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  #1  
Old 03-08-17, 06:49 PM
bdhof bdhof is offline
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NCAA Forecast 2017

Here it is, right off the press.

The Quick
Using the scoring system, PSU, as expected, leads the pack with 113 points, then OkS with 104, OSU with 90.5 and Iowa with 74.

The Question
Suriano received a 3 seed, which is worth 13.5 points. If he is unable to contribute, that knocks PSU down below OkS at 99.5.

The Top Four by Seeds
PSU
125 3
133
141 Q
149 1
157 1
165 3
174 5
184 2
197 5
285 5

OkS
125 8
133 3
141 1
149 2
157 5
165 9
174 7
184 4
197 6
285 6

OSU
125 Q
133 1
141 12
149 4
157
165 Q
174 3
184 6
197 3
285 1

IOWA
125 1
133 4
141 Q
149 5
157 2
165 Q
174 11
184 3
197 Q
285
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  #2  
Old 03-08-17, 07:01 PM
bdhof bdhof is offline
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What has to happen?
To answer that question, you need to look at the scoring system. Here's the placement points for 1-8 and for R12 (round of 12) and R16 (round of 16).

1st 20
2nd 16
3rd 13.5
4th 12.5
5th 10
6th 9
7th 6.5
8th 5.5
R12 2
R16 1.5

To make up 13.5 points on OkS, we need to wrestle above our seeds or hope they wrestle below their seeds. Bonus points can make up for a deficit or increase a deficit. Based on last year's NCAAs, I believe OkS will score less bonus points than OSU, because they just don't have the hammers that OSU has - guys that can bonus up to or thru the semis. Here's OkS's lineup again, along with their current rankings by Flo, IM, TOM, TW and WIN:

OkS
125 8 (8, 9, 8, 9, 10)
133 3 (consensus 3)
141 1 (consensus 1)
149 2 (consensus 2)
157 5 (6, 5, 5, 6, 6)
165 9 (11, 10, 10, 11, 10)
174 7 (7, 9, 8, 7, 7)
184 4 (6, 5, 4, 4, 4)
197 6 (7, 7, 7, 6, 6)
285 6 (consensus 6)

I would argue, based on rankings, that all 10 OkS wrestlers were seeded at their peak performance and have potential for downside. Even their consensus ranked guys like Heil, Collica and Schafer are not locks on their seeds.

To be continued...

Next up, PSU.

Last edited by bdhof; 03-08-17 at 07:51 PM.
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  #3  
Old 03-08-17, 07:33 PM
BuckeyeFan94 BuckeyeFan94 is offline
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OSU has some tough draws, Micah has Sorensen in qtr and retherford in semi. Tomasello has richards in same qtr, and Clark in semi. My Mar with brooks in qtr and nickal in semi.
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Old 03-08-17, 07:51 PM
bdhof bdhof is offline
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PSU has the Suriano problem. If he's 100% then I think it is a reach for anyone to catch them. But he's not 100%. Will he go on the mat and give it a try? Probably, but so did Hunter Steiber. I don't see him getting on the podium, and based on this I see PSU starting at 99.5 and not 113. Here's their seeds and rankings.

PSU
125 3 (2, 6, 2, 10, 6)
133
141 Q (17, 20, 18, NR, 17)
149 1 (consensus 1)
157 1 (consensus 1)
165 3 (consensus 3)
174 5 (4, 5, 4, 5, 5)
184 2 (2, 2, 2, 3, 2)
197 5 (consensus 5)
285 5 (4, 4, 3, 4, 4)

PSU does not show the same downside per the rankings like OkS does, and they are the most dominant bonus team. That's why I'd pick them as the favorite, but favorites don't always win, Just ask PSU about the B10. I think their best chance for downside is McCutcheon at 197. He hasn't lost to anyone who is suspect this year, but he has numerous close bouts with people I've never heard of.

To be continued...

Next up, Iowa.

Last edited by bdhof; 03-08-17 at 08:35 PM.
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  #5  
Old 03-08-17, 08:02 PM
bdhof bdhof is offline
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Iowa
125 1 (consensus 1)
133 4 (4, 4, 4, 5, 4)
141 Q (18, NR, 20, NR, NR)
149 5 (consensus 5)
157 2 (consensus 2)
165 Q (NR, NR, 17, NR, NR)
174 11 (10, 11, 12, 11, 13)
184 3 (3, 3, 3, 2, 3)
197 Q (consensus NR)
285

As far as winning a title, it isn't going to happen for Iowa. They could have a strong tourny and OSU or OkS could stumble and maybe they sneak in at 3rd. But more likely, they're battling VT for 4th.

To be continued...

Next up, OSU.
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  #6  
Old 03-08-17, 08:30 PM
bdhof bdhof is offline
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When OSU is chasing two teams, as they are in OkS and PSU, it gets more difficult because not only do you have to over perform, but two teams may need to under perform. OSU had a great victory last week and over performed by 18 points. That more than made up for the 13 point deficit they faced heading into the tournament. However, they needed a PSU under performance to clinch it due to PSU's bonus advantage. PSU obliged and uner performed. Here's their seeds and rankings:

OSU
125 Q (NR, 19, 14, NR, NR)
133 1 (consensus 1)
141 12 (12, 13, 11, 13, 13)
149 4 (3, 4, 4, 4, 4)
157
165 Q (consensus NR)
174 3 (consensus 3)
184 6 (4, 6, 5, 4, 5)
197 3 (3, 3, 2, 2, 3)
285 1 (consensus 1)

To start with, OSU needs to close the bonus gap with PSU (11.5 at B10s). If they do that, I think they make up ground on OkS, as I see them as inferior to both OSU and PSU in bonus production. Then they need to get some points out of non placers, likely 125, 141 and 165. I'll state here that Pletcher's too small for 141 because every time I say that he wins. They'll each likely get at least one chance to wrestle a non seeded guy, and need to take advantage of it. And then the hammers have to be hammers. I think Micah could go as high as 3, I think Bo can win it all, I could see MyMar at 2 or 3, and Moore at 2. A lot of those things need to happen if PSU and OkS don't stumble. And I see OkS more likely to stumble than PSU.

The bottom line is, all you can ask for is to be in the hunt, and we are. Bring it home again, Bucks.
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  #7  
Old 03-08-17, 10:50 PM
wrestling125 wrestling125 is offline
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OSU Projections
125: Jose Rodriguez- Known to have trouble making 125; first match against Terao is tough. I expect Jose to go 0-2, but could possibly steal a win on the backside.
133: I believe Nato will see Parker in the quarter, not Richards. Either way I think he will be okay. He will either have Clark or Micic in the semis. I think Nato takes it either way, but it will not be easy. I really hope he does not see Gross in the finals. Gross can put up points on anybody. I persdonally take the field over Nato, but only time will tell.
141: Pletcher will lose to Ashnault, and will probably see Carton on the backside, and then Gasca. I like him in both of those matches. That gives him Ward/Meredith in the R12. Definitely the underdog but it can be done. I would rather have Pletcher see Ward.
149: Terrible draw. A lot can happen here. I personally like Sorensen to win this quarter on the big stage.
165: Burcher can pull an upset, but I do not see him winning a match.
174: very tough quarter against a very dangerous Preisch. If he can get through him, I like him in a rematch against Realbuto. I think Bo falls to Valencia in the finals.
184: Tough draw with Brooks in the quarters; this gives him Nate Jackson/Jack Dechow in the R12. Hopefully it is Jackson.
197: Should be able to handle Weigel in the quarters. Better than having Studebaker. I think he gets Pfarr again, but loses to J'den in the finals.
285: 1st
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  #8  
Old 03-15-17, 03:26 PM
bdhof bdhof is offline
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Time to dust off the ol' forecast.

At 1:44 PM today the team totals, not counting bonus points, was as follows for the top four teams:

1 PSU 113
2 OkS 104
3 OSU 90.5
4 IOWA 74

Then at 1:45 PM the team totals looked like this:

1 OkS 104
2 PSU 99.5
3 OSU 90.5
4 IOWA 74

PSU's star 125 Suriano, seeded #3, will not be competing, taking 13.5 points from the expected total from PSU. In my initial forecast I laid out the scenario that Suraino would either not compete, or would compete at less than 100%, making his getting on the podium a challenge.

What does that mean for the other contenders? Well, first off, we need to restate that Iowa is a contender for 3rd or 4th place, not for 1st. They would need an exceptional tournament to catch OSU, and even then would need OSU to struggle to catch the Buckeyes for 3rd. OkS appears to be in the driver's seat, except for two things. First, they are seeded such that their downside is much more likely than their upside. Second, they do not score bonus points at the rate that PSU and OSU do.

So, I still see PSU as our main competition. Even without Suraino, they lead us going in by 9.5 points. That is a manageable deficit, but a deficit nonetheless. And they're likely to score more bonus points than OSU, making the deficit larger. That's the bad news. The good news is that OSU made up a deficit of 13 points, and survived a 11.5 bonus deficit to beat PSU by 9.5 points at the B10s.

OSU can't control what PSU and OkS do, except when we go H2H. So, where can OSU show some upside?

125 Interestingly, OSU's 125 could go a long way towards making up that deficit. He happens to be in Suraino's 1/4 bracket, so taking out the #3 seed softens things up considerably. He would have to wrestle like he did early n the season, with a flash here and there recently. Jose would need to get by #11 Terao, #6 Lizak (whom he beat recently but then got TF'ed), and then #14 Rodriquez from SIUE. Which Jose shows up? Hopefully the good Jose who finished 2nd in the CKLV and looked like an AA contender in November.

133 No upside but #1 Nate would need to hold serve in a tough and balanced field.

141 #12 Pletcher would need a strong tournament to AA, but he has been very solid this year and is right there with the lower tier of the AAs at this weight.

149 It isn't hard imagining #4 Micah getting a 3, but tough seeing him getting past Retherferd.

165 Non seeded Burcher could get a point or two.

174 #3 Jordan looked very good in his finals match at B10. That kind of wrestling could land him a spot in the finals and even on the top of the podium. He lost to #2 Rebalto by a point earlier this year, and Rebalto lost to #1 Valentia by a point. So, there's not a lot separating these guys.

184 #6 Martin can upgrade from here, perhaps as high as 3rd. Although you never when he is going to be at his best.

197 #3 Moore can and did just beat #2 Pfarr, and gave #1 Cox his toughest match of the year. So, yeah. there's upside.

285 #1 Snyder - enough said.

Last edited by bdhof; 03-15-17 at 04:33 PM.
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  #9  
Old 03-15-17, 04:45 PM
bdhof bdhof is offline
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What makes this so interesting, is that most knowledgeable wrestling fans gave OSU no chance following the shellacking that PSU delivered in the Schott. And then PSU looked vulnerable after an injury to Suraino, and more so after OSU's B10 Championship.
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  #10  
Old 03-16-17, 11:35 AM
bdhof bdhof is offline
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Jose Rod gets hammered first round by #11 Terao by MD
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  #11  
Old 03-16-17, 11:45 AM
bdhof bdhof is offline
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Nate wins by MD
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  #12  
Old 03-16-17, 11:55 AM
Cthelites Cthelites is offline
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Looks like good jimmy gulibon has showed up. Crap! Just teched gasca whom pinned him in the B1G
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  #13  
Old 03-16-17, 11:55 AM
bdhof bdhof is offline
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Pletcher wins
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  #14  
Old 03-16-17, 11:56 AM
Cthelites Cthelites is offline
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Dean heil survives big scare 6-5. Was down late in match.
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  #15  
Old 03-16-17, 11:57 AM
Cthelites Cthelites is offline
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Can Jrod win a match or two thru the consis?
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  #16  
Old 03-16-17, 12:02 PM
bdhof bdhof is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cthelites View Post
Can Jrod win a match or two thru the consis?
Should win his next one and then he's got seeded kids
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Old 03-16-17, 12:03 PM
DudeEtude DudeEtude is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cthelites View Post
Looks like good jimmy gulibon has showed up. Crap! Just teched gasca whom pinned him in the B1G
Gonna get a little tougher against Kolodzik next!
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  #18  
Old 03-16-17, 12:11 PM
Ownage Ownage is offline
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Unrelated to Ohio State, Ward from UNC (Moeller) just got pinned. Thats too bad, he got caught through to his back.
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Old 03-16-17, 12:17 PM
Ownage Ownage is offline
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Wow, Micah CRUSHING right now, up 12-3 after the first with 1:05 of riding time
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  #20  
Old 03-16-17, 12:21 PM
bdhof bdhof is offline
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Micah wins by TF
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Old 03-16-17, 01:06 PM
bdhof bdhof is offline
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Burcher gets hammered by #7 Valentia
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Old 03-16-17, 01:13 PM
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Bo looking good, up 5-0 so far
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  #23  
Old 03-16-17, 01:15 PM
bdhof bdhof is offline
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Bo by MD
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  #24  
Old 03-16-17, 01:26 PM
bdhof bdhof is offline
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174 #7 seed Crutchmer goes down in opening round
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Old 03-16-17, 01:26 PM
Cthelites Cthelites is offline
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OkieSt #7 Crutcmer goes down!
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  #26  
Old 03-16-17, 01:45 PM
bdhof bdhof is offline
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MyMar by MD
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  #27  
Old 03-16-17, 01:51 PM
bdhof bdhof is offline
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Moore by MD
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  #28  
Old 03-16-17, 01:53 PM
Cthelites Cthelites is offline
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Seems like tosu gets majors and osu gets techs and pins.
Moore was killing it and seemed to just coast to keep his major.
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  #29  
Old 03-16-17, 02:00 PM
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Snyder by TF
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Old 03-16-17, 02:21 PM
DudeEtude DudeEtude is offline
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PSU - 16.0
OkSU - 15.0
tOSU - 14.0
Iowa - 12.0
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