boardman. As a point of reference, Moore is 1-2 vs. Copploe and Manley this year (won at Boardman but was beaten at Strongsville and yesterday) and was 5-10 seconds ahead of Harr both times they raced (Ashland and Boardman).
I agree. Smith and Mauri are ahead of the field but that goes without saying, anything could happen. Moore can definetly be thrown in the mix. Hope hes doing well. Great season for the sophomore
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  #11  
Old 10-29-18, 08:10 PM
OVTC OVTC is offline
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Ohio State Meet Nov. 3, 2019 Div. 1 Boys

Hudson 62
Mason 65
St. X 90
Hill. Davidson 192
Centerville 205
Miamisburg 227
St. Ignatius 248
Massilon Jackson 259
Gahanna Lincoln 264
Ashland 271
Pickerington 299
Kings 326
Olentangy Liberty 331
Perrysburg 339
Whitmer 339
Medina 369
Kenston 386
University School 413
Lancaster 443
Louisville 446

Last edited by OVTC; 10-30-18 at 09:05 AM..
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  #12  
Old 10-29-18, 08:27 PM
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Can't see 2 teams dominating a 20-team field to the tune of scoring in the 60s.
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  #13  
Old 10-29-18, 08:46 PM
Runningfast Runningfast is offline
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I am really excited to see this race unfold. Both Mason and Hudson have looked strong. Mason has been a little more consistent, IMO, but Hudson has the "been there, done that" factor. They also have two returners who were on the on the podium last year and have respective track credentials of 4:13 and 9:08 (For comparison, Mason's top guy has a 3200 pr of 9:52.) Both teams are extremely well coached and a have long history of success on the biggest stage. This will be fun to watch.

St. Xavier is a bit of a darkhorse, I think. They defeated Mason by 3 in the season opener at Moeller and lost by 9 at regionals. Their top five time was only 19 seconds slower than Mason's. I doubt they'll be 75 points back at state as your predictions show. We'll see, though.
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  #14  
Old 10-30-18, 07:17 AM
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Merged the two threads.
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  #15  
Old 10-30-18, 09:08 AM
OVTC OVTC is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr. Slippery View Post
Can't see 2 teams dominating a 20-team field to the tune of scoring in the 60s.
You've convinced me to add a third team to the domination mix. I changed X's predicted score from 140 to 90, so now we have three teams under 100. History is about to be made.
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  #16  
Old 10-30-18, 02:37 PM
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Lancermania Lancermania is offline
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Media Credentials

i get media credentials for this meet because it's my job to watch all the qualifiers from the VOA district meet. I decided to put down OVTC as a stringer and go up with him. If fact, I'm staying overnight with him on Friday where he lives in Liberty Township to get an earlier start since I live in Price Hill.
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  #17  
Old 10-30-18, 04:09 PM
Xccat1600 Xccat1600 is offline
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Team Title

No way one let alone two teams score in the 60's in a 20 team field. Only 3 D1 teams scored below 70 points (low 60's not sure exactly), and 2015 Ignatius - arguably 3 of the greatest Ohio teams ever. Hudson and Mason this year are good but not in that class and adding 4 teams to the field drives up point totals - see 2016 Solon.
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  #18  
Old 10-30-18, 05:19 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OVTC View Post
You've convinced me to add a third team to the domination mix. I changed X's predicted score from 140 to 90, so now we have three teams under 100. History is about to be made.
I was aiming to sway you in the opposite direction.
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  #19  
Old 10-30-18, 06:12 PM
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I will pick Hudson over Mason this Saturday! Go Explorers!
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  #20  
Old 11-01-18, 03:06 PM
xcfan3451 xcfan3451 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lancermania View Post
I'm calling for the upset here. I believe Mason pulls it off and beats the defending champs Hudson who return five of their top seven by a mere two points in the high 60s to low 70s. I see St. Xavier third and Davidson fourth. I just don't think that Xavier or Davidson will make the podium. I see Hudson and Mason near locks for the top two spots with single digits separating the two.
I think the state meet getting postponed is a MAJOR blow for Mason. This Mason team reminds me a lot of the 2015 Mason team. That is: they both run great in the mud. If the state meet in 2015 was muddy, Mason would have pulled off the victory, believe that. They have to hope the state meet next weekend is still muddy or they can kiss their title chances goodbye.
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  #21  
Old 11-01-18, 03:08 PM
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Given their history in swimming, I would've favored St. X. on Saturday.
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  #22  
Old 11-01-18, 03:40 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xcfan3451 View Post
I think the state meet getting postponed is a MAJOR blow for Mason. This Mason team reminds me a lot of the 2015 Mason team. That is: they both run great in the mud. If the state meet in 2015 was muddy, Mason would have pulled off the victory, believe that. They have to hope the state meet next weekend is still muddy or they can kiss their title chances goodbye.
They got beat at every man. They still would have lost mud or no mud. Wasn't it 30 points or something they lost by? come on.
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Old 11-01-18, 07:34 PM
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Originally Posted by psycho_dad View Post
They got beat at every man. They still would have lost mud or no mud. Wasn't it 30 points or something they lost by? come on.
You are right Iggy's dominated them that year - I don't think mud is the issue. This postponement still favors Xavier and Hudson IMO. Look at Mason's results historically at NXR a week after state. They perform DRASTICALLY WORSE at NXR than they do at State. Pushing back the meet a week later will expose this weakness. As Lou Holtz says, "You always have to prepare for the obstacles that are going to come. Consequently, when they do come, it doesn't affect you mentally near as much as when you're unprepared for them." I hope Mason has heeded to the advice of Coach Holtz, otherwise it's all Explorers or Bombers IMO
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